nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2009‒08‒22
three papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. "Modelling Short and Long Haul Volatility in Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan" By Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Christine Lim
  2. Must Improved Labor Standards Hurt Accumulation in the Targeted Sector? Stylized Analysis of a Developing Economy By Arslan Razmi
  3. Airline Market Power and Intertemporal Price Dispersion By Alberto A. Gaggero; Claudio A. Piga

  1. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); Christine Lim (Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Waikato)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand , respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of very similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence also the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.
    Date: 2009–08
  2. By: Arslan Razmi (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a stylized small open economy. The analysis clas- sifies the economy into two tradable output-producing sectors: a manu- facturing sector and a (mainly tourism-related) services sector. Assuming sectoral differences based on stylized facts, we explore the impact of higher labor standards in the manufacturing sector on the long-term prospects of the economy using comparative dynamic exercises to analyze changes in output, foreign direct investment, relative prices, sectoral distribution, and accumulation. We find, in particular, that imposing higher standards across the manufacturing sector could, in the long run, shift the structure of the domestic economy in favor of that sector. JEL Categories:
    Date: 2009–08
  3. By: Alberto A. Gaggero (University of Valle d'Aosta, Italy.); Claudio A. Piga (Dept of Economics, Loughborough University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between market structure and price dispersion in the airline markets connecting the UK and the Republic of Ireland. Price dispersion is measured by a number of inequality indexes, calculated using fares posted on the Internet at specific days before takeoff. We find a negative correlation between market dominance and price dispersion; thus competition appears to hinder the airlines' ability to price discriminate to exploit consumers' heterogeneity in booking time preferences. Moreover, in the Christmas and Easter periods of high demand, fares are less dispersed, possibly because airlines target a less heterogenous set of consumers.
    Keywords: Intertemporal pricing, competition, price dispersion.
    JEL: D43 L10 L93
    Date: 2009–07

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