nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2011‒03‒19
three papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples By Tang, Chor Foon
  2. Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia By Tang, Chor Foon
  3. What determines the World Heritage List? An econometric analysis By Bruno S. Frey; Paolo Pamini; Lasse Steiner

  1. By: Tang, Chor Foon
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to examine the tourism-growth nexus for Malaysia with the cointegration and Granger causality tests. This study covers the monthly data from January 1989 to May 2010. The Johansen’s cointegration and the residuals-based test for cointegration with regime shift consistently suggest that tourist arrivals, real output, and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia are cointegrated. In terms of Granger causality, this study finds different sources of causality. In the short run, real output and real effective exchange rate Granger-cause tourist arrivals, while tourists arrivals also Granger-cause real output and real effective exchange rate. In the long run, this study shows that all the variables are bi-directional causality. Moreover, we also extend the study to analyse the stability of causality between tourism and real output by using rolling regression procedure into the Granger causality test. Interestingly, the rolling Granger causality test demonstrates that the growth-led tourism hypothesis is valid and stable, while tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid and but unstable in particular after 2005. Although tourism contributes to economic growth, it is not a persistence source for long-term economic growth in Malaysia.
    Keywords: tourism-led growth hypothesis; Malaysia; rolling regression
    JEL: O11 C32 O53
    Date: 2011–02
  2. By: Tang, Chor Foon
    Abstract: This study applied the cointegration, error-correction modelling and persistence profile to analyse the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income and real exchange rate in Malaysia. This study covers the annual sample period from 1974 to 2009. This study finds that the variables are cointegrated. In the short run, this study finds that neutrality causality between real tourism receipts and real income, while they are bi-directional Granger causality in the long run. Nevertheless, this study finds uni-directional causality running from real exchange rate to real tourism receipts and real income in both short- and long run.
    Keywords: Causality; Exchange rate; Malaysia; Tourism-led growth; Persistence profile
    JEL: O11 O53 C22
    Date: 2011–03
  3. By: Bruno S. Frey; Paolo Pamini; Lasse Steiner
    Abstract: The official intention of the UNESCO World Heritage List is to protect the global heritage. However, the existing List is highly imbalanced according to countries and continents. Historical reasons, such as historical GDP, population, and number of years of high civilization, have a significant impact on being included on the List. In addition, economic and political factors unrelated to the value of heritage, such as rent seeking by bureaucrats and politicians, the size of the tourist sector, the importance of media, the degree of federalism, and membership in the UN Security Council, influence the composition of the List.
    Keywords: Global public goods, world heritage, international organizations, international political economy, culture
    JEL: Z11 F5 H87
    Date: 2011–01

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