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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Yang Gao; Andres Fielbaum; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | The allocation of road space among different transport modes has long been a key issue in urban planning, yet it lacks solid theoretical foundations. This paper investigates the optimal allocation of road space among three transport modes: private vehicles, buses, and bicycles, for overall system performance. The travel time for each mode is determined based on travel speed derived from fundamental diagrams (FDs). Changes in bus travel time are the least sensitive to excessive demand, as the number of buses is only indirectly affected by demand. A mode choice equilibrium framework based on deterministic user equilibrium is proposed to handle cases with and without heterogeneity in passengers’ waiting time thresholds for buses. Analytical and numerical results reveal that the optimal road space allocation strategy depends on the demand level. Without considering passenger heterogeneity, the optimal strategy is a corner solution - allocating all road space to one of the three transport modes. When heterogeneity is considered, low and medium demand levels result in all space being allocated to private vehicles and bicycles, respectively. For high demand levels, the optimal solution is a non-corner solution, where road space is allocated to both buses and bicycles, and the proportion allocated to buses increases as demand rises. The initial road space share for buses significantly influences system performance. Crucially, this induces either a virtuous or vicious cycle that impacts public transport usage. The threshold for this effect is around 0.4, meaning that allocating approximately half of the road space to buses is critical, and this threshold decreases as demand increases. This study highlights the importance of tailoring road space allocation strategies to demand levels to maximize transport efficiency. |
| Keywords: | transportation, public transport, road transport |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-02 |
| By: | Nosan Klara; Aycart Javier (European Commission - JRC); Tomasi Claudio; Ibáñez Juan Nicolás (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) sets out minimum requirements for the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure across EU Member States along the Trans-European Transport (TEN-T) road network. This report outlines the methods and algorithms developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to monitor the deployment of alternative fuels recharging infrastructure, such as electric vehicle charging points and hydrogen refuelling stations, along TEN-T. The result of the methodology is a Gap Analysis Tool, which quantifies the compliance of EU Member States with the distance-based coverage targets along TEN-T set out in AFIR. The tool first combines the data available from the TENtec Information System with the high-resolution road transport network dataset TomTom MultiNet, to build a routable representation of TEN-T. The detailed topology for road segments and the information on traffic directions, traffic restrictions and travel speeds allow to simulate real-world driving conditions on the TEN-T road network, as well as driving between recharging points and the TEN-T network. In a second step, the tool incorporates a high-resolution charging infrastructure dataset into the transport network model built, to assess the coverage of the network by the charging infrastructure. The report includes three case studies on the results of the Gap Analysis Tool, applied to assess the compliance with different AFIR targets for light-duty electric vehicles along the TEN-T comprehensive road network and the TEN-T core road network, as well as to identify eligibility requirements as part of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Facility (AFIF). Through extensive precomputation and customisable parametrisation, the Gap Analysis Tool ensures computational efficiency while enabling comprehensive scenario analysis and customisable parametrisation, to align with the AFIR targets under evaluation. Built on high-resolution data sources, it supports realistic driving modelling, enhancing the accuracy of policy assessments. The Gap Analysis Tool is the result of a collaboration under the administrative agreement between DG MOVE and the JRC, entitled ""Analysis of the Deployment of Alternative Fuels Infrastructure in the EU Based on High-Resolution Transport Networks"" (AFIRNET)." |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc144411 |
| By: | Zhao, Jingyuan; Fulton, Lewis |
| Abstract: | This report presents a comparative assessment of seven zero-emission vehicle and near-zero-emission pathways for heavy-duty freight applications: battery fast charging, battery swapping, catenary electric road systems, inductive electric road systems, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2ICEVs), and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles equipped with carbon capture and storage (ICEV-CCS). To enable a consistent system-level comparison, we develop a unified techno-economic modeling framework, SHIFT (Systemic Heavy-duty Infrastructure Framework for Transition), which quantifies and contrasts these pathways across multiple key performance indicators, including fuel cost, energy efficiency, levelized system cost, and levelized cost of transport, using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation framework with bounded techno-economic parameter sampling. The simulations incorporate variations in fleet size, electricity pricing, infrastructure costs, and system efficiencies, generating 10, 080 stochastic realizations across technologies, duty cycles, and energy supply configurations. The analysis covers three representative freight applications: short-haul, regional-haul, and long-haul trucking, capturing