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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Roth, Jakob; Schwab, Laura; Hintermann, Beat |
| Abstract: | The European travel sector is experiencing a transformation driven by increased climate awareness and policy measures aimed at reducing external costs such as emissions. This study examines how Swiss travelers respond to these developments, using a stated preference experiment including the modes train, night train, car, and airplane. Employing nested logit models, we find a significant willingness-to-pay for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) of CHF 94 per ton of CO2e. Based on the estimated coefficients, we evaluate the impacts of four policy scenarios: an aviation tax (CHF 30), a night train subsidy (CHF 20), a SAF blending quota, and a market outlook for 2030. These scenarios are benchmarked against the first-best Pigovian tax on transport externalities. Assessing demand shifts, consumer surplus, and external costs, we find that subsidizing night train prices, the aviation tax, and the 2030 scenario increase welfare, whereas a 6% SAF mandate reduces it. |
| JEL: | D6 R4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/08 |
| By: | Volker, Jamey |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewedacademic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0k26x2jw |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline PhD; Zhang, Yunwan; Harold, Brian S.; Drake, Christina PhD |
| Abstract: | People with low incomes often face difficulties traveling because of a dearth of affordable and reliable transportation modes, and this has profound quality-of-life implications. In this longitudinal partial randomized controlled trial of universal basic mobility wallets, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro) provided nearly 1, 000 residents with prepaid debit cards loaded with $150 in transportation funds per month for 12 months beginning in May 2023. These could be used to pay for local and regional transit, carsharing, car rentals, ridehailing, bicycle/scooter sharing, and merchandise purchased at local bicycle shops. Analysis of surveys before and during the pilot showed a significant increase in transportation security (p |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Mobility, Travel behavior, Accessibility, Shared mobility, Pilot studies, Surveys, Transportation Equity |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7rc1x58z |
| By: | Yassine, Ziad; Shaheen, Susan A. |
| Abstract: | The transition toward electric vehicles (EVs) represents a pivotal shift in transportation technology, promising significant environmental benefits through reduced greenhouse gas emissions and decreased dependence on fossil fuels. However, the integration of EVs presents unique challenges and opportunities within the context of social equity. EVs have emerged as a key technology in the evolution of transportation, with their history tracing back to the late ninteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7pb0s2db |
| By: | Sanguinetti, Angela PhD; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Ferguson, Beth PhD; D'Agostino, Mollie |
| Abstract: | Micromobility—including shared, loaned, and leased bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters—holds significant promise in supporting more sustainable travel. It supports first- and last-mile connections to public transit and reduces vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and associated emissions. However, the micromobility sector faces persistent challenges, and the path forward to delivering sustainable and equitable services remains unclear.To help chart that path, our research team conducted a Delphi study via two online surveys of micromobility stakeholders (N=45). Based on the findings, this brief presents a research roadmap that reflects the priorities of government, industry, and advocacy groups. It highlights where stakeholder perspectives align and where they diverge—laying the foundation for more targeted and collaborative research, policy, and practice. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8rc253cs |
| By: | Samuel Darwisman |
| Abstract: | The theoretical landscape of transportation cost planning is shifting from deterministic linear models to dynamic, data-driven optimization. As supply chains face volatility, static 20th-century cost assumptions prove increasingly inadequate. Despite rapid technological advancements, a unified framework linking economic production theory with the operational realities of autonomous, sustainable logistics remains absent. Existing models fail to address non-linear stepwise costs and real-time stochastic variables introduced by market dynamics. This study reconstructs transportation cost planning theory by synthesizing Grand, Middle-Range, and Applied theories. It aims to integrate stepwise cost functions, AI-driven decision-making, and environmental externalities into a cohesive planning model. A systematic theoretical synthesis was conducted using 28 high-impact papers published primarily between 2018 and 2025, employing multi-layered analysis to reconstruct cost drivers. The study identifies three critical shifts: the transition from linear to stepwise fixed costs, the necessity of AI-driven dynamic pricing for revenue optimization, and the role of Autonomous Electric Vehicles (AEVs) in minimizing long-term marginal costs. A "Dynamic-Sustainable Cost Planning Theory" is proposed, arguing that cost efficiency now depends on algorithmic prediction and autonomous fleet utilization rather than simple distance minimization. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.10494 |
