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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Gleser, Michael; Elbert, Ralf |
| Abstract: | Combined rail-road transport, with its complex regulatory, infrastructural, organizational and technical environment, presents numerous opportunities for practical improvements and impactful research. A strengthening of this transport mode can serve rising transport demands and make freight transport more ecologically sustainable. Due to the complex nature of combined transport systems, there are various possibilities for improvement, of which a subset of 27 measures have been identified in a Delphi study. Synthesized with a systematic literature review for the last decade of combined transport research, a practice-oriented research agenda was developed, providing guidance for further research. Six research topics have been identified, ranging from the assessment of sustainability policies, digital platforms, seamless cross-border traffic, human factor, changing terminal roles and technological developments in rail transport. |
| Date: | 2026–07–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:161432 |
| By: | Rishabh Singh Chauhan; Mahdi Ghadimi; Lishun Liu |
| Abstract: | Objectives: While causal analysis of travel behavior is an emerging field, estimating heterogeneity in mode choice through causal modeling remains unexplored. This study demonstrates the application of a novel causal method, causal forest, to quantify the heterogeneity in travel mode choice shifts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We applied causal forests, a non-parametric causal machine learning method, to 802, 935 trip records from the 2017 and 2022 waves of the National Household Travel Survey. The 2017 wave serves as the pre-pandemic control group, while the 2022 wave represents the treatment condition. Within the potential outcomes framework, we estimate average treatment effects (ATE), heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) across diverse socio-demographic groups and trip characteristics. Findings: Our results reveal an estimated ATE of a 1.86 percentage point (pp) increase in car-mode share, contrasted with decreases of 0.38 pp and 1.57 pp in public transit and walking, respectively. The largest increases in car use appeared for short-distance trips (one mile or less), households with annual incomes exceeding USD 200, 000, and female travelers. Novelty: This is one of the first applications of causal forests to travel mode choice, and the first to use causal machine learning to estimate the pandemic's causal effect on mode choice analysis. Practical Applications: This study discusses methodological advantages, inherent assumptions, and limitations of causal forests within the context of transportation planning. This methodology is applied to COVID-19 travel data to illustrate how causal heterogeneity analysis can offer a deeper understanding of changes in mode choice. These insights are valuable for planners and policymakers in making policies related to mode shifts under an intervention. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.04208 |
| By: | Javaudin Lucas; Araldo Andrea; Coulombel Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Intra-household joint home-based tours - trips in which household members depart together, engage in shared activities, and return together - represent a significant share of daily travel, yet are systematically ignored in transport simulations. Conflating joint and solo tours within a single mode choice framework introduces bias in preference parameter estimates. This paper proposes a three-step methodology to integrate joint tours in agent-based transport models: a Random Forest classifier to identify joint tours, a Multinomial Logit model estimating mode choice specific to joint tours, and a Penalized Logistic Regression for driver/passenger assignment. Applied to the Paris region using household travel survey data, the methodology successfully replicates observed joint tour shares and mode distributions in a synthetic population. The proposed framework enables more reliable evaluation of policies whose impacts differ between joint and solo travel, such as HOV lanes or family transit fare discounts. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.18657 |
| By: | John Lewis (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Using a gravity framework with internal trade flows, I find that travel restrictions translated into large and economically meaningful increases in the cost of trading goods across borders. Travel restrictions operated like a classic border friction, with a full closure reducing bilateral trade by around 19% for a typical country pair and implying a hit to global trade of approximately 23% in 2020 Q2. The effects are highly heterogeneous with respect to distance and transport mode: geographically proximate trading partners experienced larger trade losses and trade flows by road and air were significantly disrupted, while seaborne and rail trade were not. The interaction between distance and transport exposure generates substantial cross-country variation in the overall trade impact of border closures, and explains why some countries were able to close their borders at a (much) lower cost to trade flows than others. There is no evidence of long run scarring effects from restrictions, rather trade rebounded strongly with a temporary ‘overshooting’ once restrictions were eased. |
| Keywords: | Trade;border frictions;transportation mode;Covid-19 |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F18 |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023311 |
| By: | Carsten Philipp Brockhaus; Julian Hinz; Charles Serfaty |
