|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Amin Shaer; Andres Fielbaum; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | KEYWORDS This study demonstrates the potential of combining computer vision with regular traffic cameras for detecting dangerous driv ing behaviors (DDB). We combine data extracted from 258 h of traffic camera footage across Minnesota with road crash records from 2016–2022. Using computer vision, we identify Dangerous Driving Behavior Indicators (DDBIs), including speeding, short headway, and lane violations—alongside traffic flow, truck counts, and time-to-collision (TTC) metrics. These indicators are analyzed individually and jointly to detect aggressive driving and compound aggressive driving behaviors. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model examines the relationship between DDBIs and the number of instances where TTC falls below two sec onds (NTTC2). A Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) model then links NTTC2 to crash frequency, while Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) explores the broader pathways through which behavioral factors contribute to crash risk. Results show that short headway, speeding, and aggressive driving increase NTTC2, which in turn is positively associated with crashes. These findings suggest that video-based behavior detection can sup port proactive traffic enforcement and crash prevention. Object detection; surrogate safety measures (SSMs); risky driving behavior; road safety; traffic camera; video processing |
| Keywords: | transportation, road transport, traffic safety |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-12 |
| By: | Andrea Rangel (Institut de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (IREGE) and OFCE, University Savoie-Mont Blanc. 4 Chemin de Bellevue, 74940, Annecy, France.); Julie Metta (Research Group Sustainable Development, Faculty of Economics, KU Leuven, Parkstraat 47 bus 5300, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.); Aude Pommeret (Institut de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (IREGE) and OFCE, University Savoie-Mont Blanc. 4 Chemin de Bellevue, 74940, Annecy, France.) |
| Abstract: | The energy transition implies significant changes for the transport sector. In particular, the mobility of households will be largely impacted by public policies aiming at mitigating climate change. However, such policies may have adverse distributional effects that enhance the mobility cost for low-income people or even prevent them from being mobile. Therefore, we build a geographical distribution index based on availability and costs of transportation Ð a Mobility Gini. This index encompasses household heterogeneity towards transportation choices, household value of travel time and comfort, and transportation offers in the different regions. In addition, we develop the Emissions Mobility Gini to account for lack of access to clean transport. To understand the decision-making process of households, we develop a theoretical model of transport choice versus consumption of other goods. With this model, we test the effects of policies for the Just and Clean transition of the transport sector on household choices and their effects on our proposed inequality measures. Thanks to the methods proposed here, we quantify the potential inequality effects of climate policies for the transport transition. |
| Keywords: | value of travel time, transportation cost, redistribution, , household utility choice model, transportation cost, redistribution, household heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R38 R41 D63 R22 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2026.06 |
| By: | Vanda Almeida; Jakub Caisl; Claire Hoffmann; Sebastian Königs; Mauricio Salazar-Lozada; Filippo Brunelli; Alessandro Giordano; Ana I. Moreno-Monroy; Tainá Pacheco |
| Abstract: | Access to enabling services is an important determinant of labour market participation and social inclusion. This paper examines the role of capacity constraints and public transport access in shaping the accessibility of early childhood education and care (ECEC), primary schools and Public Employment Services (PES) at the municipal level and across degrees of urbanisation in Estonia and the Netherlands, drawing on data on service locations, capacity, enrolment and local transport infrastructure. The results confirm a clear urban-rural gradient in physical accessibility. However, proximity alone provides an incomplete picture: people in urban areas benefit from shorter travel times, but high demand pressure and capacity constraints can result in lower competitive accessibility compared to less densely populated areas. In both countries, 13% to 14% of children in primary school face a double disadvantage of longer travel times and below-median competitive accessibility. For PES, geographic disparities in public transport provision can represent a source of vulnerability for people without access to a private motor vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Geographic disparities |
| JEL: | I24 J13 O18 R23 R53 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:333-en |
