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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Li, Yanning PhD; Jenn, Alan PhD |
| Abstract: | The transition to a decarbonized energy system is creating significant changes in the electricity distribution grid, particularly with the rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). This study explores the equity implications of these changes by analyzing needed distribution grid upgrades across various communities in California. Utilizing real-world distribution grid data and detailed simulations of light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty EV charging behavior, we assess the spatial disparities in grid resource upgrade needs and utilization. Our findings show that by 2035, with the growth in EV charging demand, high-density residential areas are expected to have a higher fraction of feeders (neighborhood electric lines and transformers) that will need an upgrade. Additionally, communities with higher CalEnviroScreen scores (indicating greater pollution and socioeconomic burdens) generally exhibit lower EV adoption rates and are expected to have a higher share of feeders that will need to be upgraded, though with less extensive upgrades on average. Despite differences in capacity upgrade needs among different communities, the costs versus benefits from the upgraded distribution grid resources is expected to be quite proportional among different communities. While the top 20% disadvantaged communities utilize grid resources less than other communities due to their lower charging demand, the infrastructure upgrade costs in these communities are also lower. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric vehicles, Electric vehicle charging, Electrical grids, Electric power transmission, Underserved communities, Transportation equity |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0wc135vt |
| By: | Tiwari, Sapan; Jafari, Afshin; Pemberton, Steve; Both, Alan; Singh, Dhirendra; Turner, Ryan; De Gruyter, Chris |
| Abstract: | Riding a bicycle, particularly for transport purposes, offers substantial environmental and health benefits. Suitable bicycle infrastructure is crucial for promoting bicycle use, but remains scarce and fragmented in Australia, particularly in regional cities. In this context, understanding cyclists' route choices is a key input in informed infrastructure planning to increase cycling mode share. This study uses data from a map-based public participatory route survey to spatially capture bicycle route choice in the regional city of Greater Bendigo, Australia. The model incorporates attributes such as level of traffic stress (LTS), slope, tree canopy cover, intersection density, and route directness, along with an adjustment to account for overlap among alternative routes. The results show that cyclists strongly prefer routes with the lowest traffic stress, lower gradients, and greater network connectivity, while avoiding circuitous paths. Cyclists are also more likely to choose routes that are distinct and share fewer common segments with alternative routes. Segmentation by gender and age reveals notable behavioural differences: female cyclists are considerably more sensitive to traffic stress and slope, prioritising safety and comfort, whereas male cyclists exhibit greater tolerance to stress and prioritise route efficiency. Middle-aged cyclists (40-60 years) exhibit the strongest aversion to stressful routes, while younger cyclists (18-40 years) demonstrate greater flexibility in route choice. These findings highlight the importance of age and gender considerations in bicycle infrastructure planning as well as prioritising low-stress, well-connected, and direct cycling corridors. The findings also highlight the value of map-based public participatory surveys as a cost-effective means of collecting route data in regional settings with small populations. |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tdras_v1 |
| By: | Pike, Susie |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewed academic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt10m052z2 |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline PhD; Zhang, Yunwan PhD; Harold, Brian S.; Drake, Christina PhD |
| Abstract: | People living on low incomes often lack affordable and reliable transportation options. These barriers limit access to essential destinations such as medical appointments, school, and jobs. In response, several U.S. cities have tested universal basic mobility wallets that provide flexible transportation funds to low-income residents. In 2023, the Los Angeles Department of Transportation and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Transit Authority launched one of the largest mobility wallet pilot programs, offering $150 per month to 1, 000 participants over the course of a year on prepaid debit cards. Participants could use the monthly stipend to pay for transit, ridehailing, carsharing, car rentals, shared bicycles and scooters, and bicycle purchases. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9f45r24p |
| By: | Pike, Susie |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewed academic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0pm432rc |
| By: | David Rapson; Blake Shaffer |
