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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Carl Bonham (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Christopher Edmonds (East-West Center and Department of Economics at the University of Hawaii at Manoa); James Mak (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent trends in travel and tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii to ascertain how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and subsequent terrible global events affected their tourism flows and the manner and pace of their recovery. We note that tourism in the U.S. has not fully recovered from 9/11 and other international shocks; indeed recovery of international travel to the U.S. may be a long way off. By contrast, Hawaii tourism is enjoying robust growth in the aftermath of 9/11 as growth in tourist arrivals from the U.S. mainland has more than offset declines in Japanese and other international visitors. We suggest that Hawaii's current tourism boom is in part explained by the diversion of U.S. travel from foreign travel. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of vector error correction models to generate dynamic visitor forecasts which we use to ascertain whether tourism in Hawaii has fully recovered from 9/11 and other terrible international events. The paper considers policy options for facilitating the recovery of international tourism to the U.S. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp87&r=tur |
| By: | Christopher Edmonds (East-West Center and Department of Economics at the University of Hawaii at Manoa); James Mak (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews trends in travel and tourism in selected Asia Pacific countries before and after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11) to consider the question of whether or not global tourism has fundamentally changed since 9/11. Tourism is an important economic sector in several Asia Pacific countries and is a "fragile" industry in that it is highly susceptible to external shocks such as wars, outbreaks of deadly contagious diseases, incidents of terrorism, and so on. The first part of the paper presents a stylized picture of industry response following terrorist incidents and other major negative shocks to tourism, and reviews international tourist arrivals at selected Asia Pacific destinations. A richer body of data available for Japan and the U.S. allows examination of the extent of substitution between domestic and international travel, and the impact of changed travel behavior on tourist spending. The paper finds that there has been significant substitution of domestic travel for overseas travel by nationals of both countries after 9/11, and that this has had a dramatic impact on the Hawaii tourism market. The paper explores some of the reasons for the differences observed in post-9/11 travel recoveries across Asia Pacific countries. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp86&r=tur |