nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒11
eleven papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  1. Can Social Comparisons and Moral Appeals Induce a Modal Shift Towards Low-Emission Transport Modes? By Johannes Gessner; Wolfgang Habla; Ulrich J. Wagner
  2. Future Electric Vehicle Production in the United States and Europe – Will It Be Enough? By Yang, Hong; Fulton, Lewis
  3. Development of an approach to analyzing the impact of changes in the transport network on the interregional distribution of cargo flows in Russia By Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл); Ponomarev, Yury (Пономарев, Юрий)
  4. Dakar’s clandestine taxis are essential for daily travel - but they’re illegal By Pape Sakho; Gaele Lesteven; Momar Diongue; Pascal Pochet
  5. Port competition in contestable hinterlands: The case of preferential relationships and barrier effects in Central Europe By David Guerrero; Jean-Claude Thill
  6. Logistics and the globalization of the automotive supply chain: A case study on the Parts Consolidation Centres in the Seine Valley Corridor By David Guerrero; Adolf K Y Ng; Hidekazu Itoh
  7. Supplier networks at the integrated peripheries of the automobile industry: the case of keiretsu suppliers in Thailand By David Guerrero; Hidekazu Itoh; Guanie Lim; Petronille Harnay; Guillaume Corre
  8. Validating the Postulates of rational Choice in the Context of economical Fuel Consumption of Vehicles By Mullat, Joseph
  9. IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update By Mr. Simon Black; Antung A. Liu; Ian W.H. Parry; Nate Vernon
  10. Strategies to Preserve Transit-accessible Affordable Housing in Southern California By Parker, Madeleine E.G. MPA; Chapple, Karen PhD; Park, Yuju MCP
  11. Rural roads infrastructure and women empowerment in India By Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit

  1. By: Johannes Gessner; Wolfgang Habla; Ulrich J. Wagner
    Abstract: Under pressure to reduce CO2 emissions, companies are beginning to replace subsidized company car schemes with so-called mobility budgets that employees can spend on leisure and commuting trips, using a broad range of transport modes. Given their novelty, little is known about how mobility budgets should be designed to encourage sustainable choices. Since prices play a limited role in this subsidized setting, our study focuses on behavioral interventions. In a field experiment with 341 employees of a large German company, we test whether social comparisons, either in isolation or in combination with a climate-related moral appeal, can change the use of different means of transportation. We find strong evidence for a reduction in car-related mobility in response to the combined treatment, which is driven by changes in taxi and ride-sharing services. This is accompanied by substitution towards micromobility, i.e., transport modes such as shared e-scooters or bikes, but not towards public transport. We do not find any effects of the social comparison alone. Our results demonstrate that small, norm-based nudges can change transportation behavior, albeit for a limited time.
    Keywords: mobility behavior, randomized experiment, nudging, descriptive norm, injunc- tive norm, social norms, moral appeal, habit formation
    JEL: C93 D04 D91 L91
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Yang, Hong; Fulton, Lewis
    Abstract: The US and Europe have ambitious plans and targets for light-duty electric vehicle (EV) market growth. This study estimates planned EV production capacity in both regions and investigates whether coordinating their combined production capacity would help them meet targets. We find that, while each region is developing a strong EV production capacity domestically, either may fall short of their targets given investments in EV production announced to-date. Transatlantic trade can serve as a critical “spare capacity” to add assurance. Yet, in scenarios where both regions seek higher EV sales targets, a combined shortfall in annual EV production capacity could reach over 6 million EVs compared to the 20 million needed by 2030. An additional investment of about $42 billion across both regions could address this concern, however, time is getting short to build new plants and bring them online. The capacity shortfall may persist even with planned EV production capacity from other major manufacturing centers such as Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea. Additional policies and incentives will be needed to ensure planned capacities are developed in a timely manner. Some options include providing incentives to invest and reducing barriers to trade. Exploring the potential supply of vehicles from other major EV manufacturing countries, such as China and India, is recommended.
