nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2010‒04‒17
nine papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand" By Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol; Christine Lim; Michael McAleer; Aree Wiboonpongse
  2. Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan By Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.
  3. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia" By Chia-Lin Chang; Thanchanok Khamkaew; Michael McAleer
  4. Tourism Department: In Search of Tourists By Shiva Mishra
  5. First International Research Forum on Guided Tours - Proceedings By Hallin, Anette; Solli, Rolf
  6. Sectoral Labour Market Effects of the 2006 FIFA World Cup By Arne Feddersen; Wolfgang Maennig
  7. Modelling Fugitive Natural Resources in the Context of Transfrontier Parks: Under what conditions will conservation be successful in Africa? By Edwin Muchapondwa; Tafara Ngwaru
  8. Cambodia’s patient zero: The political economy of foreign aid and avian influenza By Ear, Sophal
  9. What Makes a Good Conference? Analysing the Preferences of Labor Economists By Borghans, Lex; Romans, Margo; Sauermann, Jan

  1. By: Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol (Faculty of Agriculture, Chiang Mai University); Christine Lim (Waikato Management School, University of Waikato); Michael McAleer (Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Aree Wiboonpongse (Faculty of Agriculture, Chiang Mai University)
    Abstract: Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.
    Date: 2010–03
  2. By: Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate and tourist arrivals from Korea to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. The sample period includes the Asian economic and financial crises in 1997, and a significant part of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Inclusion of the exchange rate allows approximate daily price effects on Korean tourism arrivals to Taiwan to be captured. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model is used to capture long memory properties in exchange rates and Korean tourist arrivals, to test whether alternative estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the long memory in the conditional mean, and to examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility. The empirical results show that the conditional volatility estimates are not sensitive to the long memory nature of the conditional mean specifications. The QMLE for the GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models for Korean tourist arrivals to Taiwan and the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models.
    Keywords: Korean tourist arrivals;exchange rates;approximate price effect;global financial crisis;GARCH;GJR;EGARCH;HAR;long memory;asymmetry;leverage
    Date: 2009–11–26
  3. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Thanchanok Khamkaew (Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University and Faculty of Economics, Maejo University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal Demand (AID) models are estimated with monthly data to identify the price competitiveness and interdependencies of tourism demand for competing destinations in both long run (static) and short run error correction (dynamic) specifications. The homogeneity and symmetry restricted long run and short run AID models are estimated to calculate elasticities. The income elasticities, and the compensated and uncompensated own-price and cross-price elasticities, provide useful information for public and private tourism agents at the various destinations to maintain and improve price competitiveness. The empirical results show that price competitiveness is important for tourism demand for Japan, Korea and Hong Kong in the long run, and for Hong Kong and Taiwan in the short run. With regard to long run cross-price elasticities, the substitution effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Korea, Japan-Hong Kong, Taiwan-Hong Kong, Japan-Korea, and Taiwan-Korea. In addition to the substitution effect, the complementary effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Hong Kong, China-Japan, China- Taiwan, Japan-Taiwan, and Korea-Hong Kong. Contrary to the findings obtained from the long run AID specification, Japan-Korea and Taiwan-Korea are complements in the short run. Furthermore, the real total tourism expenditure elasticities indicate that China's share of real total tourism expenditure is inelastic in response to a change in real total tourism expenditure, while Korea's share of real total tourism expenditure is most sensitive to changes in expenditure in the long run. The greatest impact on the share of real total tourism expenditure in the short run is tourism demand for Taiwan.
    Date: 2010–04
  4. By: Shiva Mishra
    Abstract: Delhi is believed to be dil of India. It features historic attractions tracing our evolution from the past to the present. The legacy includes architecture of every description, which never ceases to lure the travellers. Here the past coexists with the present. Still the Tourism Department, Delhi, is in search of tourists. It is tried to understand the functioning of the Tourism Department. The objective in this paper is to find out that how the Department works to attract tourists in Delhi. [CCS WP No. 0050].
    Keywords: Delhi, Transportation, Plan Outlay, innovative package india, historic, attractions, legacy, architecture, tourism, department, tourists, department, travellers,
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Hallin, Anette (Dept of Industrial Economics and Management The Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm/Sweden); Solli, Rolf (Gothenburg Research Institute)
    Abstract: Since the empirical phenomenon of Guided tours involves several aspects, such as tourism, sustainable spatial planning, cultural heritage, the mediation of place through technologies, place marketing ... merand management, Guided tours is a topic well suited for interdisciplinary studies. With this in mind, the first International Research Forum on Guided Tours was hosted by Halmstad University, Sweden on April 23-25th 2009.
