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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Gabriel Monteiro; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions worldwide, with most automobile pollution coming from vehicles older than 10 years. Yet, many policies discourage the removal of older vehicles from the fleet, with potential consequences for pollution and public health. This paper examines an equity-motivated anti-scrappage policy in Brazil using a border-pair design that exploits state variation in the age thresholds for vehicle ownership tax exemptions. Using municipality-level vehicle registration data from 2013-2020, we find that lower exemption age thresholds increase the average fleet age by up to one year, as they encourage owners to retain vehicles until they qualify for tax exemptions. Using fleet- and satellite-based estimates of pollution and administrative health data, we show that these policies increase on-road CO2 emissions per capita by up to 23% and PM2.5 concentrations by 4%, while deteriorating infant health outcomes. Leveraging state reforms that raised exemption ages, we find evidence that incumbents face greater electoral penalties wherever a greater share of the vehicle fleet re-enters the tax base, consistent with a “political environmental trap.” Within an MVPF framework, we find that lowering the exemption age by five years generates a net welfare loss of $0.78 for every $1 of forgone government revenue. |
| Keywords: | vehicle ownership tax, transportation-related local air pollution, infant health, electoral and fiscal outcomes, border-pair approach |
| JEL: | Q53 Q56 Q58 H23 I18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12959 |
| By: | Timmons, Shane; Shier, Adam Joachim; Lunn, Pete |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp827 |
| By: | Usman Ahmed; Jason Hawkins |
| Abstract: | Land use and transportation infrastructure are tightly linked systems, and residential property prices play a central role in transportation planning. Transportation investments also influence property values, making accurate forecasting of both systems an interconnected research challenge. This study examines these interactions and evaluates machine learning methods for modeling residential real estate prices across contrasting urban contexts. We use XGBoost and Random Forest models to assess how land use and transportation infrastructure shape dwelling prices, comparing results between the Rawalpindi and Islamabad Metropolitan Area in Pakistan and the City of Toronto in Canada. We also examine the performance of machine learning models on spatial data by comparing nonspatial and spatial cross validation, and use SHAP values to interpret feature impacts. Despite differences in demographics and economic development, both cities show similar effects of transportation infrastructure and local amenities on prices. Proximity to major urban cores increases sale price, while high quality transit such as subway and bus rapid transit raises prices and conventional bus stop proximity lowers them. Nonspatial cross validation overestimates predictive accuracy for spatial datasets. XGBoost performs slightly better than Random Forest. We recommend careful application of machine learning methods when modeling spatially dependent land price data. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.00375 |
| By: | Shawn Berry |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the spatial relationships among housing-market appreciation, housing affordability, and automobile commuting to Toronto across 23 census metropolitan areas and municipalities in southern Ontario from 2016 to 2021. Utilizing Statistics Canada Census data, the analysis employed linear and quadratic ordinary least-squares regression, Global and Local Moran's I, and residual spatial diagnostics to assess geographic patterns in average dwelling values, owner shelter-cost burden, and lone-driver commuting. The study found that average dwelling values increased significantly throughout the region, maintaining a strong nonlinear relationship with distance from Toronto, which indicates a persistent metropolitan accessibility gradient. Commuter volumes also demonstrated pronounced nonlinear distance gradients; however, housing appreciation was not significantly correlated with percentage changes in commuting ($R^2$ = .045, p = .331), suggesting that the expansion of the housing market did not result in proportional growth in Toronto-bound automobile travel. The shelter-cost burden exhibited weaker distance relationships and greater residual spatial dependence, indicating localized affordability influences not fully explained by distance or dwelling values. Overall, the findings suggest an increasingly extensive regional housing market with spatially heterogeneous affordability and commuting outcomes, highlighting the importance of integrating housing, transportation, and regional planning. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.06308 |
| By: | Barros, Joana; de Araujo, Agnes Silva |
