nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2009‒12‒11
ten papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading ASEAN destinations By Chang, C-L.; Khamkaew, T.; McAleer, M.; Tansuchat, R.
  2. A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development By Chang, C-L.; Khamkaew, T.; McAleer, M.
  3. Daily tourist arrivals, exchange rates and volatility for Korea and Taiwan By Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.
  4. Modelling Australian Domestic and International Inbound Travel: a Spatial-Temporal Approach By Minfeng Deng; George Athanasopoulos
  5. The Impact of Approved Destination Status on Chinese Travel Abroad: An Economic Analysis By Shawn Arita; Christopher Edmonds; Sumner La Croix; James Mak
  6. Bioeconomic Model of Community Incentives for Wildlife Management Before and After CAMPFIRE By Fischer, Carolyn; Muchapondwa, Edwin; Sterner, Thomas
  7. Valuing the Land of Tigers – What Indian Visitors are Willing to Pay By Indrila Guha
  8. The Passenger Vessel Services Act and America’s Cruise Tourism Industry By James Mak; Christopher Sheehey; Shannon Toriki
  9. Agricultural Risk Management through Community-Based Wildlife Conservation in Rural Zimbabwe By Muchapondwa, Edwin; Sterner, Thomas
  10. A Hedonic Analysis of the Value of Parks and Green Spaces in the Dublin Area By Mayor, Karen; Lyons, Seán; Duffy, David; Tol, Richard S. J.

  1. By: Chang, C-L.; Khamkaew, T.; McAleer, M.; Tansuchat, R. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: International and domestic tourism are leading economic activities in the world today. Tourism has been known to generate goods and services directly and indirectly, attract foreign currency, stimulate employment, and provide opportunities for investment. It has also been recognized as an important means for achieving economic development. Substantial research has been conducted to evaluate the role of international tourism, and its associated volatility, within and across various economies. This paper applies several recently developed models of multivariate conditional volatility to investigate the interdependence of international tourism demand, as measured by international tourist arrivals, and its associated volatility in the four leading destinations in ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Each of these countries has attractive tourism characteristics, such as significant cultural and natural resources. Shocks to international tourism demand volatility could affect, positively or negatively, the volatility in tourism demand of neighbouring countries. The empirical results should encourage regional co-operation in tourism development among ASEAN member countries, and also mobilize international and regional organizations to provide appropriate policy actions.
    Keywords: tourism demand;ASEAN;multivariate GARCH;volatility spillovers;interdependence;economic development
    Date: 2009–11–23
  2. By: Chang, C-L.; Khamkaew, T.; McAleer, M. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there is a causal link between international tourism demand and economic growth, then appropriate policy implications may be developed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1991-2008. The impact of the degree of tourism specialization, which is incorporated as a threshold variable, on economic growth is examined for a wide range of countries at different stages of economic development. The empirical results from threshold estimation identify two endogenous cut-off points, namely 14.97% and 17.50%. This indicates that the entire sample should be divided into three regimes. The results from panel threshold regression show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism in two regimes, the regime with the degree of tourism specialization lower than 14.97% (regime 1) and the regime with the degree of tourism specialization between 14.97% and 17.50% (regime 2). However, the magnitudes of the impact of tourism on economic growth in those two regimes are not the same, with the higher impact being found in regime 2. An insignificant relationship between economic growth and tourism is found in regime 3, in which the degree of tourism specialization is greater than 17.50%. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth.
    Keywords: international tourism;economic development;tourism specialization;threshold variable;panel data
    Date: 2009–11–24
  3. By: Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate and tourist arrivals from Korea to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. The sample period includes the Asian economic and financial crises in 1997, and a significant part of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Inclusion of the exchange rate allows approximate daily price effects on Korean tourism arrivals to Taiwan to be captured. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model is used to capture long memory properties in exchange rates and Korean tourist arrivals, to test whether alternative estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the long memory in the conditional mean, and to examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility. The empirical results show that the conditional volatility estimates are not sensitive to the long memory nature of the conditional mean specifications. The QMLE for the GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models for Korean tourist arrivals to Taiwan and the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models.
    Keywords: Korean tourist arrivals;exchange rates;approximate price effects;global financial crisis;Asian economic and financial crisis;GARCH;GJR;EGARCH;HAR;long memory;asymmetry;leverage
    Date: 2009–11–24
  4. By: Minfeng Deng; George Athanasopoulos
    Abstract: In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant spatial dynamics have been uncovered, which lead to some interesting policy implications.
    Keywords: Tourism demand, Dynamic panel models, Travel flow model.
