nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2025–09–29
thirteen papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam


  1. Can the Installation of Photovoltaics Motivate Households to Adopt Battery Electric Cars? By Dimitra Spyropoulou; Milan Scasny
  2. Congestion Pricing, Carpooling, and Commuter Welfare By Michael Ostrovsky; Michael Schwarz
  3. Promoting healthy and safe driving: Physiological and psychological evaluation of truck drivers for individualized shift and route planning. By Keil, M.; Hagemann, V.; Glock, C.H.
  4. When smart charging meets smart users: How price-sensitive plug-in behavior reshapes EV integration By Brockmann, Fabian; Kohn, Rieke S.; Marinelli, Mattia
  5. Clean Rides, Healthy Lives: The Impact of Electric Vehicle Adoption on Air Quality and Infant Health By Cavit Baran; Janet Currie; Bahadir Dursun; Erdal Tekin
  6. Local Resistance to International High-Speed Rail Projects – Lessons for a European Silk Road: A Comparison between Resistance to the Brenner Base Tunnel Project in Germany and Austria By Klara Blomberg; Mario Holzner; Manon Verougstraete
  7. Bilevel subsidy-enabled mobility hub network design with perturbed utility coalitional choice-based assignment By Hai Yang; Joseph Y. J. Chow
  8. On the Road to Better Life? Rural Road and Economic Development in Albania By Kumar Gautam, Santosh; Ilirjani, Ermal; Ukil, Patralekha
  9. Is Italy on Track? A Data-Driven Forecast for Road Transport Decarbonisation by 2030 By Bonacina, Monica
  10. Vulmob, a multidimensional vulnerability indicator to assess the impact of policies limiting car use - application to the Grenoble LEZ By Lola Blandin; Hélène Bouscasse; Sandrine Mathy
  11. Enhancing Disaster Evacuation Planning with Cognitive Agent-Based Models and Co-Creation By Hossein Moradi; Rouba Iskandar; Sebastian Rodriguez; Dhirendra Singh; Julie Dugdale; Dimitrios Tzempelikos; Athanasios Sfetsos; Evangelia Bakogianni; Evrydiki Pavlidi; Josué Díaz; Margalida Ribas; Alexandre Moragues; Joan Estrany
  12. Measuring the degree of aviation liberalisation: Should we trust bilateral agreements? By Frédéric Dobruszkes
  13. Human or Robot? Evidence from Last-Mile Delivery Service By Baorui Li; Xincheng Ma; Brian Rongqing Han; Daizhong Tang; Lei Fu

  1. By: Dimitra Spyropoulou (Charles University Environment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Milan Scasny (Charles University Environment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This study investigates consumer preferences for passenger battery electric vehicles and their joint adoption with a residential solar photovoltaic system in Greece, where electric vehicle uptake remains low. Using discrete choice experiments, we analyse the preferences of 891 potential car buyers for conventional, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles, comparing scenarios where a battery electric vehicle is offered alone or as a bundle with subsidised home solar photovoltaics. Results indicate that offering a technology bundle shifts consumer preferences, with the most notable effect being a decrease in the likelihood of choosing conventional vehicles. The willingness to pay for the bundle also exceeds that for battery electric vehicles, suggesting that installing PV systems adds value to BEVs. Key factors influencing adoption include purchase price, operating costs, wallbox subsidies, and normal charging time, while driving range and fast-mode charging do not seem to significantly affect consumer preferences. However, the analysis reveals substantial unobserved preference heterogeneity across all attributes. Robustness checks support the validity of our results. These findings suggest that integrated green technology bundles can accelerate low-carbon transport adoption, supporting the EU decarbonisation targets through complementary renewable energy and electromobility solutions.