| Abstract: | Electricity distribution network constraints may ultimately limit the pace of transportation electrification. This paper examines the underappreciated challenges that electric vehicle (EV) adoption poses for the distribution grid. While prior research has focused on bulk power and private service upgrades, we emphasize how local distribution capacity is strained by reduced load diversity at small aggregations. We highlight two alternatives to costly infrastructure expansion: (1) demand-based tariffs that allocate scarce distribution capacity more efficiently, and (2) managed charging programs that coordinate EV loads within local limits. While managed charging reduces transformer overloads and smooths load profiles, consumer participation remains a barrier. Economists can play a key role by designing rate structures that align user incentives with local network constraints and by evaluating consumer acceptance of these solutions as electrification advances. |
| Keywords: | energy transition; electrification; electricity distribution network |
| JEL: | L94 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:102283 |
| By: | Pike, Susie; Waechter, Maxwell |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewed academic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt303675p9 |
| By: | Baptiste Rigaux; Sam Hamels; Marten Ovaere (-) |
| Abstract: | We study household acceptance of flexibility contracts for electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps (HPs), two key technologies for the energy transition. Using a survey and choice experiment with around 3, 000 households, we analyze how contract design—particularly comfort limits such as indoor temperature or driving range— affects both the decision to participate and the flexibility households are willing to supply at different levels of remuneration. Around 70% of households in our sample are willing to participate. Discomfort affects utility nonlinearly for EVs: remaining range is valued at close to €0/km above 100 km but rises to €0.40/km below, while HP flexibility is valued at about €2 per degree of indoor temperature reduction. We derive conditions under which flexibility contracts can achieve cost-effectiveness while remaining acceptable to households. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest potential load reductions of up to 300 MW/event from HPs and 800 MW/event from EVs per million units. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Demand; Choice Experiment; Preferences; Thermal comfort; Range anxiety; Heat pump; Electric vehicle |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1130 |
| By: | Palak Suri; Maureen L. Cropper |
| Abstract: | We measure benefits to households from Mumbai’s new Metro rail system. We estimate a commute mode choice model to value commute time savings in the short run and a housing choice model to value the improved commuting utility that households experience due to spatial sorting. Aggregate benefits from Metro rail are over 10 times higher when spatial sorting occurs. In the short run women, college-educated workers, and workers with above median incomes experience higher benefits than their opposites. In the long run, households with lower incomes and assets and less than college education benefit more than their wealthier counterparts. |
| JEL: | O18 R1 R2 R4 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34613 |
| By: | Palia, Ridhi; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya; Khan, Sarah |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8x683995 |
| By: | Chen, Yu-Yang Ambotter S. |
| Abstract: | The transportation system is a necessary element in urban assembly, and the design of the transportation system has become the core elements of urban design. This research points out the transportation system as an expression of the conscious landscape through the combination of aesthetic gaze and urban design. Conscious landscape is an extensive concept of landscape. It is based on the existence of "landscape", but its existence mainly relies on “consciousness.” Based on the discussion of consciousness, the aesthetic gaze of the city starts from economic consciousness and takes the cultural capital system as the foundation of consciousness. This research discusses the transportation system around Taipei city, especially taking the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) as an example. It is like a blood vessel that runs through the city, and its penetrating characteristics divide Taipei city. From the perspective of sightseeing and economic awareness, the MRT is a landscape with special positioning currently. MRT combines the nature of transportation with strongly economic display. In addition to being a traffic landscape, it is also a type of conscious landscape. MRT is positioned as conscious landscape, which is a description that is very specific to the characteristics of strong economic map in human brain. This includes the impression of the economic field superimposed by the MRT network nodes, and the conscious landscape is instrumental but tends to be life-oriented. The aesthetic gaze of the city locates the transportation system as a conscious landscape, and the design is the aesthetic practice of capital. |
| Date: | 2025–12–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5zryg_v1 |
| By: | Evangelos Rasvanis, Andreas Psarras and Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of regional disparities in road traffic accident (RTA) outcomes across European regions. Using panel data and negative binomial models, it examines socioeconomic, institutional, cultural and behavioural drivers on fatalities and injuries. The results reveal marked regional variation, with Southern Europe exhibiting higher casualty rates. Education, perceptions of road safety, rule of law, informal economy and GDP per capita significantly affect RTA outcomes. Marginal effects confirm that tertiary education substantially reduces both fatalities and injuries. The empirical evidence highlights the importance of locational and institutional factors for designing targeted, region-specific road safety policies. |
