|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Kaijing Ding; Lu Dai; Mark Hansen |
| Abstract: | This study provides a method to quantify the benefits of shifting passenger traffic from air to high-speed rail from the perspective of flight-delay cost reduction. We first estimate the number of flight reductions for airport origin-destination pairs based on the high-speed rail ridership forecasts provided in the California High-Speed Rail 2020 Business Plan, and then distribute these flight reductions to quarter-hour intervals. Lasso models are applied to estimate the impact of reduced queuing delays at SFO, LAX, and SAN on arrival delays at the national Core 29 airports. These delay reductions are then monetized using aircraft operating costs and the value of passenger time. We evaluate alternative airport-capacity and flight-schedule scenarios, as well as multiple percentiles of probabilistic high-speed rail ridership forecasts. The resulting estimates indicate flight-delay cost savings of $51-88 million in 2018 dollars in 2029 and $235-392 million in 2018 dollars in 2033. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.05636 |
| By: | Isaac Mann; David M. Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Standard transport appraisal treats fare regulation in isolation, ignoring how price signals reshape urban geography. We bridge regulatory practice and quantitative spatial economics by constructing a Quantitative Spatial Transport Model (QSTM) for Greater Sydney, endogenising household and firm locations in response to transport shocks. Our framework extends the canonical quantitative spatial model by endogenising commuter mode choice and internalising network externalities through road congestion and the Mohring effect. Evaluating three public transport pricing interventions, including zero-fare, flat-fare, and fare-cap policies, we find that free transit is welfare-suboptimal, driven largely by operator revenue losses. In our setting, distance-based fares provide a spatial price signal that helps internalise resource costs and discourage sprawl, a signal that uniform flat fares mute. The model demonstrates that allocative efficiency requires a higher user contribution, revealing that weekly fare caps function as implicit subsidies for long-distance commuters. Higher fares trigger a spatial reorganisation where residents centralise to minimise commuting costs and firms decentralise to access labour. Ultimately, efficient distance-based pricing promotes a compact residential form, encourages polycentric employment, and reduces operator resource costs. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative spatial models, Transport appraisal, Fare regulation, Agglomeration economies, Spatial general equilibrium, Urban economics |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-22 |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser |
| Abstract: | Will 21st century transportation innovations work against urban density, as the car did in the 20th century, or promote urban centralization, as the railroad did in the 19th century? Reducing the cost of commuting always reduces urban centralization in the classic Alonso-Muth-Mills model but that result reverses if the number of trips is endogenous and the elasticity of trips with respect to their costs is greater than one. That elasticity may have increased over time, as an increasing share of daily trips seems to be discretionary and city centers increasingly provide entertainment. This paper asks discusses the urbanizing effects of four trends in transportation technology: shared mobility (such as Uber), autonomy (such as Waymo), vertical travel and green mobility, as provided by bike lane. As people spend more time travelling in denser, large areas, innovations that reduce the time cost of travel, such as autonomous cars, seem likely to complement urban living, as long as they don’t excessively increase traffic. Sharing is also easier in big cities, so technologies that involve sharing are also centripetal. The other trends seem less likely to have major effects. Moreover, the forces of inertia, which include both regulation and legacy infrastructure, are likely to limit the impact of any new technologies in Europe and the U.S., so that the biggest changes in urban form are likely to appear in east Asia and the developing world. |
| JEL: | O33 R00 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35718 |
| By: | Zhaohan Wang; Mohsen Ramezani; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a two-dimensional trajectory controller (2DTC) for autonomous vehicles (AVs) operating on a lane-free freeway. Without relying on inter-vehicle communication, each AV independently determines its acceleration and steering in real time. The 2DTC is formulated as a receding-horizon optimal control problem (OCP) with nonlinear dynamics, costs, and constraints. The OCP is discretized and solved using the continuation/GMRES method to obtain the optimal control values. Strategic interactions between AVs are captured through a level-k game theory model. The performance of the 2DTC is evaluated through both microscopic and macroscopic analyses. Microscopic simulations show that the generated trajectories are smooth and compliant with constraints, while macroscopic measures are used to construct fundamental diagrams, demonstrating capacity levels exceeding those typically reported for human-driven freeway traffic. Further experiments show that higher reasoning depth yields reductions in travel time, while increased vehicle size heterogeneity improves traffic efficiency by enabling more compact packing in lane-free flow. In addition, more homogeneous vehicle speeds tend to result in higher average speed, thereby improving efficiency. Comparisons with a similarly defined lane-based controller reveal that lane-free traffic is less efficient when vehicle sizes are uniform but becomes more efficient once size heterogeneity exceeds a critical threshold of roughly 22%. |
| Keywords: | Automated vehicle, Trajectory planning, Model predictive control, Nonlinear control, Game theory |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2027 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2027-01 |
