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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Shahriar, Muhammad Shajid; Luengjitvatana, Panapan; Baig, Mirza Samad Ali; Albreiki, Saeed; Luther, Aashish |
| Abstract: | In a world where people are increasingly shifting from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles, revenue from state fuel taxes has continued to decline. This has prompted policymakers to consider alternative mechanisms to fund transportation infrastructure, including the introduction of a Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) fee. However, these changes may have distributional consequences. This study examines the geographical equity impacts of a VMT fee on residents of five cities in the San Francisco Bay Area and compares the financial burdens of a VMT fee and the existing fuel tax for households living in urban and rural settings. Household-level travel, income, and residential location data were obtained from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. Four scenarios were evaluated: the current fuel tax, a static VMT fee, a dynamic VMT fee with modified elasticities, and a dynamic VMT fee using raw elasticities. Equity was assessed using the Gini Index. Results show that rural households face consistently higher burdens across all scenarios. The static VMT fee produces small changes relative to the fuel tax, while the dynamic scenarios increase financial burdens; especially for lower-income households due to behavioral adjustments. Overall, a VMT fee can serve as an alternative to the fuel tax, but behavioral responses and distributional differences remain important policy considerations. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, VMT Fee Impact, Transportation Equity, Tax Burden, Gini Index |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6j93d459 |
| By: | Lipman, Timothy |
| Abstract: | Heavy-duty transportation modes including trucks, buses, and seaport and airport equipment are relatively hard to decarbonize because of their demanding performance requirements and other factors. The California Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality calls for carbon-neutral transportation across all modes by 2045, with different sectors reaching 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by earlier dates, depending on the type of vehicle (see EO N-79-20). For public transit buses, the state’s Innovative Clean Transit rule requires both large and small transit agencies to cease purchasing combustion engine buses in 2029 in favor of zero-emission (ZE) technologies, with a phased approach that has already commenced. However, for trucks, achieving the transition to ZEVs is more problematic as the state’s Advanced Clean Fleets rule is only applicable to government fleets at present, and the Clean Truck Partnership memorandum of understanding with truck manufacturers is effectively on hold pending legal actions. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt20m3j8w1 |
| By: | Diaz Rincon Andrea (European Commission - JRC); Genty Aurelien (European Commission - JRC); Ruiz Garcia Juan (European Commission - JRC); Vergote Wouter (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) automotive industry is facing challenges as Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly gaining market share due to lower prices and perceived higher quality. In the last decade, the industry's reliance on foreign components has increased slightly (from 8% to 11%), but this modest increase masks the heterogeneity of EV and internal combustion engine (ICE) manufacturing. The distinction between EVs and ICEs is particularly important for inputs where the EU lacks a comparative advantage, such as batteries. Using a new methodology developed under the SMILE EU project, we disaggregate the automotive sector to separately assess technological differences and foreign dependencies for ICEs, EVs, and vehicle parts. Our analysis reveals that EVs have a significantly higher reliance on foreign components than ICEs (29% vs 13%, respectively). We find that this disparity is largely attributed to global value chain (GVC) strategies, rather than a domestic technological shortfall. These findings underscore the need for policy initiatives at an EU-wide level aimed at reducing outsourcing through GVCs and boosting European competitiveness in EV manufacturing. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145139 |
| By: | Gulhare, Siddhartha PhD; Circella, Giovanni PhD |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic greatly changed how people live, work, and travel. These changes influenced travel habits, public transit use, and transportation funding across regions. However, these effects were not the same everywhere; some areas faced major, lasting disruptions, while others experienced smaller impacts and recovered faster. Recognizing these differences is crucial for transportation agencies and policymakers as they prepare for future uncertainties and limited resources. In a large and diverse region like the Northern California Megaregion, with about 13 million people, understanding how and why travel patterns shifted among different communities can help improve long-term planning and system resilience. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2vd6x1tf |
| By: | Fiona Burlig; James B. Bushnell; David S. Rapson |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of program participation for policy, treatment effects are often measured on self-selected samples. We study electric vehicle (EV) managed charging, intended to reduce electric grid strain by optimally allocating charging across EVs. Prior work finds large impacts of managed charging among households who volunteer for an RCT. In contrast, we test managed charging with an experiment including all EVs within a California utility. Enrollment is low even with high incentives, and we can reject even modest intent-to-treat effects on electricity consumption. Managed charging is less effective than previously thought, underscoring the value of population-wide experiments. |
