nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2009‒01‒03
six papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Tourism and urban transport: Holding demand pressure under supply constraints By Daniel Albalate; Germà Bel
  2. Forecasting British Tourist Arrivals to Balearic Islands Using Meteorological Variables and Artificial Neural Networks By Marcos Álvarez Díaz; Jaume Rosselló Nadal
  3. What Attracts Tourists to Paradise? By Evridiki Tsounta
  4. The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows By Jaume Rosselló Nadal; Antoni Riera Font; Vivian Cardenas
  5. Pricing on the European Mass Tourism Market: Tour Operators, Low Cost Carriers and Internet By Jaume Rosselló Nadal; Antoni Riera Font
  6. Environmental diversity in recreational choice modelling By Angel Bujosa Bestard; Antoni Riera Font

  1. By: Daniel Albalate (PPRE-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Germà Bel (PPRE-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: Scholars and local planners are increasingly interested in tourism contribution to economic and social development. To this regard, several European cities lead the world rankings on tourist arrivals, and their governments have promoted tourism activity. Mobility is an essential service for tourists visiting large cities, since it is a crucial factor for their comfort. In addition, it facilitates the spread of benefits across the city. The aim of this study is to determine whether city planners respond to this additional urban transport demand pressure by extending supply services. We use an international database of European cities. Our results confirm that tourism intensity is a demand enhancing factor on urban transport. Contrarily, cities do not seem to address this pressure by increasing service supply. This suggests that tourism exerts a positive externality on public transport since it provides additional funding for these services, but it imposes as well external costs on resident users because of congestion given supply constraints.
    Keywords: Tourism, Urban Transport, Local government
    JEL: H70 J68 L83 L98 R41
    Date: 2008–12
  2. By: Marcos Álvarez Díaz (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Jaume Rosselló Nadal (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))
    Abstract: There is a clear understanding of the benefits of getting accurate predictions that allow diminishing the uncertainty inherent to the tourism activity. Managers, entrepreneurs, politicians and many other agents related to the tourism sector need good forecasts to plan an efficient use of tourism-related resources. In spite of the consensus on this need, tourism forecasters must make an even greater effort to satisfy the industry requirements. In this paper, the possibility of improving the predictive ability of a tourism demand model with meteorological explanatory variables is investigated using the case study of monthly British tourism demand to the Balearic Islands (Spain). For this purpose, a transfer function model and a causal artificial neural network are fitted. Meanwhile, the results are compared with those obtained by non-causal methods: an ARIMA model and an autoregressive neural network. The results seem to indicate that adding meteorological variables can increase the predictive power but, however, the most accurate prediction is obtained using a non-causal model, specifically an autoregressive neural network.
    Keywords: Tourism, weather anomalies, climate change, transfer function modeling, United Kingdom.
    Date: 2008
  3. By: Evridiki Tsounta
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of tourism demand in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. We estimate the demand function in a panel setting using annual data from 1979 to 2005. Results show that tourism arrivals are significantly affected by economic developments in the source countries, while price considerations and external shocks (such as hurricanes and wars) are also important. Supply factors, such as developments in foreign direct investment and the number of airlines servicing a destination, are also found to be significant determinants of tourism demand.
    Keywords: Tourism , Caribbean , Eastern Caribbean Currency Union , Demand , Supply , External shocks , Prices , Foreign direct investment , Economic models ,
    Date: 2008–12–10
  4. By: Jaume Rosselló Nadal (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Antoni Riera Font (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Vivian Cardenas (PhD student of the Program of Tourism and Environmental Economics)
    Abstract: Climate can be understood both as a resource and a motivation for tourism. This study focuses on the second issue trying to establish the sensitivity to weather anomalies of the outbound flows from United Kingdom, the third biggest international tourist spender country. Using transfer function models it is possible to analyze the significance of the short-term weather conditions in the determination of outbound British flows and simulate the effects of different climate change scenarios. Results show how mean temperature, heat waves, air frost and sunshine days are the weather variables that can be significantly related to the dynamics of the outbound British flows.
    Keywords: Tourism, weather anomalies, climate change, transfer function modeling, United Kingdom.
    Date: 2008
  5. By: Jaume Rosselló Nadal (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Antoni Riera Font (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))
    Abstract: The recent expansion of Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) and the increasing use of Internet are provoking a deep transformation in the marketing of the typical Mediterranean summer tourism product in Europe. Internet may significantly reduce intermediary costs by enabling the connection between accommodation and transport business and consumers. At the same time, a more flexible product can be created in contrast to the conventional rigid tourist package offered by traditional tour operators. This paper investigates differences in price level and price dispersion across off-line and on-line markets and across tour operators and new emerging Internet retailers -including LCCs- using microdata on travel & accommodation individual expenses of tourists in the Balearic Islands, one of the most representative mature Mediterranean resorts. On the basis of the hedonic regression model, results suggest that price of transport; accommodation and board offered on Internet are lower than those offered by others channels, whatever the quality and quantity. Additionally, results reveal how on-line and off-line markets differ in the indirect value attributed to different characteristics of the product showing market segmentation.
    Keywords: Internet pricing, e-tail, hybrid retailers, intermediaries, tourist products, Mediterranean Sea.
    Date: 2008
  6. By: Angel Bujosa Bestard (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Antoni Riera Font (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))
    Abstract: The accuracy of environmental valuation studies relies, to a great extent, on the suitability of the proxy measures used to capture individuals’ preferences. While important advances have been achieved in last years concerning the characterization of the physical background in which recreational choices are made, Travel Cost Method applications have failed to consider the heterogeneity of landscape and the spatial configuration of land use. This paper presents an empirical application to forest recreation in Mallorca (Spain), implementing a random parameter logit model to evaluate —in terms of goodness-of-fit, model predictions and welfare measurements— the effects of environmental diversity on the recreational site-choice process.
    Keywords: Travel Cost Method, random parameter logit, recreation demand, environmental diversity, forests
    Date: 2008

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