nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2009‒05‒23
six papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon By Jose Angelo Divino; Michael McAleer
  2. Assessing the Impact of Biodiversity on Tourism Flows: A model for Tourist Behaviour and its Policy Implications By Giulia Macagno; Maria Loureiro; Paulo A.L.D. Nunes; Richard Tol
  3. Estimating the Swedish and Norwegian international tourism demand using (ISUR) technique By Salman, A. Khalik; Arnesson, Leif; Sörensson, Anna; Shukur, Ghazi
  4. Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union By Emilio Pineda; Paul Cashin; Yan Sun
  5. ECCU Business Cycles: Impact of the U.S. By Wendell A. Samuel; Yan Sun
  6. Economic Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services: Methodology and Monetary Estimates By Aline Chiabai; C. M. Travisi; H. Ding; A. Markandya; P.A.L.D Nunes

  1. By: Jose Angelo Divino (Department of Economics Catholic University of Brasilia); Michael McAleer (Universidad Complutense de Madrid.Department of Quantitative Economics)
    Abstract: The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil’s North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.
    Date: 2009
  2. By: Giulia Macagno (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Maria Loureiro (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela); Paulo A.L.D. Nunes (University of Venice and FEEM); Richard Tol (The Economic and Social Research Institute and Free University)
    Abstract: This analysis provides an example of how biodiversity can be measured by means of different indicators, and how the latter can be used to assess the influence of the biodiversity profile of a region on the tourism flows towards it. Previous studies have considered environmental amenities as one of the determinants of tourism destination choice. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the destination’s biodiversity profile can be considered as a key component of environmental amenities. The main objective of this study is to propose a different perspective on this topic, considering the role of biodiversity on tourists’ choice of destination and duration of stay. Domestic Irish tourist flows have been chosen as a case study. The first step of the analysis required the construction of biodiversity indicators suitable for developing a biodiversity profile of each Irish county. Subsequently, a model was developed so as to explain the total number of nights spent in any location as a function of a set of explanatory variables including information about the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, biodiversity and the landscape profile of the county of destination and features of the trip. Results show that most of the biodiversity and landscape indicators included in the analysis turn out to be statistically significant in determining tourists’ choices regarding the duration of their trip. As a result, policies pursuing biodiversity conservation appear to have a positive impact on the revenue of regional tourism.
    Keywords: Species Diversity, Habitat Fragmentation, Landscape Diversity, Trip Demand, Indicators, Ecosystem Services, Human Well-Being
    JEL: Q57
    Date: 2009–04
  3. By: Salman, A. Khalik (Department of Social Sciences, Mid Sweden University); Arnesson, Leif (Department of Social Sciences, Mid Sweden University); Sörensson, Anna (Department of Social Sciences, Mid Sweden University); Shukur, Ghazi (Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO))
    Abstract: This paper estimates the demand for tourism to Sweden and Norway for five countries: Denmark, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States. For each visiting country, and for Sweden and Norway, we specify separate equations by including relative information. We then estimate these equations using Zellner’s Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR). The benefit of this model is that the ISUR estimators utilize the information present in the error correlation of the cross regressions (or equations) and hence are more efficient than single equation estimation methods such as ordinary least squares. Monthly time series data from 1993:01 to 2006:12 are used. The results show that the consumer price index, some lagged dependent variables, and several monthly dummies(representing seasonal effects) have a significant impact on the number of visitors to the SW6 region in Sweden and Tröndelag in Norway. We also find that, in at least some cases, relative prices and exchange rates have a significant effect on international tourism demand.
    Keywords: Tourism demand; Significant factors; Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR)
    JEL: C32
    Date: 2009–05–12
  4. By: Emilio Pineda; Paul Cashin; Yan Sun
    Abstract: This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange rate approach is used to explore sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in ECCU countries. And third, a macroeconomic balance approach is used to estimate equilibrium current account or current account "norms". The main finding of these analyses is that there is little evidence of overvaluation of the EC dollar. Furthermore, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the distinctive impact of tourism in determining real exchange rates through the wealth effect induced by tourism-driven increases in terms of trade and productivity.
    Keywords: Exchange rates , Eastern Caribbean Currency Union , Real effective exchange rates , Purchasing power parity , Tourism , Competition , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–04–22
  5. By: Wendell A. Samuel; Yan Sun
    Abstract: With a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.
    Keywords: Business cycles , Eastern Caribbean Currency Union , United States , Spillovers , External shocks , Fiscal reforms , Fiscal consolidation , Debt reduction , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–04–17
  6. By: Aline Chiabai (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); C. M. Travisi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); H. Ding (FEEM, and School for Advanced Studies in Venice Foundation, University of Venice); A. Markandya (Basque Centre for Climate Change BC3 and University of Bath); P.A.L.D Nunes (FEEM and School for Advanced Studies in Venice Foundation, University of Venice)
    Abstract: By using ad hoc value transfer protocols, this paper offers a methodological contribution and provides accurate per hectare estimates of the economic value of some selected ecosystem services for all forest biomes in the world, identified following the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment taxonomy MEA. The research also estimates potential total economic losses from policy inaction in year 2050. Final results show that total losses are significant. The total figure is €78 billion, the greatest losses coming from North America and Mexico, followed by Africa, Russia and some Asiatic countries. Most of this loss is attributable to provisioning services and carbon sequestration, while only a minor part is due to loss of cultural services. In terms of biomes the greatest losses are from boreal and warm mixed forests, followed by tropical forests. These results may be surprising to some who argue that it is the loss of tropical forests, particularly the Amazon, that is the most significant. A detailed analysis, shows, however, that this is not the case. The best estimates point to greater losses in areas where use and non-use values are highest, which includes North America.
    Keywords: Forest, Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, Valuation, Value Transfer
    JEL: O13 Q23 Q26 Q51 Q54 Q57
    Date: 2009–02

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