nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2025–06–23
eighteen papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam


  1. The relevance of RoRo shipping from the perspective of shippers: The case of the domestic deliveries of parts of two Japanese car manufacturers By Hidekazu Itoh; David Guerrero
  2. Pigovian Transport Pricing in Practice By Beat Hintermann; Beaumont Schoemann; Joseph Molloy; Thomas Götschi; Alberto Castro; Christopher Tchervenkov; Uros Tomic; Kay W. Axhausen
  3. Russia's transportation complex in 2024 By Yuriy Ponomarev; Ksenia Rostislav
  4. "Free rides to cleaner air? Examining the impact of massive public transport fare discounts on air quality" By Daniel Albalate; Mattia Borsati; Albert Gragera
  5. Rethinking Congestion as Lost Access By Tomasiello, Diego Bogado; Nadalin, Vanessa Gapriotti; Pereira, Rafael H. M.
  6. The Impact of Crime Perception on Public Transport Demand: Evidence from Six Latin American Capitals By De Martini, Santiago; Gonzalez, Juan B.; Perez-Vincent, Santiago M.
  7. "Difference-in-Difference models to estimate causal effects on auto insurers behavior" By Catalina Bolancé; Montserrat Guillen; Ana M. Pérez-Marín; Anna-Patrícia Orteu
  8. Shipping Network Research: A Systematic and Quantitative Review By Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet
  9. The RWI Climate-Mobility Panel: Survey data from 2018 By Andor, Mark Andreas; Hönow, Nils Christian; Hümmecke, Eva; Yang, Eva H.
  10. "Assessing Gender Bias in Climate Policy Interventions: Green Nudges and Commuting Choices" By Anna Claudia Caspani; Elena Maggi; Jordi J. Teixidó
  11. Advanced energy management strategy for microgrids with integrated battery storage and renewable generation By Ouafae El Ganaoui Mourlan; El Hadj Miliani; Meryem Moussadeq; Bilal Kabalan
  12. Road and Rail Transport Infrastructure in the Philippines: Current State, Issues, and Challenges By Navarro, Adoracion M.; Latigar, Jokkaz S.
  13. Sustainable inland transport connectivity indicators: Plurinational State of Bolivia, 2024 By Rodríguez Laconich, Mical
  14. Quelles alternatives aux organisations classiques des transports routiers de marchandises ? Une analyse en termes de conditions de travail et d’emploi By Pétronille Rème-Harnay
  15. Exploratory analysis of crash determinants By Metz-Peeters, Maike; Patragst, Jil-Laurel
  16. Unequal Journeys to Food Markets: Continental-Scale Evidence from Open Data in Africa By Robert Benassai-Dalmau; Vasiliki Voukelatou; Rossano Schifanella; Stefania Fiandrino; Daniela Paolotti; Kyriaki Kalimeri
  17. Combine and conquer: model averaging for out-of-distribution forecasting By Stephane Hess; Sander van Cranenburgh
  18. The hidden dimension of low-carbon public transport policies: From biodiversity conservation to user preferences By Stanislas Rigal; Coralie Calvet; Léa Tardieu; Sébastien Roussel; Anne-Charlotte Vaissière

  1. By: Hidekazu Itoh (School of Business Administration [Kwansei Gakuin] - Kwansei Gakuin University); David Guerrero
    Abstract: A frequently proposed approach to mitigate transport emissions involves shifting from all-road to an intermodal solution incorporating Roll-on/Roll-off (RoRo) shipping. While existing academic research predominantly examines this issue from the carrier's standpoint, focusing on enhancing Roro shipping supply to meet shipper demands, this article takes a different perspective by addressing the issue from the viewpoint of the shipper. The aim is to understand the production and commercial conditions under which Roro shipping is a viable alternative to road-based solutions. We analyze the cases studies of two Japanese car manufacturers, receiving parts from supplier plants located in Honshu to their assembly plants in Kyushu. Our findings reveal that the suitability of Roro over road transport is heavily influenced by several factors: (1) transportation volumes, (2) the specific procurement strategies of car manufacturers, (3) the degree of production synchronization between suppliers and assembly plants, and (4) the predictability of vehicle sales. Contrary to prevailing literature, our study suggests that shippers' modal choices are primarily constrained by their own industrial and commercial considerations rather than the availability and frequency of transportation services.
