| Abstract: |
In this paper we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in
Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG,
Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs—one full panel of six
countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the
panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework,
where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict
macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of
countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and
money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP. |