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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Ramji, Aditya PhD; Fulton, Lewis PhD; Cazzola, Pierpaolo |
| Abstract: | A rapid transition to a near-zero-emission transportation system in California and Europe will require rapid uptake of transportation technologies, changes in transportation services, and investments in associated infrastructure. These in turn require policy innovations. This report compares California and EU policies across three broad areas: 1) greenhouse gas (GHG) targets for 2030 to 2050; 2) progress on reducing GHG emissions from different transportation modes; and 3) current strategies and policies to achieve targets. Differences by region and across major modes are identified. Strategies cover electrification, uptake of hydrogen, aviation and shipping fuels, and modal shifts. Policies include regulatory requirements (fuel economy and CO2 standards, fuel standards); incentive programs, including taxation, feebates, and others; direct investment programs; equity considerations and environmental justice-related initiatives. In both geographies, a range of impactful policies are in place. However, these fall short of guaranteeing that targets will be met, and more actions will likely be needed. Some possibilities are presented, with a particular focus on pricing strategies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Decarbonization, Zero emission vehicles, Greenhouse gases, Sustainable transportation, Alternate fuels, Policy analysis, Regulation |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6d08m3s5 |
| By: | Riggs, William (University of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of literature argues that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will substantially increase vehicle miles traveled (VMT), contributing to congestion, induced demand, and environmental externalities. Recent work by Naz and Mattingly (2026) synthesizes 25 studies and concludes that AV deployment is associated with an average increase in VMT across both shared and non-shared AV scenarios. However, the underlying literature remains dominated by simulation-based approaches, synthetic demand modeling, and legacy travel survey data collected prior to widespread rideshare adoption and operational AV deployment. This paper critically reassesses the methodological foundations of the AV–VMT literature through a structured inventory and classification of the studies included in Naz and Mattingly’s meta-analysis. The analysis identifies recurring endogenous mechanisms embedded within the literature, including reductions in generalized travel cost, travel burden, and value of travel time (VOTT), which structurally privilege AV adoption and systematically inflate projected VMT outcomes. At the same time, few studies incorporate observed AV rider behavior, empirical occupancy rates, operational pricing dynamics, or adaptive fleet learning. Drawing on emerging evidence from operational AV systems, including Waymo fleet data, shows that he share of empty VMT declined from ~63% to ~44% since 2023 for real world deployments while passenger serving VMT increased from 37% to 56%. This underscores an argument that AVs should be understood not as static hypothetical vehicles, but as adaptive operational mobility systems embedded within platform, pricing, and fleet management constraints. The paper concludes by proposing a minimum operational data standard for future AV–VMT research and argues that the field must transition from hypothetical scenario modeling toward empirically grounded operational evaluation. |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hqmxc_v1 |
| By: | Siqueira, Matheus Fontenelle; Loureiro, Carlos Felipe Grangeiro |
| Abstract: | The paradigm shift from mobility to accessibility planning demands analytical approaches to understanding and modeling travel behavior. Yet most behavioral frameworks still lack a clearer representation of how urban form, individual, accessibility, and travel behavior relate to each other; most represent accessibility indirectly through exogenous attributes of the built environment and transport networks, neglecting its temporal, individual and digital components. This paper proposes a conceptual framework that positions accessibility as the central mediator between urban structure and individual travel decisions. Grounded in time geography and building on the multidimensional accessibility model of Geurs and van Wee (2004, 2026), the framework integrates land-use, transport, temporal, individual-and-social, and digital components, and articulates how tangible constraints and perceptions jointly shape travel behavior. The framework is designed to accommodate feedback loops and self-selection mechanisms, providing a structure for both theoretical reflection and empirical analysis. As a proof of concept, we apply it through a multigroup Structural Equation Model to household travel survey data from Fortaleza, Brazil, a highly segregated metropolis. The empirical results support the mediating role of accessibility and reveal gendered differences in how its components translate into motorized and non-motorized mobility. By making explicit the influences of accessibility components on travel behavior, the framework offers researchers and planners a structured basis for hypothesis formulation and for aligning transport modeling with goals of social inclusion, accessibility equity, and sustainable urban development. |
| Date: | 2026–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xa23j_v1 |
| By: | Locky Xianglong Liu; Jason Nassios; Janine Dixon |
