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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Dion, Francois PhD; Gan, Qijian PhD |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the operational and network-level impacts of changes to High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) and High-Occupancy Toll (HOT) lane eligibility policies along a 15-mile segment of Interstate 210 (I-210) in Los Angeles County. Using a calibrated microsimulation model in Aimsun Next, the research examined both supply-side and demand-side strategies to assess their influence on corridor travel times, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT), and overall network performance. Supply-side scenarios evaluated the effects of restricting lane eligibility to HOV3+ or higher, converting existing HOV2+ lanes to HOT2+ lanes with dynamic tolling, adding new HOT lanes, and converting general-purpose lanes to HOT lanes. Results indicate that tightening eligibility improves HOV lane performance but leads to excessive queuing and unmet demand. Conversion to HOT2+ with dynamic tolling improves efficiency only when tolling operations are properly managed. Adding HOT capacity yields the greatest systemwide benefit, while converting a general-purpose lane to HOT capacity reduces throughput. Demand-side scenarios assessed increased vehicle occupancy, higher traffic demand, and variations in travelers’ value of time. Behavioral changes alone were found insufficient to offset congestion impacts without structural improvements or major shifts in travel behavior. The study concludes that combining supply-side enhancements—such as lane additions and optimized tolling—with moderate demand management provides the most effective and sustainable strategy to reduce congestion, improve reliability, and support Senate Bill 743 (SB 743) objectives for corridor efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, OV lanes, HOT lanes, Dynamic tolling, Managed lanes, Traffic simulation |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1rt8s9xf |
| By: | Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Hall, Jonathan D.; Wheeler, Harrison; Williams, Rik |
| Abstract: | We study how ride-hailing and public transit interact – an open question with importantimplications for transportation policy and urban form. We develop a model of mode choice that features three key mechanisms: (i) substitution, whereby riders switch from Uber to transit near stations; (ii) last-mile complementarity, whereby Uber is used to access transit; and (iii) a dynamic choice-set effect, whereby outbound mode choice constrains return options, givingUber option value. Using proprietary Uber trip data around 650 rail station openings worldwide, we estimate how ride-hailing responds when public transit improves. We document three patterns consistent with these mechanisms: Uber usage rises sharply within 100 meters of new stations (last-mile complementarity), declines locally among nearby residents and workers (substitution), and falls modestly overall for these users as local reductions are partially offsetby increased Uber usage elsewhere (option value). Estimating the model on these moments, we find that all three channels are quantitatively important, with substitution the largest individualchannel but last-mile complementarity and option value together more than offsetting it, so that Uber and transit are net complements. Policy implications include: (a) a ride-hailing tax induces users to switch to private vehicles rather than transit; (b) a subsidy for last-mile ride-hailing trips is more effective at increasing transit use when it targets the per-kilometercost rather than the fixed cost; and (c) increases in transit use are best induced by a congestion charge that subsidizes transit fares rather than by policies relying on ride-hailing taxes and/or last-mile subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, ride-hailing, subways, public transit |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt29v1x3gc |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal; Yi Fan; Qiuxia Gao |
| Abstract: | To achieve carbon neutrality, electrifying vehicles in a cleaner electricity grid has become a key pathway for global cities. While extensive research has examined the environmental benefits of electric vehicles (EVs), their financial impacts remain underexplored. Using Singapore-a smart city-state - as a social laboratory, we combine high-resolution data on the geographic distribution of EV chargers with nearly 1 million individual-level monthly expenditure records from a major commercial bank and about 65, 000 housing transaction records, spanning January 2019 to March 2021. Our results show that proximity to charging stations during the initial phase of EV infrastructure rollout significantly increases household consumption by 1-3%. This effect is driven primarily by public housing residents, who are generally more financially constrained than their private housing counterparts. We identify three channels underlying this increase in consumption: appreciation in housing wealth, catalysts for commercial activity and discretionary spending around EV infrastructure, and budget reallocation from fuel expenses to other consumption categories. Notably, hybrid car owners exhibit the strongest trade-offs-reducing fuel spending while increasing expenditure on entertainment or necessity goods among public housing residents. Overall, our findings demonstrate that green infrastructure can shape economic behavior and enhance consumer welfare, extending its impact beyond environmental objectives. