nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2011‒10‒09
seven papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. The US Tourism Trade Balance and Exchange Rate Shock By Ka Ming Cheng; Hyeongwoo Kim; Henry Thompson
  2. Climate Change and Tourism in Tuscany, Italy. What if heat becomes unbearable? By Mattia Cai; Roberto Ferrise; Marco Moriondo; Paulo A.L.D. Nunes; Marco Bindi
  3. Sustainable Tourism Indicators: Selection Criteria for Policy Implementation and Scientific Recognition By Marie-Christine Therrien; Juste Rajaonson; Georges A. Tanguay
  4. Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples By Peter Fuleky; Carl S. Bonham
  5. Perceived authenticity and museum visitors’ behavior: a case of South Tirol’s museum of archeology in Bolzano By Juan  Gabriel  Brida; Oksana  Tokarchuk
  6. The Olympic Effect: A Reply By Wolfgang Maennig; Felix Richter
  7. Fundraising Opportunities for Science and Technology Museums By Elena Borin

  1. By: Ka Ming Cheng; Hyeongwoo Kim; Henry Thompson
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of dollar depreciation on the US tourism trade balance. Export revenue and import spending functions are estimated separately with structural vector autoregressive methods to better capture dynamic adjustments to exchange rate shocks. Quarterly data cover the period of floating exchange rates from 1973 through 2007. Depreciation has no significant effect on tourism export revenue or import spending. US tourists are more sensitive to income than are tourists coming to the US.
    Keywords: Balance of Trade; Exchange Rate; Tourism; Structural Vector Autoregressive Model; J-Curve
    JEL: C32 F10
    Date: 2011–09
  2. By: Mattia Cai (Department Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padua, and The Mediterranean Science Commission – CIESM, Principauté de Monaco); Roberto Ferrise (CNR-IBIMET, National Research Council Institute of Biometeorology, Florence); Marco Moriondo (CNR-IBIMET, National Research Council Institute of Biometeorology, Florence); Paulo A.L.D. Nunes (The Mediterranean Science Commission – CIESM, Principauté de Monaco and Department Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padua); Marco Bindi (Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science - University of Florence)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the empirical magnitude of climate conditions on tourist flows in Tuscany, exploring the use of a fine spatial scale analysis. In fact, we explore the use of an 8-year panel dataset of Tuscany’s 254 municipalities, examining how tourist inflows respond to variation in local weather conditions. In particular, as the area enjoys a fairly mild Mediterranean climate, our analysis focused on temperature extremes at key times of the tourist season, i.e., on maximum summer temperature and minimum winter temperature. Separate analyses are conducted for domestic and international tourists, so as to test the differences in the preferences among these distinct groups (or types of demand). Estimation results show the impact of climate change on tourist flows appears to vary significantly among destinations depending on the kind of attractions they offer, and those areas that host the main artistic and historical sights, affecting predominantly the domestic rather than the international tourists.
    Keywords: Domestic Tourists, International Tourists, Municipalities, Maximum And Minimum Daily Temperature, Dynamic Model, Temperature Demand Elasticity, GMM
    JEL: C23 D01 L83
    Date: 2011–09
  3. By: Marie-Christine Therrien; Juste Rajaonson; Georges A. Tanguay
    Abstract: Using sustainable tourism indicators (STI) creates many difficulties resulting mainly from the multiple interpretations of the concept of sustainable development, and by extension of the concept of sustainable tourism. To these difficulties are added an absence of a strong academic background, which is the result of incompatibilities between the needs and objectives of the academic versus the political world, which often challenges the need for indicators. We propose a parsimonious list of sustainable tourism indicators based on the application of a series of selection criteria. From the expert recognized indicators, all of these criteria help us choose the indicators, which cover the dimensions and issues of sustainable development for tourism. They are legitimized by existing experiences and sufficiently flexible to be useful for different destinations. In the end, the intersection of these conditions contributes to the scientific and political recognition of the indicators. We start by applying four general selection criteria to a 507 STI database. This allows us to reduce the list to 20 recognized STI. We end the selection process by applying three specific criteria in order to adjust the 20 STI to render them operational. We illustrate the selection procedure with an example of criteria application to the Gaspésie-Iles-de-la Madeleine region in Quebec. <P>L’utilisation d’indicateurs de tourisme durable (STI) pose de nombreux problèmes qui résultent principalement des multiples interprétations du développement durable et, de ce fait, du tourisme durable. S’y ajoute l’absence d’un cadre de référence établi résultant de l’incompatibilité entre les attentes et objectifs du milieu académique et du milieu politique et remettant souvent en cause la crédibilité et le bien-fondé des indicateurs. Pour y remédier, nous proposons une liste parcimonieuse d’indicateurs de tourisme durable (STI) basée sur l’application d’une série de critères de sélection. L’ensemble de ces critères permet de choisir, parmi les indicateurs reconnus par les experts, ceux qui couvrent largement les dimensions et les enjeux de développement durable dans le domaine du tourisme, qui sont légitimés par les expériences existantes et qui sont en même temps suffisamment flexibles pour être effectifs et utiles à différentes destinations. Nous croyons que le concours de ces conditions contribuera à la reconnaissance et à la légitimité scientifique et politique des indicateurs. Quatre critères de sélection généraux sont appliqués à une base de données de 507 STI pour en réduire le nombre à un effectif optimal de 20 STI. Ensuite, trois critères spécifiques permettent d’ajuster les 20 STI pour les rendre opérationnels. Nous illustrons cette démarche en appliquant ces critères à la région de la Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Québec.