duty-cycle-specific infrastructure and operational trade-offs. The results suggest that in the early deployment years (e.g., 2030), battery swapping and fast charging show greater potential to achieve lower levelized system costs under small-scale deployment conditions, primarily due to lower capital intensity and better scalability at low fleet utilization. In contrast, electric road systems require substantial initial infrastructure investment but demonstrate strong scalability in high-throughput freight corridors. Among these systems, catenary electric road systems become increasingly favorable for densely trafficked long-haul corridors by 2040, particularly when infrastructure is shared across large aggregated fleets. FCEVs remain economically challenging during early deployment phases, particularly at small scale, due to both vehicle and infrastructure costs. Their competitiveness improves primarily under conditions of rapid scale-up of hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure, higher station utilization, and access to low-cost renewable hydrogen enabled by favorable supply-chain configurations. H2ICEVs provide a transitional alternative by leveraging shared hydrogen refueling infrastructure while requiring lower vehicle capital costs, although their overall efficiency remains lower than that of fuel cell powertrains. More broadly, the long-term viability of hydrogen-based trucking depends critically on the evolution of the hydrogen supply system, with economics improving as low-cost hydrogen from off-grid renewable resources and high-utilization pipeline delivery networks become available. ICEVs equipped with CCS, operating on diesel fuel, represent a conditional decarbonization pathway toward near-zero-emission performance by reducing tailpipe CO2 emissions through on-board carbon capture. However, residual combustion emissions and incomplete capture prevent full zero-emission performance. Overall, these findings aim to offer strategic insights for transportation agencies, utilities, and industry stakeholders, supporting cost-effective infrastructure deployment, resilient energy planning, and targeted policy interventions to accelerate the transition to sustainable freight systems. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, zero-emission vehicles, heavy-duty, fast charging, swapping, catenary, inductive, hydrogen, electric road, levelized system cost, energy efficiency, well-to-wheel, infrastructure, policy, trucks |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1s30n0rf |
| By: | Mengying Cui; Lijie Yu; Zhe Dai; Ang Ji; Keyue Liu; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This study conducts a line-based accessibility analysis of high-speed railway (HSR) network expansion in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration of China based on a multi-modal inter-city network. We propose an improved accessibility indicator that integrates opportunities and transport networks from neighboring regions, overcoming the artificial inequities inherent in traditional methods that restrict destination and route selections to rigid study area boundaries. The results reveal that the HSR network in the study area is still in the growth phase, with accessibility gains following an S-shaped trajectory, and has not yet reached maturity. Future investments are expected to sustain improvements in accessibility and spatial equity. More importantly, the operational sequence of HSR lines is less significant than their individual contributions to accessibility and equity. This implies few, if any, synergies between the HSR lines and emphasizes the importance of strategic line placement over construction order in fostering efficient and equitable regional connections, particularly in emerging HSR networks. |
| Keywords: | transportation, accessibility, public transport, transport networks |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-01 |
| By: | Whelan, Isabelle; Luiu, Carlo; Pope, Francis D. |
| Abstract: | In the UK, the transport sector is a major contributor to air pollution, and associated pollution remains one of the most serious environmental risks to public health. As cities transition to more sustainable transport systems, gaining public support for measures that restrict car use and encourage modal shift to alternative modes remains a key challenge. Understanding public attitudes is crucial for creating policies that are not only effective but also socially acceptable. This study examines how air quality perceptions and environmental attitudes shape support for clean air and sustainable transport interventions in Birmingham, UK. A mixed methods approach was employed, combining an assessment of local air quality trends with a survey of 176 residents to capture their attitudinal, behavioural and contextual factors at play. The findings show high levels of concern about local air quality and support for enabling investments in public transport and active travel infrastructure. However, persistent motonormative attitudes and polarisation around restrictive policies such as congestion charges and traffic filtering schemes reveal potential social and political challenges of reducing car dependency. These patterns highlight the importance of equitable policy design, clearer public communication, and long term efforts to shift mobility norms. Overall, the findings indicate that reducing traffic-related emissions in Birmingham will require an effective coordinated strategy integrating infrastructure investment, affordability improvements, enhanced safety, and cultural change to support sustainable travel behaviours. |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7fv5g_v1 |