| By: | Massoni, Hubert |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Vulnerability is prominent at maritime ports, where tropical cyclones frequently halt operations and force firms to adapt to transportation disruptions. I quantify these responses by linking high-frequency maritime shipment data to tropical cyclone tracks. Exposure to tropical cyclones temporarily disrupts port activities (1–2 weeks), prompting firms to reroute shipments to alternative ports (1–4 months), but this adaptation mechanism is insufficient to prevent persistent declines in firm-to-firm trade. To evaluate the general-equilibrium implications of these weather disruptions, I develop a quantitative model of spatial production networks with endogenous routing. Port-level transportation costs increase with traffic (congestion) and cyclone risk, and decrease with port capacity (scale). Investigating future climate hazards to the transportation network, I find that welfare effects are primarily distributional; congestion forces at ports account for most of the general-equilibrium absorption of the climate shock, while firm-level rerouting has limited effectiveness. To translate evidence into policy, I derive analytical sufficient statistics for evaluating and targeting future port investments in light of climate change. Allocation rules that ignore weather risk and firms' adaptive responses redistribute investment across ports, with distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | International trade; transportation; extreme weather; climate change; port infrastructure; production networks |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2602 |
| By: | Gabriel Facundes Monteiro; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions worldwide, with most automobile pollution coming from vehicles older than 10 years. Yet, many policies discourage the removal of older vehicles from the fleet, with potential consequences for pollution and public health. This paper examines an equity-motivated anti-scrappage policy in Brazil using a border-pair design that exploits state variation in the age thresholds for vehicle ownership tax exemptions. Using municipality-level vehicle registration data from 2013-2020, we find that lower exemption age thresholds increase the average fleet age by up to one year, as they encourage owners to retain vehicles until they qualify for tax exemptions. Using fleet- and satellite-based estimates of pollution and administrative health data, we show that these policies increase on-road CO2 emissions per capita by up to 23% and PM2.5 concentrations by 4%, while deteriorating infant health outcomes. Leveraging state reforms that raised exemption ages, we find evidence that incumbents face greater electoral penalties wherever a greater share of the vehicle fleet re-enters the tax base, consistent with a “political environmental trap.” Within an MVPF framework, we find that lowering the exemption age by five years generates a net welfare loss of $0.78 for every $1 of forgone government revenue. |
| JEL: | H23 I18 Q53 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35713 |
| By: | Darr, Justin |
| Abstract: | The UC Davis Campus Travel Survey is an annual survey led by Transportation Services (TS)—formerly known as Transportation and Parking Services (TAPS)—and the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis). It collects a rich set of data about travel to the UC Davis campus, demographics, and attitudes toward travel. The 2024-25 survey collected data from 3, 962 people affiliated with UC Davis about their travel to campus during October and November 2024. It used a stratified random sampling method with the intent to gather a representative sample of the campus population. About 11 percent of those invited responded to this year's survey. For the statistics presented throughout this report, the responses are weighted by campus role (freshman, sophomore, junior, senior, Master’s student, PhD student, faculty, and staff) and gender, so that the proportion of respondents in each group reflects their proportion in the campus population. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9xx81349 |
| By: | Meryam Amarir |
| Abstract: | Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics infrastructure capable of better withstanding shocks. In this context, corridors are no longer merely transport routes but also instruments of economic security and competitiveness. This shift opens up new prospects for Africa’s Atlantic façade. Thanks to its geographical position, the gradual modernization of its port infrastructure, and the development of regional cooperation initiatives, Africa’s Atlantic façade has several assets that could strengthen its role within international trade networks. However, this opportunity will depend on states’ ability to improve connectivity between existing infrastructure, deepen cooperation, and build more integrated logistics networks. Africa’s Atlantic façade could thus emerge as an area that contributes to strengthening the resilience of global connectivity chains. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb46_26_2 |
| By: | Victor Petroff (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon); Gabriel Figueiredo de Oliveira (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of container ports' positions within the global maritime network – particularly their degree of centrality – on port efficiency. Using data from 117 maritime routes in 2010, we analyze 85 international ports located in Asia, Europe, and North America. Several indicators derived from network theory, including centrality, clustering, and the maximum distance of a direct maritime link - which captures a port's ability to serve distant markets - are incorporated into a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model following the double bootstrap methodology proposed by Simar and Wilson (2007). The results reveal significant regional disparities in port efficiency, with Asian ports – especially those in China – achieving the highest performance levels. The second-stage analysis shows that both centrality and clustering have a positive effect on port efficiency. This latter effect is particularly evident among a North American port community benefiting from shipping lines' service design choices. Overall, the findings underscore not only the importance of port positioning within the global maritime network but also the influence of port community structures on port efficiency. