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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Raab, Moritz; Kleinebrahm, Max; Vogl, Jonathan; Signer, Tim; Braun, Jannik; Fichtner, Wolf |
| Abstract: | The electrification of private vehicles is a central element of decarbonizing transport and energy systems. Accurately anticipating when and where electric vehicles will be adopted is critical for charging infrastructure planning, distribution grid planning, and energy system operation, yet most diffusion models represent adoption at aggregated spatial scales. Here we introduce an open, high-resolution technology diffusion framework that links household-level electric vehicle adoption with GPS-exact residential locations. The framework combines a synthetic population, household-to-building matching, car ownership modeling, and a national Bass diffusion trajectory to translate aggregate electric vehicle growth into localized adoption pathways. We apply the framework to Germany from 2025 to 2050 and validate its main components against Census marginals, building assignments, and registered vehicle counts, demonstrating its suitability for spatially explicit EV diffusion analysis. The results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in electric vehicle diffusion across regions, municipalities, grid cells, and buildings. Differences in household income and the share of single-family houses shape local adoption trajectories, leading to higher adoption in West Germany than in East Germany and slightly higher adoption in rural than urban municipalities in aggregate. The framework provides an open and transferable basis for spatially explicit modeling of household technology adoption. Future research can build on these findings by applying the framework to other technologies or by linking GPS-exact electric vehicle diffusion to charging demand, system operation, and infrastructure planning. |
| Keywords: | Technology diffusion, Electric vehicle adoption, Synthetic population, Spatially explicit modeling, Household-level adoption, Building-level modeling |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:343996 |
| By: | Stepan Kucera (Department of Finance and Accounting, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of improvements in road transport infrastructure on the intensity of inter-municipal work commuting in the Czech Republic over the period 2011–2021. The study uses linked census data on commuting flows between more than 79, 000 origin-destination municipality pairs, together with network-based estimates of travel times derived from OpenStreetMap. Using the Open-Source Routing Machine (OSRM), we estimate first-difference OLS models that relate changes in normalised commuting intensity to absolute changes in road travel time, while controlling for pre-existing commuting linkages between municipalities and a set of controls variables. We find that a one-minute reduction in travel time raises car-based commuting intensity by approximately 0.12 to 0.17 car commuters per 1, 000 economically active residents. This positive effect remains consistent across both intra-regional and intra-district spatial specifications. The analysis of heterogenous effects reveals a pronounced gender asymmetry. The travel time effect is negative, sizeable, and statistically significant for female commuters in all specifications, while it is statistically indistinguishable from zero for male commuters. For women, shorter travel time thus acts as a catalyst for work commuting across all model specifications. By contrast, for male commuters, the estimated effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero in the pooled national sample, while in alternative specifications the effect remains very weak. Education-stratified results indicate that the aggregate effect is driven primarily by workers with secondary education, whereas workers with either basic or tertiary education do not appear to respond to infrastructure improvements, or more specifically to reductions in commuting time. Stratification by sector of employment shows statistically significant results particularly in the primary and secondary sectors. While shorter commuting times in agriculture and manufacturing are associated with an increased intensity of work commuting, the results for the services sector are less clear-cut and vary across model specifications. Overall, the findings suggest that the labour market returns to road infrastructure investment are highly specific. Reductions in travel time increase car-based commuting, but the magnitude of the effect is modest. Both the strength and direction of the effect depend on the population group considered and on the broader economic-geographical context. Road infrastructure may therefore operate as a potential mechanism for improving labour market access among selected sociodemographic groups, while primarily reinforcing existing commuting corridors rather than generating entirely new ones. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure; commuting; labour mobility; spatial mismatch; gender; Czech Republic |
