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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | George Athanasopoulos; Rob J. Hyndman |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we model and forecast Australian domestic tourism demand. We use a regression framework to estimate important economic relationships for domestic tourism demand. We also identify the impact of world events such as the 2000 Sydney Olympics and the 2002 Bali bombings on Australian domestic tourism. To explore the time series nature of the data, we use innovation state space models to forecast the domestic tourism demand. Combining these two frameworks, we build innovation state space models with exogenous variables. These models are able to capture the time series dynamics in the data, as well as economic and other relationships. We show that these models outperform alternative approaches for short-term forecasting and also produce sensible long-term forecasts. The forecasts are compared with the official Australian government forecasts, which are found to be more optimistic than our forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Australia, domestic tourism, exponential smoothing, forecasting, innovation state space models. |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2006-19&r=tur |
| By: | Manuela Pulina; Bianca Biagi |
| Abstract: | The causal relationship between tourist demand and supply is investigated employing four time series models: the first model includes nights of stay and number of supplied accommodation; the second model uses nights of stay and supplied beds (i.e. capacity); the third model employs nights of stay and the quality of supplied accommodation; finally, the fourth model includes nights of stay and the quality of supplied capacity. To test for Granger causality in the presence of a cointegration relationship between the economic variables of interest, a bivariate VAR model is used. Empirical results are from four distinctive models for Sardinia (Italy) over the time span 1955 to 2004. The first model suggests a unidirectional causal relationship running from demand to accommodation firms; the second model suggests a bi-directional causal relationship between demand and capacity. The third and fourth models indicate the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from quality to demand. This empirical finding implies that the environmental conservation policy (Piano Paesaggistico Regionale), adopted by the Region of Sardinia, may be feasible without compromising the number of tourists visiting Sardinia and hence, its economic growth. |
| Keywords: | tourist demand, supply, quality, growth, Granger causality, policy intervention. |
| JEL: | O18 O21 C32 C51 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:200609&r=tur |
| By: | Jansen, Marion |
| Abstract: | Given the sluggish progress in multilateral trade negotiations Southern and Eastern African negotiators are likely to focus their attention on the negotiations of Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. This paper analyses possible advantages and disadvantages for ACP countries of including the services sector in these regional agreements. It describes the latest developments in a number of services sectors, including financial services, tourism and business services. Particular attention is paid to the possible role of mode 4 flows. For each individual sector the role of regulation, the importance of first mover advantages and the possible role of foreign technical assistance are discussed. The paper attempts to identify possible export opportunities for ACP countries and analyses the risks and benefits for these countries of giving preferential access to EU suppliers in those services sectors where African countries are likely to import. |
| Keywords: | Africa; European Union; GATS; regional trade agreements; trade in services |
| JEL: | F13 F15 O19 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5800&r=tur |
| By: | Victor Matheson (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the economics of sports mega-events as well as a review of the existing literature in the field. The paper describes why boosters’ <i>ex ante</i> estimates of the economic impact of large sporting events tend to exaggerate the net economic benefits of these events and surveys the results of a large number of <i>ex post</i> studies of exploring the true impact of mega-events. |
| Keywords: | sports, impact analysis, mega-events |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hcx:wpaper:0610&r=tur |
| By: | Kaul Subhashini |
| Abstract: | Increasingly consumer shopping behaviour is being seen from the holistic perspective of the entire shopping experience. The experiential view of shopping takes a far more holistic approach to the consumption process, right from involvement to post purchase usage, and incorporates the hedonistic perspective into the existing, primarily cognitive- rational information processing view of consumption. Hedonic shopping value refers to the sense of enjoyment and pleasure that the consumer receives from the entire buying experience associated with shopping at a store and this value perception could vary depending on individual shopping orientations, the cultural orientations as well as the economic and competitive environment in which the consumer shops. This paper attempts to understand the impact of all three factors on the purchase behaviour of shoppers by examining hedonic value across different product categories signifying different shopping orientations; across culturally distinct countries; across developing and developed economies; and across different stages of retail evolution. |
| Date: | 2006–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2006-10-04&r=tur |