| By: | Isaac Mann; David M. Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT This paper presents a novel revealed†preference approach to estimating the value of travel time (VTT) and calculating consumer surplus for the economic evaluation of transport infrastructure. Departing from traditional stated†preference models, we derive time valuations by linking residential rental transactions in Greater Sydney to employment accessibility. We estimate a hedonic price function that controls for unobserved amenities and spatial sorting, recovering VTT estimates consistent with current cost†benefit analysis practice. Furthermore, we leverage the non†linearity of the price gradient, as well as cross†market variation in the price gradient, to perform a second†stage regression without instrumental variables, recovering the structural demand function for accessibility. This allows us to quantify welfare changes from non†marginal accessibility shocks, demonstrated on the Sydney Metro West project, grounding project appraisal in revealed spatial behavior. |
| Keywords: | transportation, transport economics, transport networks |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-10 |
| By: | Andrei Makarov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The transportation sector continues to play a vital role in Russia’s socioeconomic development, both in terms of fostering trade and freight transportation and in ensuring territorial connectivity, realizing agglomeration effects, promoting labor mobility, and developing tourism destinations. At the end of 2025, during a speech at the “Transport of Russia†forum, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin noted that the transportation sector’s contribution to Russia’s GDP by year-end could reach about 6% (over Rb13 trillion), and the government will continue large-scale investments in transportation development. Thus, the relevant investments could amount to nearly Rb6 trillion overthree years |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, transportation industry, freight tariffs, passenger traffic, railways |
| JEL: | L91 L92 L93 L99 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2026-1615 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Mongolia has set out ambitious plans to expand its transport infrastructure in the coming years. As climate-related risks such as floods and droughts intensify, ensuring that transport assets are planned and managed in a climate-resilient way will be critical to avoid locking in long-term vulnerabilities and costs. This policy paper presents findings from an OECD policy dialogue conducted in Mongolia on mainstreaming climate resilience into transport infrastructure planning and design. It outlines the rationale for strengthening climate resilience, takes stock of current policy practices and explores options to adapt transport infrastructure to a changing climate. |
| Keywords: | climate adaptation, climate change, climate resilience, infrastructure, transport |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:50-en |
| By: | Hatton, Timothy (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Late nineteenth-century globalisation was fostered by falling transport costs in ocean shipping as average freight rates fell by about half. The literature has emphasised the importance of progress in steamship technology in explaining this trend. Passenger fares did not share this long-run decline even though passenger ships incorporated the same technological advances as those carrying goods. For passenger shipping, increasing space per passenger and improving quality of service absorbed much of the gains from technological progress. From the late 1880s cartels set minimum fares and established market sharing pools, which encouraged the shipping lines to compete on quality. |
| Keywords: | steamships, passenger fares, freight rates |
| JEL: | F22 F55 N73 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18692 |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Jack Collison; Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg; Shanjun Li; Yucheng Wang; Pinelopi Goldberg |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional welfare goals. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, energy security, and climate change, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, trade policy, tariffs, subsidies, energy transition, electric vehicles |
| JEL: | F13 F14 H23 L52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12735 |
| By: | Grzegorz Pakier (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Kateryna Zabarina (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the impact of transport accessibility on the registered unemployment rate. It utilises a transport accessibility index that was previously developed for municipalities in Poland. Analysis of three econometric models revealed that transport accessibility has a significant negative impact on the unemployment rate, which varies across the regions studied. The model using the average transport accessibility of municipalities within a given county showed a stronger relationship with the unemployment rate. This suggests that accessibility at the county level is more important than local accessibility. Furthermore, it was found that the type of municipality had no impact on the strength or direction of the examined relationship. The research confirms that public transport availability significantly influences unemployment levels in Poland, with considerable spatial variation in this relationship. The results emphasise the importance of considering the regional context of transport accessibility when devising anti-unemployment policies. |