    Keywords: automotive industry shipper freight transportation modal shift RoRo shipping Japan, automotive industry, shipper, freight transportation, modal shift, RoRo shipping, Japan
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05065898
  2. By: Beat Hintermann; Beaumont Schoemann; Joseph Molloy; Thomas Götschi; Alberto Castro; Christopher Tchervenkov; Uros Tomic; Kay W. Axhausen
    Abstract: We implement Pigovian transport pricing in a field experiment in urban agglomerations of Switzerland over the course of 8 weeks. Our pricing considers the external costs from climate damages, health outcomes from pollution, accidents and physical activity, and congestion. It varies across time, space and mode of transport and is deducted from a budget provided to GPS-tracked participants. The treatment reduces the external costs of transport by 4.6% during the course of the experiment. The main underlying mechanism is a shift away from driving towards other modes, such as public transport, walking and cycling. Providing information about the external costs of transport alone is insufficient to change the transport behavior for the sample majority. We compute the welfare improvement due to mode shift to be 77 Swiss francs (or US dollars) per person and year, and that a fuel tax would achieve 70% of this gain.
    Keywords: transport pricing, Pigovian taxation, mobility, transportation, external costs, congestion, GPS-tracking
    JEL: H23 H31 I18 Q52 Q54 R41 R48
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11871
  3. By: Yuriy Ponomarev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ksenia Rostislav (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2024, despite the continuing pressure from the ongoing international sanction restrictions and new restrictive measures, the transportation industry demonstrated its ability to adapt, stabilize and build logistics supply chains, which is confirmed by the positive dynamics of cargo, freight and passenger traffic volumes. In the freight transportation industry, there is a trend towards the expansion of transportation and logistics services, which was facilitated by the development of transport and warehousing infrastructure. The growth of freight flows is facilitated by Russia’s inclusion in international trade and transport flows: according to preliminary estimates, in 2024, the volume of freight traffic along the Trans-Caspian international transport route (TCITR) increased significantly (by 63% to 4 mn tons). The development of passenger transport is facilitated by the growing demand for transportation services, in particular air services, as well as the growth of transportation efficiency due to an increase in flight hours and passenger seat occupancy. The sector managed to overcome the recession of the previous years and reduce the backlog of transportation workloads from pre-crisis levels.
    Keywords: Russian economy, transportation industry, freight tariffs, passenger traffic, railways
    JEL: L91 L92 L93 L99
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2025-1418
  4. By: Daniel Albalate (Dept. of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Mattia Borsati (Dept. of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Albert Gragera (Dept. of Applied Economics, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain.)
    Abstract: We quantify the effect of public transportation fare subsidies on air quality by exploiting the sharp discontinuity in the cost of ridership introduced by policy intervention. We identify this effect by taking advantage of four months of massive discounts for transit services introduced in Spain on September 1, 2022, as part of the national plan to tackle the global energy crisis. Across pollutants and specifications, we find no evidence that low-cost or free-of-charge public transportation financing schemes have improved air quality. Our results reveal that measures aimed at reducing transit prices may fail to achieve the claimed environmental benefits through a modal shift from private to collective modes of transport, which suggests that massive fare discounts may not represent an efficient allocation of public funds.
    Keywords: Public transportation; Air quality; Externalities; Pollutants; Modal shift. JEL classification: L92, Q53, R41, R48.
    Date: 2024–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202414
  5. By: Tomasiello, Diego Bogado; Nadalin, Vanessa Gapriotti; Pereira, Rafael H. M.
    Abstract: Urban congestion is a persistent problem in large cities worldwide. However, congestion is typically assessed from a mobility perspective using traffic performance measures, with limited attention to its impact on urban accessibility. Here, we propose reframing congestion, not merely as problem of slower speeds and longer travel times, but as lost access to opportunities due to excess time in traffic. To illustrate this, we estimate the impact of congestion on employment accessibility in Brazil’s 20 largest cities, analyzing how these effects vary spatially and by income level. Using historical GPS-based traffic speed data, we compare the number of jobs reachable by car within a 15-45-minute window during morning peak versus free-flow conditions. In the most congested cities, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, the number of accessible jobs drops by an average of 36%–46.4% due to traffic congestion. In contrast, the least congested cities see reductions of only 2.1%–3.2%. Across all cities, low-income communities face the most severe impacts, with an average 24.8% reduction in accessibility, compared to just 5.6% among high-income groups. These findings are used to discuss broader research and policy implications of reframing congestion as lost access. From an equity standpoint, this paradigm shift enables a more comprehensive understanding of how the adverse effects of congestion are distributed across social groups – an insight not captured by traditional traffic metrics. This approach also reveals the spatially and socially uneven impacts of congestion, opening avenues for future research on how it may exacerbate accessibility poverty and inequality.
