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on Transport Economics |
| By: | VARMA, VIJAYA |
| Abstract: | Rapid urbanization and increasing traffic congestion in Visakhapatnam have highlighted the need for an integrated transportation system capable of accommodating future mobility demands while minimizing land acquisition and disruption to existing urban infrastructure. This paper presents a conceptual proposal for a Multi-Tier Integrated Urban Mobility Corridor (MTIUMC) extending approximately 54 kilometres along the NH-16 corridor between Lankela palem Junction and Ananda Puram Junction. Although the concept has been developed specifically for the transportation requirements of Visakhapatnam, the underlying planning and engineering principles may also be studied and evaluated for application in other metropolitan regions facing similar urban transportation challenges. Subject to detailed technical, economic, and operational assessments, the proposed framework may be considered as a potential alternative or complementary approach to conventional urban mass transit systems, including metro rail, depending on the specific requirements and constraints of individual cities |
| Keywords: | Multi-Tier Urban Mobility, Integrated Urban Transportation, Elevated Express Highway, Electric Bus Rapid Transit (e-BRT), Continuous Ramp Connection Lane (CRCL), Multimodal Interchange Hub, |
| JEL: | R0 R4 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130350 |
| By: | Treb Allen; Simon Fuchs; Woan Foong Wong |
| Abstract: | How do we evaluate the welfare gains from transport infrastructure investment? We present a quantitative spatial framework that integrates traffic and economic responses to infrastructure improvements and derives the elasticity of aggregate welfare to changes in the transportation network. The resulting formula extends the traditional ``social savings'' method to incorporate route and mode choice, agglomeration and dispersion externalities, and traffic congestion. We apply the formula to the U.S. freight network and assess the benefits of reducing costs on each segment of the U.S. Interstate Highway System. The traditional and extended measures are closely related overall, but they differ in the level of estimated gains and in the ranking of some highly valued links. Where the rankings differ, network position determines how congestion and spatial adjustment alter a link's measured benefit. |
| JEL: | F1 R1 R4 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35599 |
| By: | Joschka Flintz; Stefanie Gaebler; Viktoria Kleinschmidt; Felix Roesel |
| Abstract: | Does better railway infrastructure encourage people to register less private cars? We analyse the opening of 170 train stations in Germany between 2010 and 2022 and compare them to a control group of locations that were identified as potential sites for new stations. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that annual car registrations within the catchment area of a newly opened station decline by at least 3.5 to 5.5 percent permanently. These effects are consistent in both urban and rural settings and correspond, on average, to at least 140 fewer car registrations over ten years for each new station. Further evidence suggests that the effects are driven by habit changes rather than by spatial sorting, leading to the conclusion that new train stations reduce the number of car registrations both locally and globally. |
| Keywords: | train stations, railway infrastructure, car registrations, sustainable transport |
| JEL: | L92 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12927 |
| By: | Singleton, Alex; Philips, Ian; Anable, Jillian |
| Abstract: | Battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption is an important contributor to the decarbonisation of road transport in the UK and other OECD countries, yet uptake remains highly uneven between places. This paper examines the geography of privately kept battery electric vehicles across UK small areas using quarterly DVLA vehicle licensing records, linked geodemographically to the 2021/22 UK Output Area Classification. The analysis measures observed private vehicle ownership at neighbourhood scale, enabling within local authority variation to be examined directly. The results show that BEV penetration is strongly right-skewed, with adoption concentrated in affluent professional neighbourhoods, prosperous suburban and rural areas, and dense urban cores with relatively small but rapidly electrifying private fleets. Lower uptake is associated with neighbourhoods characterised by rented tenure, terraced housing and flats, where access to private off-street charging is likely to be more constrained. Partitioning the national time series by geodemographic type reveals that the aggregate adoption curve is composed of distinct trajectories, with some early-adopting neighbourhood types showing signs of slower recent growth while later-adopting groups continue to accelerate. Residuals from the geodemographic baseline are spatially clustered, indicating that neighbourhood composition alone does not explain the geography of adoption. The paper demonstrates the value of combining administrative vehicle records with geodemographic classification to identify where BEV adoption is leading, lagging and diverging from demographic expectation, with implications for a more equitable rollout of charging infrastructure and transport decarbonisation policy. |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6q7uf_v1 |
