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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Kurzhanskiy, Alex PhD |
| Abstract: | As California transitions to electric vehicles (EVs), ensuring equitable access to public charging remains a challenge. While the state and utilities have invested heavily in new charging infrastructure, simply counting stations does not show whether the network is reliable, affordable, and accessible, particularly for vulnerable populations and renters without home charging options. As of March 2025, California had installed about 178, 549 public and shared- private chargers, including roughly 17, 000 DC fast chargers. The California Energy Commission projects a need for about 1.01 million chargers by 2030 to support 7.5 million zero-emission vehicles. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2975d8m6 |
| By: | Tomoki Ishikura |
| Abstract: | The damage to transportation infrastructure caused by disasters can indirectly lead to economic damage through economic interdependence, even in areas that are not directly affected. However, even when transportation routes are interrupted by a disaster, the damage can be mitigated if alternative routes are secured. Rural areas with low-density transportation networks are more vulnerable to traffic disruptions in a disaster. This study develops a method for evaluating the effectiveness of redundant transportation networks in mitigating economic vulnerability in the event of a disaster. Our methodology combines inter-regional road network connectivity with a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model. We apply the method to road disruption scenarios in the Chugoku region of Japan, which has a system of parallel highways. The affected areas are in close geographical proximity to many rural areas and have strong economic interdependencies with them. Several counterfactual simulations depicted the situation without the alternative road and the disaster. We evaluate the transportation impacts, measured by changes in travel time, and the economic impacts, measured by negative benefits, respectively. The results suggest that the economic vulnerability reduction effect is more far-reaching than the transportation impacts. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.00614 |
| By: | Bento Maria |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the spatial concentration of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) across Portuguese municipalities and examines how fiscal incentives are associated with that concentration. Using municipality-level data on BEV registrations, population, density, charging infrastructure, and local parking incentives, this paper combines loglinear modelling, rank-size analysis, and network analysis. Municipalities are represented as nodes in a complete network constructed from geographical distances. A minimum spanning tree is used to identify the connectivity threshold required to keep all municipalities connected. Such a threshold is used to move from a complete network to a sparse one, to which centrality measures are computed. The analysis provides descriptive evidence on whether BEV adoption is concentrated in larger, denser, better connected, and better equipped municipalities. The results contribute to the understanding of spatial inequalities in electric mobility adoption in Portugal and highlight the importance of considering network analysis when evaluating fiscal incentives. |
| Keywords: | Battery electric vehicles, fiscal incentives, network analysis, spatial concentration, road infrastructure, Portugal. |
| JEL: | R12 R48 H23 Q58 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04202026 |
| By: | de Assis, Rebeca Froés; Loureiro, Carlos Felipe Grangeiro; Tiznado-Aitken, Ignacio |
| Abstract: | Transport-induced gentrification (TIG) has received growing scholarly attention, often focusing on displaced groups. Much less is known about the experiences of low-income incumbents who remain in place, particularly in unequal cities as the ones in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap, investigating if TIG generates reliance on motorized modes due to the social exclusion of low-income incumbents. We argue that urban reshaping near newly implemented transport infrastructures and services may isolate low-income communities as nearby opportunities become less affordable, prompting incumbents to adapt their mobility practices, reshaping where and how they travel to engage in out-of-home activities. Using perceived accessibility as an analytical lens, we applied a qualitative approach named process tracing method in an informal settlement impacted by a Light Rail Transit system in Fortaleza, Brazil. Evidence was collected through 29 semi-structured interviews and assessed using process tracing tests. Our findings suggest that while incumbents benefit from the proximity to new supermarkets, they feel increasingly excluded from nearby leisure and commercial opportunities. Consequently, many rely on motorized modes and on-demand transport services to reach more distant destinations. These findings contribute to the transportation research agenda by framing TIG as a distinct type of Transport-related Social Exclusion and demonstrate how urban reshaping near transit stations may undermine perceived accessibility for low-income incumbents, even when objective accessibility appears to improve. |
| Date: | 2026–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gwzvm_v1 |
| By: | Luiu, Carlo; Barake, Bosibori; Wandera, Amos; Ohler, Sabrina; Pope, Francis D.; Radcliffe, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles are starting to enter the market in Kenya in the context of micro-mobility and could be an effective solution for decarbonising the growing motorcycle taxi sector and reducing its wider transport and environmental impacts. As the policy development in Kenya is in its early stages, this paper explores policy gaps supporting the transition to electric mobility in the motorcycle taxi sector. From stakeholders’ focus groups and workshops, socio-economic and environmental benefits and barriers have been identified. Main benefits comprise operational cost savings, operators’ well-being and tackling air pollution, while barriers include upfront costs of both operators and start-ups, awareness among operators, charging infrastructure, battery standards and e-waste processes. The paper provides a set of policy recommendations, stressing the need for inclusive processes that consider motorcycle taxi operators as major stakeholders of policy development and mechanisms to understand how this transition accommodates the sector’s needs over time. |
| Date: | 2026–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e9jhc_v1 |