| Keywords: | transport accessibility, unemployment rate, geographically weighted regression, transport exclusion, spatial mismatch |
| JEL: | C21 R40 O18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-24 |
| By: | ROMAIN GATÉ (CGEMP, LEDA, CNRS, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, Université PSL, 75016 PARIS, FRANCE); MOHAMED HILAL (INRAE, UMR1041 CESAER, 21019 DIJON, FRANCE) |
| Abstract: | We estimate urban form effects on commuting distances within French urban areas using cross-sectional analysis (1999, 2007 and 2014). A stronger concentration of jobs relative to population within urban areas appears to significantly influence commuting distances. However, our estimates suggest relatively weak effects. Average distances between residence location and workplace would decrease by 10% whether jobs and population were equally distributed within urban areas. Our results show that commuting distances depend on many parameters that differ with spatial distribution of jobs within urban areas (density, demographics and public transport). |
| Keywords: | Formes urbaines, Déplacements domicile-travail, Localisation des emplois, Localisation de la population urbaine, |
| JEL: | R12 R14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2024.06 |
| By: | Pina-Sánchez, Jose (University of Leeds); Tait, Caroline; Beecham, Roger; Zamora, Juan Fonseca |
| Abstract: | The risk of road collision for cyclists and pedestrians is higher in sprawls than in city centres. As a result of commuting, we also suspect that the higher risk of collision caused by residents from car-dependent sprawls is not confined to their own areas but disproportionately imposed on city dwellers. However, due to the absence of direct comparisons we do not know the specific road violence imposed by urban sprawls. This registered report will combine collision data from the Department for Transport and the Urban Grammar Spatial Signatures dataset that characterises geography by form and function to estimate the share of road violence induced by sprawls’ residents within and outside their localities, and relative to levels of road violence generated by city dwellers in England and Wales. Furthermore, using the subset of collisions data including contributory factors, we will provide a lower bound estimate regarding the share of collisions that could be classified as motoring offences. Drawing on these findings we will reassess the widely held beliefs of: i) sprawls as safer than city centres; ii) residents from urban sprawls are more law-abiding than city dwellers; and iii) crime prevention strategies that promote car-dependent developments as effective. |
| Date: | 2026–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:skcfr_v2 |
| By: | Keita Abe; Renato Molina; Kenta Tanaka; Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather is becoming more frequent and severe worldwide, yet its consequences for global trade channels remain an open question. This paper quantifies the cost of extreme weather to maritime trade. Integrating daily typhoon wind-swath data with hundreds of thousands of vessel voyages in Japanese waters, we document that maritime traffic falls by up to roughly 50% on typhoon-exposed open-ocean cells and by about 7% at typhoon-exposed ports. A voyage-level framework identifies $119 million in direct shipping-industry costs over 2013–2021. This disruption implies a total trade-volume welfare loss of $117.8 million. Combining the two channels yields a central total welfare estimate of approximately $237 million. As climate change intensifies, the invisible costs associated with increased extreme weather will scale accordingly, highlighting a vital dimension of climate risk that remains overlooked by adaptation frameworks focused solely on catastrophic land-based destruction. |
| Keywords: | typhoons, maritime shipping, trade costs, natural disasters, Japan, AIS data |
| JEL: | F14 F18 Q54 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12746 |
| By: | Travis Richardson; Steve Bickley; Ho Fai Ben Chan; Benno Torgler; Shamsunnahar Yasmin; Tim Pawlowski |
| Abstract: | Using average vehicle speed data in 10-minute increments at the Traffic Message Channel (TMC) location level, along with precise crash timing and location information, we analyze driving behavior around five Florida stadiums before and after NFL and NBA regular season games from 2015 to 2019. We find no evidence of emotional driving following NBA games, but strong and consistent effects following NFL games, concentrated in predicted-close games that end in disappointing home-team losses -- combining high pre-game suspense with negative outcome valence. These games are associated with significant increases in average vehicle speed within 3 km of stadiums during the first post-game hour, dissipating with increasing time and distance from the stadium. Average vehicle speed increases by up to 3 mph relative to predicted-close games that ended in a win -- an effect several times larger than the typical game day versus non-game day speed differential. Overall, our results highlight how the combination of sustained suspense and negative outcome valence in close sporting contests can spill over into risky post-game driving behavior, underscoring the behavioral and public safety implications of affective cues in large-scale sporting events. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.18805 |