| By: | Grzegorz Jamr\'oz; Rafa{\l} Kucharski; David Watling |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics and equilibria of a new kind of routing games, where players - drivers of future autonomous vehicles - may switch between individual (HDV) and collective (CAV) routing. In individual routing, just like today, drivers select routes minimizing expected travel costs, whereas in collective routing an operator centrally assigns vehicles to routes. The utility is then the average experienced travel time discounted with individually perceived attractiveness of automated driving. The market share maximising strategy amounts to offering utility greater than for individual routing to as many drivers as possible. Our theoretical contribution consists in developing a rigorous mathematical framework of individualized collective routing and studying algorithms which fleets of CAVs may use for their market-share optimization. We also define bi-level CAV - HDV equilibria and derive conditions which link the potential marketing behaviour of CAVs to the behavioural profile of the human population. Practically, we find that the fleet operator may often be able to equilibrate at full market share by simply mimicking the choices HDVs would make. In more realistic heterogenous human population settings, however, we discover that the market-share maximizing fleet controller should use highly variable mixed strategies as a means to attract or retain customers. The reason is that in mixed routing the powerful group player can control which vehicles are routed via congested and uncongested alternatives. The congestion pattern generated by CAVs is, however, not known to HDVs before departure and so HDVs cannot select faster routes and face huge uncertainty whichever alternative they choose. Consequently, mixed market-share maximising fleet strategies resulting in unpredictable day-to-day driving conditions may, alarmingly, become pervasive in our future cities. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.03524 |
| By: | Jurgena Myftiu (Department of Economics, University of Bergamo); Daniele Crotti (Department of Human Sciences and of the Innovation for the Territory, University of Insubria); Elena Maggi (Department of Economics, University of Insubria) |
| Abstract: | Urban cycling tourism represents a cornerstone of sustainable mobility strategies aimed at reducing motorised travel and improving environmental and social well-being in cities. However, despite the crucial role of safety in encouraging cycling uptake, research has seldom examined how urban bike tourists adjust their behaviour to mitigate risk and cope with perceived road unsafety. Likewise, the influence of information on cycling accidents and risk perception on the intention to engage in urban cycling tourism remains largely overlooked in the literature. This study advances knowledge in this field by analysing data from an Italian online survey of city cyclists, adopting the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and a two-step empirical approach. First, an ordered probit model investigates how socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics shape the use of information sources and perceptions of road safety among cyclists. Second, after validating PMT constructs and identifying latent dimensions through confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, a structural equation model estimates the effects of information sources on health-protective intentions and behaviours relevant for sustainable cycling mobility. Results show that information on risks exerts both direct and indirect effects, mediated by PMT constructs, on the intention to avoid urban bike tourism. The findings offer insights for policy interventions aimed at enhancing perceived and actual safety, thereby supporting a modal shift toward more sustainable urban travel choices. |
| Keywords: | Bike tourism; Accident risks; Sustainable mobility; SEM model; Factor analysis |
| JEL: | Z3 R41 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.24 |
| By: | Daigo Shiraishi (University of Tokyo); Ryuichi Shibasaki (University of Tokyo); Wenru Zhang (University of Tokyo); Yesim Elhan-Kayalar (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines port terminal efficiency through an empirical analysis of the turnaround times of vessels, trucks, and containers entering and leaving selected Japanese container terminals. Using a comprehensive dataset combining terminal operator records, vessel movement data, and liner service data, we analyze patterns in vessel berthing, truck arrival, truck turnaround, container round trip, and container dwell times across multiple ports. Our findings reveal distinct temporal patterns in terminal operations—with significant variations between import and export containers—and demonstrate that vessel calls, container types, and time of day significantly influence operational efficiency. Regression analyses indicate that turnaround times are primarily affected by terminal controlled factors. Based on these findings, we propose policy recommendations for dynamic scheduling systems, operational standardization, and infrastructure optimization. Our results contribute to the growing literature on port digitalization and provide evidence-based guidance for terminal operators and policymakers seeking to enhance port efficiency through digital integration. |
| Keywords: | port efficiency;digital integration;container terminals;turnaround time;truck appointment systems;terminal operations |
| JEL: | R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021807 |
| By: | Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan A. |
| Abstract: | Advanced air mobility, also known as AAM, is a broad concept focusing on emerging aviation markets and use cases for on-demand aviation in urban, suburban, and rural communities (Cohen et al., 2024). AAM includes local use cases of about an 80 km radius in rural or urban areas and intraregional use cases of up to approximately 500 km. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9v88s6pr |
| By: | Shilong Han |
| Abstract: | This study examines how China's high-speed rail (HSR) expansion affects analyst earnings forecast errors from an economic information friction perspective. Using firm-year panel data from 2008-2019, a period that covers HSR's early introduction and rapid nationwide rollout, the findings show that analysts' relative earnings forecast errors (RFE) decline significantly only after firms' cities become connected by high-speed rail. The placebo test, which artificially shifts HSR connectivity 3 years earlier than the actual opening year, yields an insignificant DID coefficient, rejecting the possibility that forecast errors were improving before the infrastructure shock. This supports the conclusion that forecast error reduction is linked to real geographic accessibility improvements rather than coincidence, pre-existing trends, or analyst anticipation. Economically, the study highlights that HSR reduces analysts' costs of gathering private, incremental information, particularly soft information obtained via plant or management visits. The rail network does not directly alter firms' internal capital allocation or earnings generation paths, but it lowers spatial barriers to information collection, enabling analysts to update EPS expectations under reduced travel friction. This work provides intuitive evidence that geography and mobility improvements contribute to forecasting accuracy in China's emerging, decentralized capital market corridors, and it encourages future research to consider transport accessibility as an exogenous information cost shock rather than an internal firm-capital shock. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.03709 |