    Date: 2025–05–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fjdbs_v1
  6. By: De Martini, Santiago; Gonzalez, Juan B.; Perez-Vincent, Santiago M.
    Abstract: Public urban transportation systems are essential for mitigating climate change, leading policymakers to intensify efforts to boost ridership. However, there is not much evidence showing up to what extent, in regions with high crime rates like Latin America, safety perception could limit these efforts. This paper studies the impact of crime and crime perception on public transport demand across six Latin American capitals. Using a sample of 5, 160 participants, we conduct three preregistered experiments to quantify the impact of crime on public transport choices and policy preferences. In the first experiment, we estimate the willingness to pay for safety by offering participants a choice between buses with varying crime rates and fares. We find that users place a substantial premium (51% of the current bus ticket) on safer transport options. The second experiment explores the substitution effect between private and public transport, revealing that higher crime rates diminish the likelihood of choosing public transport, even when offered at a reduced fare. The third experiment examines how crime perception influences public support for different transport policies. Our results show that a higher crime perception shifts support toward crime reduction initiatives at the expense of service efficiency and environmental policies. These results highlight the need for policies that integrate safety improvements to increase public transport ridership and contribute to climate change mitigation.
    Keywords: Public Transportation;Crime;environmental policy effectiveness;Experiments
    JEL: R41 R48 C91
    Date: 2025–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14139
  7. By: Catalina Bolancé (Department of Econometrics Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Montserrat Guillen (Department of Econometrics Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Ana M. Pérez-Marín (Department of Econometrics Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Anna-Patrícia Orteu (Department of Econometrics Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.)
    Abstract: The Difference-in-Difference (DiD) method is useful to test if an event has effects in a given outcome using non-experimental data. Based on DiD method, we propose alternative panel models to estimate the causal effects of the traffic accidents on driving behavior patterns: the total annual driving distance in km, the percent of km circulated above the speed limits, in urban areas and at night. We use a data set provided by an ”insurtech” company that uses car sensors to measure driving data over a period of three years. The estimation results show as the causal effects of accidents are different if we consider frequency of accidents, type of damages and whose fault is the accident. Furthermore, different profiles of policyholders in function of drivers and cars characteristics are associated with specific causal effects.
    Keywords: Telematics; average treatment effect; panel data; damages, fault; drivers heterogeneity. JEL classification: C21, C55, G22.
    Date: 2024–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202411
  8. By: Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet
    Abstract: Once developed by geographers, shipping network research has long remained a peripheral subfield of academia. Increased shipping data availability and computational power, combined with renewed graph-theoretical methods, caused an unprecedented growth of shipping network studies since the late 2000s. This article provides an in-depth bibliometric analysis of no less than 329 peer-reviewed papers published between 2007 and 2025. First, it describes the gathered corpus from diverse angles, such as the growth of papers, the main journals, its disciplinary background, and the pattern of co-authorships. Second, we use a natural language processing (NLP) approach, namely the structural topic model, to undertake an in-depth analysis based on the contents of abstracts. We identify four main topics, of which trade and connectivity; hubs and centrality; vulnerability and robustness; and communities and spatial structure, which are discussed according to their innovative character compared with wider research on ports, maritime transport, and network science. Three additional subgroups received peripheral attention despite their core importance: environmental issues (of which, marine bioinvasions), socio-economic development, and the role of shipping alliances. We conclude that network science methods still have important potential in shipping network port and maritime studies, and propose several pathways for further research.
    Keywords: bibliometric analysis; complex networks; graph theory; maritime transport; scientometrics; shipping network; social network analysis; structural topic modeling
    JEL: R41 F10
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-27
  9. By: Andor, Mark Andreas; Hönow, Nils Christian; Hümmecke, Eva; Yang, Eva H.
    Abstract: This data report describes the first wave of the RWI Climate-Mobility Panel, a recurring household survey that aims in particular to investigate individual mobility behavior and preferences with regard to mobility-related policies. It further includes information on attitudes towards environmental protection and climate change of household members in Germany as well as on socio-economic individual and household characteristics. The project was conducted by the RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and funded by Stiftung Mercator. This first survey includes data from more than 7, 000 German households and was collected via forsa from April to June 2018. In combination with subsequent waves in 2019, 2022 and 2024, it is possible to monitor, for example, changes in mobility behavior and policy preferences over time. This first survey contains additional cross-sectional data on several transport-related topics, such as an assessment of the perceived costs of private car use and an experiment to assess participants' willingness to pay for public transport tickets, as well as selected psychological scales. This uniquely comprehensive dataset serves as a support to enable novel research and evidence-based policy decisions in the context of the mobility and transport transition.
