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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Gabriel Ahlfeldt (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Bastian Franke; Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how German tourists react to unanticipated shocks that alter their risk perception of selected tourism destinations. Using a difference-in-difference strategy which flexibly accounts for macroeconomic conditions and also addresses potential problems of serial correlation, we isolate significant effects of the 9/11 (2001) terrorist attacks, as well as for the attacks in Egypt (1997), Tunisia (2002), Morocco (2003) and Indonesia (2003). These terror attacks impacted especially on Islamic countries all over the world, indicating a transmission mechanism driven by ethnic and religious proximity. At the same time, tourism into Islamic countries was temporarily substituted by tourism to (south) European countries. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Terrorism; 9/11; Islamic Countries; Tourism Demand |
| JEL: | R19 D89 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:024&r=tur |
| By: | Brandon Dupont; Alka Gandhi; Thomas Weiss |
| Abstract: | There were substantial fluctuations in the numbers of American overseas travelers, especially before World War II. These fluctuations in travel around the robust, long term upward trend are the focus of this paper. We first identify those fluctuations in the raw data and then try to explain the pattern of overseas travel in a quantitative way. As we show, despite the impact of a myriad of episodic events, the fluctuations in travel can be explained to a large extent by changes in the direct price of travel, changes in per capita GDP in the U.S., the extent of travel in the preceding year, and by periods of armed conflict in Europe. We attempt to explain some of the remaining variation for specific episodes in which the actual level of travel differed substantially from the predicted. |
| JEL: | L83 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14847&r=tur |