| By: | Helft, Christoph; Hülz, Martina; Kirschner, Franziska; Matthes, Gesa; Molter, Uli; Pantoulier, Benjamin; Scheiner, Joachim; Widemann, Marc |
| Abstract: | Öfentliche Parkfächen für Kraftfahrzeuge beanspruchen einen erheblichen Anteil des knappen öfentlichen Raums, obwohl viele Menschen in Städten kein eigenes Auto besitzen. Das Vorhalten von Parkfächen für private Kfz gehört nicht zur allgemeinen Daseinsvorsorge, sondern ist eine politisch gestaltbare Nutzung öfentlicher Flächen. Die Kommunen verfügen bereits heute über wirksame Instrumente, Parken sozial gerecht, efzient und im Einklang mit Klima-, Mobilitäts- und Aufenthaltszielen zu steuern. So können Flächen gerechter verteilt, die Verkehrssicherheit erhöht und lebenswerte öfentliche Räume für alle geschafen werden. |
| Abstract: | Public parking spaces for motor vehicles occupies a substantial share of scarce public space, although many urban residents do not own a car. Providing parking for private vehicles does not fall under essential public services, but represents a politically regulated use of public space. Municipalities already have efective tools to manage parking in a socially equitable and efcient way, in line with climate, mobility and urban livability goals. This allows redistribute space more fairly, improve road safety and create more livable public spaces for everyone. |
| Keywords: | Parkraummanagement, öfentliche Räume, Bewohnerparken, Verkehrsgerechtigkeit, kommunale Steuerung, lebenswerte Städte, Mobilitätswende, Parking management, Public space, Residential parking, Transport justice, Municipal governance, Livable cities, Mobility transition |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:341629 |
| By: | Deakin, Elizabeth; Terplan, Egon; Najjar, Maya; Exon Smith, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated hybrid and remote work and online shopping. These changes caused a sharp decline in activity and transit use in downtowns across California, particularly in transit-oriented downtowns that account for a large share of statewide ridership. This decline has major implications for climate commitments, equity, and the economy. Public officials and business leaders are pursuing a range of strategies to revitalize downtowns and support transit recovery. However, transit ridership has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt507998n9 |
| By: | Volker, Jamey; Kim, Keuntae; Hosseinzade, Reyhane |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt88q0r0c6 |
| By: | Capucine-Marin Dubroca-Voisin (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées, AREP Flux et Mobilités - AREP) |
| Abstract: | There is an increasing need for crowd management in French railway stations. We propose three thought experiments to envision its future: a prospective exercise, insights from the economic approach of commons, and the notion of wicked problems. We show that governance and the creation of collaborative spaces will be key for future changes |
| Keywords: | Crowd, Transport -- Planification, Management - Strategy |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05659765 |
| By: | Omar Ait Ezzi (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Kamal Chakir (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Hassan Rehaimi (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | In a context where young Moroccan graduates face growing challenges in entering the labor market, access to public transportation emerges as a critical yet often overlooked factor. In Greater Agadir-including the municipalities of Aït Melloul, Inezgane, and Dcheira-El Jihadia-the unequal distribution of urban transport infrastructure raises questions about its actual influence on employability.This article addresses the following research question: To what extent does access to public transportation influence employment opportunities for young graduates in Greater Agadir? To investigate this, a mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining a quantitative survey of 126 young graduates with qualitative semi-structured interviews. Data analysis was conducted using statistical tools such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), logistic regression, and chi-square tests, with the help of SPSS software.Findings reveal that regularity, cost, and network coverage significantly affect job-seeking efforts. Young people living in poorly served areas have reduced chances of employment integration, which amplifies territorial inequalities.These insights highlight the need to incorporate mobility concerns into employment and urban planning policies, especially in rapidly growing urban areas such as Agadir. |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte où les jeunes diplômés marocains rencontrent de plus en plus de difficultés d'insertion professionnelle, l'accès aux transports publics constitue un facteur souvent négligé mais déterminant. À Agadir et ses communes limitrophes (Aït Melloul, Inezgane, Dcheira-El Jihadia), l'inégale répartition des réseaux de transport urbain interroge sur son impact réel sur l'employabilité des jeunes. Partant de ce constat, cet article pose la question suivante : dans quelle mesure l'accès aux transports publics influence-t-il les opportunités d'emploi des jeunes diplômés dans les grandes communes du Grand Agadir ? Pour y répondre, une approche mixte a été adoptée, combinant une enquête quantitative menée auprès de 126 jeunes diplômés et des entretiens qualitatifs. Les données ont été analysées à l'aide d'outils statistiques (ACP, régression logistique, test du khi-deux) via le logiciel SPSS. Les résultats montrent que la régularité, le coût et la couverture du réseau de bus jouent un rôle significatif dans la recherche d'emploi. Les jeunes résidant dans les zones les moins desservies ont des chances d'insertion réduites, renforçant ainsi les inégalités territoriales. Ces constats soulignent l'importance d'intégrer les enjeux de mobilité dans les politiques d'insertion professionnelle et d'aménagement urbain, en particulier dans les villes en expansion comme Agadir. |