| JEL: | R41 R12 J61 H54 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:114_2026 |
| By: | Ling, Faith |
| Abstract: | As autonomous vehicles (AVs) become more prevalent on roads in the United States, relevant information on their safety, especially when interacting with vulnerable road users (VRUs) like bicyclists and pedestrians is crucial. To understand the current state of AVs, this brief reviews VRU perceptions and interactions with AVs, relevant crash data on AVs, the use of AVs as a ride-hailing service, and AV technology and design. This brief examines technology, infrastructure, and data trends that can help inform communities on how to safely walk and bike amongst AVs. Knowledge of these topics may also help inform the public about AV safety, help AV manufacturers address technical concerns, and aid policymakers in developing legislation. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Autonomous vehicles, vulnerable road users, AV safety |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4gr743v5 |
| By: | Klühspies, Johannes; Blow, Laurence E. |
| Abstract: | Maglev technology offers significant advantages for urban passenger transportation, including reduced noise pollution and zero particulate emissions, making it particularly valuable in densely populated areas. However, challenges such as high capital costs remain substantial. Medium-speed maglev systems hold the greatest potential in applications like urban ring lines, airport links, and routes through topographically challenging areas. For short-distance urban transport, traditional systems like trams and buses are still more practical and cost-effective. A key concern is the aesthetic design of maglev guideways, as their current brute, concrete appearance makes them unappealing for broader market adoption. While cost, design, and infrastructure challenges currently limit the widespread use of urban maglev, its potential to enhance urban mobility remains significant. Keywords: Disruption; Barriers to Acceptance; Infrastructure Design; Environment, Urban Planning, Mobility Challenges, Cost-Benefit. |
| Abstract: | Die Magnetschwebetechnologie bietet erhebliche Vorteile für den städtischen Personenverkehr, darunter eine geringere Lärmbelastung und das Fehlen von Feinstaubemissionen, wodurch sie insbesondere für dicht besiedelte Räume attraktiv ist. Gleichzeitig bleiben Herausforderungen wie hohe Investitionskosten erheblich. Mittelgeschwindigkeits-Magnetschwebebahnsysteme besitzen das größte Potenzial bei Anwendungen wie städtischen Ringlinien, Flughafenanbindungen und Strecken in topographisch anspruchsvollen Gebieten. Für kurze innerstädtische Distanzen sind konventionelle Systeme wie Straßenbahnen und Busse weiterhin praktikabler und kostengünstiger. Ein wesentlicher Kritikpunkt betrifft die ästhetische Gestaltung der Magnetbahnfahrwege, da ihre derzeit oft massive Betonoptik einer breiteren Marktakzeptanz entgegensteht. Obwohl Kosten-, Gestaltungs- und Infrastrukturfragen die großflächige Einführung urbaner Magnetschwebebahnen derzeit begrenzen, bleibt ihr Potenzial zur Verbesserung der städtischen Mobilität erheblich. Schlagwörter: Disruption; Akzeptanzbarrieren; Infrastrukturdesign; Umwelt; Stadtplanung; Mobilitätsherausforderungen; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse. |
| Keywords: | Barriers to Acceptance, Disruption, Innovation, Infrastructure Design, Environment, Urban Planning, Cost-Benefit, Technology Assessment |
| JEL: | R40 R41 R49 R42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343524 |
| By: | Jakub Daněk; Frédéric Dobruszkes |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/413757 |
| By: | Robinson, Kora |
| Abstract: | This research brief examines pedestrian/bicycle crash and infrastructure differences in rural versus urban communities. Using Sonoma County rural communities as a case study, the brief identifies key differences in pedestrian/bicycle crash characteristics, severities, and locations. It examines differences in the nature of active travel, demographics, and current pedestrian/bicycle infrastructure and future investments. Interviews with three planners working in the county are included to identify key community and infrastructure challenges and areas for opportunities in rural versus urban communities. The brief concludes with recommendations for more collaboration between the state and local agencies for conducting safety improvements in rural communities and urges planners to consider crash characteristics and differences in the nature of active travel when implementing said improvements. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Sonoma County, Pedestrian and bicycle safety, rural and urban |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5f18t1xm |
| By: | Saba Anwar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Bilal Aftab (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Muhammad Zaman (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Introduction The road safety landscape in Pakistan is marked by poor road conditions, laxity in traffic law implementation and widespread culture of risky driving habits. These are aggravated by lack of law enforcement, rampant corruption and scarcity of resources. In addition, the use of outdated vehicles lacking necessary safety features… |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:144 |