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric Vehicle, Production, Investment, Transatlantic, Trade, North America, Europe, European Union
    Date: 2023–08–23
  3. By: Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yury (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The transportation system is less variable than settlement patterns or the allocation of economic activity. This necessitates checking the optimality of spending on the development of transportation networks. Previous work in this area proposed criteria for the optimal development of transport networks for a single mode of transportation. The study demonstrates how, with the help of carrying capacity, a multilayer network can be “collapsed” to a representation convenient for working with the usual tools of spatial general equilibrium models. The possibilities of the new approach have been tested on the example of the Kaliningrad oblast. It was found that the distribution of the carrying capacity between the urban districts of the Kaliningrad region is not optimal: the carrying capacity of the roads in the latitudinal direction is insufficient. It follows from the model that new investments in road construction should bring the carrying capacity of roads between municipalities closer to such levels that the ratios of carrying capacity between pairs of adjacent territories correspond to those in the model with a zero lower limit of the optimal carrying capacity value.
    Date: 2021–11–12
  4. By: Pape Sakho (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Sénégal); Gaele Lesteven (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Momar Diongue (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Sénégal); Pascal Pochet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: [Short excerpt] Africa's major cities are growing at a rapid pace. In Dakar, Senegal's capital, for instance, the population has almost doubled in 20 years, reaching 4 million inhabitants today. But in most metropolises, like Dakar, planning isn't keeping up with the expansion. One example of this is the city's transport system. Public transport plays a fundamental role in providing access to any city. However, in many cities, it's lacking, particularly in areas of urban sprawl. This worsens the quality of life for people living in these areas, where there is a shortage of jobs and amenities.
    Keywords: Dakar -- Senegal, Daily urban mobility, Clandestine taxi, Informal transport, Transport system
    Date: 2023–02–13
  5. By: David Guerrero (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Jean-Claude Thill (UNC - University of North Carolina [Charlotte] - UNC - University of North Carolina System)
    Abstract: This chapter analyses port competition from a hinterland perspective. It focuses on a set of countries of Central Europe for which there is not a clear geographical advantage of one port over another. Such contestable hinterlands seem particularly relevant for an appreciation of factors that can tip the balance in favor of certain port alternatives, minimizing the statistical noise induced by distance effects. With the expansion of the European Union towards the East and the subsequent development of East-West transport links, such as the Rhein-Main-Danube canal, increased competition between ports can be expected. This paper tests this idea for different industries, by using a spatial interaction model on data on container shipments to the United States. Sailing frequency is used as a measure of port attractiveness and truck drive time as geographical separation. We also identify preferential ties between source countries and ports and barrier effects in the organization of hinterlands. Against expectations, the results highlight the path dependence in the North-South organization of hinterlands, with a persistent split between Switzerland, mostly oriented towards Rotterdam and Antwerp, and the other countries of Central Europe, historically tied to German ports, while Mediterranean ports are largely disregarded.
    Date: 2023
  6. By: David Guerrero (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Adolf K Y Ng (BNU - Beijing Normal University); Hidekazu Itoh (School of Business Administration [Kwansei Gakuin] - Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: During the past decades, the geography of the automotive industry has changed considerably. Today (2021) almost half of the production and sales take place in emerging economies compared to about 10% in 2000. Supply chains have been transformed to follow manufacturers towards the emerging economies. While most parts are sourced locally, non-negligible amounts are conveyed in containers from suppliers' plants in the advanced economies. To save transport costs and to ensure the reliability of these pipelines, car manufacturers rely on Parts Consolidation Centres (PCCs), i.e., cross-docking facilities where parts are sorted and packed in containers depending on their final destinations. Through an in-depth case study on the Seine Valley Corridor, this chapter unveils the logistics operations realized at PCCs, creating opportunities for upgrading through innovation and new technologies such as Hybrid and Electric vehicles, but simultaneously underlines the continued prevalence of low value-added logistics operations and the overall instability of demand.