| Abstract: | This report uses VURMTAX, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of Australia, to assess the economy-wide effects of two heavy vehicle reform scenarios: (1) increasing heavy vehicle road access; and, (2) establishing a National Automated Access System (NAAS). The first scenario is modelled as a nationwide multifactor productivity improvement in the Road Freight sector, together with an increase in road wear costs, reflecting additional public expenditure required to maintain road infrastructure quality. The second scenario is modelled as a Road Freight multifactor productivity improvement applying to all Australian states and territories except Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Policy shock inputs for both scenarios are provided by the Productivity Commission based on estimates of BITRE (forthcoming). This report draws on database and model development work that disaggregates the use of different commercial vehicle classes across industries and regions within the economy, thereby improving the representation of heavy vehicles in VURMTAX. Results indicate that both reforms generate positive economy-wide gains, including higher real GDP, household consumption, investment, and output in road freight-using industries, although the size and distribution of economic impacts vary across regions and sectors in each scenario. |
| Keywords: | CGE modelling, Transport policy, Heavy Vehicle, Road Freight |
| JEL: | C68 E62 H2 H71 R38 R48 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-368 |
| By: | Karanam, Vaishnavi; Tal, Gil; Garas, Dahlia |
| Abstract: | The Caltrans ZEV 30-30 project is established to support California's goal of deploying five million ZEVs on the road by 2030, focusing on filling gaps in the State Highway System's corridor ZEV charging network. The reliability of DC Fast Charging (DCFC) infrastructure along these corridors is essential. Unreliable chargers erode driver confidence and undermine the transition to zero-emission transportation. Charging Station Operators (CSOs) currently rely on conventional monitoring protocols, primarily the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP), to detect charger failures. While OCPP-based monitoring is effective for detecting most electrical and software failures, it cannot identify a broad class of faults arising from mechanical damage, physical obstruction, network communication outages, or logistical barriers. [1, 2] These hidden issues persist until an EV driver encounters the faulty charger and reports the problem, leading to delayed fault resolution and degraded consumer experience.This report presents a predictive anomaly detection tool developed under Caltrans Agreement No. 65A1188 that enables Charging Station Operators to detect hidden charging faults by analyzing habitual EV driver usage patterns. The tool incorporates two anomaly detection models: a naïve probability distribution-based technique and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicle, DCFC, Charging system operator, charger failure, fault, reliability, remote, anomaly detection |
| Date: | 2026–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3x94v79x |
| By: | Yao-pei Wang; Yong Tu; Yi Fan |
| Abstract: | Using the outbreak of COVID-19 in Singapore as a quasi-natural experiment, we investigate tenants' changing responses to road traffic noise in the rental housing market, using 46, 980 transaction records between 2006 and 2022. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that road traffic noise decreases housing rents by 3.8% immediately after the pandemic outbreak and further declines by 12.7% in the subsequent year-equivalent to 186.7 US dollars per month. The results are robust to parallel trend analysis, permutation placebo tests, and tests using alternative distance thresholds or distance to the nearest main road. Then, we adopt a machine learning text analysis of 10, 425 rental housing advertisements, showing that tenants' preference for quietness increases by approximately 10% from 2019 into 2020. The new work-from-home business model and rising traffic from delivery services can explain for this pattern. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper using a large volume of transaction records to quantify city dwellers' willingness to pay for quietness in the COVID-19 context. Our results have policy implications for other nations and post-pandemic era on the interaction among urban planning, transport networks, and human settlements, and shed light on the pathway to achieve sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.18677 |
| By: | Ghose, Devaki; Karpaty, Patrik; Söderlund, Bengt; Zhao, Yingyan |
| Abstract: | How does transport infrastructure shape services provision, labor markets, and regional inequality? This paper studies the 2000 opening of the Øresund Bridge between Malmö, Sweden, and Copenhagen, Denmark, which sharply reduced travel time. The setting mirrors infrastructure linking peripheral regions to urban hubs, while the border makes unobserved services measurable in trade statistics. The bridge enabled cross-border commuting for on-site services and lowered business-travel costs for partially remote services like consulting. The paper develops a spatial model with commuting, migration, and services trade to separate these channels and quantify welfare effects. Services trade is distance-sensitive, with elasticities from −1.06 to −0.45, but less so than commuting. Lower commuting costs thus generate uneven gains, while lower services trade costs produce more diffuse benefits. Ignoring services understates welfare gains of infrastructure by 18%, especially for farther regions benefiting through services trade via business travel but not commuting. |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11394 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article examines Azerbaijan’s transformation from a hydrocarbon exporter into an increasingly important Eurasian transport and logistics hub, situating this shift within the political economy of connectivity rather than treating it as a purely infrastructural achievement. It traces the origins of this strategy to the 1998 TRACECA agreement, well before the post-2022 surge of international interest in the Middle Corridor, and argues that recent geopolitical shocks — the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and instability in the Middle East — have accelerated rather