| By: | Turner, Ryan; Jafari, Afshin; Tiwari, Sapan (RMIT University); Both, Alan; Singh, Dhirendra; Pemberton, Steve; De Gruyter, Chris |
| Abstract: | Testing transport interventions using city-scale transport models is typically resource intensive, requiring specialist expertise, substantial data and computational capacity. As a result, such modelling is often concentrated on major projects and larger metropolitan areas, while smaller interventions and mid-sized regional cities have limited access to comparable modelling capabilities. This is particularly relevant to active travel, where cycling infrastructure decisions frequently need to be made with relatively limited modelling and decision-support capacity. This study presents FASTrack, a cloud-based planning support software system that integrates agent-based modelling, behavioural simulation, and interactive scenario visualisation to enable proposed cycling infrastructure assessment. A case study is applied to the City of Greater Bendigo, a mid-sized regional Australian city representative of the planning contexts that existing platforms often overlook. FASTrack was developed through a co-design process over three years with local government planning partners, to address the need to rapidly assess infrastructure scenarios, quantify changes in cycling demand and behaviour, and inform infrastructure planning and investment appraisal. These requirements underpin its design, including the use of probabilistic modelling and a cloud-based workflow designed to support rapid, on-demand scenario testing with minimal specialist modelling expertise. Scenario outcomes are presented through interactive dashboard-style interfaces that detail estimated changes in network use, level of traffic stress, mode shift, cycling usage, emissions, and cost-benefit analysis aligned with national appraisal guidelines. This study demonstrates how co-design can directly shape the development of planning support systems by translating practitioner requirements into accessible modelling platforms for cycling infrastructure planning |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q69rv_v1 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai (Tsinghua University); Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania); Yiliang Li (Peking University); Ricardo Marto (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it. Using satellite vessel-tracking data, we construct route-level measures of potential and effective capacity for all U.S.-bound container ships from 2016 to 2025. Utilization losses in recent disruptions ran 20 to 40 percentage points, and began months before port congestion became visible. We embed these measures in a general equilibrium model in which firms reallocate a common fleet without internalizing the congestion they create and price above marginal cost, while importers’ sourcing responds to route profitability. The reallocation triggered by a disruption then has first-order welfare effects, and the route’s Domar weight is not a sufficient statistic for its welfare cost. The 2021 West Coast crisis and the 2023–2024 Red Sea attacks cost 0.69% and 0.35% of output. Naval protection of Red Sea shipping generated benefits of 0.04–0.08% of output at a fiscal cost of 0.02%. Tariffs decongest the routes they tax, offsetting or even reversing their conventional welfare cost. |
| Keywords: | AIS, shipping disruptions, shipping capacity, maritime transportation, general equilibrium, supply chains, trade policy |
| JEL: | E23 F12 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:26-015 |
| By: | Luz, Gregorio; de Carvalho Duarte, Janaina Carla; Martins, Walysson Tangrins |
| Abstract: | Whether a public transport subsidy benefits the poor is usually settled by who is allocated more per trip. That angle shows only part of the picture. We put four questions to one instrument, combining operator expenditure, smartcard validations and vehicle GPS for the bus system of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, subsidized since 2022. First, who receives it, in monetary terms as the literature does, at finer resolution, costing each vehicle segment and dividing it among those aboard. Among riders the transfer is progressive, against prior Global South evidence, the poorest quintile receiving 1.68 times the richest. Second, how the fare distributes costs. That quintile also pays most, on incomes 8.7 times smaller, and 45.8% of riders pay more in fares than they cost. Third, where the money accumulates in the city. It is progressive by income, per rider and per place, because those most expensive to carry live in the poor bus-dependent periphery, yet regressive where disadvantage is accessibility, because an untargeted per-vehicle-kilometer payment follows demand, and enough riders there outweigh their lower cost each. Fourth, whether the access it buys is equitable, against four normative lenses across wide ranges of cumulative and gravity-based specifications. Utilitarian and sufficientarian verdicts hold almost throughout. Egalitarian and Rawlsian verdicts depend on the indicator, its parameter, and whether gains are absolute or relative. The equity of a supply-side subsidy is not one question with one answer. Answering one and stopping is not wrong but partial, and partiality is indistinguishable from selection unless alternatives are reported. |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:u2yvf_v1 |