    Abstract: Die vorliegende Datensatzbeschreibung bezieht sich auf die erste Welle des RWI Klima-Mobilitäts-Panels, einer regelmäßig durchgeführten Haushaltsbefragung, die insbesondere das individuelle Mobilitätsverhalten und die Zustimmung zu verkehrspolitischen Maßnahmen erfasst. Darüber hinaus wird die Einstellung zu Umweltschutz und Klimawandel abgefragt, ebenso wie sozioökonomische Merkmale. Das Projekt wurde vom RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung durchgeführt und von der Stiftung Mercator gefördert. Die erste Welle umfasst Daten von mehr als 7.000 Haushalten in Deutschland und wurde von April bis Juni 2018 von forsa erhoben. In Kombination mit den Wellen in den Jahren 2019, 2022 und 2024 können beispielsweise Veränderungen im Mobilitätsverhalten und in den Präferenzen für verkehrspolitische Maßnahmen im Zeitverlauf beobachtet werden. Zusätzlich enthält diese erste Erhebung Querschnittsdaten zu verschiedenen verkehrsrelevanten Themen, wie z. B. eine Einschätzung der wahrgenommenen Kosten der privaten Pkw-Nutzung und ein Experiment zur Ermittlung der Zahlungsbereitschaft für ÖPNV-Tickets, sowie ausgewählte psychologische Skalen. Dieser in seiner Art einzigartige und umfassende Datensatz dient als Grundlage für neue Forschungsarbeiten und evidenzbasierte politische Entscheidungen im Zusammenhang der Mobilitäts- und Verkehrswende.
    Keywords: Household panel, mobility, climate change, transport transition, acceptance, public transport, private transport
    JEL: D12 D83 L91 Q58 R41 R48
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:319073
  10. By: Anna Claudia Caspani (University of Insubria, Department of Economics, Via Monte Generoso, Varese, Italy.); Elena Maggi (University of Insubria, Department of Economics, Via Monte Generoso, Varese, Italy.); Jordi J. Teixidó (GiM-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.)
    Abstract: Private transport is a leading contributor to climate change and local pollution in many countries. As a result, commuting choices have become paramount. Our main research question is how gender affects these choices. This paper analyzes the gender heterogeneity of informational interventions (green nudges) on the willingness of car commuters to adopt more sustainable commuting habits. To isolate causal evidence, we conducted a survey experiment with a randomly assigned informational treatment – a visual representation of the carbon footprint associated with different commuting options – among students at a university in northern Italy. The results show that the nudge increased the participants’ willingness to forego their private car by 7-9%. Heterogeneous analyses reveal a novel gender-specific pattern in nudge effectiveness: female car commuters exhibit a consistently greater reluctance to forego private vehicles in response to the treatment compared to male car commuters. Potential mechanisms include differing mobility patterns, security concerns, and lower social desirability bias among women. In all cases, this gender discrepancy documents the importance of integrating a gender perspective in climate policy interventions to enhance both effectiveness and public support.
    Keywords: gender; local climate policy; commuting; green nudges; survey experiment; public support. JEL classification: D91, H23, M38, Q58.
    Date: 2024–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202412
  11. By: Ouafae El Ganaoui Mourlan (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); El Hadj Miliani (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); Meryem Moussadeq (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Bilal Kabalan (LICIT-Eco7 - Laboratoire d’Ingénierie Circulation Transport et Éco-gestion des systèmes énergétiques pour les transports - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Abstract: As electric mobility gains popularity, Electric Vehicles (EVs) and their batteries are becoming more attractive due to their size and energy density advantages. However, the electric grid has not undergone similar improvements, potentially impacting power stability and affecting EV energy usage and availability. The key challenge lies in managing increasing power demands from a fully EV fleet. To address this, efforts are needed to analyze the integration of EVs into the grid and optimize power distribution. In this paper, an innovative Energy Management Strategy (EMS) is proposed to effectively control energy loads, energy sources, and EVs, incorporating Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) capability. The EMS optimizes energy flow and storage based on time of day, potential energy production, and the cost of grid electricity. The integration of this EMS results in significant benefits, with approximately 12% savings in electricity bills compared to a reference strategy.
