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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Jacqueline M. Hamilton; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals – as Western European international tourist demand falls – but later increase numbers – as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: Tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: Tourism shifts south. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, domestic tourism, climate change, regional impacts |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:115&r=tur |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: A global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than double air fares, and have a smaller impact on the total cost of the holiday. In addition, the price elasticity is low. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. Medium distance flights would be affected least. This implies that tourist destinations that rely heavily on short-haul flights (that is, islands near continents, such as Ireland) or on intercontinental flights (e.g., Africa) will see a decline in international tourism numbers, while other destinations may see international arrivals rise. If the tax is only applied to the European Union, EU tourists would stay closer to home so that EU tourism would grow at the expense of other destinations. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the qualitative insights are robust. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would have little effect on international tourism, and little effect on emissions. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, tax, carbon dioxide, aviation |
| JEL: | L83 L93 Q54 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:120&r=tur |
| By: | David Anthoff (Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University); Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions require the aggregation of monetised impacts of climate change over people with different incomes and in different jurisdictions. Implicitly or explicitly, such estimates assume a social welfare function and hence a particular attitude towards equity and justice. We show that previous approaches to equity weighing are inappropriate from a national decision maker’s point of view, because domestic impacts are not valued at domestic values. We propose four alternatives (sovereignty, altruism, good neighbour, and compensation) with different views on concern for and liability towards foreigners. The four alternatives imply radically estimates of the social cost of carbon and hence the optimal intensity of climate policy. |
| Keywords: | Domestic climate policy, social cost of carbon, equity weights |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:127&r=tur |