| By: | Johannes Gessner; Wolfgang Habla; Benjamin Rübenacker; Ulrich J. Wagner |
| Abstract: | Many European companies face the challenge of lowering CO2 emissions from their company car fleets. A promising lever is to increase the notoriously low electric usage of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). This paper examines whether home charging infrastructure can help achieve these goals. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the delivery and installation of home chargers to quantify the impact of this technology on energy use and CO2 emissions of PHEV company cars held by 856 employees of a large German company. Since fuel and electricity expenditures for these cars are covered by the employer, home charging mainly changes the non-monetary costs to an employee. We find that access to home charging almost quintuples electricity consumption: Total charging increases by 318 kWh per quarter while fuel consumption falls by 98 liters, reducing tailpipe CO2 emissions by 38%. Moreover, access to home charging doubles the employee’s propensity to choose a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) upon renewal of the lease. Based on these estimates we compute the private levelized abatement costs of home chargers for a range of scenarios characterizing the diffusion of BEVs and the evolution of tax-inclusive energy prices over a 20-year horizon. Home chargers break even within twelve years, saving on average 13 tons of CO2 over a 20-year lifetime at negative levelized cost. |
| Keywords: | charging infrastructure, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, electric driving share, technology adoption, company cars, marginal emissions |
| JEL: | D12 L91 Q52 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_663v2 |
| By: | Huang, Emma; Barry, Erin; Schank, Joshua L. PhD; Terplan, Egon PhD |
| Abstract: | This white paper examines the successes and failures of road pricing strategies in California and the United States, with implications for congestion pricing across California. It evaluates nine case studies spanning feasibility studies, operational HOT lane programs, and the country's first large-scale cordon pricing zone. We address the conditions that favor pricing, barriers, outcomes, and how costs and benefits are distributed using case studies in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Mateo County, Alameda County, New York City, and Northern Virginia. We find that successful pricing programs have sustained political champions, state enabling legislation, and benefits visible to identifiable users. Revenue allocation, not toll structure, is the primary determinant of whether pricing is regressive or progressive. No pricing program reviewed was repealed after implementation. We conclude that advancing road pricing in California will require clear state leadership and supportive coalitions. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Road pricing, Congestion pricing, High occupancy toll lanes, Case studies, Legislation, Policy analysis, Transportation equity |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6gh3f3qw |
| By: | Fieles-Ahmad, Omar Martin; Kvasnicka, Michael; Libet, Victor |
| Abstract: | We study whether the sharp rise in petrol prices following the bombing of Iran on 28 February 2026 affected the short-run demand for battery electric vehicles in EU-27 countries. Using monthly vehicle-registration data and fixed-effects panel regressions, we show that the petrol-price shock increased battery electric-vehicle adoption, in particular in countries with better charging infrastructure and lower charging costs. Our findings suggest that higher fossil-fuel prices can accelerate the transition towards electric mobility. |
| Abstract: | In unserer Arbeit untersuchen wir, ob der starke Anstieg der Benzinpreise nach dem Bombenangriff auf den Iran am 28. Februar 2026 die kurzfristige Nachfrage nach batteriebetriebenen Elektroautos in den 27 EU-Mitgliedsstaaten verändert hat. Anhand monatlicher Kraftfahrzeug-Zulassungsdaten und Panelregressionen mit festen Effekten zeigen wir auf, dass der Benzinpreis-Schock die Nachfrage nach batteriebetriebenen Elektroautos gesteigert hat - insbesondere in Ländern mit einer besser ausgebauten Ladeinfrastruktur und niedrigeren Ladekosten. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass höhere Preise für fossile Brennstoffe die Transformation hin zur Elektromobilität beschleunigen. |
| Keywords: | War, oil price shock, fossil fuel prices, electric cars, mobility transition, EU 27 |
| JEL: | D12 Q42 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:342546 |
| By: | Lonzius, Marc Christopher |