| Keywords: | Road traffic accidents; European regions; Cultural factors; Behavioural patterns. |
| JEL: | I19 R10 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2025_03 |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan; Wolfe, Brooke; Cohen, Adam |
| Abstract: | Bike lending offers a service that enables individuals to borrow bicycles for short-term use (i.e., ranging from 2 hours to 36 months), typically from designated locations within cities, campuses, or communities. Unlike bikesharing systems that typically rely on automated kiosks and/or undocked and free-floating devices for public access, bike lending involves a managed program with staff, similar to a library model. These programs can be administered by community organizations, bike shops, public libraries, and other local entities. They are typically community- or membership-based, with many programs associated with non-profit organizations or publicly owned and operated. In this paper, we investigate bike lending in the United States and Canada as of Spring 2024, including a literature review, the identification and characterization of bike lending programs (n = 55), expert interviews (n = 24), a survey of bike lending operators (n = 31), and 2 focus groups with a total of 12 participants. Insights from expert interviews and operator surveys highlight the experiences of professionals involved in bike lending. The focus groups capture the experiences of bike lending users. This paper finds that North American bike lending is often tailored to the specific needs of communities, such as youth, low-income individuals, and the general population. More sustained funding could support program expansion and diversify bike offerings. Enhancing cycling infrastructure, such as adding dedicated bike lanes and paths, could improve overall cycling safety and increase participation in bike lending programs. This study’s findings could help strengthen existing bike lending programs, guide the development of new initiatives and supportive policies, and enhance safe bicycle use for participants. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3vz0g3qh |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou |
| Abstract: | Landmines affect the lives of millions in many conflict-ridden communities long after the end of hostilities. However, there is little research on the role of demining. We examine the economic consequences of landmine removal in Mozambique, the only country to transition from heavily contaminated in 1992 to mine-free in 2015. First, we present the self-assembled georeferenced catalog of areas suspected of contamination, along with a detailed record of demining operations. Second, the event-study analysis reveals a robust association between demining activities and subsequent local economic performance, reflected in luminosity. Economic activity does not pick up in the years leading up to clearance, nor does it increase when operators investigate areas mistakenly marked as contaminated in prior surveys. Third, recognizing that landmine removal reshapes transportation access, we use a market-access approach to explore direct and indirect effects. To advance on identification, we isolate changes in market access caused by removing landmines in previously considered safe areas, far from earlier nationwide surveys. Fourth, policy simulations reveal the substantial economywide dividends of clearance, but only when factoring in market-access effects, which dwarf direct productivity links. Additionally, policy counterfactuals uncover significant aggregate costs when demining does not prioritize the unblocking of transportation routes. These results offer insights into the design of demining programs in Ukraine and elsewhere, highlighting the need for centralized coordination and prioritization of areas facilitating commerce. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Development, History, Conflict, Landmines, Market Access, Transportation Infrastructure. |
| JEL: | N47 N77 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Jan Baran (Narodowy Bank Polski; University of Warsaw); Patryk Czechowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Jakub Mućk (Narodowy Bank Polski; Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the role of the electromobility transformation for exports of the automotive sector. To do so, we propose a novel mapping of granular codes of automotive products into three categories: (i) combustion-specific, (ii) neutral, and (iii) electric-specific. We estimate a standard gravity model of the trade flows of automotive products, comparing the three categories with each other. We demonstrate that key drivers of export of the electric-specific products are similar to the combustion-specific ones. However, exports related to electric vehicles are more technologically intensive and supported by either a domestic R&D potential or international knowledge spillovers through FDI. In particular, export-oriented production of electric-specific intermediates proves to be to a large extent R&D intensive. Our results also suggest that the ongoing structural change in the automotive industry leads rather to intra-industry reorganization than to more fundamental restructuring of existing Global Value Chains. |