| Abstract: | Who bears the cost when a maritime chokepoint is disrupted? Combining ship-level AIS trajectories, port-call logs, freight indices, customs data and Turkish shipment-level data, we document the trade effects of the 2023 Red Sea crisis: seaborne trade between affected country pairs fell, rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, and recovered within months as freight costs surged, while some exporters shifted persistently toward air freight. We build a quantitative trade model in which freight costs are endogenous to modal and route choice through congestion, a global shipping capacity constraint, and monopoly toll-setting by canal authorities. Calibrated to observed route choices and canal revenues, the model implies that a permanent Red Sea closure lowers global real income only mildly. Because the Suez Canal Authority, pricing to maximize revenue, already captures much of the route's surplus, the loss falls on the toll collector: Egypt forgoes 3.0 percent of real income, almost all of it canal rent, while the large trading economies each lose less than 0.02 percent. A transit fee on the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint without maritime substitutes, instead concentrates losses on the Gulf economies themselves. Whether a chokepoint has substitutes, and who prices it, jointly determine who pays for its disruption. |
| Keywords: | Shipping Routes; Chokepoint Disruptions; Red Sea Crisis; Endogenous Trade Costs; Monopoly Tolls |
| JEL: | F14 F17 R41 F62 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1057 |
| By: | Sebastien Bradley; Mian Dai; Blaize Giangiulio; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We study the spillover effects of the 2025 “Liberation Day” automotive tariffs on the untaxed U.S. used-car market. Using over eight million weekly listings and a VIN-based crosswalk identifying each vehicle’s country of assembly, we document an immediate and persistent 0.2–0.6% increase in the prices of foreign-brand used vehicles relative to domestic-brand vehicles. The effect is concentrated among the newest vehicles — the closest substitutes for new cars — consistent with demand-side substitution. We also find that foreign-brand vehicles produced in the U.S. appreciate as much as those assembled abroad, suggesting that the perceived foreignness of used vehicles may be largely independent of true production location. Neglecting tariff pass-through to untaxed product substitutes understates overall consumer incidence. |
| Keywords: | tariffs, tariff incidence, spillover effects, used cars, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L62 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12948 |
| By: | Wiwattanakornwong, Kunakorn; Eamphoo, Monthian; Saetang, Kanticha; Srichaiwongyot, Pattarawet; Matpang, Paerphon |
| Abstract: | This study examines Thailand’s strategic pathway toward low-carbon agricultural logistics by analyzing the sector’s structural characteristics, operational constraints, technological readiness, and policy conditions. The findings show that Thailand’s agricultural logistics system remains highly dependent on road freight, which accounts for more than 80.75% of total domestic freight movement, while agricultural logistics represents the largest freight category at 41.7% of total transport volume. Although this structure supports flexibility and broad market access, it also reinforces a carbon-intensive logistics pattern. The system remains deeply locked into fossil fuel dependence, as more than 77% of the truck fleet relies on diesel, and new truck registrations continue to rise by approximately 70, 000 units annually. While this structure provides flexibility and extensive market access, it also generates a carbon-intensive logistics pattern and limits progress toward more sustainable freight systems. The analysis further reveals that the transition is confronted by multiple challenges, including vehicle-related emissions, persistent modal imbalance, limited readiness for low-emission freight technologies, underutilized supply chain efficiency measures, and fragmented policy implementation collectively constrain the development of low-carbon agricultural logistics. In response, the study proposes a five-pillar strategic framework consisting of direct road freight decarbonization, gradual modal rebalancing, targeted technological readiness support, system-wide green supply chain improvement, and integrated governance. The study argues that low-carbon agricultural logistics should be treated not merely as an environmental issue, but as a strategic development agenda linking freight reform, infrastructure modernization, institutional coordination, and long-term competitiveness. These findings contribute to policy discussions on sustainable freight transition and provide practical implications for strengthening Thailand’s agricultural logistics system in line with climate and development goals. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nccc26:409066 |
| By: | Meryam Amarir |
| Abstract: | Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics infrastructure capable of better withstanding shocks. In this context, corridors are no longer merely transport routes but also instruments of economic security and competitiveness. This shift opens up new prospects for Africa’s Atlantic façade. Thanks to its geographical position, the gradual modernization of its port infrastructure, and the development of regional cooperation initiatives, Africa’s Atlantic façade has several assets that could strengthen its role within international trade networks. However, this opportunity will depend on states’ ability to improve connectivity between existing infrastructure, deepen cooperation, and build more integrated logistics networks. Africa’s Atlantic façade could thus emerge as an area that contributes to strengthening the resilience of global connectivity chains. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb46_26_2 |
| By: | Jorrit Gosens; Alex B. H. Turnbull; Frank Jotzo |
