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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Christine Lim (Division of Marketing and International Business Nanyang Technological University Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows. |
| Keywords: | Tourist arrivals, long haul, short haul, risk, conditional volatility, asymmetric effect, leverage. |
| JEL: | C22 G32 L83 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:783&r=tur |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Econometrisch Instituut (Econometric Institute), Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen (Erasmus School of Economics), Erasmus Universiteit, Tinbergen Instituut (Tinbergen Institute).); Christine Lim (Division of Marketing and International Business, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows. |
| Keywords: | Tourist arrivals, long haul, short haul, risk, conditional volatility, asymmetric effect, leverage. |
| JEL: | C22 G32 L83 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1128&r=tur |
| By: | Dogaru, Tatiana-Camelia |
| Abstract: | Governmental intervention by means of a variety of policies is meant to increase efficiency where the free market does not succeed in maintaining and equity relationship between the citizens. All governments are judged depending of the results supplied to society (more children educated, trains more on time, population health), but also on how well it supplies these results. The impulse towards the promotion of public policies, but also the main motivation of the fact thatc they represent the core of the governmental activities, is found in the tension between the free market and the public sector. Therefore, the need to promote public policies derived from these values and for the need to earn the citizens' support for the programs through which these policies are implemented. The paper objectives are: the understanding of the public marketing instruments and the analysis of the applicability of public marketing to public administration, of marketing instruments in promoting public policies. The general context of the work refers to the marketing instruments, as object and subject of influence for the public policies process, knowing that the marketing techniques have a considerable potential for facilitating the acceptance of public policies and of the programs meant for their implementation. In view of reaching the objectives of this paper, we used bibliographic research, the qualitative research and document analysis, as central data collection methods. |
| Keywords: | public policies marketing; marketing instruments; public policies; public marketing |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsu:apasro:319&r=tur |
| By: | Svein Braathen |
| Abstract: | The need for public support. The existing programs for public support have been made with reference to the need for essential air transport services for providing local communities with lifeline transport services. However, the criteria for giving public support (via the programs in USA, Canada and Europe) allows for quite wide interpretation of the terms “remote regions” and “lifeline services”. In some places, subsidies are given to routes with quite heavy traffic where the potential for ordinary commercial services could have been offered. In other subsidy programs, air services’ role as lifeline transport can be questioned because there are modes of surface transport that probably can serve these lifeline needs. A clearer set of criteria for “remoteness” and “lifeline services” could perhaps be developed. The allocative efficiency of the services should be focused, i.e. that the level of service are aligned with market needs and regional policy objectives. There should also be a coordinated approach to the funding of services to remote regions across relevant transport modes. |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2011/13-en&r=tur |