nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2008‒09‒29
four papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Searching for clusters in tourism. A quantitative methodological proposal By Cristina Santos; Alexandre Almeida; Aurora A.C. Teixeira
  2. International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach By Aslan, Alper; Kaplan, Muhittin; Kula, Ferit
  3. Analysing the Impact of Natural Hazards in Small Economies: The Caribbean Case By Heger, Martin; Julca, Alex; Paddison, Oliver
  4. The Economic Impact of Climate Change By Tol, Richard S. J.

  1. By: Cristina Santos (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto); Alexandre Almeida (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto); Aurora A.C. Teixeira (INESC Porto, CEMPRE, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)
    Abstract: The tourism industry is one of Europe’s leading employers, and for many regions highly dependent on tourists’ spending, innovation is the difference between growth and stagnation. Thus, at a regional level, tourism may function as a driving force of socioeconomic development and thus contribute to the demise of regional disparities. Such lever effect is usually associated to a geographical concentration abusively denominated of clusters. Most of the studies within the tourism industry identify clusters resorting to simplistic analyses of geographic location measures or experts’ opinions. These latter tend to neglect the essence of the cluster concept, namely the inter-linkages among regional actors. In the present paper, we propose a methodology to rigorously identify tourism clusters, stressing the importance of networks and cooperation between agents.
    Keywords: Clusters; Tourism; Methodology
    JEL: R12 R15 L83 C67
    Date: 2008–09
  2. By: Aslan, Alper; Kaplan, Muhittin; Kula, Ferit
    Abstract: Empirical studies on tourism field for Turkey have illustrated little attention in modelling properly the demand function for tourism and identifying the main basis of tourism flows. The majority of studies take into consideration the demand side determinants of tourism, usually proxies by income and price measurements, and little attention has been given to the supply factors, which might influence substantially the tourism performance. Factors such as infrastructures in networks and accommodation capacity in the hosting country have been ignored in such studies. Taking into accounts these facts, in this paper, a dynamic model is used to estimate the demand function of tourism in Turkey with respect to its nine major clients, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, Holland, France, Austria, Iran, Bulgaria and Ukraine, for a period of 10 years (1995-2004) by using the GMM-DIFF estimator proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). One of the main conclusions of the study is the significant value of the lagged dependent variable (0.28), which may be interpreted as a minor word-of-mouth effect on the consumer decision in favour of the destination.
    Keywords: Tourism Demand; GMM-DIFF; Turkey
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2008
  3. By: Heger, Martin; Julca, Alex; Paddison, Oliver
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of natural disasters in the Caribbean. The economic impact of natural disasters in the region has been significant, resulting in widespread destruction of the productive economy. This paper presents the main macroeconomic impact of disasters, e.g., a deteriorating fiscal balance, a collapse of growth and a worsening external balance, as a consequence of damage resulting from the event. By making special reference to the small-island developing state nature of many countries in the region, valuable lessons of the impact of such disasters on the capital stock can be learnt, particularly as the interruption of production of goods and services can be particularly devastating in an environment where few large sectors (agriculture, tourism) dominate the economic landscape.
    Keywords: natural disasters, Caribbean, diversification, trade, environment
    Date: 2008
  4. By: Tol, Richard S. J. (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))
    Abstract: I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be predominantly negative later in the century. Global average impacts would be comparable to the welfare loss of a few percent of income, but substantially higher in poor countries. There are over 200 estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon is large and right-skewed. For a standard discount rate, the expected value $50/tC, which is much lower than the price of carbon in the European Union but much higher than the price of carbon elsewhere. Current estimates of the damage costs of climate change are incomplete, with positive and negative biases. Most important among the missing impacts are the indirect effects of climate change on economic development, large scale biodiversity loss, low probability – high impact scenarios, the impact of climate change on violent conflict, and the impacts of climate change beyond 2100. From a welfare perspective, the impact of climate change is problematic because population is endogenous, and because policy analyses should separate impatience, risk aversion, and inequity aversion between and within countries.
    Keywords: Impacts of climate change; social cost of carbon
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2008–09

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