| By: | Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) (Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC)) |
| Abstract: | Rail passenger transport is essential for economic and environmental sustainability and for social and territorial cohesion. This study identifies possible barriers that may affect the process of opening up services subject to public service obligations (PSO) to competition. To minimise these obstacles and ensure that the potential benefits of opening up are realised, it is recommended, first, to adopt a pro-competitive approach in the application of the regulations regarding the designation of PSO and their award, according to an ambitious timetable. Second, to establish an appropriate institutional framework, decoupling public operators providing services from infrastructure managers and tendering authorities, while strengthening independent oversight of the process. Third, ensure that new operators can access the relevant inputs (including infrastructure, rolling stock, workshops, driving personnel) and the information needed to compete effectively. |
| Keywords: | Railway, Public Service Obligations, Regulation, Competition, Passenger Transport, Liberalisation, Tenders |
| JEL: | K23 L5 L43 L92 R4 |
| Date: | 2026–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awo:epaper:e/cnmc/001/24_eng |
| By: | Linehan, Caitlyn; Fitch-Polse, Dillon T. PhD; Nelson, Trisalyn PhD |
| Abstract: | Cities and regions are increasingly investing in walking and bicycling infrastructure, driven by well-documented health, social, and environmental benefits of active transportation. However, most agencies lack practical tools to accurately assess whether these investments are achieving their intended outcomes. Accurately measuring change in walking and bicycling attributable to investments like new bike lanes or sidewalks is difficult and involves resources and expertise that is generally not feasible or financially sustainable for mode agencies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3jq2z22s |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Jack Collison; Pinelopi K. Goldberg; Shanjun Li; Yucheng Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 H23 L52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35334 |
| By: | Brigitte Daudet (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Ronan Kerbiriou (IDEES - Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Yann Alix (Fondation Sefacil) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Recent geopolitical events in the Red Sea have disrupted the passage of commercial vessels transiting through the Suez Canal. In response, shipping lines have rerouted services via the Cape of Good Hope to secure trade between Asia, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. This paper offers a strategic analysis of the reconfiguration of containerised flows in the Mediterranean, based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data collected over a 240-day period centred on the onset of the crisis. Rather than seeking to identify the internal decision-making processes of shipping companies, the study examines how network reconfigurations materialised at port level, using a multi-scale analytical approach focused on observable changes in port positioning within the Mediterranean port system. By combining port typology (hubs and gateways), vessel size categories and the reallocation of deployed capacity, this paper analyses relative changes in attractiveness and resilience of the main Mediterranean container ports. The results highlight a pronounced shift of capacity, particularly from the largest vessels, towards ports in the western Mediterranean, contrasting with the sharp contraction observed in several Eastern Mediterranean hubs. Within this broader East–West reconfiguration, ports such as Tanger Med illustrate how certain Western Mediterranean hubs were able to limit capacity losses, consistent with their geographical positioning and integration within carrier service networks. Overall, the study demonstrates the value of AIS data, as a strategic-monitoring tool, in documenting port-level manifestations of sudden geopolitical disruption, and supporting situational awareness for port authorities and operators, while acknowledging the limits of AIS-based inference regarding underlying strategic intentions. |
| Keywords: | Container shipping networks Red Sea crisis AIS data Mediterranean ports Port hierarchy, Container shipping networks, Red Sea crisis, AIS data, Mediterranean ports, Port hierarchy |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05619638 |
| By: | Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Teng, Xuan |
| Abstract: | Flight-booking websites, such as Google Flights and Skyscanner, increasingly display estimated CO2 emissions for flight itineraries, but little is known about whether this information affects booking decisions. We study how emissions disclosure affects consumers’ flight choices using US domestic flight data from 2018 to 2022 and a discrete-choice model and find that it increases consumers’ sensitivity to flight emissions. In our preferred specification, the absolute value of the emissions elasticity of demand increases from 0.23 in the predisclosure period to 0.28 in the period following the first disclosure. Expressed in willingness-to-pay (WTP) terms, the implied WTP for emissions reductions is $33 per ton higher in the postdisclosure period. Counterfactual simulations suggest that mandating emissions disclosure across all flight-booking platforms would further strengthen consumers’ responsiveness to emissions information.Keywords: Willingness to pay, Carbon emissions disclosure, Discrete-choice model, AviationJEL codes: D12, D83, L93, Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-08 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | Urban spatial structure is commonly evaluated through the spatial distribution of homes and jobs or through aggregate commuting outcomes. Yet these approaches do not reveal how the opportunities created by urban form are selectively transformed into actual residence-workplace connections. This study introduces opportunity-normalized residence-workplace matching by comparing observed commuting distance distributions with opportunity-based distributions constructed from all within-city residence-workplace pairs weighted by residential and employment mass. Using Output Area-level data for nine British cities, we show that realized pairings are systematically more concentrated at shorter distances than the urban opportunity structure alone would predict. After normalization, matching intensity declines with distance in a recurrent but heterogeneous pattern that is approximately linear in log-log space in many cities and can be summarized by a city-specific distance-decay coefficient. London further reveals that this regularity is scale-sensitive: a comparatively flattened citywide pattern separates into consistently negative but heterogeneous relationships across employment-centered subsystems. Supplementary evidence from New York and Chicago shows similar attenuation patterns. These findings identify realized residence-workplace matching as a distinct layer of urban structure and suggest that, in complex metropolitan systems, meaningful spatial regularities may reside in coherent matching fields rather than in aggregate city boundaries. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.08207 |
