nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2026–02–02
twelve papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam


  1. Assessing the Market for Used Electric Vehicles in California By Tal, Gil PhD; Ramadoss, Trisha
  2. Evaluating Impacts of Traffic Regulations in Complex Mobility Systems Using Scenario-Based Simulations By Arianna Burzacchi; Marco Pistore
  3. Review of the Travel Demand Model Benchmarking Method Used to Estimate Induced VMT for the I-680 Express Lane Project By Volker, Jamey; Handy, Susan
  4. How California cities respond to state-level parking reform By Lee, Amy; Millard-Ball, Adam; Manville, Michael
  5. Mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) system as a multi-leader-multi-follower game: A single-level variational inequality (VI) formulation By Rui Yao; Xinyu Ma; Kenan Zhang
  6. Stakeholder perspectives on the transition to zero emission off-road equipment By Hardman, Scott PhD; Karanam, Vaishnavi PhD
  7. Digital control and market power in the automotive sector: OEMs, gatekeeping, and the future of aftermarket regulation By Hey, Florian; Zombek, Max
  8. Stockpiling or Recycling? Country-Specific Strategies for EV Battery Mineral Security By Wang, Yitian; Vespignani, Joaquin; Smyth, Russell
  9. Overcoming Demand Barriers to Hydrogen Use in Heavy-Duty Trucks and Ports By Bergman, Aaron; Krupnick, Alan; Nehrkorn, Katarina; Zhu, Yuqi
  10. Surveillance Inequality: Race, Poverty, and the Geography of Automated License Plate Reader Deployment By Keener, Steven; Finn, John; Baird, Andrew F.
  11. What is the Value of Attention? Supply and Demand Estimation of Attention in a Mobile App Setting By Orrenius, Johan
  12. Where Emissions Come From: Regional Sources of Household Carbon Footprints in Brazil By Thais Diniz Oliveira; Paula Pereda; Ademir Rocha; Samuel Bicego; Ana Clara Duran

  1. By: Tal, Gil PhD; Ramadoss, Trisha
    Abstract: The secondary market for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) will play a critical role in decarbonizing transportation and in bringing ZEVs to lower income populations. Yet research into this market remains limited. Thus, in this study, the characteristics of the used ZEV market, its buyers, and the sources and destinations of used ZEVs were explored. The flows of secondhand, pre-owned, or “used” ZEVs in California were quantified by analyzing vehicle registration and transfer information from the Department of Motor Vehicles from 2016 to 2020. Descriptive statistics were used to examine this market, and the sources and destinations of used ZEVs were modeled using linear regression. Several key trends became evident. First, plug-in hybrids appear to be entering the used market at higher rates than battery electric vehicles. Second, there was a net gain of used ZEVs into disadvantaged communities over the study period. Finally, the number of households in the highest income brackets and land use types play a significant role in which census tracts are sources and destinations for used ZEVs. While the highest income bracket does not seem to play a substantive role in either side of the market, the next three income brackets serve to both generate and procure used ZEVs.
    Keywords: Engineering, Zero emission vehicles, electric vehicles, used cars, used vehicle industry, demographics, linear regression analysis
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0p9928s8
  2. By: Arianna Burzacchi; Marco Pistore
    Abstract: Urban traffic regulation policies are increasingly used to address congestion, emissions, and accessibility in cities, yet their impacts are difficult to assess due to the socio-technical complexity of urban mobility systems. Recent advances in data availability and computational power enable new forms of model-driven, simulation-based decision support for transportation policy design. This paper proposes a novel simulation paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of both direct impacts (e.g., traffic conditions, modal shift, emissions) and indirect impacts spanning transportation-related effects, social equity, and economic accessibility. The approach integrates a multi-layer urban mobility model combining a physical layer of networks, flows, and emissions with a social layer capturing behavioral responses and adaptation to policy changes. Real-world data are used to instantiate the current "as-is" scenario, while policy alternatives and behavioral assumptions are encoded as model parameters to generate multiple "what-if" scenarios. The framework supports systematic comparison across scenarios by analyzing variations in simulated outcomes induced by policy interventions. The proposed approach is illustrated through a case study aims to assess the impacts of the introduction of broad urban traffic restriction schemes. Results demonstrate the framework's ability to explore alternative regulatory designs and user responses, supporting informed and anticipatory evaluation of urban traffic policies.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.07735
  3. By: Volker, Jamey; Handy, Susan
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2025–12–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9563v33g
  4. By: Lee, Amy; Millard-Ball, Adam; Manville, Michael
    Abstract: In 2022, California became the first state to eliminate parking requirements in certain neighborhoods. Assembly Bill 2097 (AB 2097) prohibits, in most circumstances, local governments from imposing parking requirements within a half-mile of an existing or planned major transit stop such as a rail station, ferry terminal, or the intersection of frequent bus routes. We examined how cities are responding to this new statewide law and draw out lessons for parking policy as well as other types of state preemption of local land use regulations.
