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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Ruiwu Liu; Yangjian Zhu |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) require substantially longer refueling times than gasoline vehicles, which can generate severe congestion at charging stations when demand concentrates. We propose a two-stage allocation framework for EV charging networks. In Stage 1, a central coordinator determines station-level admission quotas to control worst-station delay using a queue-informed congestion metric. In Stage 2, given these quotas and feasibility constraints (e.g., reachability), the coordinator solves a utility-maximizing capacitated assignment to allocate EVs across stations. To keep Stage~2 tractable while capturing heterogeneous charging needs, we precompute each EV-station pair's optimal charging amount in closed form under a battery-capacity constraint and then solve a transportation/assignment problem. Finally, we introduce a reduced-form participation model to characterize adoption thresholds under network benefits, spillovers, and coordination costs. Numerical experiments illustrate substantial reductions in worst-case congestion with limited impact on average utility, and highlight scaling patterns as the number of stations increases. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.16202 |
| By: | Lee, Amy PhD; Volker, Jamey PhD; Handy, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requires lead agencies to evaluate the environmental impacts of major projects, including highway expansion projects, and to mitigate those impacts to the extent feasible. In 2013, SB 743 (Steinberg) changed how transportation impacts are evaluated by shifting the performance measure from traffic delay to vehicle miles traveled (VMT), a measure of total driving. This change reflected evidence that the metric of VMT captures the influence that transportation projects have on driving behavior and its related environmental and social impacts, such as greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, safety, and public health. How have lead agencies implemented the requirement to analyze and mitigate VMT induced by highway expansion projects? To better understand how SB 743 has affected highway expansion projects in practice, we reviewed state regulation and guidance and evaluated the Environmental Impact Reports (EIRs) for the six highway expansion projects that have started the environmental review process since the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) adopted guidance in 2020 to implement SB 743. In this brief, we focus on how lead agencies propose to mitigate any increases in VMT from each of the six highway expansion projects, including the measures proposed, the extent to which mitigation reduces VMT, the cost associated with mitigation, and sources of funding for VMT mitigation. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0r61q59c |
| By: | Chowdhry, Sonali; Heiland, Inga; Mahlkow, Hendrik |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights an underexplored margin of heterogeneity that shapes resilience to disruptions in global shipping - the differential reliance of countries and sectors on specific categories of vessels. We combine US bills of lading records with ship registry and AIS-based port call data to document new stylized facts on vessel deployment, including switching patterns across ships, country specialization in shipbuilding, and the composition of fleets serving different country pairs. Exploiting the 2016 Panama Canal expansion as a quasi-natural experiment, we further provide the first direct estimate for the elasticity of substitution between vessels across size classes. Building on the empirical evidence, we then introduce endogenous vessel choice into a quantitative general equilibrium trade model that features multiple transport modes and a global market for shipping services. The model allows us to quantify the trade and welfare effects of two recent policy proposals that target specific types, namely, fees for Chinese-built vessels entering US ports and the inclusion of the maritime transport sector in the EU Emission Trading System. |
| Keywords: | Maritime transport, Quantitative general equilibrium trade models, EU ETS, Port fees |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F52 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:339611 |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; De Iudicibus, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Governments increasingly rely on purchase incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles to address both climate change and local air pollution. This paper provides new causal evidence on the environmental effectiveness of sub-national vehicle purchase incentives in Italy. Exploiting rich spatial and temporal variation in regional and municipal policies across Italian provincial capitals between 2013 and 2023, we show that the introduction of purchase incentives leads to statistically and economically significant reductions in traffic-related air pollution, measured by maximum annual concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). These effects are robust across multiple specifications and placebo tests and are primarily driven by direct cash subsidies, while purely fiscal incentives do not generate detectable improvements in air quality. To uncover the underlying mechanisms, we document that incentives substantially increase the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles and accelerate the phase-out of diesel cars, having an effect on investment in active mobility infrastructure and on changes in selected forms of electric micro-mobility. A decomposition exercise shows that technological substitution within the vehicle fleet is the main channel through which incentives reduce NO2 concentrations. Overall, the results highlight the importance of incentive design and provide policy-relevant evidence on the role of demand-side policies in improving urban air quality. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle purchase incentives, Urban air pollution, Electric and hybrid vehicles, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | H2 H20 Q4 |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127835 |