    JEL: C21 C51 L83
    Date: 2009–11–24
  5. By: Shawn Arita (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Christopher Edmonds (Center on the Family, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Sumner La Croix (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); James Mak (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: Since the early 1990s China’s government has negotiated Approved Destination Status (ADS) with 120 countries. The agreements allow government-approved travel agencies to market group tours and obtain visas in bulk to ADS destinations. We apply a gravity model framework to analyze how ADS has affected Chinese outbound tourist travel from China using Chinese visitor arrivals data from 61 main foreign destinations of mainland Chinese tourists (which account for vast majority of international departures from China) from 1995 to 2005. Fixed effects estimates indicate ADS resulted in significant increases in arrivals from China (averaging 52 percent over three years). We also find evidence of travel diversion as more countries received ADS.
    Keywords: China Outbound Travel, Approved Destination Status, Gravity Model, Tourism, International Agreements, Travel Liberalization
    Date: 2009–11–10
  6. By: Fischer, Carolyn (Resources for the Future (RFF),); Muchapondwa, Edwin (Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe); Sterner, Thomas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper formulates a bioeconomic model to analyze community incentives for wildlife management under benefit-sharing programs like the Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE) in Zimbabwe. Two agents influence the wildlife stock: a parks agency determines hunting quotas, and a local community chooses to either aid or discourage outside poachers. Wildlife generates revenues from hunting licenses and tourism; it also intrudes on local agriculture. We consider two benefit-sharing regimes: shares of wildlife tourism rents and shares of hunting licenses. Resource sharing does not necessarily improve community welfare or incentives for wildlife conservation. Results depend on the exact design of the benefit shares, the size of the benefits compared with agricultural losses, and the way in which the parks agency sets hunting licenses.<p>
    Keywords: bioeconomic; CAMPFIRE; community; poaching; wildlife; benefit sharing
    JEL: H41 Q20
    Date: 2009–12–03
  7. By: Indrila Guha
    Abstract: The study uses an assessment of visitors’ travel costs to estimate the annual recreational value of the Sundarban. It calculates this to be at least INR 15 million (US$ 377,000) for domestic visitors alone.
    Keywords: travel costs, tigers, Indian, environmental, population, development, tourists, conservation, protection, domestic visitors, recreational value, sundarban,
    Date: 2009
  8. By: James Mak (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Christopher Sheehey (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Shannon Toriki (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: The Passenger Vessel Services Act (PVSA) of 1886, a cabotage law, attempts to shield U.S. maritime shipping from foreign competition. It also applies to the U.S. cruise ship industry. The PVSA requires foreign cruise ships that carry passengers between U.S. ports to also stop at foreign ports. Norwegian Cruise Line America (NCLA), which operates one U.S. flagged cruise ship in Hawaii, wants the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to require foreign cruise ships offering Hawaii itineraries from the U.S. west coast to spend more time in foreign ports. We analyze the merits of NCLA’s proposal. We argue that rather than making the PVSA even more protectionist, the law should be repealed.
    Keywords: Passenger Vessel Services Act, PVSA, Norwegian Cruise Lines, NCLA, Protectionism, Cruise industry
    Date: 2009–11–05
  9. By: Muchapondwa, Edwin (School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Sterner, Thomas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the risk faced by rural farmers in Zimbabwe could poten- tially be managed by using community-based wildlife conservation. Community-based wildlife conservation could be an additional asset in the rural farmers’ investment portfolio thereby potentially diversifying and consequently reducing the risk they face. Such investment could also help e¤orts to conserve wildlife. By making use of national historical data and statistical analysis, this paper …nds that community-based wildlife conservation is a feasible hedge asset for agricultural production in rural Zimbabwe. The bene…ts of diversi…cation into community-based wildlife conservation are likely to be high only in those rural areas that can sustain wildlife pop- ulations su¢cient to generate adequate returns from wildlife activities such as tourism, trophy hunting, live animal sales and meat cropping.<p>
    Keywords: CAMPFIRE; diversi…cation; risk management; wildlife conservation; Zimbabwe
    JEL: D81 G11 Q29
    Date: 2009–12–03
  10. By: Mayor, Karen; Lyons, Seán; Duffy, David; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Abstract: We use a hedonic house price model to estimate the value of green spaces and parks to homeowners in the Dublin area. Using a dataset of house sales between 2001 and 2006 and combining it with available data on the location of green spaces in Dublin it is possible to assess the different values assigned to green areas by homeowners. We find that the value of green space depends first of all on how far from the property it is located. We also find a difference in the values assigned to open access parks and green spaces. For every 10% increase in the share of green space and park area near a house, its average price increases by 7% to 9%. We also attempted to identify different individual parks and rank them according to their value, however due to spatial multicollinearity the results were mixed.
    Keywords: green spaces/hedonic regression/Ireland/urban parks
    Date: 2009–09

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