    Keywords: Electric vehicles, Renewable energy sources, Vehicle-to-grid, Smart grid, Microgrid, Energy management strategy, Optimization
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05075708
  12. By: Navarro, Adoracion M.; Latigar, Jokkaz S.
    Abstract: This study assesses the state of the country’s road and rail transport infrastructure, identifies the challenges in the implementation of the related public investment program, and generates policy insights from the analysis. Quantity and quality indicators show that the Philippines continues to suffer from inadequate and poor quality road and rail transport infrastructure. The country has even fallen behind its Association of Southeast Asian Nations neighbors in improving the quantity and quality of its roads and rails. Many of the targets set in the Philippine Development Plan, the Public Investment Program, and the expenditure program were not met. The low absorptive capacity, as indicated by unmet expenditure targets of the major agencies in charge of the road and rail transport subsectors, suggests problems in implementation. Persistent problems in implementation pertain to right-of-way acquisition, financing, political intervention, weak capacity at the local government level, natural calamities, and project management issues. There also have been newly introduced problems, such as the adverse effects of the pandemic on the materials and manpower supply chain and delays in the release of project funds. To help address these issues, the study recommends that Congress enact a long-term national transport plan. In the interim, the executive branch must strictly adhere to the principles of its National Transport Policy and execute its self-imposed prescription to craft a national transport master plan. Capacity-building programs for local government units must continue and local road databases—which are important in helping prioritize areas for national government support—must be completed and integrated. To reduce political influences on project implementation, reform champions must come to the fore and regional development councils ought to institutionalize their procedures.
    Keywords: transport infrastructure;public investment program;road transport;rail transport;infrastructure quality
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2025-04
  13. By: Rodríguez Laconich, Mical
    Abstract: The Sustainable Inland Transport Connectivity Indicators (SITCIN) evaluate the efficiency of transport systems and the alignment of legal frameworks with international legal instruments for transport and border-crossing facilitation. SITCIN enables countries to track their progress in areas such as the implementation of regional or international conventions on transport, harmonization of national rules with UN legal instruments, achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the Vienna Programme of Action. This tool was developed as part of the United Nations Development Account (UNDA) project, titled “Sustainable transport connectivity and implementation of transportrelated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in selected landlocked and transit/bridging countries”. The project was led by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in collaboration with the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (ESCWA). This report assesses 101 SITCIN indicators related to road and inland waterway transport in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, covering three of the six SITCIN chapters: (i) Border Crossing Facilitation, (ii) Transport Infrastructure and (iii) Safety and Security. The report provides a SWOT analysis for all covered chapters and, where applicable, outlines the legal Bolivia (Plurinational State of) must implement after ratifying the Accession Protocol to the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR).
    Date: 2025–02–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:81304
  14. By: Pétronille Rème-Harnay (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05071026
  15. By: Metz-Peeters, Maike; Patragst, Jil-Laurel
    Abstract: This study presents an exploratory analysis of the key factors contributing to fatal and severe crashes on German motorways. We employ Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, combined with Lasso regularization and stability selection, to explore model specifications incorporating potentially many interaction terms and polynomials. Utilizing an extensive data set including rich geo-spatial characteristics for 500-meter segments covering large parts of the German motorway network, key variables influencing crash frequency are uncovered. To obtain correct standard errors post variable selection, we split the data into separate samples for model selection and parameter estimation. Our results indicate that the inclusion of a limited number of higher-order terms significantly improves the regression formulation. Robustness checks confirm the stability of these findings. The results offer clearer insights into the key crash determinants and are more computationally feasible than simulation-based methods commonly used in accident research.
    Abstract: Diese Studie präsentiert eine explorative Analyse von Schlüsselfaktoren, die zu tödlichen und schweren Unfällen auf deutschen Autobahnen beitragen. Wir verwenden Poisson- und Negativ-Binomial-Regressionen, kombiniert mit Lasso-Regularization und Stability Selection, um Modellspezifikationen mit potenziell zahlreichen Interaktionstermen und Polynomen zu untersuchen. Basierend auf einem umfangreichen Datensatz, der raumbezogene Merkmale für 500-Meter-Abschnitte des deutschen Autobahnnetzes enthält, werden zentrale Variablen identifiziert, die die Unfallhäufigkeit beeinflussen. Um korrekte Standardfehler nach der Variablenselektion zu gewährleisten, teilen wir die Daten in separate Stichproben für Modellauswahl und Parameterschätzung. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Einbeziehung einer begrenzten Anzahl Terme höherer Ordnung die Regressionsformulierung signifikant verbessert. Robustheitstests bestätigen die Stabilität dieser Erkenntnisse. Die Resultate bieten Einblick in die zentralen Unfalldeterminanten und sind rechnerisch effizienter als simulationsbasierte Methoden, die in der Unfallforschung üblicherweise eingesetzt werden.