| By: | Jan K. Brueckner; Ricardo Flores-Fillol |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates passenger benefits from airline flight frequencies, recognizing that this task is less straightforward for connecting trips than for nonstop travel. In doing so, the paper joins Yuan and Jia (2026) as the only other study in the literature that confronts the problem of creating a flight-frequency measure for connecting trips. With airlines providing a crucial service in modern economies, the ability to measure the quality of that service is essential, not just for the nonstop service that links larger cities but for the connecting trips involving smaller endpoints that many passengers rely on. |
| Keywords: | flight frequency, benefits, airline service quality |
| JEL: | L15 L93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12571 |
| By: | Meng, Joshua PhD; Kurzhanskiy, Alex PhD |
| Abstract: | This report presents a set of proposed open data specifications for the development of an Operational Data Portal (ODP) to support customer-oriented “smart” apps for travelers with special needs, particularly seniors and people with disabilities, in Contra Costa County. The ODP would aggregate and organize data from various mobility service providers, individual riders, and community organizations to be accessed by software developers of digital trip planners, trip booking and scheduling services, passenger feedback mechanisms, and service performance evaluation tools. The report concludes that the establishment of an open data platform along with supporting applications will improve the riderexperience and facilitate operating efficiency and coordination among accessible transit providers. It recommends further research to align the proposed data specifications with emerging transportation data standards, enhance the integration of unstructured data, and develop inclusive systems for customers with limited access to smart devices. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Data management, Open data, Specifications, Transit data, Traveler information and communication systems, Accessibility, Persons with Disabilities, Public transit |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9tk5f1w7 |
| By: | Sehara, Arusi (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This thesis studies the economic coordination barriers that constrain the decarbonisation of maritime transport. Ships powered by alternative fuels lack refuelling infrastructure, creating a coordination failure that locks the sector into carbon dependence. We develop a spatial framework integrating a constrained optimisation problem with global vessel movement data to quantify the minimum infrastructure required to sustain existing trade flows under alternative-fuel adoption. Using AIS observations, tanker and cargo movements are reconstructed into directed networks, each coarsened into roughly 100 high-traffic hubs, and subsequently merged into a unified network for optimisation. The model is solved under two rollout strategies: an optimal rollout, which minimises infrastructure at each adoption level, and a monotone rollout, which captures the irreversibility of infrastructure investments by enforcing cumulative path dependence. Results show (1) geographically uneven adoption, with the earliest hub activations concentrated in East Asia and later entry elsewhere ; (2) cargo vessels transition to alternative fuels earlier than tankers ; and (3) outcomes are consistent across rollout strategies |
| Keywords: | Maritime decarbonisation ; Alternative fuels ; Infrastructure planning ; Network optimisation ; Coordination failure ; Spatial economics. JEL classifications: Q54 ; Q55 ; L91 ; R42 ; Q42 ; C61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:96 |
| By: | Gómez-Lobo, Andrés; Price, Juan José |
| Abstract: | At the end of 2014 a “Green” registration tax on new vehicle sales was introduced in Chile. In this paper we use a novel vehicle-based dataset to estimate the impact of this policy on average nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission rates of new vehicle purchases. We analyze two impact channels: substitution from diesel to gasoline vehicles and substitution from more to less polluting diesel vehicles. We rely on a difference-in-differences approach and focus our analysis on pickup trucks. Our identification strategy benefits from the fact that for this type of vehicle the policy defined a taxable and exempt group. In addition, the tax was increased on two occasions after its implementation, hence we can estimate its impact as a function of treatment intensity. Our findings suggest that an average tax that reached 7-8% of the sale price resulted in an overall increase of 4 to 8 percentage points in the probability of purchasing a gasoline over a diesel pickup truck for affected purchases, reducing the average emission rate for this class of vehicles. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that within the diesel pickup group the tax may have induced a substitution to a cleaner model once it became available in the market. The policy's aggregate environmental impact is small since a large fraction of the most polluting vehicles are exempt. Finally, we do not find evidence of an increase in CO2 emissions as a result of the tax. Policy recommendations are discussed. |
| Keywords: | emisiones;Registration Tax |
| JEL: | Q52 H23 R48 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14544 |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Caravaggio, Nicola; Intini, Mario; Resce, Giuliano |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates whether the Italian National Strategy for Inner Areas (SNAI) has improved accessibility to essential services in peripheral municipalities. Introduced in 2014, the SNAI targets territories characterized by demographic decline and limited access to key services such as schools, healthcare, and transport infrastructure. Using real-time travel data from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and Tom Tom, we develop a replicable framework to monitor driving times to service hubs for more than 7, 600 Italian municipalities. Our tool replicates the methodology used to identify Inner Areas during the second programming cycle of the SNAI (2021-2027). Applying this framework, we update the classification of Inner Areas for 2025 and document a 20% increase in their number compared with the latest official classification. We then estimate a two-period Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model combined with Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to compare municipalities targeted by the strategy with similar non-targeted areas. The results suggest that municipalities included in the SNAI did not experience improvements in accessibility during the period considered. On average, treated municipalities display a modest increase in travel times of about 2.4 minutes relative to comparable Inner Areas not included in the strategy. These findings indicate that, while the SNAI may contribute to broader territorial development objectives, measurable improvements in road accessibility remain limited. |