than created Azerbaijan’s transit role. Drawing on recent freight and transit data, the article shows that Azerbaijan has successfully embedded itself within Eurasian trade networks, but that freight growth since 2022 has been driven substantially by external diversion from competing routes rather than by domestic structural transformation. It further examines the European Union’s Global Gateway investments, Azerbaijan’s own infrastructure programme at the Port of Alat and along the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, and the emergence of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) as an instrument linking connectivity to regional peacebuilding. The article concludes that Azerbaijan’s long-term competitiveness as a transit hub will depend less on geography or infrastructure than on institutional modernization — customs reform, digitalization, regulatory harmonization, and economic diversification — without which the country risks capturing only a limited share of the value generated by the trade it facilitates. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Middle Corridor, Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), TRACECA, Global Gateway, Baku International Sea Trade Port, Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, Zangezur Corridor, TRIPP, International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), political economy of transit, institutional reform, regional connectivity |
| JEL: | R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342605 |
| By: | Truska, Tyler; Gunay, Selim PhD; Cohen, Adam; Kharobo, Atiila Joselyn Birah; Liu, Yati; Hansen, Mark PhD |
| Abstract: | Airports play a critical role in emergency response and disaster recovery, yet are highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Past earthquakes in California, including the 1989 Loma Prieta, 1994 Northridge, and 2014 South Napa events, caused infrastructure damage, power outages, and operational delays at airports, affecting both safety and mobility. As seismic risk remains high across the state, improving airport resilience is critical to maintaining transportation access and supporting emergency operations.Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems offer a way to reduce these risks by providing seconds to tens of seconds of advance notice before strong shaking begins. While this technology has been around for several decades across the world, the development of the ShakeAlert system has brought it to the West Coast recently, giving airports in the region the chance to be early adopters of the technology in the United States. To better understand how EEW could be used in airport settings, we examined its operational applications, benefits, and implementation challenges across different types of airports. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1gr9k6hv |
| By: | Ramos, Camila; Timmer, Dick |
| Abstract: | Transport poverty is an important pillar of contemporary transport research. Yet, it remains a contested concept that lacks a clear and unified theoretical foundation. This makes it difficult to determine under which conditions an individual can be considered transport poor, or how competing policy priorities should be balanced when allocating often scarce transport resources. In this paper, we identify five key elements that transport researchers and policymakers should consider in developing a theory of transport poverty, including the metric of transport poverty, its threshold, and the allocative implications that follow from a commitment to reducing transport poverty. In doing so, we provide a common language for conceptualising transport poverty, informing policy, and structuring ongoing debate. At the end of this paper, we examine how existing strands of transport literature engaging with the discussion on transport poverty could constitute a promising foundation for developing a fuller theory of transport poverty. |
| Date: | 2026–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:eu96v_v1 |
| By: | Khan, Sarah; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8535561d |
| By: | Zhang, Yuan; Anderson, Andrew; McKenzie, Andrew; Park, Eunchun; Pates, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | ecent and pending rail mergers renew questions about the trade-off between operational efficiency and market power. We examined the 2023 Canadian Pacific (CP)–Kansas City Southern (KCS) merger and its effects on grain basis using elevator-level cash bids from 2016-2024, comparing CPKC elevators with other carriers in a difference-in-differences framework. Corn basis improved at elevators in grain surplus regions but declined at elevators in grain deficit regions. Soybean basis showed little persistent response. Wheat basis strengthened, with all sample elevators in production regions. Our results suggest this consolidation improved transportation efficiency with net welfare gains for grain producers and users. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea26:404833 |
| By: | Manabu Nose (Keio University, Faculty of Economics); Yasuyuki Sawada (University of Tokyo, Faculty of Economics, Graduate School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Why do transport investments induce polycentric industrial growth in specific instances, rather than reinforcing existing cores? By investigating large-scale Greater Mekong Subregion highway projects in Northern Vietnam, where postwar state-led reconstruction restored monocentric urban structure following wartime devastation, this paper shows that later corridor investments generated nonlinear, polycentric industrial growth. Improved market access induced large manufacturing entry in agrarian peripheries, with effects amplified by local supply-chain depth. A spatial general equilibrium model with input-output linkages replicates this mechanism. The corridor raised income but widened spatial inequality, a trade-off mitigated by feeder-road complementarity. Infrastructure acts as a spatial big push only when connectivity and production networks jointly trigger new clusters. Overall, a structural shift from monocentric battlefield resilience to polycentric market expansion is catalyzed by infrastructure investments. *Revised DP2025-010 |