    Keywords: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt22t184bb
  5. By: Rui Yao; Xinyu Ma; Kenan Zhang
    Abstract: This study models a Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) system as a multi-leader-multi-follower game that captures the complex interactions among the MaaS platform, service operators, and travelers. We consider a coopetitive setting where the MaaS platform purchases service capacity from service operators and sells multi-modal trips to travelers following an origin-destination-based pricing scheme; meanwhile, service operators use their remaining capacities to serve single-modal trips. As followers, travelers make both mode choices, including whether to use MaaS, and route choices in the multi-modal transportation network, subject to prices and congestion. Inspired by the dual formulation for traffic assignment problems, we propose a novel single-level variational inequality (VI) formulation by introducing a virtual traffic operator, along with the MaaS platform and multiple service operators. A key advantage of the proposed VI formulation is that it supports parallel solution procedures and thus enables large-scale applications. We prove that an equilibrium solution always exists given the negotiated wholesale price of service capacity. Numerical experiments on a small network further demonstrate that the wholesale price can be tailored to align with varying system-wide objectives. The proposed MaaS system demonstrates potential for creating a "win-win-win" outcome -- service operators and travelers are better off compared to the "without MaaS" scenario, meanwhile the MaaS platform remains profitable. Such a Pareto-improving regime can be explicitly specified with the wholesale capacity price. Similar conclusions are drawn from the experiment of an extended multi-modal Sioux Falls network, which also validates the scalability of the proposed model and solution algorithm.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.19880
  6. By: Hardman, Scott PhD; Karanam, Vaishnavi PhD
    Abstract: California has set an ambitious target to transition 100% of off-road vehicles and equipment to zero-emission (ZE) alternatives by 2035 “where feasible, ” as outlined in Executive Order N-79-20. Interviews were conducted with 16 stakeholders—contractors, manufacturers, rental firms, researchers, nonprofits, and public agencies. Intervieweesacknowledged positive attributes of ZE equipment, but barriers were more numerous and included inadequate charging infrastructure, limited grid access at job sites, high upfront equipment costs, limited ZE model availability, and complications with rental-based procurement models. Social and organizational barriers such as operator resistance, climate skepticism, and inequities faced by smaller firms were also noted. Most interviewees expressed skepticism that the 2035 ZE off-road goal is realistically achievable without significant policy and infrastructure support. Commonly recommended interventions included strengthening site-level grid capacity, expanding financial incentives and public investment, aligning regulations with market realities, and improving policymakers’ understanding of construction practices.
    Keywords: Engineering, Zero emission vehicles, All terrain vehicles, Technology adoption, Electric vehicle charging, Interviews, Policy analysis
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4qk0182c
  7. By: Hey, Florian; Zombek, Max
    Abstract: The automotive industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by digitization, enabling original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to exert increasing control over vehicle functions, data, and - consequently - aftersales markets. Despite high relevance for consumers, regulatory scrutiny remains limited. This paper examines whether these developments constitute digital gatekeeping in a functional sense, and whether they justify increased regulatory attention. We show that OEMs' digital strategiesreinforce their dominance in secondary markets, particularly repair and maintenance. We assess the current European regulatory framework, focusing on the European Motor Vehicle Block Exemption Regulation (MVBER), and argue that it has not kept pace with the realities of software-defined vehicles. The planned MVBER review provides an opportunity to reassess legacy privileges and adapt competition rules to the digital age. We discuss potential reforms, including improved data access, stronger interoperability standards, and a broader definition of aftermarket components. We also examine supplementary measures such as a Right to Repair regime and self-regulation. Our analysis concludes that OEMs increasingly act as digital gatekeepers and that existing frameworks inadequately address the resulting risks. Regulatory recalibration is needed to safeguard innovation, consumer welfare, and long-term market openness.
    Keywords: aftermarket, antitrust, car data, competition policy, connected car, data governance, digital ecosystems, Digital Markets Act (DMA), extended vehicle, gatekeeping, interoperability, Motor Vehicle Block Exemption Regulation (MVBER), non-discriminatory terms, Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), rent seeking, Right to Repair, software defined vehicle
    JEL: D72 K21 L40 L42 L50 L51 L62
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:335043
  8. By: Wang, Yitian; Vespignani, Joaquin; Smyth, Russell
    Abstract: Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective.