| Keywords: | place-based policy, inner areas, policy evaluation, Italy |
| JEL: | C31 O18 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp26103 |
| By: | Ertian Chen; Lichao Chen; Lars Nesheim |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading System is set to substantially increase the effective carbon price faced by airlines. To quantify the impact of this carbon regulation on the European airline industry, we estimate a two-stage model of airline competition with endogenous route entry, flight frequencies, and pricing using European data on market shares and prices. Counterfactual simulations reveal that the impacts of carbon pricing are highly asymmetric across carrier types and market segments. Consumer surplus declines by up to 25% overall, with medium-haul markets bearing the brunt at up to 90%, while short-haul markets experience positive net welfare gains (including carbon revenue and the social value of avoided emissions) as airlines reallocate capacity toward shorter routes. We find that airline profits decline by 8-45% across scenarios, while carbon tax revenue of $0.9-3.1 billion and a social value of avoided CO2 emissions of $0.5-1.4 billion partially offset the welfare losses. We also show that a hypothetical Wizz Air-Ryanair merger primarily benefits firm profits through network expansion synergies. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.27724 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | Time-of-use pricing is promoted to manage demand at public EV charging stations, yet its effectiveness depends on short run flexibility and local constraints. Using station by day by hour data from Shenzhen and Amsterdam, we estimate intraday price responsiveness on two margins, whether charging occurs in a station hour and, conditional on charging, delivered energy and occupancy time. High dimensional fixed effects absorb station by day demand shocks and hour of week patterns, so identification relies on within station, within day price variation under scheduled tariffs. Responses differ across cities. Shenzhen adjusts mainly through conditional intensity, whereas Amsterdam adjusts mainly through participation. Weather shifts responsiveness in opposite directions, with heat weakening responses in Shenzhen and rainfall strengthening participation responses in Amsterdam. Power upgrades typically outperform network densification except in transit-oriented areas. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29223 |
| By: | Paolo Costa (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Roberto Roson (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Martina Sartori (Universitas Mercatorum) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of transport and logistics costs as de facto "internal duties" within the European Union, highlighting their impact on the free movement of goods. While formal tariff barriers have been eliminated, frictional costs—arising from distance, infrastructure, and distribution inefficiencies—continue to erode competitiveness and constrain market integration. Using Eurostat COMEXT data and the GTAP social accounting matrix, intra-EU transport margins across six SITC categories and 27 member states are estimated. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation of a 50% reduction in intra-EU transport margins suggests aggregate welfare gains of approximately USD 63 billion annually, increased intra-European trade flows, and reduced extra-EU exchanges. The findings underscore the importance of addressing transport and logistics inefficiencies as a priority for EU economic policy, framing them as non-tariff barriers with substantial macroeconomic consequences. |
| Keywords: | European Union; Internal duties; Transport margins; Logistics costs; Non-tariff barriers; Intra-EU trade; COMEXT; GTAP; CGE modeling; Market integration; Distribution costs; Trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F15 R41 C68 L91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:13 |
| By: | Kumar Gautam, Santosh (University of Notre Dame); Shandal, Monica (University of California, Santa Cruz); Zucker, Ariel (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of rural road connectivity on economic and novel governance outcomes in the context of the world’s largest rural road program, India’s PMGSY. Using a novel village-level survey designed around PMGSY’s rollout, we exploit quasi-random variation in road placement to estimate causal effects of connectivity on agricultural and labor markets as well as governance and political connectivity. We find evidence that roads support market access, as local producer prices increase by 1.3 SD and agricultural outputs diversify. Despite the improved agricultural output prices and options, labor shifts away from agriculture to casual work, suggesting improved non-agricultural market access. Interestingly, increases in casual labor are almost exclusively local to the connected village, and we find a decrease of short- and medium-term migration by 0.8 SD. Additionally, road connectivity increases local state presence, with a 1.1 SD increase in an index of official government visits and a 0.9 SD increase in an index of political connectivity, and leads to higher wages on government construction projects and lower prices in government shops. Our findings show that road leads to more vibrant and diverse rural economies. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, governance, PMGSY, labor markets, migration, India |