| By: | Schmal, Wolfgang Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Railteam, an alliance of European high-speed operators, offers HOTNAT: passengers who miss a cross-border connection may board another member's next available train at no extra charge. The European Commission's May 2026 Passenger Package would extend passenger rights across multi-operator journeys, making HOTNAT's design a live question. Reciprocity saves transaction costs while claims roughly balance, but operators differ in network size, connecting traffic, frequency, reliability and the value of a spare seat. Without settlement, the operator causing a missed connection shifts part of the cost to whoever carries the passenger, weighing most heavily on small point-to-point operators. Attribution suffers too: the passenger meets the operator without a seat, not the one that caused the delay. When authorised passengers outnumber spare seats, no published rule decides who travels. Onward travel should stay free at the point of use. A flat, causation-based clearing tariff with netting and a published priority order would preserve that benefit, spread recovery costs neutrally and sharpen reliability incentives. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:formoe:344001 |
| By: | Lorenzo Bencivelli (Bank of Italy); Alessio Ciarlone (Bank of Italy); Emidio Cocozza (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gerali (Bank of Italy); Andrea Perin (Bank of Italy); Carmine Porello (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the major structural transformations that have been reshaping the global automotive industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. Organized as a series of questions and answers, it analyses key developments across market dynamics, electrification, trade policy, supply chains, and digital technology. The post-pandemic recovery has been strikingly uneven: while China's vehicle sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels, advanced economies - particularly in the European Union - remain significantly below 2019 volumes, reflecting weakened affordability and policy uncertainty. China's rapid rise as the world's largest electric vehicle producer and exporter, driven by sustained industrial policy, battery supply chain dominance, and an estimated 30 to 45 per cent manufacturing cost edge over Western competitors, has fundamentally altered competitive dynamics. European, Japanese, and Korean original equipment manufacturers face mounting pressure from Chinese electrification, trade fragmentation, and the transition to software-defined vehicles, where Chinese firms are estimated to have a two- to three-year lead. US and EU defensive measures-including prohibitive tariffs and countervailing duties-have proved only partially effective, with EU passenger car imports from China rising by nearly 30 per cent in 2025. The paper concludes that diverging industrial, trade, and environmental policies are fragmenting global automotive markets into distinct regional ecosystems, raising costs, complicating investment, and accelerating a structural realignment of competitive advantage. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles, trade policy, automotive industry |
| JEL: | L62 F13 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1030_26 |
| By: | Ribiero, Ashley |
| Abstract: | This research brief explores the landscape of electric bikes (e-bikes) and ridership in California, including the evolution of e-bike policies, rider use and demographics, and features of emerging e-bike safety programs. It discusses crash data reporting and explores limitations for capturing e-bike crash data, providing insights into potential solutions with a case study on Marin County. Findings indicate that decision-making when riding ebikes may be influenced by environmental factors, while safety courses offer avenues to engage both students and guardians in the learning experience to increase confidence and skill-building. This brief also explores ways in which hospitals and trauma centers may help alleviate data limitations with their collection of injury reporting relating to e-bikes, and how advances made in Marin County for crash data collection may provide a standard for the rest of the state. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, e-bike crash, e-bikes, California, Marin County |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt694622qc |
| By: | fahey, orla |