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.19034 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Ricardo Marto; Yiliang Li; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it. Using satellite vessel-tracking data, we construct route-level measures of potential and effective capacity for all U.S.-bound container ships from 2016 to 2025. Uti-lization losses in recent disruptions ran 20 to 40 percentage points, and began months before port congestion became visible. We embed these measures in a general equilibrium model in which firms reallocate a common fleet without internalizing the congestion they create and price above marginal cost, while importers’ sourcing responds to route profitability. The reallocation triggered by a disruption then has first-order welfare effects, and the route’s Do-mar weight is not a sufficient statistic for its welfare cost. The 2021 West Coast crisis and the 2023–2024 Red Sea attacks cost 0.69% and 0.35% of output. Naval protection of Red Sea shipping generated benefits of 0.04–0.08% of output at a fiscal cost of 0.02%. Tariffs decongest the routes they tax, offsetting or even reversing their conventional welfare cost. |
| Keywords: | AIS, shipping disruptions, shipping capacity, maritime transportation, general equilibrium, supply chains, trade policy |
| JEL: | E23 F12 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12998 |
| By: | Bharati, Sudhir; Kafle, Prabesh; Khatiwada, Stuti |
| Abstract: | Objectives: This study synthesizes current evidence on protected bike lane design to examine how design characteristics influence cyclist safety, mobility, and unintended consequences. The review evaluates whether facility performance varies according to separation type, directionality, buffer width, intersection treatment, and roadway context. Methods: A structured narrative literature review was conducted using Google Scholar to identify relevant studies published through March–April 2026. 150 publications were screened, and 66 studies were included following title, abstract, and full-text review. Findings: The reviewed literature shows that protected bike lanes improve cyclist safety and encourage cycling. These benefits depend on design quality rather than the simple presence of physical separation. Facilities with continuous physical separation, adequate buffers, and well designed intersection treatments yielded the greatest safety benefits. Interrupted protection and poorly managed conflict points reduced effectiveness. Protected facilities produced larger increases in cycling than conventional bike lanes, particularly within connected, low stress networks. Reported unintended consequences such as congestion, business impacts, and public opposition were generally smaller than commonly perceived. These issues were more often associated with implementation and operational challenges rather than the infrastructure itself. Novelty: Unlike previous reviews that primarily compare protected and conventional bicycle facilities, this review synthesizes evidence across safety, mobility, and implementation outcomes to demonstrate that protected bike lanes should be evaluated according to specific design characteristics rather than as a single infrastructure category. Practical Applications: The review provides evidence-based guidance for transportation agencies by identifying design features that consistently improve performance and highlighting the importance of context-sensitive planning, intersection design, network connectivity, and standardized post-implementation evaluation to support future bicycle infrastructure investments. |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ytrjd_v1 |
| By: | Riggs, William (University of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Urban planning has developed a rich computational ecosystem for acquiring spatial data, representing street networks, analyzing movement, modeling travel demand, measuring accessibility, and simulating transportation systems. Yet these tools generally terminate at description, diagnosis, or simulation. The final movement from observed urban operations to physical, regulatory, and programmatic design remains largely ad hoc, difficult to reproduce, and dependent on expert interpretation that is rarely encoded or reported. This article proposes StreetOps, an open computational framework for translating urban operations into design. StreetOps is conceived as a compositional layer built on existing open-source geospatial tools and standards rather than as a replacement for them. Its central technical abstraction, the OpsGraph, represents infrastructure, activities, temporal conditions, operating rules, public priorities, conflicts, and candidate interventions within a common time-aware and rule-aware model. The framework organizes analysis into six stages: acquire, integrate, diagnose, translate, generate scenarios, and evaluate. A proof-of-concept application to autonomous-vehicle pick-up and drop-off activity in Hayes Valley, San Francisco, illustrates how spatial and temporal sorting can be converted into targeted, adaptive curb-design responses while protecting transit, accessibility, pedestrian safety, and other public functions. The article defines the research problem, data model, translation logic, software architecture, governance principles, and development roadmap for StreetOps. Its intended contribution is to make the evidence-to-intervention step of urban planning more explicit, auditable, reusable, and reproducible. |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g3z7j_v1 |
| By: | California State Transportation Agency; California Energy Commission; UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt97g6n2rj |
| By: | Kenney, Martin |