| Keywords: | automotive industry, international trade, gravity model of trade, structural change, electric vehicles, electromobility, Global Value Chains |
| JEL: | F14 L16 L62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:379 |
| By: | Mr. Simon Black; Weronika Celniak; Alberto Garcia Huitron; Ian W.H. Parry; Paulina Schulz Antipa; Nate Vernon-Lin |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a bi-annual assessment of efficient fossil fuel prices and subsidies for 170 countries, based on a comprehensive analysis of environmental and other externalities from fuel consumption. Globally, explicit (or fiscal) subsidies were $725 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) in 2024. Implicit subsidies, primarily underpricing of environmental costs, were $6.7 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), with three quarters from underpriced air pollution and climate change.* Relative to GDP, explicit subsidies have stablized at pre-COVID levels while implicit subidies have increased somewhat and are expected to rise gradually until 2035. Explicit subsidy removal would reduce CO2 emissions by six percent below baseline levels in 2035, avoid 70, 000 premature air pollution deaths annually, raise 0.6 percent of GDP in government revenue, and generate net economic benefits worth 0.5 percent of GDP. Removal of both explicit and implicit subsidies (through corrective taxes) generates substantially larger benefits, such as 1.1 million fewer premature air pollution deaths and a 46 percent reduction in CO2 emissions, but would be politically difficult. Subsidizing fuels is an inefficient way to support low-income households: for every dollar spent on explicit fuel subsidies, the poorest 20 percent of households receive just 8 cents. |
| Keywords: | Fossil fuel subsidies; efficient fuel prices; supply costs; climate change; local air polution mortality; traffic accidents; emissions reductions; revenue gains; welfare gains; distributional impacts |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/270 |
| By: | Bernardineli, Danilo Lessa; Marracini, Chiara; Mardegan, Gabriel Rodrigues; Pedrosa, Paula Machado; Cano, Ana Júlia; do Vale, Thiago Neves; Marmo, Adriana |
| Abstract: | This essay presents the Pedal Hidrográfico (PH), a regular cycling tour that takes place in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (RMSP) with the objective of feeling out urban landscapes through itineraries that unite neogeography, participatory mechanisms, and energy demand modeling. The PH rides occur weekly and bear titles such as "Central Contour of the 1929 Flood, " "Mouth of the Meninos to the Mouth of the Zavuvus, " "Dry Valleys of the Tietê from Remédios to Osasco, " and "Going Uberaba Upstream and Descending Cupecê with a Desmorrodouro in the Middle, " among others. Participants move in varied directions, contributing to the construction of a collective memory around the mosaics of landscapes, anomalies, and rivers in a city that many insist is shapeless, ugly, and dirty, but which reveals itself as a witness to a complex labyrinth where humanity and nature are indistinguishable. From its inception on September 9, 2024, to November 12, 2025, the PH led 237 people to traverse 71 distinct routes, delivering a total of 324, 186 kilojoules of movement energy to perceive the watercourses. This amount of energy is equivalent to 8 liters of gasoline, although covering the same distance with a motor vehicle would require 2, 290 liters of gasoline.It is empirically demonstrated that the bicycle uses 286 times less energy per kilometer than a car to move within the urban site of São Paulo when choosing to pedal along paths that were once obvious but have been buried, obstructed, or erased as possible ways. |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3sdcp_v1 |
| By: | Linovski, Orly |
| Abstract: | Despite calls for reform, many transit agencies rely heavily on enforcement to increase fare revenue and perceptions of safety. Both fare evasion and behaviour violations (like loitering and public intoxication) can carry heavy fines, and lead to debt collection and criminal justice system involvement. Yet, there has been limited examination of the financial and social costs of transit fines, and whether enforcement programs can achieve revenue goals. Using administrative data obtained through freedom of information requests, I document the nature and extent of transit enforcement and fines in sixteen Canadian cities. I find that transit fines are excessively punitive when compared with parking violations, with fines on average five times higher than similar parking infractions. While there may be deterrence value from enforcement, few transit fines are paid, and the costs of enforcing transit violations are likely significantly greater than revenue from payments. Given this, transit agencies should evaluate the goals, impacts, and outcomes of enforcement programs, with a full accounting of both the financial and social costs, and consideration of alternative programs. |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:stw6y_v1 |
| By: | Gondauri, Davit |