| Abstract: | There is renewed attention for maritime chokepoints and their potential disruption of global trade in energy. We analyse global trade in coal, and find that it is highly resilient to maritime chokepoints. Feasible chokepoints do not truly sever any supply from the seaborne market. Potential re-routing of trade flows, and switching to alternative suppliers or consumers moderates effects on costs and revenues. We assess costs to importers would rise by as little as 0.5 \$/t or less in case of closures of most feasible chokepoints. The exception is a restriction to maritime traffic in the South and East China Sea, which could raise costs by 10 \$/t for China, whilst reducing costs for other importers in the region by similar levels. Maritime chokepoints do create geographical separation of regional markets, and therefore do not have a globally uniform effect on costs to importers and revenues to exporters. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.00328 |
| By: | Bläser, Nikolaj (Dept. of People and Technology, Roskilde University); Magnussen, Búgvi Benjamin (Dept. of People and Technology, Roskilde University); Fuentes, Gabriel (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Reinhardt, Line (Dept. of People and Technology, Roskilde University); Lindén, Anders (Research Department, TORM A/S) |
| Abstract: | Tramp shipping is a key part of the maritime industry which operates mainly in the spot market relying on voyage-by-voyage contracting, which forces them to reposition frequently in search of favourable cargoes. Market dynamics therefore emerge from how regional cargo demand aligns with the shifting distribution of available vessels. Forming multi-month forecasts of this evolving relationship between demand and supply is essential for market participants seeking to respond to rapidly changing market conditions. The supply side of the relationship remains relatively unexplored, particularly addressing vessels reposition and evolvement of regional availability over time. Bridging this gap, this paper introduces a simulation-based framework that models behaviour at the individual-vessel level and generates forward-looking forecasts of regional tramp-hipping supply over a 90-day horizon. The regional tramp shipping vessel supply prediction is presented through a mathematical formulation and an agent-based framework in which each vessel acts as an autonomous agent responding to market conditions is developed. To this end Neural network-based stochastic estimators of vessel behaviour are produced from historical data and used to simulate vessel-level decisions, yielding coherent forecasts of regional vessel supply. The framework is evaluated on the clean petroleum products market using datasets spanning the period 2020-01-01 to 2024-06-30. The results are compared with a regression benchmark relying on macro-economic variables, and the developed framework show to achieve higher supply prediction accuracy in 23 of 24 region-(vessel-segment) combinations, reducing average mean absolute percentage error from 13.01% to 4.79%. |
| Keywords: | Tramp shipping; Fleet simulation; Vessel supply prediction; Supply demand dynamics; Stochastic modelling |
| JEL: | C44 C63 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_010 |
| By: | Jonathan Hall; Jason Hicks; Morris M. Kleiner; Yun taek Oh |
| Abstract: | We examine whether occupational licensing improves service quality and safety using trip-level Uber data that include driver ratings and telematics-based measures of driving behavior. Exploiting quasi-random assignment from proximity-based dispatch, we compare trips served by licensed and unlicensed drivers in two settings: a cross-border comparison between New York City and New Jersey, and a deregulation event in Houston. Across settings and specifications, including instrumental variable estimates, we find no consistent evidence that licensing improves consumer outcomes. In Houston, post-deregulation entrants are indistinguishable from previously licensed drivers on ratings and driving behavior, despite differing markedly in experience and age. |
| JEL: | J0 J44 J48 J89 K29 L10 L8 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35635 |
| By: | Manthé, Elodie (University Savoie Mont-Blanc) |
| Abstract: | This research note introduces a new image-based tool that integrates inspiration and co-creation in tourist decision-making. Grounded in prospective memory – a concept developed in psychology literature- the tool enables participants to mentally simulate and visualize a future trip, constructing a fictitious travel diary through illustrated cards. This approach serves as both a research method for studying decision-making processes and a practical tool for tourism professionals. We explore its theoretical foundations, applications, and potential to enhance tourist engagement and travel booking experiences. |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2bnjz_v1 |
| By: | Kamble, Vikrant V.; Motghare, Swapnil |
| Abstract: | We estimate the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply for New York City taxicab drivers using a new instrument: the type of taximeter installed in the vehicle. The two meter systems in use display different default tip percentages, generating plausibly exogenous variation in tip income and hourly pay across shifts. Assignment to the "high-default" meter raises hourly wages by 0.5 percent, entirely through tips, and increases shift hours by 0.9 percent, implying an elasticity of 1.7. These findings align with the standard neoclassical prediction that workers supply more hours when temporary pay rises and shed light on labor-supply behavior in flexible, schedule-setting work environments more broadly. |
| Keywords: | labor supply, Frisch elasticity, intertemporal substitution, taxi drivers, tipping, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | J22 J31 D15 D91 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1809 |