nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2013‒08‒16
one paper chosen by
Laura Vici
Universita' di Bologna

  1. Does Tourism Predict Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries? By Paresh Kumar Narayan; Susan S Sharma; Deepa Bannigidadmath

  1. By: Paresh Kumar Narayan (Deakin University); Susan S Sharma (Deakin University); Deepa Bannigidadmath (Deakin University)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs—one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.
    Keywords: Tourism; Macroeconomic variables; GDP; Money Supply; Panel Data; Predictive Regression Model.

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