nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2012‒05‒08
five papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Different tourists to different destinations. Evidence from spatial interaction models By Emanuela Marrocu; Raffaele Paci
  2. Determinants of tourist expenditure: a review of microeconometric models By Brida, Juan Gabriel; Scuderi, Raffaele
  3. Cultural investment, local development and instantaneous social capital: A case study of a gathering festival in the South of Italy By Attanasi, Giuseppe; Casoria, Fortuna; Centorrino, Samuele; Urso, Giulia
  4. Forecasting demand for high speed rail By Börjesson , Maria
  5. Contingent valuation of a classic cycling race By Vekeman, Andy; Meulders, Michel; Praet, Alain; colpaert, Jan; Van Puyenbroeck, Tom

  1. By: Emanuela Marrocu; Raffaele Paci
    Abstract: As tourism is becoming one of the most important sources of economic growth at the local level, it is imperative to identify and assess the relevant determinants of tourism flows. This paper investigates this issue by carrying out an econometric analysis based on the origin-destination (OD) spatial interaction models, which fully account for the spatial dependence generally featured by tourism flows. We contribute to the current debate by analyzing the tourism flows for the complete set of 107 Italian provinces (11449 OD flows) in terms of 2009 arrivals. Besides geographical distance, the explanatory variables include both pull and push locations’ characteristics to assess their relative role in determining the distinctive traits of emissiveness and attractiveness for all the provinces. We thus consider income, density, accessibility (low-cost flights, transport infrastructure), a set of cultural (museums) and natural (park areas, coasts, well-preserved beaches) factors and other amenities (renowned restaurants). The main results point out that there is a great deal of spatial correlation induced by neighboring provinces at both origin and destination, which is systematically overlooked if one relies only on the gravity specification. Once one controls for such a complex kind of dependence, most of the explanatory variables exhibit the expected effect, with distance and population density showing a negative impact on tourists’ decisions when choosing a specific destination, while amenities, accessibility and income turn out to be effective determinants of tourism flows.
    Keywords: tourism flows; spatial origin-destination interaction models; product differentiation; amenities; Italy
    JEL: Q26 C21 L83 D12 R11
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Brida, Juan Gabriel; Scuderi, Raffaele
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the econometric approaches for the analysis of tourism expenditure at individual level. The attempt to consider only regression models is novel in literature. The paper resumes 86 papers and 354 estimates of econometric models from data at individual level, ranging from 1977 to the early 2012. Discussion focuses on models used, dependent variables, explanatory variables by category and their effect on expenditure. The most frequently used explanatory variables were income, socio-demographic and trip-related, and were tested mainly through classical regression techniques (OLS, quantile, Tobit and two-step, logistic). Future research directions should concern the exploration of new evidence through novel methodological techniques, a more extensive use of psychographic variables and a stronger relation to economic theory.
    Keywords: Tourist expenditure; Econometric models; Micro data; Review
    JEL: D11 D12 C0 L83
    Date: 2012–04–25
  3. By: Attanasi, Giuseppe; Casoria, Fortuna; Centorrino, Samuele; Urso, Giulia
    Abstract: In this paper we show how the investment in cultural events may encourage the building of social capital and foster the development of local communities. We rely on a casestudy that we conducted about the socio-economic impact of the Festival “La Notte della Taranta”, the most important European music festival dedicated to traditional music (about 170.000 participants per year), on the sub-region of southern Italy where it is held. Our evidence is based on a large survey, consisting of nearly 10.000 interviews to Festival participants over a span of five editions (2007-2011). A primary result is that the initial economic investment in the Festival has brought a short-term return in terms of touristic attraction worth more than two times as much. More importantly, our results indicate that a cultural festival, despite being a mass gathering, is able to create strong bonds among its participants and between them and the area where the event takes place. Although these bonds are “instantaneous”, i.e. temporally restricted to the duration of the event, they are positively correlated with the economic impact of the event on the territory.
    Keywords: Cultural event, economic impact, social capital, greatly motivated tourist
    Date: 2012–02
  4. By: Börjesson , Maria (KTH)
    Abstract: It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing travel time elasticities for long-distance rail travel in the literature and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish official long-distance model and its forecasted demand for a proposed new HSR track, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The official linear-in-parameters long-distance model is also compared to a model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long-distance travel, long-distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Swedish state-of-practice model, and similar models, is indeed able to predict the demand for a HSR reasonably well. The non-linear model, however, has better model fit and slightly higher elasticities.
    Keywords: High Speed Rail; Travel Demand; Forecasting; Air-rail Share; Cost-benefit Analysis
    JEL: C25 D61 J22 R41 R42
    Date: 2012–05–03
  5. By: Vekeman, Andy (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB)); Meulders, Michel (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB)); Praet, Alain (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB)); colpaert, Jan (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB)); Van Puyenbroeck, Tom (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB))
    Abstract: We provide a contingent valuation of a major cycling event, viz. the Tour of Flanders. Starting from survey data, we use a Bayesian method to derive the distribution of Flemish individuals’ willingness to pay for the event. We relate the individual figures to explanatory factors and find that people residing in the event’s core region as well as spectators have a higher valuation. Incorporating the spatial effect, we arrive at an estimated aggregate value of 17.6 million euro.
    Date: 2012–01

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