| Abstract: | Designing for pedestrian road safety is challenging. Designs need to work for a broad and diverse range of pedestrians, while also considering the needs of other vulnerable road users, such as cyclists. Pedestrians are ranked as the most vulnerable in the road user hierarchy and designing for those with protected characteristics is critically important for road safety designers. One key challenge faced is designing the environment so that safety provisions can align with national and international goals to encourage people to walk or wheel more for health, economic and environmental reasons. Doctoral research was undertaken to understand whether and how design can improve pedestrian road safety and used key study sites in London to investigate the relationship between safety affordances in public space and pedestrian safety. One main finding was that often, during a redesign, safety features are removed. The consequences of these changes make it difficult for pedestrians to maintain their safety, particularly those with protected characteristics. Beyond potential physical harm, there are psychosocial impacts: people may avoid a route if they feel it is unsafe or leads to conflict in contested spaces which leaves pedestrians feeling unable to navigate a space confidently. These experiences are not routinely captured within road safety data, which focuses largely on KSI (killed or seriously injured) outcomes. I have coined this phenomenon of removing an affordance a disaffordance. The concept comes from over five years of doctoral research into pedestrian road safety in the UK, which focused on pedestrian-only study sites in London that had been redesigned as shared-space zones. Identifying safety affordances and disaffordances in the built environment helps to identify opportunities for broader and more systematic pedestrian participation in the design process. The research also developed GroundMap, a diagnostic approach for identifying and mapping affordances and disaffordances and anticipating the potential consequences of their removal. At a broader level, the term disaffordance might be extended to identify other environments where the removal of an affordance has significant consequences. While this research applies the concept specifically to pedestrian safety, its wider application across other environments and domains is identified here as a direction for future work. |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6tb3p_v2 |
| By: | Schmal, Wolfgang Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Im Schienenpersonenfernverkehr entstehen zunehmend neue Angebote auf nachfragestarken Verbindungen. Diese Entwicklung ist wettbewerbspolitisch zu begrüßen. Sie legt aber ein institutionelles Problem offen: Der Zugang zu besonders attraktiven Trassen ist bislang kaum systematisch mit den Netzbeiträgen anderer Fernverkehrsleistungen verknüpft. Der Beitrag entwickelt ein Trassencredit-System als regelgebundenen Allokationsrahmen: Für besonders knappe Premiumtrassen müssen Credits eingesetzt werden; netzergänzende Fernverkehrsleistungen erzeugen Credits. Bewertet werden ausschließlich objektivierbare Verkehrsleistungen, nicht die historischen Kosten eines etablierten Betreibers. Ordnungsökonomisch überführt das Modell eine bislang implizite Netzverantwortung in ein regulatorisch definiertes, handelbares Nutzungsrecht innerhalb einer regelgebundenen Wettbewerbsordnung. Seine Tragfähigkeit hängt davon ab, ob zwei Fehlerquellen institutionell beherrscht werden: die Marktmacht eines dominanten Anbieters im Creditmarkt und die Vereinnahmung der Bewertungsregel. |
| Abstract: | Open-access competition is bringing new long-distance rail services to high-demand routes. This is a welcome development from a competition-policy perspective, but it reveals an institutional problem: access to especially attractive paths is only weakly connected to the network contributions generated by other long-distance rail services. This paper proposes a track-credit scheme as a rule-bound allocation framework. Scarce premium paths require credits, while network-complementary services generate them. Valuation rests on observable transport outputs, not on the historical costs of an incumbent operator. The scheme converts an implicit network contribution into a regulatorily defined, tradable usage right within a rule-bound competitive order, provided two failure modes, incumbent market power and capture of the scoring rule, are contained. |
| Keywords: | Schienenpersonenfernverkehr, Open Access, Trassenvergabe, handelbare Credits, Netzökonomie, Wettbewerbspolitik, long-distance rail, open access, slot allocation, tradable credits, network economics, competition policy |
| JEL: | L92 R48 D47 D23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:343554 |
| By: | Enisse Kharroubi |