| Keywords: | Public transport, young graduates, professional integration, urban mobility, Mobilité urbaine, insertion professionnelle, jeunes diplômés, Transport public |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05557061 |
| By: | Maurer, Stephan (UPF Barcelona School of Management); Milsom, Luke (KU Leuven); Rauch, Ferdinand (University of St. Gallen) |
| Abstract: | We use a parsimonious gravity framework to simulate and compare five potential shocks to the global shipping system: closures of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca, and openings of the Northwest Passage and a hypothetical Kra Canal. Applying a single, consistent methodology across all five scenarios allows relative comparisons. Using carefully measured seaborne distances between ports under each hypothetical geography, we find that a Panama closure would be the most consequential shock, reducing global trade by nearly 3% compared to a default gravity prediction, followed by Suez (2.5%), Malacca, (1.7%), a Kra opening (+0.7%), and the Northwest Passage (+0.6%). Aggregate GDP and welfare effects are more muted, but show sizable heterogeneity across countries. For example, Panama loses over 9% of GDP from a Panama closure, Egypt and Sudan over 5% from Suez, and Malaysia over 4% from Malacca. |
| Keywords: | gravity, Panama, Suez, Kra, Malacca, Northwest Passage |
| JEL: | F14 F17 O18 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18693 |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages variation in the access to the Mexican railroad network in the early 1900s to estimate its impact on migration to the United States and evaluate its long-run persistence after passenger rail service became obsolete. Using an IV strategy based on least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that locations with railroad access had migration rates four times higher than those without in the early twentieth century. Sequential migration was the key mechanism: railroads first facilitated internal mobility toward railroad hubs, then onward migration to the US. Railroad access also contributed to structural transformation, raising urbanization and local economic development. In terms of persistence, locations with historical railroad access show weakly lower total migration rates to the US in the early 21st century, consistent with local economic growth reducing the incentive to migrate. Yet destination-specific patterns prove remarkably durable: locations that disproportionately sent migrants to California, Arizona, or Texas in the 1900s continued to do so in the 2000s, reflecting the persistence of migrant networks. |
| JEL: | J60 N36 N76 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35358 |
| By: | Kim, Hyunseok |
| Abstract: | Weak total factor productivity (TFP) growth has become a central concern in explaining sluggish growth performance, particularly in emerging-market and low-income economies. At the same time, constrained fiscal and investment conditions have increased the importance of using scarce public resources effectively. These conditions make it important to investigate, from a cross-country perspective, what is associated with productivity performance and what shapes productivity losses during adverse shocks. The paper examines this issue along two margins: a structural margin focused on transportation infrastructure, a public-investment-intensive form of capital that may enhance productive efficiency, and a resilience margin through which governance and infrastructure may shape the productivity costs of adverse shocks. Using annual cross-country panel data for more than 100 countries and a dynamic panel system GMM framework, the analysis finds that transportation infrastructure is positively associated with TFP, with larger estimated payoffs in lower-income countries. Severe crises are associated with larger productivity losses in poorer economies, but stronger rule of law and political stability are linked to smaller losses in the lowest-income quartile. Road infrastructure is also associated with smaller productivity losses during moderate downturns. The findings suggest that the productivity relevance of transportation infrastructure is greater where development constraints are more binding, while governance and infrastructure shape productivity costs during adverse episodes. |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11410 |
| By: | Joseph Nyangon |