| Abstract: | Delays are a serious problem in airline industries worldwide, causing severe economic damage to a multitude of companies and societies. The research on delay causes as well as measures of delay reduction has been vast over the past decades, contributing rich insights to the matter. In particular, the airline planning, crew pairing, and aircraft scheduling process and its optimizations have received considerable attention in literature. This dissertation focuses on two of the main drivers of airline delay. First, a large part of daily airline delays is caused by network effects such as delays in the national aviation system and delays being propagated through the network on one day of operation. Research on airline delays has primarily focused on the macro perspective, thus analyzing entire domestic and global airline networks. Consequently, assuming a micro perspective on single aircraft routings and their delay implications still has considerable research potential. The underlying work scrutinizes selected strategies to create more robust aircraft routing schedules in the daily flight network. One of these strategies is reducing the hub connectivity in routings. Another strategy is creating swap opportunities for aircraft of the same type. A third strategy is to substitute routings with certain topologies less prone to delays by more efficient aircraft routings. While all three strategies have already received attention in literature, novel ways of analysis are applied providing a valuable addition to pertinent work. Also, large real-life datasets are used to empirically verify the corresponding research assumptions. Another key driver of daily airline delays are bad weather conditions. A comprehensive analysis of pertinent literature has revealed a multitude of different approaches to analyze weather delay. The underlying work aligns various approaches and builds an econometric model to guide decision-making on how to include weather more efficiently into research on airline delays. The research and analysis conducted in this dissertation provides various possibilities of real-life application. Planners in aircraft scheduling departments of major airlines can utilize the conclusions made to improve the robustness of daily aircraft schedules and to gain more insights the handling of weather-related delays. In addition, fellow researchers are provided with suggestions how to enhance the applied measures to adjacent or even more detailed areas of analysis. This dissertation is comprised of a synopsis preparing the separate research studies and depicting their integrative context. Following the synopsis, the dissertation includes three separate studies, of which the first two studies have been published in scientifically recognized journals with the third study being a working paper. Subsequently, a cross-study conclusion provides an integrated and final view on the underlying dissertation. |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:161066 |
| By: | Fernando, Sachintha |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates Mideksa (2024), which applies the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of Finland's 1990 carbon tax introduction on per capita transport sector carbon emissions. I successfully replicate the main findings: the synthetic counterfactual closely tracks Finnish emissions in the pre-treatment period, with a substantial post-1990 divergence consistent with the original study. However, I show that this result is entirely driven by the inclusion of a single donor unit, Luxembourg, which is a structural outlier yet receives a positive weight in the optimization. Including Luxembourg is unusual in the literature: Luxembourg is a well-documented structural outlier, as its comparatively low fuel prices attract fuel tourism from neighboring countries, inflating its recorded transport emissions relative to actual domestic transport activity. Excluding Luxembourg deteriorates the pre-treatment fit and attenuates the estimated treatment effect, which falls to roughly a third of the original estimate and becomes indistinguishable from the placebo distribution. A donor pool resampling exercise confirms that the large treatment effect reported in the original study is systematically concentrated in subsamples containing Luxembourg. These findings highlight the sensitivity of synthetic control estimates to donor pool composition and provide an empirical illustration of interpolation bias in action. |
| Keywords: | synthetic controls, replication, carbon taxes, policy evaluation |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:317 |
| By: | Mo, Taejun; Nino, Gustavo; Ridley, William |
| Abstract: | Disruptions to supply chain transportation networks, such as natural disasters, can generate substantial economic costs. This paper combines data on more than 1, 200 road-related landslides with seven years of weekly domestic trade data in Colombia to estimate the effects of transportation network disruptions on domestic trade and welfare. Using a structural gravity framework, we show that landslides reduce trade by increasing transport frictions. However, their welfare effects are not uniform and disruptions reallocate trade across regions, generating both winners and losers. Our results show that regions with stronger export orientation experience welfare gains when landslides occur, while regions more dependent on imports experience welfare losses. These effects reflect both direct bilateral impacts and indirect multilateral adjustments across the domestic trade network. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404669 |
