nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2006‒07‒21
three papers chosen by
Antonello Scorcu
Universita di Bologna

  1. The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study By Andrea Bigano; Jacqueline M. Hamilton; Richard S.J. Tol
  2. Air Travel Choices in Multi-Airport Markets By Jun Ishii; Sunyoung Jun; Kurt Van Dender
  3. Pricing strategies by European traditional and low cost airlines. Or, when is it the best time to book on line? By Claudio A. Piga; Enrico Bachis

  1. By: Andrea Bigano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Jacqueline M. Hamilton (Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science); Richard S.J. Tol (Hamburg University, Vrije Universiteit and Carnegie Mellon University)
    Abstract: We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.
    Keywords: Climate Change, International Tourism, Domestic Tourism
    JEL: L83 Q54
    Date: 2006–06
  2. By: Jun Ishii (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine); Sunyoung Jun (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine); Kurt Van Dender (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)
    Abstract: We estimate a conditional logit model to measure the impact of airport and airline supply characteristics on the air travel choices of passengers departing from one of three San Francisco Bay area airports and arriving at one of four airports in greater Los Angeles in October 1995. Non-price characteristics like airport access time, airport delay, flight frequency, the availability of particular airport-airline combinations, and early arrival times are found to strongly affect choice probabilities. Marginal effects and counterfactual scenarios suggest that changes access in times affect travel choices more than changes in travel delays, and that the preferred airport differs by passenger type. In order to examine the robustness of the conditional logit model, we estimate a mixed logit model, and find that the results are similar. We attribute the similarity to our strictly defined travel market and to our distinction between leisure and business travelers, thus controlling for two important sources of consumer heterogeneity.
    Keywords: Airports; Airlines; Air travel demand; Discrete choice
    JEL: L11 L15 L93 R41
    Date: 2006–02
  3. By: Claudio A. Piga (Dept of Economics, Loughborough University); Enrico Bachis (Business School, Nottingham University)
    Abstract: It is often assumed that the airlines’ fares increase monotonically over time, peaking a few days before the departure. Using fares for about 650 thousand flights operated by both Low-Cost and Full Service Carriers, we show several instances in which the monotonic property does not hold. We also show that the volatility of fares increase in the last four weeks before departure, which is the period when the airlines can formulate a better prediction for a flight’s load factor. Finally, especially within the last two weeks, Full Service Carriers may offer lower fares than those posted by Low Cost Carriers.
    Keywords: on-line pricing; price discrimination; dispersion; yield management.
    JEL: L11 L13 L93
    Date: 2006–07

This nep-tur issue is ©2006 by Antonello Scorcu. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.