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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Haiyan Song; Egon Smeral (WIFO); Gang Li; Jason L. Chen |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the forecasting accuracy of five alternative econometric models in the context of predicting the quarterly international tourism demand in 25 countries or country groupings. Tourism demand is measured in terms of tourist expenditure by inbound international visitors in a destination. Two univariate time series models are included in the forecasting comparison as benchmarks. Accuracy is assessed in terms of error magnitude. Seasonality is an important feature of forecasting models and requires careful handling. For each of the 25 destinations, individual models are estimated over the 1980Q1-2005Q1 period, and forecasting performance is assessed using data covering the 2005Q2-2007Q1 period. The empirical results show that the time-varying parameter (TVP) model provides the most accurate short-term forecasts, whereas the naïve (no-change) model performs best in long-term forecasting up to two years. This study provides new evidence of the TVP model's outstanding performance in short-term forecasting. Through the incorporation of a seasonal component into the model, the TVP model forecasts short-run seasonal tourism demand well. |
| Keywords: | tourism forecasting, econometric models, time series models, forecasting accuracy |
| Date: | 2008–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:326&r=tur |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the relationship between demand fluctuations and productivity of service industries. Specifically, by using unique establishment-level data on service industries in Japan, this paper estimates production functions for six narrowly defined personal-service industries. In almost all the examined service industries, statistically and economically significant negative effects of demand variation on establishment-level productivity are found. This result suggests dispersing holidays may have positive effects on the productivity of service industries. |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:08030&r=tur |
| By: | Van Butsic; Ellen Hanak; Robert G. Valletta |
| Abstract: | We use a hedonic framework to estimate and simulate the impact of global warming on real estate prices at North American ski resorts. To do so, we combine data on resort-area housing prices from two sources--data on average prices for U.S. Census tracts across a broad swath of the western U.S. and data on individual home sales for four markets in the western U.S. and Canada, each available over multiple decades--with detailed weather data and characteristics of ski resorts in those areas. Our OLS and fixed-effects models of changes in house prices with respect to medium-run changes in the share of snowfall in winter precipitation yield precise and consistent estimates of positive snowfall effects on housing values in both data sources. We use our estimates to simulate the impact of likely climate shifts on house prices in coming decades and find substantial variation across resort areas based on climatic characteristics such as longitude, elevation, and proximity to the Pacific Ocean. Resorts that are unfavorably located face likely large negative effects on home prices due to warming, unless adaptive measures are able to compensate for the deterioration of conditions in the ski industry. |
| Keywords: | Environmental protection ; Housing - Prices ; Skis and skiing |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-12&r=tur |
| By: | Philip McCann (University of Waikato and University of Reading); Jacques Poot (Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato); Lynda Sanderson (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we consider how international migration is related to the frequency and duration of trips to the home country. For many migrants, international migration triggers a series of trips to visit the home country that allow for a replenishment of the depleted relationship capital with family and friends back home, but these trips incur travel costs and foregone earnings. Given plausible assumptions about the depreciation and replenishment of home country relationship capital, a steady-state level of average maintained relationship capital implies that the optimized travel frequency is inversely related to the distance and the transportation costs, and positively related to the psychological costs of separation. The total time spent at home is increasing in the trip frequency, but with an elasticity that is decreasing in cultural proximity. Empirical evidence in support of these theoretical predictions is found in a unique longitudinal sample of international travel of 13,674 New Zealand citizens and 6,882 UK citizens who migrated to Australia between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2000. |
| Keywords: | International Migration; Trip Frequency, Relationship Capital |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:0808&r=tur |