    Keywords: Critical Mineral, EV Battery, Stockpiling, Recycling
    JEL: O13 Q34 Q38 Q41
    Date: 2025–12–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127186
  9. By: Bergman, Aaron (Resources for the Future); Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future); Nehrkorn, Katarina (Resources for the Future); Zhu, Yuqi
    Abstract: Hydrogen has the potential to serve as a zero-carbon energy carrier as an element of a zero-carbon economy. But the high cost of clean hydrogen and infrastructure needs for scaling, plus the dismantling of policies to promote its production and use, have hampered its spread. Focusing on the heavy-duty trucking and ports sectors, we review the policy landscape here and abroad and the obstacles faced by clean hydrogen in these sectors. We present potential policies for overcoming the demand-side obstacles in these two sectors, with some focus on the nascent Biden administration’s Joint Offtake Producer Auction and its contrast with other policy ideas, such as contracts for differences. The discussion is organized around the obstacles of high cost, uptake of fuel cell vehicles and the construction of a refueling network for heavy-duty trucking. Among several suggestions, we find that hydrogen use in heavy-duty trucking requires more coordinated investment due to the need for extensive refueling infrastructure along transportation corridors.
    Date: 2026–01–23
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-03
  10. By: Keener, Steven; Finn, John; Baird, Andrew F.
    Abstract: In November 2025, a federal judge in the Eastern District of Virginia unsealed a spreadsheet containing the locations of 614 automatic license plate reader (ALPR) cameras currently in use in Hampton Roads, Virginia. ALPR cameras are an emergent form of networked surveillance infrastructure that capture images of every vehicle that passes by, generate a “vehicle fingerprint, ” and store those data in databases searchable by law enforcement, typically without warrants or court orders for access. The release of these locational data provides a rare opportunity to examine the opaque geography of contemporary surveillance and to assess whether ALPR camera deployment reproduces the same racialized and classed patterns long associated with policing and state surveillance in the United States. In this article, we use geographic information systems (GIS) and descriptive statistical analysis to map the distribution of 614 Flock Safety ALPR cameras in relation to racial and poverty profiles of the neighborhoods where the cameras are located. Our findings show that ALPR camera deployment is deeply and systematically racialized and economically stratified, with predominantly Black and high-poverty neighborhoods bearing a disproportionate share of ALPR surveillance infrastructure across Hampton Roads. We argue that these patterns do not reflect isolated siting decisions, but rather are the result of broader structural dynamics, including the privatization of surveillance infrastructure, weak democratic oversight, and the normalization of seemingly objective, tech-washed policing. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for public policy, civil liberties, democratic accountability, and Fourth Amendment protections.
    Date: 2026–01–13
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5ckgv_v1
  11. By: Orrenius, Johan (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: I study the digital market for attention in a freemium mobile game where users choose between paying with money or by watching 30-second video ads. Using unique event-level data, I estimate consumers’ supply elasticity of attention. In the aggregate, a one percent higher price increases the share of users watching videos as a payment by 2.2 percent. A substantial part is due to individual heterogeneity in tastes. When accounting for individual heterogeneity, the elasticity reduces to 0.5. The individual elasticities vary throughout the day, peaking in the evening. Complementing the unique data on each play made by users, I use data on the revenue to the gaming company from showing ads. The data is on an individual and daily level, allowing me to match the individual supply elasticity with the revenue from showing ads to the same individual. I find advertisers pay more to show ads to individuals who are less likely to use ads as their payment method. The effect is stronger among Android users than iOS users.
    Keywords: Attention; Mobile games; Value of time
    JEL: D12 D83 J22 L82
    Date: 2026–01–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1550
  12. By: Thais Diniz Oliveira (Food Systems and Global Change, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA); Paula Pereda (Dept. of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil); Ademir Rocha (Dept. of Economics, Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil); Samuel Bicego (Dept. of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil); Ana Clara Duran (NEPA, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil)
    Abstract: Carbon footprints have emerged as a key measure of anthropogenic pressure on the environment and are crucial for designing mitigation policies. However, obtaining an accurate assessment of these footprints requires accounting for the full range of emission sources and the regional variability embedded in production and consumption chains. To address these important issues, we quantify the carbon footprints of Brazilian households by combining multiple datasets and methodologies. We account for all major emission sources in Brazil (land-use change, agriculture and livestock, energy, industry, and waste) using a state-level multi-regional input–output (MRIO) framework integrated with household consumption microdata. Our analysis reveals that food, housing, and transport are the dominant drivers of per capita emissions among Brazilian households, with beef and dairy products emerging as key contributors within food consumption. Emissions increase sharply with income, shifting from food-related emissions in lower-income households to transport, housing, and services in wealthier ones. These results highlight the need for integrated climate policies that account for the full spectrum of emission sources while addressing regional disparities and income-related heterogeneity in emissions patterns.
    Keywords: Carbon footprints; Brazil; Region-specific; Emissions sources; Sustainability; Multi-regional input-output (MRIO)
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:022143

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