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude analyse l'impact de la position des ports à conteneurs dans le réseau maritime mondial, notamment leur degré de centralité, sur leur efficience portuaire. En utilisant les données de 117 routes maritimes en 2010, nous analysons 85 ports internationaux en Asie, en Europe et en Amérique du Nord. Plusieurs indicateurs de la théorie des réseaux, tels que la centralité, le coefficient de regroupement (clustering) et la distance maximale d'une liaison directe mesurant la capacité d'un port à desservir des marchés lointains, sont intégrés dans un modèle d'analyse par enveloppement des données (DEA) à deux étapes, suivant la méthode du double rééchantillonnage de Simar et Wilson (2007). Nos résultats révèlent d'importantes disparités régionales en matière d'efficience portuaire, les ports d'Asie - en particulier ceux de Chine - affichant les niveaux de performance les plus élevés. La deuxième étape du modèle montre que la centralité et le clustering exercent une influence positive sur l'efficience. Ce deuxième effet est spécifique à une communauté portuaire nord-américaine qui bénéficie des choix de conception de services des compagnies maritimes. Ces résultats mettent en évidence non seulement le rôle du positionnement des ports dans l'efficience portuaire, mais également le rôle de la communauté portuaire. |
| Keywords: | Network Theory, Centrality, Efficiency, Ports, Data Envelopment Analysis, Modèle par enveloppement des données, Centralité, Théorie des réseaux, Efficience |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05120552 |
| By: | Natalia Vechiu (UB - Université de Bordeaux, ESTIA - ESTIA - Institute of technology, ESTIA-Recherche - ESTIA - ESTIA - Institute of technology, CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Manish Kumar Sharma (MIT-WPU - Dr. Vishwanath Karad MIT World Peace University [Pune], IIT Kharagpur - Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the determinants of maritime connections, with a special focus on the importance of foreign direct investments (FDI) in improving maritime transportation networks and in restructuring them. We are also interested in how China, in particular, impacts countries' integration to global supply chains through maritime transportation. We work on a heterogeneous panel of bilateral maritime connections as measured by UNCTAD's bilateral liner shipping connectivity index, and we find that FDIs between two partner countries do not significantly impact their maritime connection. However, we do find that Chinese FDIs in countries concerned by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reinforce bilateral maritime connections between countries, in general, be they BRI countries or not. The Chinese influence is also significant via their maritime presence: maritime connections between two countries are significantly higher when host countries have strong maritime ties to China. A deeper analysis through several interaction effects also shows the Chinese influence is conditional on host countries' attributes. For instance, a maritime connection with China is more beneficial to developing/poorer host countries, who see their connection to origin countries increase more as compared to developed/richer host countries. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, gravity equations, maritime transportation |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05732203 |
| By: | Mohamed Kourouma (Université de Kindia); Assaendi Fahad (Université de Kindia) |
| Abstract: | Kindia, in the Republic of Guinea, is a cosmopolitan city where agricultural and commercial activities are very varied and developed. Several modes of transportation are used to meet the multiple mobility needs. Motorcycle taxis remain the most used (they account for about 70% of urban mobility). The present study focused on a statistical survey of 143 motorcycle taxi drivers and aimed to objectively analyze the factors that significantly influence the payment of the municipal tax by motorcycle taxi drivers. A quantitative approach using the binary logistic model was adopted to analyze the variables that have a significant impact on the payment of the municipal tax. The dependent variable was the consent to pay the municipal tax. The results obtained show, indeed, that the variables 'driver's age, ' 'daily income, ' 'seniority, ' and 'census' have a significant and positive impact on the payment of the municipal tax by drivers. |
| Abstract: | Kindia, en République de Guinée, est une ville cosmopolite où les activités agricoles et commerciales sont très variées et développées. Plusieurs modes de transport sont pratiqués pour satisfaire les multiples besoins de mobilité. Les taxis-motos demeurent les plus utilisés (ils règlent environ 70% de la mobilité urbaine). La présente étude a été axée sur une enquête statistique auprès de 143 conducteurs des taxis motos et visait à analyser de façon objective les facteurs qui influencent significativement le paiement de la taxe communale par les taxis-motards. On a adopté une approche quantitative utilisant le modèle logistique binaire pour analyser les variables qui ont un impact significatif sur le paiement de la taxe communale. La variable dépendante était le consentement du paiement de la taxe communale. Les résultats obtenus montrent, en effet, que les variables « âge du conducteur », «recettes journalières », « ancienneté » et « recensement » ont un impact significatif et positif sur le paiement de la taxe communale par les conducteurs. |
| Keywords: | motorcycle taxi, binary logistic model, local development, municipal tax, Kindia, taxe communale, développement local, modèle logistique binaire, taxi-moto |
| Date: | 2026–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05695567 |
| By: | David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Traffic signal controllers timestamp the first pedestrian actuation that requests service, but they do not count the people arriving before the Walk indication. We test a theory-based estimator that treats the time from flashing-don't-walk onset to first actuation as a censored waiting-time observation from a Poisson arrival-event process. The inferred event count and delay are calibrated separately to observed pedestrian counts and observed delay. Fourteen manually observed cases give mean adjustments of 2.202 for counts and 2.176 for delay assuming 100% compliance. A separate 24-leg-session video dataset gives 2.203 and 2.233. Held-out count errors are 23.9% and 22.4%. Observed behavior reduces delay from 16.606 to 15.996 pedestrian-hours in the manual data and from 12.934 to 8.522 hours in video. |
| Keywords: | pedestrian counts, pedestrian actuation, Poisson arrivals, signal delay, noncompliance, traffic signals, SCATS, Sydney |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-21 |