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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Jose Angelo Divino (Department of Economics, Catholic University of Brasilia); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world's environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Para (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil's North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Para, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf650&r=tur |
| By: | Jose Angelo Divino (Department of Economics, Catholic University of Brasilia); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf651&r=tur |
| By: | Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); Bing-Wen Huang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Hsiao-I Kuo (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology); Chi-Chung Chen (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf649&r=tur |