    Keywords: guided; tours
    Date: 2010–01–22
  6. By: Arne Feddersen (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: Using the case of the 2006 FIFA World Cup, this study is the first to test the employment effects of a mega-sporting event on the basis of data that are both regional and sectoral. It is also the first study of sporting events to use a non-parametric test method. Earlier studies on the World Cup could not identify any employment effects. In contrast, we find a small but significant positive em-ployment effect on the hospitality sector and a negative effect on the construction sector. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a crowding-out effect of public investment on the occasion of a mega-sporting event has been found in an empirical analysis.
    Keywords: FIFA, World Cup, Economic Impact, Ex-post Analysis, Sectoral Employment
    JEL: H54 R12 L83
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Edwin Muchapondwa; Tafara Ngwaru
    Abstract: The conservation of fugitive natural resources across national boundaries poses significant challenges in Africa. This realisation has resulted in the creation of transfrontier parks. While transfrontier parks help de-fragment wildlife habitats, in the presence of governance heterogeneity the same arrangements create uncertainty as they allow a diverse range of park managers to make decisions about wildlife. This paper formulates a bioeconomic model to examine the determinants of successful conservation of migratory wildlife across a transfrontier park with patch heterogeneity. The examination shows three key results. Firstly, it is both ecologically and economically worthwhile to establish a unified transfrontier park rather than have disjointed national ones only if stronger governance institutions exist in higher-resource potential areas. Secondly, the local communities will cooperate with transfrontier conservation effort only if they derive greater benefit flows from transfrontier park-based wildlife conservation than from anti-conservation activities such as wildlife poaching. Thirdly, successful conservation requires transfrontier arrangements that equalise the long-run costs and benefits for all constituent partners. Given the presence of patch and governance heterogeneity, successful elephant conservation in Southern Africa requires that South Africa shares benefits with Mozambique and Zimbabwe despite their weaker institutions to prevent resource leakages from threatening the transfrontier park.
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Ear, Sophal
    Abstract: What happens when a developing country with poor health infrastructure and even poorer animal health surveillance is thought to be a potential source for the next emerging infectious disease? This is the story of Cambodia and Avian Influenza. This paper undertakes a review of the relevant literature and analyzes the results of detailed semi-structured interviews of individuals highly engaged in Avian Influenza work in Cambodia. First, the political economy context is detailed with particular attention to aid dependency, tourism and the role of the livestock sector. The role of politics and the bureaucracy in this context is explored. Three competing policy narratives emerge: first, kill the birds, but don’t compensate as it’s too difficult and costly; second, behaviour modification change is the answer; and third, whatever happened to poverty and livelihoods? Finally, the political economy of the policy process in Cambodia is described, including actors, networks and interests. The paper finds that in the context of avian influenza, donors are too often motivated by concerns other than protecting livelihoods, just as traditional aid activities are often dominated by the need to tie aid to donor countries, avian influenza activities have been overtly focused on detecting and preventing pandemic as a threat to the donor countries themselves. As of 2008, donors have committed $35 million to Cambodia, placing it seventh among the top 10 recipients of avian influenza funding globally, fourth in terms of per case and per death from A/H5N1, and second in terms of per capita and per outbreak funding. However, ultimate responsibility for the success or failure of policies in Cambodia must rest with those in charge. Poor governance and pervasive institutional failure have plagued the response in Cambodia. Effective disease response and effective governance must go hand-in-hand. A rushed, emergency oriented response to avian influenza may have undermined already weak governance capacity in Cambodia, fuelling patronage networks and encouraging rent seeking. Whether such funds have increased the ability of Cambodia—and the world—to prevent a future pandemic remains uncertain.
    Keywords: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza; Cambodia; Political Economy
    JEL: P33 P32 P26
    Date: 2009–09
  9. By: Borghans, Lex (Maastricht University); Romans, Margo (ROA, Maastricht University); Sauermann, Jan (ROA, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Conferences are an important element in the work of researchers, requiring substantial investments in fees, travel expenses and the time spent by the participants. The aim of this paper is to identify the preferences of participants with respect to conference characteristics. Based on a sample of European labour economists, preferences are measured using the vignette approach where participants are asked to choose between hypothetical European Association of Labour Economists (EALE) conferences. We find that the keynote speakers are the most important element in the preference for a conference, followed by the location of the conference. There is substantial heterogeneity in the taste of labour economists especially with respect to location, though the link between preference parameters and measured characteristics like gender, age and seniority is limited. Factor analysis suggests that the variety in preferences can be best described by a latent variable that reflects the weights people put on content versus fun.
    Keywords: conference participation, economics profession, vignette-method, random-coefficients model
    JEL: A11 J44 C25
    Date: 2010–04

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