| JEL: | C90 Q40 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35086 |
| By: | Tareq Alsaleh; Bilal Farooq; Zachary Patterson |
| Abstract: | We examine these relationships using a panel dataset of more than 80, 000 trip observations from 100 participants through a custom-built mobile application. A joint revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) framework is used to estimate multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit (MXL) models. The level of integration is represented through a composite index capturing economic, social, civic, and health dimensions of integration. Results indicate two distinct patterns. First, the estimated models suggest that new immigrants in the sample exhibit lower sensitivity to in-vehicle travel time than Canadian-born respondents. The mixed logit specification suggests that the value of travel time for the sampled immigrants is approximately 66% lower than that of Canadian-born residents, with a immigrant-to-Canadian-born ratio of 0.34 that is consistent across both MXL specifications. Second, higher levels of integration are associated with reduced transit use and greater car reliance. A one standard deviation increase in the integration index decreases the probability of choosing public transit by approximately five percentage points. The joint RP-SP specification allows the inclusion of emerging e-mobility alternatives not yet observed in revealed behaviour; these face no inherent preference penalty, competing purely on their level-of-service attributes. Out-of-sample validation using five-fold cross-validation produces a mean prediction accuracy between 80% and 82% across model specifications. The findings suggest that transit policies in immigrant-receiving cities could prioritize service quality improvements, particularly reductions in access time, which are approximately three times more effective than fare reductions in shifting immigrants toward transit use. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.15564 |
| By: | Ahsan ul Haq (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Shahzada M. Naeem Nawaz (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how a disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz could impact Pakistan through fuel prices, inflation, and external-sector pressure. Using a nonlinear scenario framework, it models three cases (mild, stress, and severe) by including war-risk premium, exchange-rate effects, separate shocks to motor spirit (petrol) and high-speed diesel, threshold-based indirect CPI impacts, and staggered monthly pass-through. The results indicate that even a mild shock can disrupt Pakistan’s recent disinflation trend. The stress and severe scenarios lead to substantially higher inflation because diesel-driven transportation and food-distribution costs amplify second-round effects. The findings also show that the shock affects more than just pump prices; it raises the petroleum import bill, weakens the current account, and limits policy options. The paper concludes that an effective response involves a coordinated approach (based on transparent pass-through, targeted support for critical logistics, and active external-sector management) rather than broad price controls. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2026:2 |
| By: | Graham Pilgrim; Yann Dorville; Annabelle Mourougane |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel methodology to derive timely, experimental estimates of trade by commodity with global coverage using messages from the Automatic Identification System (AIS). By transforming high-frequency vessel movements into trade proxies, the approach makes it possible to monitor global cross-border flows in near real time for 23 commodity groups worldwide, covering 97.8% of existing berths across 3534 ports. The methodology improves upon Pilgrim et al. (2024) by exploiting information at the berth level, which increases the accuracy of port delineation and allows, with the use of satellite imagery and a rule-based approach, to get a mapping of commodities. While the resulting trade estimates are experimental and not designed to replace official trade statistics and are surrounded by uncertainties, especially regarding containerised trade, they provide valuable and complementary information on trade dynamics, particularly in periods of heightened uncertainty or rapid change. Their main strength lies in their ability to capture turning points, disruptions and emerging trends well ahead of traditional data releases. The methodology also allows to derive timely estimates of transit trade. |
| Keywords: | Big data, Maritime trade, Port activity, Port congestion |
| JEL: | C55 C81 F17 |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2026/02-en |
| By: | Ling Feng; Qiuyue Huang; Zhiyuan Li; Christopher M. Meissner |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong “peace dividend” of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict—a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward “decoupling”, “de-risking”, and greater trade protectionism. |
| JEL: | F14 F51 F69 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35078 |
| By: | Yonggeun Jung |