| By: | Arnaud Garnier (LHEEA - Laboratoire de recherche en Hydrodynamique, Énergétique et Environnement Atmosphérique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Pierre Marty (LHEEA - Laboratoire de recherche en Hydrodynamique, Énergétique et Environnement Atmosphérique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Rodica Loisel (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | The pathway towards decarbonisation of shipping is unclear, as many technical, economic, and regulatory challenges remain. This study builds a bottom-up model to forecast the merchant fleet vessel composition and CO2 emissions by 2050. A 35, 000 vessel fleet is modelled based on technical and operational data, on the population pyramid and historical fleet evolution triggered by trade demand. The emissions forecast in a ‘no-action' scenario shows that even low-growth traffic scenarios will largely deviate from the carbon neutrality objectives. It highlights fleet heterogeneity as a key point in understanding and considering global decarbonisation strategy. Fleet renewal analysis revealed technical and planning issues due to the tendency towards larger vessels and high building rates up to 2000 vessels per year from 2040 onwards. Alternatively, retrofitting could significantly contribute to carbon neutrality, concerning up to 40% of the shipping tonnage if the strategy of decarbonisation is not integrated early in shipyard industry planning. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption model, Shipping decarbonisation, Bottom-up approach, Fleet renewal inertia, Traffic demand scenarios, Emission forecast, AIS data |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05692446 |
| By: | De Roche, Gabriel (University of California, San Diego); de Brito, Sophia Tomany; Min, Yohan; Poudel, Sanjay; Singh, Madalsa; Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia; Deshmukh, Ranjit; Wu, Grace C.; Mildenberger, Matto |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing residential energy depends on millions of households making millions of purchasing decisions across multiple household electrification technologies, especially solar and storage systems, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and induction stoves. This paper describes consumer attitudes towards household electrification using a large representative survey of 7, 158 households in California, with data collected in Spring 2025 from a stratified sample that includes large subgroups across all of California's climate zones as well as from census tracts designated as Disadvantaged Communities by the state. Alongside a wide range of sociodemographic and attitudinal predictors of current adoption, we measure future adoption interest with a personalized contingent-valuation measure of the minimum financial incentive/subsidy required to adopt along a technology-specific subsidy ladder. Leveraging the large statewide sample size, we also use multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to estimate future adoption rates for each of California's 9, 129 census tracts for every threshold along this subsidy ladder. We find substantial latent demand, especially for technologies with low current adoption. We also find heterogeneity across technologies in consumers' sensitivity to subsidies and that attitudinal predictors (and especially beliefs about cost, health, and safety benefits) dominate sociodemographic predictors. These results have direct implications for active policy design. Information campaigns designed to shift beliefs about health and safety play an important complementary role alongside cost-focused messages. Our geographically fine-grained estimates of future adoption at the census tract level provide rich local data for policy-makers, researchers, and practitioners designing incentive programs and planning grid infrastructure as California households continue to electrify. |
| Date: | 2026–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zjcw2_v1 |
| By: | Mottaleb, Khondoker; Meerza, Syed Imran Ali |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the long-run impacts of the Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge on agricultural transformation and rural welfare in Bangladesh. Exploiting the bridge opening in June 1998 as a quasi-natural experiment, we use six waves of nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey data and a difference-indifferences framework. The results indicate that households in treatment areas experienced higher expenditures, increased agricultural investment, greater agricultural commercialization, and stronger production growth following the bridge opening. Effects are stronger in districts closer to the bridge, suggesting that reduced transport costs and improved market access generated durable rural transformation. The findings highlight the role of large-scale transport infrastructure in reducing spatial isolation, improving agricultural outcomes, and supporting progress toward poverty reduction and food-security goals. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404755 |