| Abstract: | Situated on the Eurasian transit axis, the Georgian railway corridor is a strategic artery for freight, capital, and innovation. This paper develops an integrated, model-driven assessment of its impact on economic development by combining: (1) Navier-Stokes equations adapted to economics to simulate operational flows and systemic risk; (2) a multidimensional Ricci Flow model to track inequality dynamics and structural transformation; and (3) an Economic Value Added (EVA) framework to evaluate long-term value creation and capital allocation. Using 2022-2024 data, we find that infrastructure modernization and efficiency gains increase liquidity velocity and lower systemic risk in the Navier-Stokes module. Stress tests reveal high sensitivity to external shocks, underscoring the need for dynamic operational and policy optimization. The Ricci Flow analysis maps how freight turnover, income growth, energy efficiency, and innovation shape inequality trajectories: parameters with positive curvature are associated with inclusive growth and sustainability, whereas negative curvature flags zones of persistent risk. EVA matrix modeling shows that higher growth and freight volumes lift GDP, added value, and competitiveness; importantly, a positive EVA margin emerges when annual growth reaches at least 3%. The study offers a transferable methodology for evaluating complex infrastructure under uncertainty and regional competition. Policy recommendations include institutionalizing real-time monitoring and stress testing, prioritizing inclusive-growth parameters, and aligning investment optimization with the integrated modeling stack to support sustainable, corridor-led development. |
| Keywords: | Georgian Railway Corridor, Navier-Stokes Equations, Ricci Flow, Economic Value Added (EVA), Multilayer Analysis, Curvature Analysis, Stress Testing, Mathematical Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333914 |
| By: | Lu, Yue; Ma, Minghui; Liu, Kehan; Tang, Yao |
| Abstract: | Using a two-country Melitz model, we analyze how China's massive railway expansion generates trade gains via vertical linkages. Domestic gains stem from both a composition effect in which improved domestic market access enabled by railway encourages downstream firms to source more inputs domestically and hence raise the domestic value added ratio (DVAR), and a scale effect in which better market access boosts the output level. Intermediate good producers in the foreign country also benefit despite the composition effect, as the scale effect associated with expanded demand from Chinese firms dominates. We test the theoretical predictions with panel data on Chinese manufacturing firms in 2000-2007, addressing endogeneity using a control function approach. Our main empirical findings confirm: (1) Improved upstream access increases exporters' DVAR (explaining 11.57% of its interquantile variation) along with higher value added and revenue; (2) Better access to downstream buyers boosts upstream intermediate producers' value added, profits, and revenue; (3) Foreign intermediate good producers benefit from increased import varieties and quantities of Chinese firms. |
| Keywords: | railway infrastructure, domestic value added ratio, intermediate inputs |
| JEL: | F1 R4 |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126901 |
| By: | Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | economics; finance; energy economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:60464201 |
| By: | Flintz, Joschka |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of away fan attendance in Germany's top three football divisions over six seasons and assesses its impact on match outcomes. The analysis reveals that, after conditioning on home and away teams, distance and kick-off time are the most important predictors of away fan turnout. Moreover, away support is found to have a statistically significant positive effect on team performance: an additional 1, 000 away fans is associated with a 4.6% to 7.5% increase in the probability of the away team winning or drawing the match. These findings suggest that league organizers should consider fan logistics and the potential influence of away fan presence when scheduling fixtures, in order to maintain sporting equity. At the club level, the results underscore the value of fostering fan engagement and indicate that strategies aimed at increasing away attendance may contribute to improved sporting outcomes. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht die Determinanten der Auswärtsfanbeteiligung in den drei höchsten deutschen Fußballligen über sechs Spielzeiten hinweg und bewertet deren Auswirkungen auf die Spielergebnisse. Die Analyse zeigt, dass nach Berücksichtigung der Heim- und Auswärtsmannschaften die Entfernung und die Anstoßzeit die wichtigsten Prädiktoren für die Auswärtsfanbeteiligung sind. Darüber hinaus hat die Unterstützung der Auswärtsfans einen statistisch signifikanten positiven Einfluss auf die Leistung der Mannschaft: 1.000 zusätzliche Auswärtsfans erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Auswärtsmannschaft das Spiel gewinnt oder unentschieden spielt, um 4, 6 % bis 7, 5 %. Diese Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Liga-Organisatoren bei der Spielplanerstellung die Logistik für die Fans und den potenziellen Einfluss der Anwesenheit von Auswärtsfans berücksichtigen sollten, um die sportliche Fairness zu wahren. Auf Vereinsebene unterstreichen die Ergebnisse den Wert der Förderung des Fanengagements und deuten darauf hin, dass Strategien zur Steigerung der Auswärtsbesucherzahlen zu besseren sportlichen Ergebnissen beitragen können. |
| Keywords: | Sport economics, Away fan attendance, Team performance, Spatio-temporal analysis |
| JEL: | C23 Z20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:333895 |