| By: | Marina Toger; Umut T\"urk; John \"Osth; Manfred M. Fischer |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sociodemographic and socioeconomic determinants of regional commuter mobility in the Greater Stockholm Area using a heteroscedastic spatial Durbin panel data model estimated via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Drawing on mobile phone-derived origin-destination flows from the MIND database, the analysis exploits unusually fine spatial and temporal granularity across a balanced panel of 675 regions over the period 2018-2023. A k-nearest neighbor spatial weight matrix (k = 18), selected via Bayesian model comparison, captures the topological structure of interregional connectivity. By modeling spatial lags in both the dependent and independent variables, the framework enables explicit recovery of direct (own-region) and indirect (spillover) effects from scalar summary measures of the matrix of partial derivatives -- providing robust posterior inference on how sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions propagate through space. This approach addresses a key limitation of conventional non-spatial methods, which risk producing biased estimates by ignoring spatial interdependence. Empirical results confirm that spatial spillovers predominate over direct effects, with educational attainment and car ownership emerging as the principal determinants of commuter mobility, while age composition plays a comparatively modest role. These findings underscore that evaluating direct effects in isolation systematically underestimates the broader societal returns to mobility-enhancing regional policies. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.22877 |
| By: | Molintas, Dominique Trual; Antonio, Danilo |
| Abstract: | This paper construes ninety-two nations railway industry with varying circumstances, in an overarching aim to extrapolate a subsidy baseline by way of numerical assimilation. Of the ninety-two nations, fifty-six nations' railways had been built during colonial rule to expedite the exploit of resources. These days, 78 nations have fully state-owned railways, many have constituted Ministries of Railways or Departments of Transport to develop the expertise in the handle operations. The selection of nations by omission of home-country, investigates the circumstance of railway industries for numerical assimilation, to extrapolate a subsidy baseline. The study is structured in four sections. Section one outlines regime change that influenced the historical development of railways. Section 2 outlines public interest in the size and complexity of railways infrastructure investment, then the validation of public interest by way of railway utilization comparatives. Section 3 presents the correlation of statistical measures of public interest, productivity and development. Section Four is the subsidy baseline by application of the Pythagorean theorem as methodology. Pythagorean Theorem is a straightforward measure to validate the scientific proposition of the ideal subsidy. The idea is that one side recognizes infrastructure investments, the other side represents its expected returns in terms of ITMS, GDP and HDi. Therefore, the gap between these two values can be explored as equivalent subsidy. In broad strokes, a subsidy figure in percent is extrapolated in this assimilation for each thousand route kilometres. Subsidy is thought to encourage economic advancement in equal importance to social equity. A baseline is an initial point of reference for comparative measure. A baseline represents a current circumstance for one to clearly evaluate specific adaptations. |
| Keywords: | Railway, Public Interest, Regime Change, Correlation, Subsidy-baseline |
| JEL: | C1 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129312 |
| By: | Mikołaj Czajkowski (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Wojciech Zawadzki (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Katarzyna Skrzypek (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Wiktor Budziński (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Milan Scasny (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; Charles University, The Environment Center) |
| Abstract: | Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3, 312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2, 588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1, 507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management. |
| Keywords: | Bathing water quality, Pathogens, Microbial contamination, Risk communication, Information treatments, Discrete choice experiment (DCE), Travel cost method (TCM), Recreation demand, Welfare measurement, Consumer surplus, Climate adaptation, Coastal health risks, Baltic Sea, Poland |
| JEL: | C93 C35 Q26 Q51 Q53 D91 I18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-22 |
| By: | Andersson, Julius J.; Atkinson, Giles |
| Abstract: | We present a simple model showing how income inequality and the income elasticity of demand jointly shape the tax progressivity of indirect taxes, with rising inequality increasing the regressivity of taxes on necessities. We test the model’s predictions by analyzing the Swedish carbon tax on transport fuel. We find that the tax becomes increasingly regressive over time, closely tracking rising income inequality. We also show that the relative incidence shifts from regressive to progressive when using annual expenditure rather than annual income as the welfare measure, as expenditure is more evenly distributed. A cross-country analysis of gasoline taxes in high-income nations further supports our findings, establishing a strong correlation between higher inequality and greater regressivity. Our model helps policymakers identify when complementary redistributive measures such as lump-sum transfers may become necessary. |
| Keywords: | tax progressivity; income inequality; gasoline taxation; carbon taxation |
| JEL: | H23 H24 D31 D63 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138449 |