    Keywords: Battery Electric Vehicles; Photovoltaics; Technology bundle; Consumer choices; Discrete Choice Experiments; Willingness to Pay
    JEL: C15 D12 D90 Q42 Q55
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_16
  2. By: Michael Ostrovsky; Michael Schwarz
    Abstract: Building on the canonical "bottleneck" model of Vickrey (1969), we show that carpooling and road pricing are highly complementary in addressing traffic congestion: they can be much more effective jointly than each one separately, and can improve commuter welfare without having to rely on the redistribution of government revenue. By contrast, technological advances that make time in traffic more comfortable or productive (e.g., self-driving cars), implemented without additional economic incentives, may result in zero improvement in social welfare.
    JEL: D47 D62 H23 L98 Q58 R41 R48
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34261
  3. By: Keil, M.; Hagemann, V.; Glock, C.H.
    Date: 2025–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:154019
  4. By: Brockmann, Fabian (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Kohn, Rieke S. (Dept. of Accounting, Auditing and Law, Norwegian School of Economics); Marinelli, Mattia (Dept. of Wind and Energy Systems, DTU Technical University of Denmark)
    Abstract: The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) presents both opportunities and challenges for energy systems. While smart charging algorithms have been widely studied to optimize EV charging schedules, the role of EV users' plug-in behavior that precedes any smart charging remains largely unexplored. This study addresses this critical gap by approximating the human plug-in decision-making process through an agent-based simulation model, capturing how EV users adjust their plug-in behavior in response to status of charge and dynamic electricity prices. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of plug-in behavior on EV users' charging cost, battery lifetime, and EV fleet peak power demand. Our numerical analysis reveals that a price-sensitive plug-in behavior can substantially decrease charging cost and generally extend battery lifetime, though some users may experience shorter battery lifespans due to deeper discharge cycles. Moreover, this behavior also leads to synchronized charging patterns, increasing peak power demand and potentially straining grid infrastructure. These findings reveal the trade-off between user benefits and grid operation drawbacks, underscoring the need for holistic approaches in the assessment of EV user behavior. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of user engagement in smart charging technologies.
    Keywords: EV; Behavior; Grid; Battery; Cost; Smart Charging
    JEL: Q00 Q40
    Date: 2025–09–22
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2025_024
  5. By: Cavit Baran; Janet Currie; Bahadir Dursun; Erdal Tekin
    Abstract: This paper provides the first nationwide evidence on how electric vehicle (EV) adoption has improved both air quality and child health. We assemble a rich dataset from 2010–2021 that links county-level EV registrations to measures of air pollution, birth outcomes, and emergency department visits. The endogeneity of EV adoption is addressed using two complementary strategies: Two-way fixed effects and instrumental variables (IV). The IV exploits the staggered rollout of Alternative Fuel Corridors as a source of exogenous variation in charging infrastructure that affected EV adoption. The estimates show that greater EV penetration significantly reduces nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a key pollutant linked to vehicular emissions. These improvements in air quality yield significant health benefits, including reductions in very low birth weight and very premature births, as well as fewer asthma-related emergency department visits among children ages 0 to 5. This is true even when potentially offsetting increases in pollution from the electricity generation needed to power EVs are accounted for. The benefits are higher in the high-pollution counties with Alternative Fuel Corridors, where baseline exposures are greatest. The resulting reductions in very low birth weight births alone could generate annual benefits of $1.2 to $4.0 billion. These findings underscore the dual environmental and public health benefits of EV adoption.
    JEL: I14 I18 Q53 R38
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34278
  6. By: Klara Blomberg; Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Manon Verougstraete
    Abstract: This report investigates the issue of local actors resisting the implementation of high-speed rail (HSR) routes through the example of reactions to the Brenner Base project in Germany and Austria. In order to understand the causes of significant resistance, the report contrasts reactions to the Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT) in Germany, where resistance and consequent delays are substantial, with reactions to the BBT in Austria, where resistance and delays are more limited. After tracing the evolution of local resistance in both countries, we confirm an important contrast between resistance in Germany and Austria. Our interviews with six Deutsche Bahn (DB) employees and an analysis of local news sources enable us to identify the politicisation of the project by local politicians as a primary cause of greater resistance in Germany. Our interviewees also pointed out the role of policy changes in tackling the problem of local resistance. It was highlighted that changes such as the 2017 Requirements Plan Implementation Agreement – which increased national authority over this kind of large-scale infrastructure project – may help to simplify future projects and reduce resistance to them. Learning lessons from failures in constructing large cross-border infrastructure is instrumental for the planning of bold, trans-European rail projects, as envisaged in the European Silk Road initiative. Among these lessons is the importance of anticipating and integrating localised dynamics and concerns into the planning process. Equally crucial is ensuring the early and balanced involvement of all key countries, as this fosters shared ownership and helps to reduce asymmetries in stakeholder engagement.