| Abstract: | Satellite data are increasingly used to measure economic activity, yet port-level trade remains largely unmeasured from space. This paper combines synthetic aperture radar imagery, nighttime lights, and port characteristics to measure monthly port-level maritime trade using only publicly available data. The model achieves strong out-of-sample accuracy for U.S. ports, with satellite signals and port attributes playing complementary roles. While absolute levels are difficult to extrapolate beyond the training domain, percentage changes are reliably recovered, as we confirm through a leave-one-region-out exercise and Monte Carlo simulation. Applying the framework to Russian ports after the 2022 sanctions, we detect shifts consistent with trade reorientation toward the Far East. The approach complements AIS-based methods by remaining robust to strategic signal manipulation. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.15444 |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau; Jesper R. -V. S{\o}rensen |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a highly general convex duality framework for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model. We show that the traveler's constrained, potentially non-smooth utility maximization problem admits a dual formulation: an unconstrained concave maximization problem with a differentiable objective. The unique optimal flow can be recovered link-by-link from any dual solution via the convex conjugates of link perturbation functions. These properties enable efficient gradient-based optimization for large-scale networks and fast computation for sensitivity analysis. Finally, the framework reveals a structural analogy between PURC and current flow in electrical circuits. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.20220 |
| By: | Schulz, Wolfgang H. |
| Abstract: | Dieses Arbeitspapier analysiert die mikroökonomischen Konsequenzen der Open-Source-Freigabe des autonomen Fahrstacks von NVIDIA (Drive AV, Halos, CUDA-X AV) für die deutsche Automobilindustrie. Die Freigabe wird in drei theoretische Schichten eingebettet: (i) eine Plattformstrategie, die indirekte Netzwerkeffekte und die Kippdynamik zweiseitiger Märkte nutzt, (ii) eine Anwendung von Spolskys „commoditize your complements"-Strategie, bei der NVIDIA die Softwareschicht verschenkt, um die Rente auf der komplementären Hardwareschicht (GPU, DRIVE SoC) zu maximieren, und (iii) ein ökonomisches Regime fallender Grenzkosten durch AI-Factory-Effekte. Auf Basis einer erweiterten Kostenfunktion wird gezeigt, dass das gewinnmaximierende Cournot-Ergebnis bei fallenden Grenzkosten durch höheren Output und niedrigere Preise gekennzeichnet ist als das klassische natürliche Monopol, bei zugleich stärkerer Marktkonzentration. Das Papier schlägt eine Gerschenkron-inspirierte Latecomer-Lösung vor: eine zeitlich begrenzte Adoptionsphase als „Rent-Seeking-Brücke zur Unabhängigkeit", flankiert von europäischen Dateninfrastrukturen (GAIA-X, moveID), regulatorischen Leitplanken gegen Plattform-Lock-in und einer Investitionsstrategie in Richtung souveräner KI-Mobilitätsinfrastruktur. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the microeconomic consequences of NVIDIA's open-source release of its autonomous driving stack (Drive AV, Halos, CUDA-X AV) for the German automotive industry. The release is embedded in three theoretical layers: (i) a platform strategy leveraging indirect network effects and the tipping dynamics of two-sided markets, (ii) a textbook application of Spolsky's "commoditize your complements" strategy, whereby NVIDIA gives away the software layer to maximise the rent extracted on the complementary hardware layer (GPU, DRIVE SoC), and (iii) an economic regime of falling marginal costs driven by AI-factory effects. Based on an extended cost function, the profit-maximising Cournot outcome under falling marginal costs is characterised by higher output and lower prices than the classical natural monopoly, while market concentration is even more pronounced. The paper proposes a Gerschenkron-style latecomer resolution of the dilemma: a time-limited adoption phase as a "rent-seeking bridge to independence", flanked by European data infrastructures (GAIA-X, moveID), regulatory guardrails against platform lock-in, and an investment strategy toward sovereign AI mobility infrastructure |
| Keywords: | Autonomes Fahren, Open Source, Plattformökonomie, AI-Factory, Deutsche Automobilindustrie, Gerschenkron, NVIDIA, Institutionelle Rollenmodelle |
| JEL: | L13 L62 L86 O33 O38 D42 F14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340040 |
| By: | Mohamed Bouka; Moulaye Abdel Kader Moulaye Ismail |
| Abstract: | Recent disruptions at major maritime chokepoints have exposed the structural fragility of liner shipping networks. Existing indicators measure connectivity, but none quantify its structural vulnerability from a supply-side perspective. We propose the Maritime Connectivity Vulnerability Index (MCVI), capturing three dimensions mapped to distinct UNCTAD sources: low overall connectivity (LSCI), weak bilateral integration (LSBCI), and port infrastructure concentration (PLSCI). The index covers 185 economies over 2006-2025 using pooled fractional rank normalization and equal-weight aggregation from publicly available data. SIDS exhibit a mean vulnerability 0.234 points above non-SIDS economies, with the gap widening from 0.232 to 0.249 over two decades. A modest global decline of 4.2% is observed. Port concentration dominates for nearly 40% of economies (72 of 185), establishing infrastructure diversification as a distinct policy priority. Rankings are highly stable across alternative weighting schemes, normalization methods (Spearman rho = 0.97-0.999), and PCA-derived weights; Monte Carlo simulation (1, 000 replications) confirms rho > 0.95 in every realization. External validation shows strong negative correlation with the World Bank Logistics Performance Index (rho = -0.61 across seven waves) and positive correlation with ad valorem maritime freight rates (rho = +0.32). Panel regressions reveal a vulnerability paradox whereby small trade-dependent economies are simultaneously the most trade-open and the most vulnerable. Pre-crisis MCVI predicts trade losses during the COVID-19 supply shock (rho = -0.25, p |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.18767 |