| By: | Sebastien Bradley (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Mian Dai (School of Economics, Drexel University); Blaize Giangiulio (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Yoto V. Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)) |
| Abstract: | We study the spillover effects of the 2025 "Liberation Day" automotive tariffs on the untaxed U.S. used-car market. Using over eight million weekly listings and a VIN-based crosswalk identifying each vehicle's country of assembly, we document an immediate and persistent 0.2-0.6% increase in the prices of foreign-brand used vehicles relative to domestic-brand vehicles. The effect is concentrated among the newest vehicles - the closest substitutes for new cars - consistent with demand-side substitution. We also find that foreign-brand vehicles produced in the U.S. appreciate as much as those assembled abroad, suggesting that the perceived foreignness of used vehicles may be largely independent of true production location. Neglecting tariff pass-through to untaxed product substitutes understates overall consumer incidence. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs; Tariff incidence; Spillover effects; Used cars; Trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202616 |
| By: | SatoshiImahie (Toulouse School of Economics, FRANCE and Junior Research Fellow, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Why do uninformed consumers pay more? A long-standing answer is market unfamiliarity. Yet how much it contributes to information frictions, and whether it fades with experience, have not been directly measured. I answer these questions using millions of fuel purchases by Japanese drivers. Identification exploits two kinds of variation in familiarity, from travel and relocation. Comparing the same driver across markets, I find that unfamiliarity accounts for 62% of the price gap between informed and uninformed consumers, while persistent individual differences explain the rest. This unfamiliarity-driven gap (the experience premium) declines with repeated purchases, consistent with learning in consumer search. |
| Keywords: | Consumer search; Information friction; State dependence; Learning; Gasoline |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-22 |
| By: | Celian Colon; Stephane Hallegatte |
| Abstract: | Building resilience to natural hazards requires more than identifying critical assets. It requires understanding how supply chains respond to disruptions: where suppliers are located, what inventories firms hold, how diversified their sourcing is, and how products are transported. This paper summarizes key insights from DisruptSC, a spatial agent-based model that jointly represents the transport network and firm-level supply chains, applied to four countries or regions: Tanzania, Cambodia, Ecuador, and the Middle Corridor (Central Asia and South Caucasus). Five policy-relevant findings emerge. First, the duration of a disruption is a primary driver of total economic losses, making fast recovery a crucial lever for risk reduction. Second, the distribution of direct damages across firms and facilities matters as much as the total damages in determining total economic losses. Third, compounding events striking in close succession amplify losses in non-trivial ways, so that individual events cannot be assessed in isolation. Fourth, shorter supply chains do not always increase resilience: they buffer small, frequent disruptions but amplify large ones, reflecting a trade-off between efficiency and resilience that depends on the characteristics of the firm network and the nature of the risks. And fifth, resilience is a network externality—its benefits spill across firms and across borders — so markets under-provide it, and coordinated policy, within and between countries, has a role to play. The paper also illustrates how the model can be used for operational risk assessments or investment prioritization through transport investment stress testing, hotspot identification, and cost-benefit analyses that capture supply chain impacts. |
| Keywords: | supply chains, transport resilience, natural disaster, climate adaptation, criticality, agent-based modeling |
| JEL: | Q54 R42 D57 D85 C63 O18 H54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12950 |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau; Nikolaj Nielsen; Thomas Rasmussen; Rui Yao |
| Abstract: | We provide an estimator for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model that works with data at the level of individual trips. The estimator is a nested fixed-point algorithm that combines an upper bias-corrected linear regression problem with a lower individual-level perturbed utility maximization problem. We establish the statistical properties of the microPURC estimator and confirm these results with an experiment using simulated data. Finally, we demonstrate the estimator in practice using a large real-world dataset. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.11464 |