| Abstract: | The global push for electric vehicles (EVs) has sharply increased demand for critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium, creating a tension between rapid industrial growth and long-term sustainability. Extraction is concentrated in a few regions -- notably the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chile, and Argentina -- where it has produced serious socio-environmental harms, including ecosystem degradation, labour exploitation, and the displacement of Indigenous communities. In the DRC, cobalt mining is frequently linked to child labour and hazardous working conditions; in Chile, lithium extraction intensifies water scarcity and threatens local agriculture and biodiversity. Policy instruments such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) seek to promote ethical sourcing, but an extraction-driven model continues to deepen global inequalities. This chapter examines the contested temporalities of the transition, in which the short-term economic incentives of extraction conflict with longer-term environmental and social goals. It argues for a place-based framework built on community-centred governance, sustainable mining practices, and circular-economy strategies, including recycling and material substitution, to align resource security with equity and ensure that the shift to EVs does not reproduce the injustices it aims to address. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.24356 |
| By: | Silvian M. Radke; Philipp C. Verpoort; Falko Ueckerdt; Felix M\"usgens |
| Abstract: | Despite growing concerns over energy security, infrastructure planning and modelling for emerging green fuel supply chains often neglect risks from supply disruptions. Using a stochastic optimisation model of EU hydrogen imports, we show that 'naive' infrastructure planning results in welfare losses of 12 % (24 billion EUR) compared to risk-aware planning that anticipates supply disruptions. Despite requiring higher upfront investments, anticipatory planning achieves welfare levels close to those of an idealised system without disruptions, but entails a markedly different infrastructure configuration. Two complementary resilience strategies emerge: diversification across import corridors and strategic over-investment. This leads to increased intra-European transport capacity, a broader set of import pipelines, and investments in costly shipping terminals for hydrogen carriers. Our results show that incorporating supply risk considerations into infrastructure planning helps prevent the structural vulnerabilities seen in fossil fuel systems when designing future hydrogen supply chains. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.09190 |
| By: | Bertolotti, Fabio; Lanteri, Andrea; Yoon, Hyeonsik |
| Abstract: | We analyze optimal subsidies for the replacement of durable assets in a model with heterogeneous producers, endogenous capital-embodied innovation, and environmental externalities that depend on capital vintages. We characterize the constrained-efficient allocation assuming a planner chooses capital replacement subject to the equilibrium evolution of innovation. Optimal subsidies equal the sum of two terms: (i) the difference in present discounted value of damages associated with old vs. new capital and (ii) the social value of innovation induced by capital replacement, net of the associated markup distortion. We generalize this formula to the case of new technologies, such as electric vehicles. We calibrate the model using empirical evidence on several types of capital, including aircraft and vehicles, and simulate the optimal transition. Initially, optimal subsidies are steeply increasing in the age of the replaced asset. In the long run, they are determined by the trade-off between innovation and markups. |
| Keywords: | Optimal policy; Environmental externalities; Innovation |
| JEL: | O44 O33 Q55 E22 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21578 |
| By: | Musonera, Abdou; Nsabimana, Aimable; Overbeck, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that infrastructure investments enhance local tax outcomes. The analysis draws on a novel dataset combining information on the location and timing of all road upgrades in Rwanda with 12 years of administrative tax and census records, it estimates large and significant increases in tax revenues in municipalities near upgraded roads. These effects are driven by firm entry as well as land value appreciation, captured through taxes on rental income at the local level. Finally, the paper shows that although the additional revenues do not fully recover the central government’s initial investment, local municipalities’ revenues more than double within five years following the upgrades. |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11405 |
| By: | Michael Keller; Christopher R. Knittel; Benjamin Krebs; Simon Luechinger |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of PM₂.₅ pollution on migration between commuting zones in the United States from 2005-2019. To account for the correlation between origin and destination commuting zones’ pollution levels and potential endogeneity, we estimate a dyadic migration model and isolate permanent changes in origin and destination pollution emanating from distant coal-fired power plants. Annual panel and long-difference estimates indicate that air pollution plays a key role in relocation decisions. For the typical commuting zone, an isolated average 2005-2019 PM₂.₅ concentration decrease of 3.85 μg/m³ would avert out-migration and increase in-migration, totaling 2 percent of the population annually. |
| JEL: | Q53 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35317 |