| JEL: | J43 O12 O18 R23 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18468 |
| By: | Thomas Klitgaard |
| Abstract: | China has spent considerable government resources to develop advanced electric technology industries, such as those that produce electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels. These efforts have spilled over to international trade as improvements in price and quality have increased the global demand for these goods. One consequence is that passenger cars and batteries have been disproportionately large contributors to the rise in the country’s trade surplus in recent years. This has not been the case, though, for solar panels, as falling prices due to a supply glut pulled down export revenues despite higher volumes. |
| Keywords: | China; exports; green technology; electric vehicles; solar panels; lithium batteries; industrial policy; electrification |
| JEL: | F1 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:102920 |
| By: | Markiewicz, Zuzanna (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether the 2013 FAA First Officer Qualifications (1, 500-hour) rule reshaped competitive dynamics across U.S. legacy and regional carriers, measured by group-level mean changes in offered seat capacity relative to Mexican and Canadian carriers outside the rule’s jurisdiction. Triple-Difference and Difference-in-Differences models are estimated on an airport-pair–carrier–month–year-level data on passenger flights on bidirectional U.S.–Canada and U.S.–Mexico routes market from 2012 to 2014. On average, post-policy, the U.S. legacy–regional capacity gap in offered seats widened by 46% relative to the corresponding foreign legacy–regional gap. U.S. regional carriers reduced offered seats by 19% relative to foreign regional carriers, while U.S. legacy carriers increased offered seats by 34% relative to foreign legacy carriers. Overall, the safety-oriented tightening of pilot-qualification requirements appears to have produced unintended competitive spillovers with asymmetric effects, consistent with wage-sensitive U.S. regional airlines curtailing operations and larger-scale U.S. legacy carriers gaining market power. |
| Keywords: | 1, 500-hour rule ; pilot qualification requirements ; labour supply constraints ; airline competition ; regulatory asymmetry JEL classifications: L93 ; L51 ; L13 ; J44 ; R48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:97 |
| By: | Christoph Siemroth |
| Abstract: | A German ministry recently proposed a limit of at most one price increase per day for petrol stations. At what time should the price reset be allowed in order to lower price levels the most throughout the day? To answer this question, I infer the share of price-sensitive consumers for every hour of the day from German petrol station price data, based on a simple spatial-competition model. I focus on weekdays, which are the relevant target because commuter demand is less flexible than weekend demand. Hourly petrol station prices peak at 07:00 and bottom out at 19:00. Given the inferred composition of price-sensitivity throughout the day and hourly passenger-car traffic frequencies as a proxy for quantity, I evaluate every possible reset-hour of the new policy. The lowest traffic-weighted average price is achieved by an 11:00 reset. With this reset-hour, the resulting equilibrium price throughout the day is constant. This would lead to lower prices in the morning but higher prices in the evening, harming price-sensitive consumers but benefiting morning commuters and firms. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.18920 |
| By: | Mohamed Bouka; Moulaye Abdel Kader Ould Moulaye Ismail |
| Abstract: | Small, trade-dependent economies often exhibit limited maritime connectivity, yet empirical evidence on the structural configuration of their container systems remains limited. This study analyzes route concentration and node distributions in Mauritania's maritime container system during 2019-2022 using shipment-level data measured in forty-foot equivalent units (FFE). Routes, origin nodes, destination nodes, and industries are represented as FFE-weighted probability distributions, and concentration and divergence metrics are used to assess structural properties. The results show strong corridor concentration across the seven observed routes (HHI = 0.296), with the top three accounting for approximately 84% of total FFE. Node structures differ by direction: imports are associated with a highly concentrated set of destination nodes (HHI = 0.848), while exports originate from only two origin nodes (HHI = 0.567) and are distributed across a large number of destinations (HHI = 0.053). Industry distributions are more concentrated for exports (HHI = 0.352) than for imports (HHI = 0.096), with frozen fish and seafood accounting for more than 53% of export volume. Temporal analysis shows that route concentration remains stable over time (HHI ~ 0.293-0.303), while node distributions exhibit measurable variation, particularly for export destinations (JSD ~ 0.395) and import origins (JSD ~ 0.250). |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.25678 |
| By: | Arachchi, Suvan |
| Abstract: | Unexpected business closures in urban areas are a major issue, as it hurts jobs, weakens local economies, and can destabilize neighborhoods. This study finds out whether businesses located near subway stations in New York City had different closure rates compared to those farther away. Using Python-based spatial analysis, 496 stations were mapped against 44, 913 business licenses, and closure rates were calculated for businesses within a 0.25-mile radius of each station. Results show that closure rates were different across boroughs. The Bronx had 38.9%, Brooklyn had 37.6%, Manhattan had 34.0%, Queens had 33.0%, and Staten Island had 30.6%. Certain stations, like Beach 44 St, had particularly high closure rates, with Beach 44 St having a closure rate of 66.7%. These findings show that there are obvious geographic differences in business outcomes and suggest that transit accessibility interacts with broader urban economic factors. Supplementary code can be found here: https://github.com/Suvan9/-nyc-subway-bu siness-analysis |
| Date: | 2026–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:854tm_v2 |