    Keywords: port, globalization, automotive industry, Seine Valley Corridor, Parts Consolidation Centre
    Date: 2023
  7. By: David Guerrero (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Hidekazu Itoh (School of Business Administration [Kwansei Gakuin] - Kwansei Gakuin University); Guanie Lim (GRIPS - National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Petronille Harnay (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Guillaume Corre (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Abstract: The formation of supplier networks at the integrated peripheries is a complex process and results from variegated strategies adopted by firms seeking to adapt to the specificities of each host state. This study aims to provide a preliminary explanation of these patterns by focusing on the case of tier 1 suppliers serving Japanese car manufacturers in Thailand. The empirical data, which captures supply relationships for five different car parts and components, was analyzed using a network visualization method. Our initial findings provide insights into how the supply networks vary across car manufacturers and countries and suggest some of the conditions at the integrated peripheries which can enable suppliers to expand their client portfolio to gain scale. The paper also discusses how the integrated periphery framework intersects with the keiretsu networks of Japanese car manufacturers.
    Keywords: automobile industry, Thailand, integrated periphery, supply network, global production networks, spatial division of labor
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Mullat, Joseph
    Abstract: We have introduced an innovative procedure called "blind statistical scoring" that simplifies the analysis of statistical indicators. This procedure aligns with the principle of parsimony, also known as Ockham's razor. By applying this procedure, we confirm several postulates within the concept of bounded rationality of choice. To illustrate this phenomenon, we conducted an experiment with the data provided by website, which contains data, search results, texts, graphics, software and other information.
    Keywords: car market; fuel impulses; monotonic; Ockham's razor; kernel/closer
    JEL: C12 C15 G0 G02 R4 Y1 Y10
    Date: 2023–07–19
  9. By: Mr. Simon Black; Antung A. Liu; Ian W.H. Parry; Nate Vernon
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect supply and environmental costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by charging below efficient fuel prices. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022 or 7.1 percent of GDP. Explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs) have more than doubled since 2020 but are still only 18 percent of the total subsidy, while nearly 60 percent is due to undercharging for global warming and local air pollution. Differences between efficient prices and retail fuel prices are large and pervasive, for example, 80 percent of global coal consumption was priced at below half of its efficient level in 2022. Full fossil fuel price reform would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to an estimated 43 percent below baseline levels in 2030 (in line with keeping global warming to 1.5-2oC), while raising revenues worth 3.6 percent of global GDP and preventing 1.6 million local air pollution deaths per year. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 170 countries.
    Keywords: Fossil fuel subsidies; efficient fuel prices; supply costs; climate change; local air pollution mortality; revenue gains; energy price surge; non-pricing reform; spreadsheet tools
    Date: 2023–08–24
  10. By: Parker, Madeleine E.G. MPA; Chapple, Karen PhD; Park, Yuju MCP
    Abstract: This report highlights risk and prioritization factors for housing developments with expiring affordability protections, focused on preserving transit-accessible affordable housing. It presents a regional framework for identifying and preserving subsidized affordable housing in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region (Los Angeles, Imperial, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties). First, we analyze data from the California Housing Partnership (CHPC) and the National Housing Preservation Database (NHPD) to understand risk factors for expiring housing units, and design a prioritization tool for entities in the region to use when prioritizing developments to focus preservation and anti-displacement efforts. Second, we highlight affordable housing preservation policy solutions and characteristics unique to the Southern California context. Third, we draw on the strategies and experiences of other jurisdictions in the United States with experience strategizing around affordable housing preservation efforts to present key lessons and takeaways.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Housing, affordability, public transit, development, land use, regional planning, policy analysis, risk analysis, community land trusts
    Date: 2023–08–01
  11. By: Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit
    Abstract: The paper examines the impact of a rural roads construction program in India on women's outcomes. While spatial integration can provide women with increased education and employment opportunities, the extent of benefits might be limited by underlying gender norms. We identify the impact of the policy by exploiting the program rule that assigned roads based on the village population. Using a two-way fixed effect methodology, we find that increase in rural roads construction lowers mobility restrictions faced by women and improves norms around domestic violence. However, the result are mixed with respect to participation in other decision making and financial autonomy. Additionally, while we find positive impact on education, there is no impact on employment outcomes for females. We argue that a possible reason for a partial improvement in women outcomes could be gendered impact of the policy - men benefit more in terms of employment than women.
    Keywords: Gender Norms, India, Roads, Women Empowerment
    JEL: J16 O12
    Date: 2023

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