| Keywords: | spatial structural transformation, market access, agglomeration, input-output linkages, core-periphery |
| JEL: | H54 O14 O18 R11 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-014 |
| By: | Zihao Zhang; Yuanbo Zhang; Xiaolei Ma; Yuan Liao |
| Abstract: | Urban decarbonization often raises the cost of travel, yet which neighbourhoods can adapt remains largely invisible under normal conditions. We leverage the 2026 US-Iran oil shock as a natural experiment, applying a hierarchical panel regression discontinuity design to 1.7 trillion point-of-interest visits across 122, 000 neighbourhoods in China and the United States. Mobility range declined in nearly three-quarters of neighbourhoods, but responses varied systematically with pre-shock urban conditions. Exposure to energy-intensive travel explained the largest share of modelled heterogeneity in both countries, while adaptive capacity and activity composition further shaped how travel was reorganized. Longer baseline travel intensified contraction, whereas greater car dependence constrained adjustment. Crucially, similar mobility outcomes arose from different processes: some neighbourhoods maintained travel by absorbing higher costs, whereas others appeared structurally locked into travel they could not reorganize. Fuel-price shocks, therefore, act as urban stress tests, revealing otherwise hidden inequalities in mobility adaptation. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.12281 |
| By: | Brazzola, Nicoletta |
| Abstract: | The war in Iran has led to kerosene prices roughly doubling and forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights. Some voices from the industry have used the crisis to call for climate policies to be relaxed. However, this misreads what the crisis actually demonstrates: Costs are being driven not by too much climate policy, but by dependence on fossil energy itself. In 2026/27 the European Union (EU) will decide whether to end the "stop the clock" exemption that has shielded international flights from the Emissions Trading System (ETS) since 2013 and extend the ETS to all departures from the European Economic Area, or whether such flights will continue to be covered by international offsetting mechanisms. The decision will have implications well beyond aviation: for the EU's 2040 climate target, the demand for durable CO2 removal, and the credibility of European climate policy more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Off-setting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), EU aviation, Iran war, Climate Policy, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, SAF, EU Emis-sions Trading System, ETS, Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for Interna-tional Aviation, CORSIA, Article 6.4 credits, ReFuelEU, International Civil Aviati-on Organization, ICAO, carbon dioxide removal, CDR, direct air capture with carbon storage, DACCS |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:342580 |
| By: | Tien Mai |
| Abstract: | Route and activity choice are connected levels of a common sequential mobility decision problem: activity choice determines what people do, where, and when, while route choice governs how they move between activities. This review develops a unified framework connecting transportation choice modeling with inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) and imitation learning (IL). Under explicit assumptions, recursive logit, logit dynamic discrete choice, and maximum-entropy IRL share a soft Bellman representation, while trajectory occupancies and network flows satisfy related conservation laws. However, utility, reward, policy, occupancy, constraints, and observation errors remain different estimands with different behavioral and counterfactual interpretations. We review constrained and inverse-constrained learning, occupancy-ratio and DICE methods, incomplete and mixed-quality demonstrations, graph and sequence learning, transfer, data fusion, multi-agent choice, and large language models. Our central message is that machine learning adds the greatest value when embedded within a behaviorally disciplined framework: exact transitions enforce feasibility, structured rewards preserve interpretable trade-offs, observation models address heterogeneous data sources, and network or equilibrium solvers produce coherent system outcomes. Such hybrid models can improve scalability and prediction without sacrificing behavioral identification or policy relevance. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.15339 |
| By: | Chen, Wei; Wang, Xinyue; Yu, Jialing; Chen, Junliang |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure-led development and agricultural land preservation represent competing priorities in rapidly developing countries. This study examines the causal impact of rural road construction on land use in China from 1995 to 2020, using a village-level panel of 381, 153 villages, a long-difference IV estimator, and a structural decomposition of land conversion pathways. We find that each additional kilometer of road reduces cropland by 4.781 hectares and increases construction land by 5.371 hectares, with 98.8% of cropland outflow flowing to construction land. The 2010 intensification of the cropland red line reduced the per-kilometer cropland effect by 27% and the construction land effect by 32%, but the conversion mechanism persists, especially near county seats. Policy effectiveness is spatially heterogeneous: the red line curbed conversion mainly in remote villages, while peri-urban areas maintain high conversion rates. These findings imply that infrastructure evaluation must account for land use costs, and that command-and-control regulation needs price-based complements in spatially differentiated land markets. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404757 |