    Keywords: Road safety, crash frequency, lasso regression, machine learning, stability selection
    JEL: C52 H10 R41
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:319076
  16. By: Robert Benassai-Dalmau; Vasiliki Voukelatou; Rossano Schifanella; Stefania Fiandrino; Daniela Paolotti; Kyriaki Kalimeri
    Abstract: Food market accessibility is a critical yet underexplored dimension of food systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we present a continent-wide assessment of spatial food market accessibility in Africa, integrating open geospatial data from OpenStreetMap and the World Food Programme. We compare three complementary metrics: travel time to the nearest market, market availability within a 30-minute threshold, and an entropy-based measure of spatial distribution, to quantify accessibility across diverse settings. Our analysis reveals pronounced disparities: rural and economically disadvantaged populations face substantially higher travel times, limited market reach, and less spatial redundancy. These accessibility patterns align with socioeconomic stratification, as measured by the Relative Wealth Index, and moderately correlate with food insecurity levels, assessed using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Overall, results suggest that access to food markets plays a relevant role in shaping food security outcomes and reflects broader geographic and economic inequalities. This framework provides a scalable, data-driven approach for identifying underserved regions and supporting equitable infrastructure planning and policy design across diverse African contexts.
    Date: 2025–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.07913
  17. By: Stephane Hess; Sander van Cranenburgh
    Abstract: Travel behaviour modellers have an increasingly diverse set of models at their disposal, ranging from traditional econometric structures to models from mathematical psychology and data-driven approaches from machine learning. A key question arises as to how well these different models perform in prediction, especially when considering trips of different characteristics from those used in estimation, i.e. out-of-distribution prediction, and whether better predictions can be obtained by combining insights from the different models. Across two case studies, we show that while data-driven approaches excel in predicting mode choice for trips within the distance bands used in estimation, beyond that range, the picture is fuzzy. To leverage the relative advantages of the different model families and capitalise on the notion that multiple `weak' models can result in more robust models, we put forward the use of a model averaging approach that allocates weights to different model families as a function of the \emph{distance} between the characteristics of the trip for which predictions are made, and those used in model estimation. Overall, we see that the model averaging approach gives larger weight to models with stronger behavioural or econometric underpinnings the more we move outside the interval of trip distances covered in estimation. Across both case studies, we show that our model averaging approach obtains improved performance both on the estimation and validation data, and crucially also when predicting mode choices for trips of distances outside the range used in estimation.
    Date: 2025–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03693
  18. By: Stanislas Rigal (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Coralie Calvet (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier, SENS - Savoirs, ENvironnement et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry); Léa Tardieu (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sébastien Roussel (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Anne-Charlotte Vaissière (ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ECOBIO - Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] - UR - Université de Rennes - INEE-CNRS - Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - OSERen - Observatoire des sciences de l'environnement de Rennes - UR - Université de Rennes - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Transport infrastructures dedicated to low-carbon public transport are seen as a central tool in public policy strategies to mitigate climate change. Yet, the development of transport infrastructures has significant direct and indirect negative effects on biodiversity and social acceptability of these impacts remain little assessed. In this study, we analyse potential impacts of 20 tramway existing projects in France and social preferences with regard to their ecological and landscape integration. Using a discrete choice experiment on 1000 respondents, we show that users, even the most time constrained, are accepting an average travel time lengthening of 15 %, if tramway project integration retains a more wooded landscape, more diverse and abundant species and access to a natural area. We show that brief information provided on the state of biodiversity through framing encourages environmental consideration. We quantify the estimated impact of these projects on the naturalness of habitats and the buffer effect that project ecological integration could allow. These results highlight the non-negligible ecological impact of low-carbon transport infrastructures. They underline the need to consider climate change mitigation strategies in tandem with biodiversity preservation, while taking into account user preferences which affect the acceptability of the ecological and landscape integration of these projects.
    Keywords: Choice experiment, Tram, Transport policy, Urban biodiversity
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05085536

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