| Abstract: | Abstract The global transition toward electric vehicles and renewable energy represents a fundamental shift in the world’s techno-economic paradigm. Drawing on discussions during my June 2026 visit to ETLA in Helsinki, this brief argues that the true engine of this transformation is the battery, the foundational technology uniting production and consumption in the emerging electric age. This memorandum is published alongside a companion brief by Petri Rouvinen (2026) examining the EU’s response to this shift, the proposed Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA). Through decades of deliberate industrial policy, China has secured command over the entire clean technology triad of solar power, batteries, and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, Western automakers, particularly in the United States, risk being stranded on a shrinking island of internal combustion engine technology amid political whiplash. In this brief, I synthesize the mechanisms driving China’s rise, examine the strategic implications of the electric technology stack, and offer insights for decision-makers seeking to build a competitive and resilient industrial future. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, Battery supply chain, Geopolitics, Industrial policy, Energy transition |
| JEL: | F13 L52 L62 O38 Q42 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:188 |
| By: | Kyung-In Hwang (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Talk of a crisis in Korea’s battery industry has not subsided. Slowing demand for electric vehicles, China’s expanding market share, and mounting policy uncertainty in major economies have arrived together, and the earnings of Korean firms have suffered as a result. What deserves attention, however, is that this recent weakness does not stem from any stagnation in the global battery industry. World battery demand continues to rise in existing markets, on the intensive margin, and demand in new applications, on the extensive margin, has lately been expanding quickly.<p> This paper shows that the root cause of the crisis in Korea’s battery industry lies not in the electric vehicle chasm itself but in an erosion of competitiveness in the country’s core market and core product. It further argues that the industry’s center of growth is shifting structurally from electric vehicles to energy storage systems (ESS), and it focuses on the US ESS market, which is growing on the strength of expanding renewable generation and the spread of AI data centers. The United States is combining tariff policy with the supply chain restrictions attached to the advanced manufacturing production credit (AMPC) to reduce its reliance on Chinese ESS and build a supply chain centered on itself. These policy changes are expected to open new growth opportunities for Korean battery firms that have established production bases on US soil.<p> ESS is critical infrastructure underpinning the global energy transition and the spread of the AI industry. Building ESS into a new engine of growth for Korea’s battery industry will require using US supply chain policy strategically, and it will also require expanded policy support to strengthen the domestic battery materials industry, to upgrade the systems through which Korea responds to industrial and trade policy in major economies, and to build capability in next-generation ESS technology and system integration (SI). |
| Keywords: | ESS; AI data centers; AIDC; secondary batteries; power grids; tariffs; domestic production tax credit |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023647 |
| By: | Haoran Zhao; Andres Fielbaum |
| Abstract: | In global metropolitan areas, public transport benefits from bus systems. Bus design widely applies theoretical models, which typically assume static ridership. However, ridership randomness exists, and lack of attention to it might lead to wrong design decisions. Moving beyond static ridership, we extend the traditional single-line model with stochastic ridership. Further, to optimize the bus system under various ridership randomness, we introduce a hybrid model that combines conventional buses (CBs) and flexible buses (FBs). In both models, we apply a continuous approximation approach and find that: 1) Bus capacity increases with ridership randomness in the extended single-line model; 2) The hybrid model exhibits a binary state: either CBs serve the ridership with rejections under low ridership randomness, or CBs serve the majority while FBs serve the minority with rejections under high ridership randomness. Our findings establish a link between bus system design and ridership randomness, contributing to a more adaptive and efficient public transport framework. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.01264 |
| By: | Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Kshitiz Dahal (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment) |
