nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2009‒03‒28
five papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon By Divino, J. A.; McAleer, M.
  2. Testing for seasonal unit roots in monthly panels of time series By Kunst, R.M.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  3. An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia By McAleer, M.; Huang, B-W.; Kuo, H-I.; Chen, C-C.; Chang, C-L.
  4. The energetic north: development gains and growing pains By Melanie, Jane; Gleeson, Trish; Rogers, Nikki; Stark, Clare
  5. The value of recreational fishing along the Capricorn Coast: A pooled revealed preference and contingent behaviour model By Prayaga, Prabha; Rolfe, John; Stoeckl, Natalie

  1. By: Divino, J. A.; McAleer, M. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil’s North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. Economic progress of the region has been achieved at a cost of destroying large areas of the Amazon rain forest. In this scenario, the tourism industry would seem to have the potential to contribute to sustainable economic development in the North region of Brazil. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.
    Keywords: Brazilian Amazon;international tourism demand;time series modelling;conditional volatility models;forecasting
    Date: 2008–11–10
  2. By: Kunst, R.M.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: We consider the problem of testing for seasonal unit roots in monthly panel data. To this aim, we generalize the quarterly CHEGY test to the monthly case. This parametric test is contrasted with a new nonparametric test, which is the panel counterpart to the univariate RURS test that relies on counting extrema in time series. All methods are applied to an empirical data set on tourism in Austrian provinces. The power properties of the tests are evaluated in simulation experiments that are tuned to the tourism data.
    Keywords: seasonality;nonparametric test;unit roots;panel;tourism
    Date: 2009–02–19
  3. By: McAleer, M.; Huang, B-W.; Kuo, H-I.; Chen, C-C.; Chang, C-L. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.
    Keywords: SARS;Avian flu;international tourism;static fixed effects model;dynamic panel data model
    Date: 2008–11–10
  4. By: Melanie, Jane; Gleeson, Trish; Rogers, Nikki; Stark, Clare
    Abstract: Northern Australia has changed rapidly over the past 10 to 20 years with its regional economies becoming increasingly internationally connected. There have been many gains to the Australian economy through the development and investment opportunities which have presented themselves in this dynamic region of Australia. This includes the development of rich energy and mineral resources, the development of pastoral and agricultural industries, growth in tourism expenditure and investment in strategic transport and communications infrastructure. Along with these development gains, the region faces a number of challenges or ‘growing pains’. Can the prosperity of Northern Australia be sustained as we enter a global recession and longer term pressures emerge?
    Date: 2009
  5. By: Prayaga, Prabha; Rolfe, John; Stoeckl, Natalie
    Abstract: pooled revealed preference and contingent behaviour model
    Keywords: recreational fishing, count data, contingent behaviour, Great Barrier Reef,
    Date: 2009

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