| By: | Scholl, Lynn; Oviedo, Daniel; Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando; Casas-Cortes, Camila; Chea, Llando; Saboin, José Luis |
| Abstract: | This study explores the multiple enablers and barriers to school transportation and their broader social implications in Nassau, the capital of The Bahamas. We examine the complex interplay between physical, functional, and social factors shaping childrens, parents ', and caregivers daily access to school. A central revelation is the profoundly gendered nature of school transportation responsibilities in Nassau, with women constituting 83% of our sample who organize or undertake these daily journeys. Drawing on semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and a survey of 477 caregivers across Nassau, we adopt a mixed-methods approach combining descriptive statistics, factor analysis, and cluster modelling. We identify four distinct groups based on their perceptions of traffic safety, harassment risks, and climate-related barriers, including one cluster for whom flooding and other extreme weather concerns are central drivers of school transportation challenges. Our findings reveal that inadequate infrastructure, minimal enforcement of school zone traffic laws, and the perceived threat of harassment or violence pose significant barriers to childrens safe and enjoyable access to education. At the same time, extended family support and targeted school-zone measures emerge as notable enablers, alleviating some of the burdens placed on caregivers. Building on these insights, we offer evidence-based recommendations for policy and practice, underscoring the need for cross-sector collaboration to enhance infrastructure, strengthen traffic law enforcement, and address social vulnerabilities. By highlighting cluster-specific concerns-from gender-based violence to climate impacts-this paper provides a nuanced understanding of how school transportation challenges intersect with gender norms and broader societal issues, offering practical pathways toward more inclusive and resilient mobility systems for children and their caregivers. The paper also outlines future research directions around the consequences of these barriers and enablers for caregivers time use, labor participation and well-being. |
| JEL: | I23 I28 R40 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14422 |
| By: | Myftiu, Jurgena; Crotti, Daniele; Maggi, Elena |
| Abstract: | Urban cycling tourism represents a cornerstone of sustainable mobility strategies aimed at reducing motorised travel and improving environmental and social well-being in cities. However, despite the crucial role of safety in encouraging cycling uptake, research has seldom examined how urban bike tourists adjust their behaviour to mitigate risk and cope with perceived road unsafety. Likewise, the influence of information on cycling accidents and risk perception on the intention to engage in urban cycling tourism remains largely overlooked in the literature. This study advances knowledge in this field by analysing data from an Italian online survey of city cyclists, adopting the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and a two-step empirical approach. First, an ordered probit model investigates how socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics shape the use of information sources and perceptions of road safety among cyclists. Second, after validating PMT constructs and identifying latent dimensions through confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, a structural equation model estimates the effects of information sources on health-protective intentions and behaviours relevant for sustainable cycling mobility. Results show that information on risks exerts both direct and indirect effects, mediated by PMT constructs, on the intention to avoid urban bike tourism. The findings offer insights for policy interventions aimed at enhancing perceived and actual safety, thereby supporting a modal shift toward more sustainable urban travel choices. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:376265 |
| By: | Alessandro V. M. Oliveira; Moises D. Vassallo |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the layout and seat density in aircraft cabins influence the pricing of airline tickets on domestic flights. The analysis is based on microdata from boarding passes linked to face-to-face interviews with passengers, allowing us to relate the price paid to the location on the aircraft seat map, as well as market characteristics and flight operations. Econometric models were estimated using the Post-Double-Selection LASSO (PDS-LASSO) procedure in order to select numerous controls for unobservable factors linked to commercial and operational aspects, thus enabling better identification of the effect of variables such as advance purchase, reason for travel, fuel price, market structure, and load factor, among others. The results suggest that a higher density of seat rows is associated with lower prices, reflecting economies of scale with the increase in aircraft size and gains in operational efficiency. An unexpected result was also obtained: in situations where there was no seat selection fee, passengers with more expensive tickets were often allocated middle seats due to purchasing at short notice, when the side alternatives were no longer available. This behavior helps explain the economic logic behind one of the main ancillary revenues of airlines. In addition to quantitative analysis, the study incorporates an exploratory approach to innovative cabin concepts and their possible effects on density and comfort on board. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.00092 |