| Abstract: | The deadly floods of 26 August 2026 obliterated the most important route connecting landlocked Nepal with its northern neighbour. This has raised questions over the future of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Nepal, where no project has gotten off the ground since a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in 2017. From the perspective of Nepal's interests, the appropriate yardstick for measuring BRI's relevance and success is not seamless Sino-Indian trade through Nepal but Sino-Nepali connectivity. In the wake of the Himalayan disaster, a situation where significant bilateral initiatives are seen neither for the reconstruction of the corridor to the Rasuwa port nor the building of viable all-season alternative routes will diminish the relevance of BRI to Nepal. The Cooperation Framework, signed in 2024 to operationalize the MoU, has enough space and flexibility for China's flagship international initiative to rise to the occasion. The immediate onus is on the Government of Nepal to assess the physical devastation and determine the way forward to reestablish all-season overland connectivity with China—the Rasuwa route or an alternative or both—and the support it would need from the world's second largest economy to make the restoration quick and durable. This could feed into the " step-by-step implementation plan ", as stipulated in the Cooperation Framework, for the development and execution of the (re)construction project. The new government in Nepal has an opportunity to make (re)building a resilient road link with China its signature project, signaling a decisive shift away from the time and cost overruns that plague infrastructure projects, while also mitigating geological risks and climate-proofing the infrastructure to the extent possible. The BRI rubber is yet to hit the road in Nepal. To the question what has BRI delivered in the Himalayan nation, a well-built, resilient road capped by well-equipped customs facilities could be a simple yet powerful answer. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Nepal floods, Nepal-China trade, geopolitics, India; transit, infrastructure |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F21 F22 F24 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:rpaper:rp/26/01 |
| By: | Jayun Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China’s low-altitude economy is an emerging composite industry centered on the low-altitude flight of manned and unmanned aircraft, including drones (unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs) and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and combined with applied services in logistics, tourism, and urban management.<p> Since its elevation to a national strategic industry in 2024, policy, markets, and technology have advanced together at an accelerating pace, and being written into the 15th Five-Year Plan as a strategic emerging industry in 2025 has established it as a medium- to long-term national strategy. The market is expanding quickly, from CNY 670 billion in 2024 to roughly CNY 1.5 trillion, or about KRW 280 trillion, in 2025, and routine operations are spreading through logistics, tourism, and urban management.<p> The industry’s development rests above all on a three-tier division of labor that binds three things into a single working structure: institutional and standards design by the central government, pilot zones operated by local governments, and technology and service delivery by private fi rms. Korea has strong technological capabilities in drones and urban air mobility (UAM), but gaps remain in institutions, infrastructure, and supply chains.<p> Drawing on China’s experience, Korea needs to consider, step by step, building institutional foundations ahead of deployment, establishing city-scale demonstration systems, and pursuing cooperation on international certification. |
| Keywords: | low-altitude economy; drones; eVTOL; China; industrial policy; K-UAM |
| JEL: | L93 L52 O25 O33 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023645 |
| By: | John C. Whitehead; Paul Hindsley; O. Ashton Morgan |
| Abstract: | This paper tests convergent validity between the travel cost method and contingent valuation method using opt-in panel data on recreation trips to South Florida. Data come from four survey waves administered through the Dynata panel between April 2024 and March 2025, yielding a final sample of 2103 Florida residents who took a recent recreation trip and plan another. Respondents are split into day trippers and overnight trippers. Travel cost models estimate recreation demand with a truncated negative binomial specification, using both average and minimum travel cost to 11 South Florida sites as the price measure. Contingent valuation models use a panel logit specification with two dependent variables, an initial yes/no response to a hypothetical trip cost increase and a version adjusted for respondent certainty. Consumer surplus and willingness to pay estimates, along with Krinsky-Robb confidence intervals, are computed for all eight models. Willingness to pay exceeds consumer surplus in six of eight comparisons, but only one difference is statistically significant. The results suggest that Travel Cost Method and Contingent Valuation Method welfare estimates from opt-in panel data are largely convergent valid. The findings support continued, cautious use of opt-in panel data for recreation valuation. Key Words: travel cost method, contingent valuation method, convergent validity, opt-in panel data. |
| JEL: | Q51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:26-10 |
| By: | Nadia Hassan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | With 20% of global trade under consistent risk through Hormuz, Pakistan is already receiving diverted cargo but lacks policy readiness to retain it. Turning geography into destiny needs timely alignment of reforms to make the ports competitive. Pakistan is strategically located at the intersection of Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia. Recent disruption in supply chains following regional conflict has created a strategic window for Pakistan to realign its ports located outside but in closest proximity of the conflict zone as alternate to major transshipment hubs of Gulf. This is a rare opportunity for transforming the short-term gains into long-term revenue generation and sustained growth of the economy. Pakistan has a favorable strategic position and cost-effective port labor. It has great potential to transform its ports into transcontinental trade hubs. In this context, a critical evaluation of Jebel Ali port, Dubai and Salalah port, Oman is performed to identify key gaps in policy structure for ports. This brief highlight that despite of strategic position and cost effectiveness Pakistan lacks a broad policy approach that must focus cost rationalization, infrastructure development, automation, integration of free zones, skill development, connectivity and security enhancement. Ultimately, it is identified that Pakistan can convert the temporary, conflict-driven shift into durable gains only by means of coherent policy measures aligned with global best practices. