nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2008‒05‒31
seven papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach By Christoph Vietze
  2. Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation By Karen Mayor; Richard S. J. Tol
  3. Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement By Karen Mayor; Richard S. J. Tol
  4. European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions By Karen Mayor; Richard S. J. Tol
  5. Cooperative Strategies for Improving the Tourism Industry in Remote Geographic Regions: An Addition to Trust and Commitment Theory with one Key Mediating Construct By Pesämaa, Ossi; Hair Jr, Joseph F
  6. Service Exports: The Next Engine of Growth For Hong Kong? By Frank Leung; Kevin Chow; Jessica Szeto; Dickson Tam
  7. Monetary Policy and Data Uncertainty: A Case Study of Distribution, Hotels and Catering Growth By Mahadeva, Lavan

  1. By: Christoph Vietze (Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Economics, Chair for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In this paper we discuss the effects of cultural - and particular religious - factors on tourist flows into the USA as the world largest tourism destination. To estimate this empirically we run an augmented gravity equation. Our results give evidence that the gravity equation is an adequate instrument to explain variations in international tourist flows. With respect to the aim of the paper, we have found that cultural proximity between country of origin and country of destination have positive effects on the tourism flows between these countries. In particular, after controlling for a set of geographic variables, people from countries with the same language (English) and the same high governmental rankings like the USA, travel more into the USA for holiday than people from other countries. Above all, we have clear and stable evidence that tourists from Christian countries prefer the USA as holiday destination much stronger than people from other countries. This supports our argument that people wishing to go on holiday to countries with a similar cultural and political background.
    Keywords: tourism, cultural factors, religion
    JEL: F14 L83 Z12
    Date: 2008–05–19
  2. By: Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S. J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))
    Abstract: We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to forecast tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows by a factor of 12. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until 2060 when emissions per passenger-kilometre start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Forecasted emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the forecasts are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions, international tourism, long-term forecasting, aviation
    Date: 2008–05
  3. By: Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S. J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))
    Abstract: We examine the impacts of the EU-US Open Skies agreement on the environment, in particular looking at the effect of the agreement on emissions from the aviation sector. We use the Hamburg Tourism Model, a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows, to estimate these impacts. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between carriers and consequently falls in the cost of transatlantic flights. This will not only have implications for the size and structure of the industry but also for climate policy. The objectives of this paper are (1) to assess what effects the expected increases in passenger numbers will have on CO2 emissions and (2) to test whether this increase in travel will result in a corresponding rise in emissions. Model simulations show that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by between 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. We find that because of substitution between destinations, the percentage increase in global emissions is much smaller (max. 1%) than the increase in cross-Atlantic traffic. In the current context of greenhouse gas control policies, any increase in emissions will make climate policy objectives more difficult to achieve and will attract more attention to aviation’s contribution to climate change.
    Keywords: International tourism; open skies agreement; carbon dioxide emissions; climate policy; externalities
    Date: 2008–05
  4. By: Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S. J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))
    Abstract: We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to investigate the effect of various climate policy instruments implemented in Europe on arrivals and emissions for the countries concerned. We find that these schemes do not fulfil their desired effects. The introduction of aviation into the European Trading system results in a fall in the number of tourists travelling into the EU in favour of other destinations. It also causes a significant welfare loss with only a small reduction in emissions. The flight taxes in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom result in different substitution effects across destinations (depending on the zones being taxed) but both policies do have the same consequence of inducing welfare losses and also reducing visitor numbers to the countries. We find that when these policies are combined their effects are additive. Welfare impacts are robust to variations in the underlying assumptions and changes in the scope of the taxes examined have the expected effects.
    Keywords: Climate policy, carbon dioxide emissions, international tourism
    Date: 2008–05
  5. By: Pesämaa, Ossi; Hair Jr, Joseph F
    Abstract: The success of cooperative relationships is influenced by interorganizational commitment, which is a long-run goal of networks. Our research examined cooperative relationships in the tourism industry to better understand what makes them successful. The study is an extension of previous empirical research on commitment. The overall research questions were: ‘‘What factors lead to interorganizational commitment in remote tourismdestinations?’’ and ‘‘What are the relationships between the factors?’’ A literature search was conducted to identify factors related to organizational commitment. Search findings suggested a model proposing that interpersonal commitment mediates the effect of trust and reciprocity on interorganizational commitment. Data for the model was collected from a sample of tourism firms in successful cooperative networks. The theoretical model was purified based on convergent, nomological and discriminant validity as well as construct reliability. Our findings demonstrated that the relationship between trust and interorganizational commitment is in fact mediated by interpersonal commitment. We confirmed that reciprocity is directly related to interorganizational commitment, and is not mediated by interpersonal commitment. Thus, tourism firms should develop cooperative strategies in their networks by focusing on enhancing interpersonal commitment through trust, thereby ultimately helping to strengthen interorganizational commitment.
    Keywords: Interpersonal commitment; interorganizational commitment; trust; reciprocity; tourism; experience stratos
    JEL: C12 M12 C21
    Date: 2008
  6. By: Frank Leung (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Kevin Chow (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Jessica Szeto (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Dickson Tam (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: Increasing economic integration with Mainland China has contributed to the rapid expansion of service exports in Hong Kong. Growing at the current pace of 10-20% per annum, service exports would be a key contributor to GDP in the coming years, thanks to vibrant expansion in offshore trade and strong growth in financial service exports and inbound tourism. Our projections show that, if the size of the Mainland economy doubles over the next decade, service exports could increase from the current 40% of GDP to 50% of GDP by 2016, probably the fastest growing component in GDP.
    Keywords: Trade in services, Offshore trade, Hong Kong, Mainland China
    JEL: F1 F2
    Date: 2008–04
  7. By: Mahadeva, Lavan (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper is a case study of the real world monetary policy data uncertainty problem. The initial and the latest release for growth rates of the distribution, hotels and catering sector are combined with official data on household income and two surveys in a state-space model. Though important to the UK economy, the distribution, hotels and catering sector is apparently difficult to measure. One finding is that the initial release data is not important in predicting the latest release. It could be that the statistical office develop the initial release as a building block towards the final release rather than an estimate of it. Indeed, there is multicollinearity between the initial release and the retail sales survey, which would then contain the same early available information. A second finding is that the estimate of the later release is sensitive to the estimate of the average historical growth rate. This means that establishing priors for this parameter and testing for shift structural breaks should be very important.
    Keywords: Data Uncertainty; Distribution Sector; Kalman Filter; Monetary Policy
    JEL: E52 L81
    Date: 2007–12

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