    Keywords: European Silk Road, high-speed rail, railway transport, infrastructure planning
    JEL: H54 L92 O18 R41 R42
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:98
  7. By: Hai Yang; Joseph Y. J. Chow
    Abstract: Urban mobility is undergoing rapid transformation with the emergence of new services. Mobility hubs (MHs) have been proposed as physical-digital convergence points, offering a range of public and private mobility options in close proximity. By supporting Mobility-as-a-Service, these hubs can serve as focal points where travel decisions intersect with operator strategies. We develop a bilevel MH platform design model that treats MHs as control levers. The upper level (platform) maximizes revenue or flow by setting subsidies to incentivize last-mile operators; the lower level captures joint traveler-operator decisions with a link-based Perturbed Utility Route Choice (PURC) assignment, yielding a strictly convex quadratic program. We reformulate the bilevel problem to a single-level program via the KKT conditions of the lower level and solve it with a gap-penalty method and an iterative warm-start scheme that exploits the computationally cheap lower-level problem. Numerical experiments on a toy network and a Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) case (244 nodes, 469 links, 78 ODs) show that the method attains sub-1% optimality gaps in minutes. In the base LIRR case, the model allows policymakers to quantify the social surplus value of a MH, or the value of enabling subsidy or regulating the microtransit operator's pricing. Comparing link-based subsidies to hub-based subsidies, the latter is computationally more expensive but offers an easier mechanism for comparison and control.
    Date: 2025–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10465
  8. By: Kumar Gautam, Santosh (University of Notre Dame); Ilirjani, Ermal (Albanian Development Fund); Ukil, Patralekha (San Jose State University)
    Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of investment in rural roads on household welfare in Albania. Using a difference-in-differences method, we find that treated households experienced a 35-percentage point increase in the quality of roads relative to control households and reduced travel times to the nearest motorable roads. The study also demonstrates that the price and value of residential and farmland increased in the treated communities. Household heads in treated communities were less likely to be unemployed, and there was a higher incidence of self-employment in treated households, which seems to suggest a pattern of households shifting away from paid employment to self-employment in response to improved economic opportunities due to improved connectivity. The study does not find a significant effect on household income, but finds an increase in consumption expenditure. In general, these findings indicate that investments in rural roads have had positive impacts on the welfare of the family in Albania.
    Keywords: Food expenditure, Income, Rural roads, Albania
    JEL: O18
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18116
  9. By: Bonacina, Monica
    Abstract: Tokong, Romolo Consigna
    Keywords: Climate Change, Sustainability
    Date: 2025–09–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:369377
  10. By: Lola Blandin; Hélène Bouscasse; Sandrine Mathy
    Abstract: Social (in)justice is an argument often put forward to explain the successive setbacks to the roll-out of low-emission zones (LEZs) in France. However, until now, this is not based on any rigorous assessment. We are developing a methodology for assessing the impact of a LEZ on mobility vulnerabilities based on a multidimensional vulnerability indicator (VulMob). We apply this methodology to the Grenoble region. Firstly, we show that the number of households without a solution is extremely low and that there are solutions to help these households specifically, without calling the whole policy into question. Moreover, modal shift appears to be a high-potential adaptation solution for all households, which could improve the environmental and health performance of the LEZs. It should be noted, however, that highly vulnerable households are more affected and more likely to remain without a solution other than buying a car that complies with the LEZ. This work can guide the operational implementation of the LEZs and the definition of support policies, taking into account vulnerability profiles and the specific characteristics of the area.
