nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2007‒10‒20
three papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
University of Bologna

  1. An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates By Andrea Mervar; James E. Payne
  2. Impact of Cultural Tourism upon Urban Economies: An Econometric Exercise By Elena Bellini; Ugo Gasparino; Barbara Del Corpo; William Malizia

  1. By: Andrea Mervar; James E. Payne (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)
    Abstract: Given that tourism is a significant source of export revenues for Croatia, it is vital for policymakers to understand the factors affecting foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations. This study provides long-run elasticity estimates associated with the aggregate foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations in the period 1994:1-2004:4 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Foreign tourism demand is proxied by the aggregate number of foreign overnight stays in Croatia. The long-run elasticity estimates indicate that tourism demand is positive and highly elastic with respect to the income of tourist-generating countries. Moreover, tourism demand is adversely affected by the political conflicts in the 1990s. The real exchange rate and transportation costs are not statistically significant determinants of foreign tourism demand.
    Keywords: tourism demand, cointegration, ARDL, Croatia
    JEL: C22 L83
    Date: 2007–02
  2. By: Elena Bellini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Ugo Gasparino (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Barbara Del Corpo (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); William Malizia (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: In recent years, interest in tourism has spread rapidly throughout many small and medium European cities, which previously have not necessarily considered themselves as tourist destinations. Tourism is increasingly seen as a potential lever towards high economic growth, measured both in terms of income and employment. In the present Working Paper we report the analysis on the economic impact undertaken in the framework of the PICTURE Project, showing the results of a novel econometric exercise to statistically assess the impacts of cultural tourism upon European municipalities. More precisely the analysis aims at estimating the effects of tourism specialisation on local income and prices. The Working Paper is built as follows. Section 1 presents and discusses secondary data about tourism facts and figures, including the economic impact of tourism upon European economies, with a focus on cultural tourism. An extensive review of literature, which identifies the main categories of impacts and the currently available methodologies to assess them, is undertaken. Section 2 focuses on the state of the art. Section 3 describes the database built for the analysis, sources and variables. In order to visually represent the spatial variability of the main parameters, a series of thematic maps at NUTS 3 level(“Maps of European tourism”), using GIS (Geographical Information System) are also included in the Working Paper. Section 4 shows the results of the econometric analysis of European panel data for the estimation of the effects of tourism specialisation on both local incomes and prices. Section 5 concludes.
    Keywords: Cultural Tourism, Economic Growth
    JEL: O4 R0 L83
    Date: 2007–09
  3. By: Hans de Kruijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Martine Rutten (Netherlands Ministry of Finance)
    Abstract: Despite rapid economic and social development of the Maldives, the vulnerability of the island population in terms of poverty remains high. Using household panel data for the period 1997/98 Ð 2004 we show that, although the majority of the poor manages to escape from poverty, a substantial part of the non-poor falls back into poverty at the same time. Using Logit regression analysis, the most influential determinants of escaping household poverty are shown to be: the level of education, participation in community activities, and the proportion of adults employed. Factors that have the largest impact on impeding a poverty escape are: the proportion of household members not working due to bad health, living in the North, and the proportion of female household members. The former two factors, in addition to household size, are also most influential on the odds of falling into poverty. Working in tourism, or the public sector, and taking out a loan to invest are important factors that prevent households from falling into poverty. Policy implications of these results are not only relevant at government level but also at household level. The government may consider paying more attention to the development of the two Northern regions, improve access to good quality education and health care, and further develop (private sector) tourism across the country. Household coping strategies involve investing in education, entering the labour market (especially in tourism and the public sector) and family planning.
    Keywords: vulnerability, income poverty dynamics, Maldives, Logit regression, probability of escaping from or falling into poverty
    JEL: C23 C25 I32
    Date: 2007–08

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