| Abstract: | Quantitative evidence on mobility of care remains scarce and geographically uneven because conventional surveys classify trips by destination and purpose, obscuring caring responsibilities within the evidence used for transport planning. This study expands evidence from the Global South by examining the prevalence, characteristics and gendered distribution of mobility of care in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region. Carrying-passenger trips from the 2023 Origin–Destination Survey are used as a partial proxy for mobility of care and combined with trip-purpose information to distinguish caring activities. Descriptive and negative binomial analyses examine differences by gender, age, race and socioeconomic stratum and interactions between gender and these characteristics, including household car ownership. Carrying passengers accounted for 15.6% of adult trips and displayed distinctive patterns of purpose, mode and trip frequency. Women recorded higher rates than men, particularly for school- and home-related trips, whereas men’s carrying was relatively more work-related. Gender gaps differed in magnitude by race and in both magnitude and direction across the life course. Rather than following a progressive socioeconomic gradient, gender disparities formed a nonlinear U-shape, narrowing to apparent parity in the middle strata but widening asymmetrically at both ends. Car ownership further differentiated gender gaps by socioeconomic stratum and trip purpose. Methodologically, the findings support carrying-passenger data as a useful, although incomplete, means of making care visible in conventional travel surveys. Conceptually, they challenge uniform and gender-neutral accounts of everyday mobility, demonstrating that inequalities in mobility of care emerge through intersections between social positions, caring purposes and household transport resources. |
| Date: | 2026–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:u3ryf_v1 |
| By: | Jackson, James; Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | There is an ongoing debate amongst scholars as to whether democratic or authoritarian political systems are more effective in achieving climate policy outcomes. In this article, we follow the latter trend through the concept of eco-authoritarianism, proposing that it is the appropriate way to understand China’s approach to the green transition. Drawing on primary and secondary data on China’s electric vehicle (EV) transition, we make two contributions to the environmental politics literature. First, we go beyond the current high-level theorising of eco-authoritarianism by identifying political architecture, ambitions & priorities, and state capacity as key to applying the concept. Second, we provide an empirical account of China’s EV transition through these dimensions as core features of eco-authoritarianism, finding that they create policy durability – effective coordination of policies across the state apparatus, policy consistency over time, and market-shaping levels of policy support. |
| Keywords: | China;climate policy;eco-authoritarianism;eElectric vehicles;green transition;industrial policy |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140991 |
| By: | Ying Bai; Xiaoyu Bian; Ruixue Jia |
| Abstract: | Transportation networks often radiate from national capitals, reflecting political priorities as much as economic logic. How costly is infrastructure built for politics rather than markets? We study China’s Grand Canal: when the Mongols moved the capital from the central plain to Beijing, the canal followed, bypassing the economic core it once served. Using a grid-year panel spanning five dynasties (8th–19th centuries), we show the route best suited to reach the capital predicts the canal’s actual path. This redesign reshaped market access and, through it, population. Counterfactual analysis shows the canal raised population by 2.5–6.1%, but its politically motivated redesign cost 1.1–2.2%. |
| JEL: | N45 N75 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35721 |
| By: | Xulia González; María J. Moral |
| Abstract: | In response to the sharp rise in fuel prices following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, many governments introduced temporary fuel subsidies to shield households from higher energy costs. This paper evaluates the distributional and environmental effects of Spain’s fuel subsidy policy. We combine household-level estimates of gasoline price elasticities from the Household Budget Survey with weekly retail fuel price data to estimate the pass-through of the subsidy to consumers. We find an average short-run gasoline price elasticity of 0.55 and incomplete pass-through, with only 89% of the subsidy reflected in retail prices. As a result, part of the fiscal transfer was captured by fuel retailers, while the benefits accrued disproportionately to higher-income households: the lowest income quartile received 12.4% of total benefits compared with 28.4% for the highest quartile. We also identify substantial regional heterogeneity in this distribution. The subsidy also increased fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Overall, the findings suggest that uniform fuel subsidies are poorly targeted and can conflict with both equity and environmental policy objectives. |
| Keywords: | Fuel subsidy, price elasticity, gasoline prices, distributional equity, emissions |
| JEL: | H22 H23 L11 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vig:wpaper:2603 |
| By: | Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet |