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan ports strategy, Strait of Hormuz trade risk, Karachi Port transshipment, Port Qasim cargo growth, Gwadar port potential, CPEC maritime logistics, Jebel Ali comparison, Salalah port benchmark, global supply chain disruption, port policy reforms Pakistan |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:58 |
| By: | Santi Furnari (University of London (United Kingdom, London)); Christof Brandtner (EM - EMLyon Business School); Khodr Badih (University of London (United Kingdom, London)) |
| Abstract: | Research on urban inequality and mobility has focused on individual-level activity spaces (i.e., the set of places where a person carries out her routine activities), showing that such spaces can alleviate neighborhood-level segregation. We know less about why specific places in an activity space become travel destinations across distant neighborhoods, thus mixing different people and counteracting neighborhood-level segregation. In this article, we address this gap by developing the concept of activity place—a bounded location in an activity space—and by investigating the factors influencing a place's ability to become a travel destination across distances, thus bridging neighborhoods. We conceive activity places as constructed by organizations and focus on a hitherto under-studied factor—that is, the governance of the organizations managing an activity place. Findings from the analysis of smartphone visitor data on a sample of 3080 parks in the largest 120 USA cities suggest that organizational governance does influence a place's attractiveness across distances, over and above the place's physical characteristics. Notably, public-private gov-ernance positively affects a place's attractiveness to distant visitors, and such effect is amplified by the diversity of programmed events. We discuss the implications and limitations of our findings for the organization of bridging activity places and urban parks. |
| Keywords: | Place, Urban mobility, Urban parks, Urban inequality, Mobile mobile phone data, Activity spaces, Organizations, Segregation |
| Date: | 2026–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05756278 |
| By: | Mohammad Shaaf Najib (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Usman Qadir (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Government focus and persistent incentives through ADP 2016-21 and AIDEP 2021-2026 have broken the Big-3 nexus and increased total number of automobile manufacturing and assembling firms to over 15 in Pakistan. Additionally, while production capacity has more than doubled in the last one decade, but automobile sales remain stagnant. Despite half a century of localization efforts, local parts and vendor industry is unable to produce high tech, high value parts and the industry remains highly dependent on CKD kits import. The local parts and vendor industry is largely disintegrated from GVC while exports of automobiles and auto parts remain negligible. The upcoming policy for the years 2026-2031 -in line with the goals of NTP 2025-2030- is expected to outline a tariff rationalization plan for the automobile industry. While reducing tariff cascading is a necessary step, it is essential that tariff decisions are backed by research and evidence rather than being decided arbitrarily. Furthermore, the focus must shift from industry protection to a more consumer centric approach. Tariff rationalization and commercial import both are essential for increasing competition to the local industry, enhance automobile market size, and improve consumer vehicle affordability. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:68 |
| By: | Mujtaba Arshad (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 briefly redirected regional cargo flows toward Pakistan's ports, with Karachi recording an unprecedented surge in transhipment activity and Gwadar receiving its first dedicated transhipment vessel call. While these developments highlighted Pakistan's strategic location outside the Gulf risk zone, they also demonstrated that temporary geopolitical disruptions alone cannot sustain long-term transhipment growth. Once regional stability returns, cargo will flow back to established hubs unless Pakistan strengthens its commercial competitiveness. This Policy View argues that Gwadar can become a preferred regional transhipment hub only if shipping lines choose it on commercial merit rather than crisis-driven necessity. It proposes five mutually reinforcing reforms; improving commercial competitiveness through competitive pricing, digital customs, dredging, and security; securing long-term commitments from major liner operators; systematically diverting bulk cargo to build throughput; developing an inclusive blue economy around Gwadar's fishing sector; and establishing Gwadar as Balochistan's principal mineral export gateway. Together, these reforms provide a commercially grounded roadmap for transforming Gwadar into a preferred regional transhipment hub under CPEC 2.0. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:72 |