    Keywords: Low Emission Zones, Mobility, Modal Shift, Public Policy Evaluation, Vulnerabilities.
    JEL: Q52 Q58 R48
    Date: 2025–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2025-05
  11. By: Hossein Moradi (RMIT Europe - Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology - Europe); Rouba Iskandar (LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Sebastian Rodriguez (RMIT University - Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University); Dhirendra Singh (CSIRO Data61 [Sydney] - CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]); Julie Dugdale (Institut Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées de Grenoble (IMAG), LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Dimitrios Tzempelikos; Athanasios Sfetsos (NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"); Evangelia Bakogianni (NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"); Evrydiki Pavlidi (NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"); Josué Díaz; Margalida Ribas (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands); Alexandre Moragues (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands); Joan Estrany (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands)
    Abstract: Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in disaster evacuation simulation to capture system level dynamics. While ABMs are often combined with human behavior models (HBMs), few approaches integrate these with infrastructure and demographic data that are carefully modeled using local knowledge, along with hazard-specific impacts and policy settings. Even fewer embed this integration within a co-creation loop that involves local stakeholders throughout the entire development lifecycle, from conception and design to implementation, testing, and beyond. This paper introduces the methodology that we developed to address this gap by combining a structured cocreation process with technical simulation development. The co-creation process engages local stakeholders, planners, and experts to iteratively shape evacuation scenarios, define assumptions, and validate outcomes, ensuring the model aligns with local realities. These inputs are translated into a multi-dimensional simulation framework built in MATSim, integrating network and infrastructure models, hazard effects, population, and behavior modeling enhanced through Belief-Desire-Intention cognitive architectures. We applied this methodology in different case study areas, demonstrating its capacity to simulate heterogeneous evacuation dynamics and provide diverse performance metrics. Finally, we explore how this methodology can be applied in other hazards, geographic regions, and evacuation scenarios, offering pathways for broader application and future development.
    Keywords: Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Evacuation Simulation, Co-creation Processes, Human Behavior Models, Agent-Based Models
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05267465
  12. By: Frédéric Dobruszkes
    Abstract: This paper revisits the assessment of aviation regulatory regimes through air liberalisation indices (ALIs). Most studies are based on the clauses of bilateral air service agreements (BASAs) that are coded and converted into scores to form an ALI. However, BASAs are commonly amended by memoranda of understanding or other kinds of arrangements that are usually not made publicly available. This paper investigates the gap in ALI values between the original BASAs and further amendments, considering a large range of BASAs signed by Belgium and Brazil with third countries. It is found that the degree of aviation liberalisation of amended BASAs is often significantly higher than the original BASAs’ clauses (Belgium: +86% on average; Brazil: +146%). This confirms that ALIs based on the original BASAs can be significantly biased and underestimate the actual degree of aviation liberalisation. This calls for making all agreements and their subsequent amendments publicly available. We argue this should be done under the auspices of the ICAO.
    Date: 2025–09–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/394346
  13. By: Baorui Li; Xincheng Ma; Brian Rongqing Han; Daizhong Tang; Lei Fu
    Abstract: As platforms increasingly deploy robots alongside human labor in last-mile logistics, little is known about how contextual features like product attributes, environmental conditions, and psychological mechanisms shape consumer preference in real-world settings. To address this gap, this paper conducts an empirical study on consumer choice between human versus robot service, analyzing 241, 517 package-level choices from Alibaba's last-mile delivery stations. We identify how product privacy sensitivity, product value, and environmental complexity affect consumer preference. Our findings reveal that consumers are significantly more likely to choose robot delivery for privacy-sensitive packages (11.49%) and high-value products (0.97% per 1% increase in value), but prefer human couriers under adverse weather conditions (1.63%). These patterns are robust to alternative specifications and controls. These results also underscore that delivery choices are shaped not only by functional considerations but also by psychological concerns, highlighting the need for context-aware service design that aligns strategies with consumer perceptions.
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.11562

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