| Abstract: | Container shipping has become a cornerstone of global supply chains, regional integration, and port-city development. The globalization of trade and, at the same time, the increased vulnerability of supply chains have created a more efficient yet fragile system. In this chapter, using a unique dataset of more than four million ship movements, we uncover the local and global dynamics of container flows. Starting in the 1970s, with the diffusion of container technology in international trade, we analyse fifty years of global trade through the lens of network structures and community detection. We document (i) an almost continuous expansion in nodes and links with improving topological efficiency up to the mid-2010s, followed by (ii) the consequences of recent shocks, such as COVID-19, Red Sea disruptions, and the Panama Canal drought, which highlights the vulnerability of the container shipping network. Using single linkage analysis, we also show the evolution of trade dependencies, the emergence of China particularly towards Africa over the last decade, and the persistence of certain port systems such as the European system around Rotterdam. We open a new avenue of research by combining global and local, systemic and long-term quantitative analyses to understand the dynamics of international trade. |
| Keywords: | complex networks; international trade; container shipping |
| JEL: | F14 R40 L91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-19 |
| By: | Hall, David; Weghmann, Vera; Adam, Al-Hassan |
| Abstract: | Private Equity is not the only problem. Privatisation creates downward pressure on jobs and pay and standards of service, upward pressure on fares and prices, and undermines democratic accountability and planning, whether the private companies are owned by multinationals, or local firms, - or private equity (PE) groups. PE’s distinct features - debt-financed acquisitions, rapid profit extraction and exits - do encourage more aggressive reduction of costs, cutting employment by 4% compared with other forms of ownership, and undermining services. PE’s separation of investors from companies obscures ownership and responsibility. Its global growth has levelled off, and it is finding exits more difficult, which may increase pressure for higher returns. Direct provision of public transport services by public sector remains the dominant form of ownership globally, but privatisations of are growing, with the usual damaging consequences, led by groups based in France and the UK, including some owned by PE. Projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are often similar to PPPs, dominated by Chinese state-owned construction firms, but there is no PE presence. PE is now entering public transport not only through privatisation of operations but also through other parts of the supply chain. This involves some of the biggest PE groups in the world, but also smaller national-based PE firms. The biggest area is leasing of electric trains and buses, where there is a big growth in demand due to climate change policies. Leasing can be used to extract continuing high profits, which puts pressure on labour costs and fares of actual operations, as well as destroying crucial public sector capacity and skills in maintaining and designing e-buses and trains. International financial institutions (IFIs) such as the World Bank Group, and national development financial institutions (DFIs), play a key role in promoting and participating in PE investment in e-bus programmes, and railways, port and airports construction. They also channel development and climate funds through PPPs to ensure that they support private companies, including PE firms, using public and development finance to guarantee investor returns. Public ownership remains a better and more cost-effective option, not only for operation but also investment in new systems, e-buses etc. Successful public-led cases, such as Madrid’s metro system, achieve world-class outcomes through in-house expertise, public ownership, and finance, demonstrating the power of public economics which outperforms privatised approaches. Unions, social movements and progressive political parties should continue to prioritise resistance to privatisation of transport services at local, national and international level, and resistance to all forms of PPPs and blended finance. This should include pressure on IFIs and DFIs to channel financial support to public sector, and also targeting PE as a particularly damaging and anti-democratic form of privatisation, but not as the main issue. Campaigns should also address the problem of leasing, calling for governments to support e-bus and e-locomotive purchases through cost-effective and accountable public finance mechanisms, combined with local manufacturing of these vehicles. The whole sector and supply chain should become a focus for national economic policy to develop sustainable skilled employment in socially useful production. In addition, wherever privatisation exists, there should be demands to eliminate public subsidies or guarantees to private operators or leasers, and to limit the extraction of dividends and interest payments. |
| Keywords: | private equity; public transport; China; electric buses; electric trains |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:54314 |