| Abstract: | The conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered an unprecedented shock to the global economy. Using historical data from the IMF/University of Oxford Portwatch database on maritime traffic, this paper empirically examines some of the potential economic and financial consequences of disruptions to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The analysis highlights the role of this chokepoint as a global supply indicator, with traffic disruptions acting as a global stagflation-inducing force. While commodity prices — especially energy prices — tend to increase after an adverse shock to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, such negative shocks are systematically followed by a combination of lower global output and higher global consumer prices. In addition, negative shocks to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz tighten financial conditions, with spreads on both advanced economies (AEs) corporate bonds and emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign bonds widening significantly. These findings underscore the Strait of Hormuz’s critical role in the global economy and highlight avenues for future research on chokepoint shocks. |
| Keywords: | chokepoints, Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic, global supply shocks, financial conditions |
| JEL: | E23 E24 E31 E32 E52 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1378 |
| By: | Robinson, Kora; Ornelas, Lucia |
| Abstract: | UC Berkeley SafeTREC and California Walks (the project team) conducted Community Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Program (CPBSP) workshops in seven communities in 2026. All seven of the workshops were conducted in-person. The following research brief discusses findings from the program evaluation, and evaluation developed using the Kirkpatrick Model framework. Levels 1 and 2 of the model (reaction and learning) were measured at the end of each CPBSP workshop with an in-person survey, whereas levels 3 and 4 were measured with an electronic survey hosted on Qualtrics. The electronic survey was distributed to participants of program site planning for the Community Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Training Program (CPBST) within the past five years (2021-2025) and those that participated in program site planning for the Comunidades Activas y Seguras Program (CAyS) within the past two years (2024-2025). The narratives included in this brief highlight key findings from the two surveys and offer takeaways for future programming. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Pedestrian safety, bicycle safety |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5m21s7vh |
| By: | Monsees, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Distance to healthcare services is a major influence on healthcare utilization. However, measuring its actual impact proves difficult because the location of healthcare facilities and place of residence are highly endogenous. This paper presents new exogenous variation to isolate this relationship: closures of German highways (Autobahnen). They are implemented using a fixed-effects model with administrative data from a large German health insurance company. Results indicate that the closures lead to significant changes in driving times and that inpatient utilization reacts with an elasticity of around -0.15%. This is much smaller than the overall correlation (-0.86%), but still of relevant size. Distance to a hospital is therefore, by itself, an important factor for its utilization, even if its impact is smaller than the overall correlation might suggest. Patients rather switch to different hospitals than forgo inpatient care or substitute it with primary care. Individuals living in rural areas or in areas with low purchasing power are the most sensitive to changes in driving times. |
| Abstract: | Die Entfernung zu gesundheitlichen Versorgungseinrichtungen ist ein wesentlicher Einflussfaktor auf die Inanspruchnahme von Gesundheitsleistungen. Die tatsächliche Wirkung lässt sich jedoch nur schwer messen, weil sowohl die Lage der Gesundheitseinrichtungen als auch der Wohnort stark endogen sind. Diese Arbeit stellt eine neue exogene Variation vor, um diesen Zusammenhang zu isolieren: Schließungen deutscher Autobahnen. Diese werden mithilfe eines Fixed-Effects-Modells unter Verwendung administrativer Daten einer großen deutschen Krankenversicherung angewendet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Sperrungen zu erheblichen Veränderungen der Fahrzeiten führen und dass die Inanspruchnahme stationärer Krankenhausleistungen mit einer Elastizität von etwa -0, 15% reagiert. Diese Größenordnung ist deutlich kleiner als die gesamte Korrelation (-0, 86%), bleibt jedoch in einem relevanten Ausmaß. Die Entfernung zu einem Krankenhaus ist damit an sich ein wichtiger Faktor für dessen Inanspruchnahme, auch wenn ihr Effekt kleiner ist, als es die Gesamt-Korrelation nahelegt. Patientinnen und Patienten weichen eher auf andere Krankenhäuser aus, als dass sie auf eine stationäre Versorgung verzichten oder diese durch eine primärärztliche Versorgung ersetzen. Personen, die in ländlichen Regionen oder in Gebieten mit geringer Kaufkraft leben reagieren besonders stark auf Fahrzeitänderungen. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare utilization, Hospital accessibility, Distance to care, Driving time, Travel time, Highway closures |
| JEL: | I11 I14 I18 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:343571 |
| By: | Ladha, Rijhul; Palia, Ridhi; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt56p7q5wk |