| By: | Robert D. Lieberthal (Thomas Jefferson University; Lieberthal & Associates, LLC); Sabin Ahmed (The MITRE Corporation); David M. Hechtman (The MITRE Corporation); Lauren R. Indrisano (Elevance Health); Douglas R. Amirault (The MITRE Corporation); Susan Haas (The MITRE Corporation); Varun Saraswathula (Congressional Research Service) |
| Abstract: | Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) provide rapid access to critical care but are costly to operate and difficult to sustain financially. A clear understanding of these costs is essential for evaluating the feasibility and design of population-based funding or policy strategies. We developed a two-part model: (1) a cost framework capturing capital and operating expenses (e.g., aircraft, equipment, labor, facilities), and (2) an actuarial revenue model using healthcare encounter data and payer reimbursement rates. The model was applied to a commercially insured Massachusetts population (3.9M lives), using provider charge data and Medicare fee schedules. We analyzed breakeven transport volumes under varying reimbursement and labor cost assumptions, including sensitivity scenarios. Under optimistic assumptions (full charge realization, minimal overhead), breakeven is reached with approximately 90 annual transports. More realistic scenarios, incorporating commercial reimbursement at 50% of charges and full 24/7 staffing, require 184 transports. If labor costs are doubled or Medicare rates are used exclusively, breakeven thresholds exceed 1, 000 transports per year. A Monte Carlo simulation (10, 000 iterations) confirmed the robustness of these thresholds: the median simulated breakeven was 190 transports under commercial reimbursement, closely matching the deterministic base case. The 90th percentile reached 304 (commercial) and 1, 066 (Medicare) annual transports. HEMS programs are highly sensitive to labor costs and payer reimbursement levels. Sustainable operation requires more transport volume than previously estimated, especially when reimbursement is constrained or staffing costs increase. This model provides a transparent, replicable tool to inform financial planning, policy evaluation, and payer negotiations for air medical services. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.13981 |
| By: | Ahmed Al Asheq (Maynooth University - National University of Ireland Maynooth); Rajibul Hasan (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Joseph Coughlan (Maynooth University - National University of Ireland Maynooth) |
| Abstract: | Virtual influencers (VIs) are a novel, increasingly popular and successful marketing tool in the digital marketing landscape, specifically in the domain of travel destination marketing. However, how social networking site (SNS) users respond to VI marketing in the travel sector remains underexplored. To address this gap, we systematically identified, empirically tested, and compared nine theories to understand the drivers of social networking site users' visit intentions toward VI-promoted destinations. Using an online survey, we collected responses from 419 active SNS users and analyzed our data using partial least squares structural equation modeling, followed by a qualitative study (n = 18). Social power theory and parasocial interaction theory exhibited the highest explanatory power. Our research contributes to travel literature through deepening our understanding of the mechanisms by which VIs can influence visit intention, which is important for travel professionals' understanding of VIs' use in attracting a demographic that immerses themselves in social media. |
| Keywords: | Anthropomorphism, Parasocial interaction, Model comparison, Social networking site (SNS), Visit intention, Virtual influencers (VIs) |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05637454 |
| By: | Marc Ringel (Nuertingen-Geislingen University - Partenaires INRAE, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SDCT - European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Sarah Thompson (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SDCT - European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency is the cornerstone of European energy policies. The 2023 recast of the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) raises the ambition of EU energy efficiency policies at a time of energy insecurity, high import costs and decarbonisation pressure. This brief asks whether the revised Directive is fit to deliver on these aspects. Drawing on expert stakeholder assessments, it argues that the Directive in its present revision comes closer to fit for purpose but fails to address crucial elements. Stakeholders are cautiously optimistic about energy savings and expect the strongest effects in the public sector and buildings. Likewise, they expect co-benefits for supply security, energy poverty and energy bills. On the other hand, stakeholders are less convinced that the EED will sufficiently reduce fossil fuel use or address the transport and agriculture sectors, which are closely locked into fossil fuel use. Also, implementation barriers persist. Stakeholders put a priority on implementing the 2023 framework consistently before reopening the legislative cycle. A future redesign of the EED should target fossil-fuel savings, especially in transport, in a more explicit manner. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, energy policy |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05654055 |