| By: | Pamina Koenig (Paris School of Economics); Jiancong Liu (Paris School of Economics); Sandra Poncet (Paris School of Economics); Dan Xie (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first empirical evidence linking digital trade facilitation reforms to changes in port operations. Leveraging the staggered rollout of Single Window reforms in the People’s Republic of China (2014–2016), which streamlined customs clearance, we combine Automatic Identification System data on container ship movements with event study methods to identify causal effects. While effects on carried tonnage are positive but statistically insignificant, decomposition analysis reveals that the Single Window operates through a specific channel, without changing vessel loading conditions, ship size, and port processing times. To assess port responses, we analyze heterogeneity across vessel and terminal characteristics. Impacts are concentrated among smaller vessels and less congested terminals, with no effect on larger vessels and capacity-constrained facilities. These findings demonstrate that administrative efficiency improvements boost maritime activity through extensive rather than intensive margins, with ports accommodating increased trade demand primarily through higher vessel frequency. |
| Keywords: | trade facilitation;digital technology;container shipping;People’s Republic of China ports |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 R40 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021808 |
| By: | Hong Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Over the last three decades, global airlines have joined hands in cooperative efforts that have transformed the industry. Code sharing opened the door to the formation of broader alliances; these groups eventually sought and obtained antitrust immunity (ATI) to lawfully coordinate pricing and schedules on international routes. Today, the apotheosis of industrial collaboration is represented by an especially integrated form of cooperation known as the profit‑sharing, metal‑neutral joint venture (JV).<p> Typically, national competition authorities review the legality of these schemes on a case-by-case basis. JVs allow partners to coordinate fares, schedules, and capacity across routes in a manner that, in some markets, approximates the competitive consequences of a merger, while also promising greater efficiencies in terms of network alignment.<p> Theoretically, the net pro- or anti-competitive effect of any given JV is ambiguous. On the one hand, coordination can reduce costs and resolve double marginalization on connecting itineraries: when two carriers price sequential segments without coordination, each imposes a markup on the through itinerary; a JV internalizes this externality and can lower end‑to‑end fares.<p> On the other hand, joint control over schedules and capacity on overlapping routes can soften competition and allow for higher prices, particularly on gateway‑to‑gateway corridors with concentrated supply. The empirical literature reflects this ambiguity, with studies reporting both fare decreases on connecting flows and fare increases on nonstop overlaps. A key reason for the mixed evidence is methodological: most studies take the JV as a single binary treatment, implicitly averaging over distinct mechanisms that work in opposite directions. This paper opens the black box by separating shared marketing from shared operations at the itinerary level and estimating their separate effects on fares.<p> Using a difference‑in‑differences (DiD) design on transatlantic two‑segment connecting itineraries observed before (2004 to 2006) and after (2014 to 2016) the wave of JV approvals that occurred from 2008 to 2010, we find that each additional JV‑marketing segment is associated with a fare reduction from roughly 8.4 to 10.6 percent, whereas each additional JV‑operating segment is associated with a fare increase from 4.5 to 8.1 percent. In a typical case, where one segment is both marketed and operated within a JV, the implied net effect is a decrease of three to four percent. These mechanism‑specific results explain why average JV effects vary across contexts and provide a more robust foundation for antitrust scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | joint ventures; airline industry; antitrust immunity; ATI; competition policy; monopoly policy; collusion; price collusion; fair competition; South Korea |
| JEL: | D43 D62 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021805 |
| By: | Anna Ignatenko; Pierre Cariou; Haiying Jia; Francois-Charles Wolff |
| Abstract: | We separate the effects of market power and capacity constraints in transportation. A simple model shows imperfect competition—not capacity constraints—generates differential freight price changes across buyers following a demand shock. Consistent with this, difference-in-differences estimates reveal, after COVID-19 demand surge, freight forwarders faced a 30 pp larger increase in base freight rates than direct shippers despite identical contract terms. This reflects rising carrier markups that disproportionately burden smaller firms and explain at least 35% of freight price growth and 16% of U.S. import price inflation. Thus, competition in transportation is crucial for supplychain resilience and macroeconomic stability |
| Keywords: | market power, transportation, price discrimination, trade costs, inflation, intermediaries |
| JEL: | F1 L2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12293 |
| By: | Davide Del Prete (the University of Naples Parthenope); Aminur Rahman (Asian Development Bank); Edoardo Tolva (University of Lisbon ISEG) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how international buyers’ market power and transport mode shape the pass-through of exchange rate shocks to export prices. Using transaction level customs data from the Bangladeshi garment sector, we first document substantial buyer market power and the concentration of export activity in key trade hubs that shape transport decisions. We then show that large buyers leverage both their market power and their reliance on air freight to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Taken together, our findings highlight how buyer characteristics shape exporters’ adjustment to external shocks, with broader implications for regional economic resilience. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh;exchange rate;global value chain;market power;transport mode |
| JEL: | D22 D43 E31 F10 L14 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021792 |