nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2010‒03‒06
four papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Can nature promote development? The role of sustainable tourism for economic growth By Andreas Freytag; Christoph Vietze
  2. Tourism and Development: A Recent Phenomenon Built on Old (Institutional) Roots? By Francesco Pigliaru; Rinaldo Brau; Adriana Di Liberto
  3. Multivariate exponential smoothing for forecasting tourist arrivals to Australia and New Zealand By George Athanasopoulos; Ashton de Silva
  4. An Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the MOSE Barriers on Venice Port Activities By Lucia Vergano; Georg Umgiesser; Paulo A.L.D. Nunes

  1. By: Andreas Freytag (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena); Christoph Vietze (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)
    Abstract: We analyze whether biodiversity is enhancing the development process in developing countries (DCs) via increasing tourism receipts in a trade based endogenous growth framework. The underlying assumption is that a rich biodiversity - only if used sustainably - provides a comparative advantage in tourism for most DCs. The main empirical findings are that biodiversity while being significantly and positively correlated with inbound tourism receipts in DCs, has no significant relation with tourist arrivals. This can be interpreted as an indicator that mass tourism is not influenced by biodiversity whereas individual tourism (as the superior good) is. Consequently, we are able to show empirical a positive influence of sustainable tourism on economic growth. Therefore, it may be a promising development strategy to invest in biodiversity and attract high budget tourists.
    Keywords: tourism, economic growth, sustainable development, biodiversity conservation, cross country analysis
    JEL: F18 Q26
    Date: 2010–02–18
  2. By: Francesco Pigliaru (Università di Cagliari and CRENoS); Rinaldo Brau (Università di Cagliari and CRENoS); Adriana Di Liberto (Università di Cagliari and CRENoS)
    Abstract: Is tourism an opportunity for lagging countries in the elusive quest for growth (Easterly, 2002)? Recent empirical evidence suggests that the answer is a cautious yes. Aggregate cross-country data show that tourism specialization is likely to be associated with higher per capita GDP growth rates than those observed in industrialized countries. However, this evidence ignores the importance of institutional quality and results are likely to be biased by omitted variable problems. In this paper we frame our starting question within the general debate about the importance of good/bad institutions as fundamental determinants of economic growth (Acemoglu et al., 2001) and ask whether previous positive results of tourism on growth are in fact driven by the presence of growth enhancing institutions. Our empirical analysis exploits newly available datasets and controls the robustness of previous results on growth and tourism in the presence of several institutional quality variables. By means of descriptive statistics and some simple cross-country regressions we confirm that the quality of institutions is important for growth. Yet our results strongly suggest that the weight of tourism in an economy is an independent and robust predictor of higher-than-average growth.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Tourism Specialization, Institutions
    JEL: O11 O50 O47 F43 L83
    Date: 2010–02
  3. By: George Athanasopoulos; Ashton de Silva
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a new set of multivariate stochastic models that capture time varying seasonality within the vector innovations structural time series (VISTS) framework. These models encapsulate exponential smoothing methods in a multivariate setting. The models considered are the local level, local trend and damped trend VISTS models with an additive multivariate seasonal component. We evaluate their performances for forecasting international tourist arrivals from eleven source countries to Australia and New Zealand.
    Keywords: Holt-Winters’ method, Stochastic seasonality, Vector innovations state space models.
    JEL: C32 C53
    Date: 2010–02–22
  4. By: Lucia Vergano (ECCET, IPTS, JRC, European Commission); Georg Umgiesser (ISMAR-CNR); Paulo A.L.D. Nunes (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)
    Abstract: Due to its hydro-geological features, the lagoon of Venice is especially vulnerable to climate change. In particular, it is strongly affected by gradual global warming that brings about the so-called ‘acqua alta’ (high water) phenomenon with greater frequency and intensity. In order to protect the city of Venice from the more and more frequent phenomenon of flooding, some protective measures have been adopted. Among them, the system of mobile barriers commonly known as MOSE: however, by separating the lagoon from the Adriatic Sea, it interferes with ship traffic and has negative impacts on port activities. Against this background, the aim of the present work is to provide an estimate of the direct costs of ship traffic interruption due to the functioning of the MOSE, i.e. the additional costs resulting from longer waiting time for ships passing through the Venice lagoon. The estimate uses inputs from the application of a specific hydrodynamic model and the elaboration of ship traffic data during the period 2000-2002. Results indicate that the additional costs would range between 347,943 and 1,288,067 €/year, depending on the hypothesis assumed.
    Keywords: Climate Change, ‘Acqua Alta’, MOSE, Ship Traffic, Direct Costs
    JEL: Q51 Q54
    Date: 2010–02

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