    Keywords: Indicators, Sustainable Tourism, Sustainable Development, Indicateurs, tourisme durable, développement durable
    Date: 2011–09–01
  4. By: Peter Fuleky (UHERO and Department of Economics, University of Hawaii); Carl S. Bonham (UHERO and Department of Economics, University of Hawaii)
    Abstract: We extend the existing literature on small mixed frequency single factor models by allowing for multiple factors, considering indicators in levels, and allowing for cointegration among the indicators. We capture the cointegrating relationships among the indicators by common factors modeled as stochastic trends. We show that the stationary single-factor model frequently used in the literature is misspecified if the data set contains common stochastic trends. We find that taking advantage of common stochastic trends improves forecasting performance over a stationary single-factor model. The common-trends factor model outperforms the stationary single-factor model at all analyzed forecast horizons on a root mean squared error basis. Our results suggest that when the constituent indicators are integrated and cointegrated, modeling common stochastic trends, as opposed to eliminating them, will improve forecasts.
    Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model, Mixed Frequency Samples, Common Trends, Forecasting, Tourism Industry
    JEL: E37 C32 C53 L83
    Date: 2011–06–13
  5. By: Juan  Gabriel  Brida; Oksana  Tokarchuk
    Abstract: In this study we analyze perception of authenticity by visitors of South Tyrol’s museum of archeology, best known as Ötzi museum, in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (Italy). With the help of factor analysis we individuate two factors related to authenticity and study the determinants of the perception of authenticity by the visitors. Individuated factors are then employed to explain visitors’ behavior at the museum. In particular, we study how perception of authenticity is related to the time visitors spend at the museum. Next we investigate the influence of authenticity on shopping behavior of museum visitors. The relevant data were obtained from a survey undertaken in the months from June to August 2010 at site. The empirical findings provide important insights for the management of the Ötzi museum.
    Keywords: Authenticity, museum management, souvenirs, factor analysis, tobit regression.
    JEL: C19 D12 L83
    Date: 2011–08
  6. By: Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Felix Richter (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: Rose & Spiegel (2011) find that Olympic Games host countries experience significant positive and lasting effects on exports. They interpret their results as an indication that countries use the hosting of such an event as a signal of their (new) openness and competitiveness. We challenge these empirical findings on the grounds that the comparison of structurally different and non-matching groups might suffer from a selection bias. We demonstrate that with an appropriately applied matching and treatment methodology, the significant Olympic export effect disappears.
    Keywords: Keywords: export, Olympic Games, international trade, treatment
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2011–09–27
  7. By: Elena Borin
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the possibilities of private funding for a special kind of museums: science museums and technology centers. In the last years the economic crisis has impacted on the cultural sector, decreasing the public resources traditionally allocated to museums and arts and heritage in general. That has forced art professionals to develop alternative strategies to get the necessary financial support for museum’s activities. Although the crisis has affected also private companies and individuals, nowadays fundraising from the private sector seems to be the major alternative to the lack of public funds. I will start this paper analyzing the ethical problems in applying fundraising and marketing in general to museums and then proceed focusing on the main private sponsors of museums in general (foundations, private corporations and individuals). I will then concentrate on science museums addressing their peculiarities and characteristics; I will later deal with issues related to concrete private sponsorship for this type of museums. In the conclusion, I will delineate what some of the major future challenges for this sector are.
    Keywords: Fundraising; Audience Analysis; Marketing; Science and Technology Museums
    JEL: Z11 M39 M2
    Date: 2011–09–10

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