| By: | Aditya Saxena; Deepjyoti Das; Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Keywords: Urban freight Crowd shipping Willingness to participate User participation Personality trait ICLV model This study investigates the determinants of willingness to participate in crowd shipping (WTP-CS) for the working population within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. It explores socioeconomic factors, personality traits, and travel correlates to WTP-CS by testing an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) modeling framework. Four conclusions are drawn. First, longer travel times and higher costs diminish WTP-CS, while economic incentives (e.g., free Wi-Fi services) are positively associated with WTP-CS. Second, lower-income individuals are positively inclined toward crowd shipping, while females and older individuals display less inclination toward crowd shipping. Third, increasing the number of services offered by crowd shippers nega tively affects WTP-CS. Fourth, individuals with higher levels of the openness personality trait exhibit a positive inclination toward WTP-CS, whereas those with higher conscientiousness tend to exhibit a more reserved attitude toward WTP-CS. The findings emphasize the role of individual traits in shaping participation behaviors in crowd shipping initiatives, and in contrast to most existing crowd shipping studies that focus on users or developedcountry contexts, provide new evidence on supply-side participation among working commuters in emerging markets in a less-studied region. |
| Keywords: | transportation, road transport, freight transport |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-11 |
| By: | Stuart Mills; David M. Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use Sydney as a case study to reassess past and proposed rail lines through an accessibilitybased appraisal framework. We estimate changes in job accessibility under alternative network configurations and monetise those changes using land-value uplift implied by previously estimated Sydney hedonic models. We treat this land-value uplift measure as a partial indicator of capitalised accessibility benefits, rather than a full substitute for conventional cost–benefit analysis. We review Bradfield’s 1916 heavy-rail proposal, the 1974 Sydney Area Transportation Study (SATS), the 2001 Long Term Strategy for Rail, and Sydney Metro 2056 proposals, and we also examine two revised heavy-rail or metro routes and several light-rail options. Costs are benchmarked from recent Sydney and international projects, and benefit/cost ratios are reported under multiple discount rates. The results identify several historical and revised alignments that perform well under this access-based land-value metric, while also showing the importance of cost assumptions and the interpretation of land-value uplift in policy appraisal. |
| Keywords: | transportation, accessibility, public transport, transport networks |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-15 |
| By: | Alireza Soltani; David M. Levinson; Mohsen Ramezani (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel approach for managing autonomous vehicles at signal-free intersections through a Communication-free Distributed Control Algorithm (CfDCA). Unlike centralized systems or communication-based decentralized methods, CfDCA relies solely on onboard sensors and in-vehicle decision-making to ensure efficient and collision-free navigation. The algorithm formulates intersection management as a distributed optimization problem with demonstrated safety logics and robustness to measurement errors. The algorithm combines a dynamic resource acquisition graph with a refined priority function and an adaptive tolerance mechanism to ensure efficient performance under varying traffic conditions. A stochastic tiebreaking mechanism is proposed to handle rare cases of identical priorities, while deadlock prevention is guaranteed through strict priority ordering. Simulation experiments demonstrate that CfDCA reduces average delay and queue length and is able to achieve throughput higher than actuated signalized intersections and outperforms a first-come-first-served baseline in delay reduction. Additionally, the algorithm’s distributed design offers scalability and eliminates dependency on communication infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | transportation, road transport, automated vehicles |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2025-10 |
| By: | Wenyang Hao; Yixin Fang; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | User-organized Pre-pooled Ride-hailing (UPR) is a user-coordinated form of shared mobility that layers social media coordination on top of commercial ride-hailing within bounded trust-based communities (e.g., campuses, workplaces, or residential compounds). We designed a comprehensive survey with 24 choice scenarios and integrated sociodemographic, revealed-behavior, and attitudinal measures including environmental perceptions, then estimated mixed logit models for all respondents and for organizers versus followers. UPR is most competitive for longer, daytime trips and for first-/last-mile access to metro hubs, offering a lower per-person cost than solo ridehailing and faster door-to-door travel than public transport. UPR choice is negatively associated with ride-hailing and platform ride-pooling use, implying substitution. Climate-mitigation beliefs increase UPR choice probabilities, while stronger trust requirements and privacy concerns constrain uptake. The findings highlight how environmental perceptions and community trust jointly shape decentralized pooling and its potential role as a low-impact complement to transit in fringe areas. |
| Keywords: | transportation |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-14 |
| By: | Wenyang Hao; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | A heterogeneous ensemble method combines multiple models to improve predictive accuracy, robustness, and generalizability compared to any individual model. In this paper, we introduce a novel Baggingenhanced Stacking Heterogeneous Ensemble Method (BESHEM) designed to capture the complexity and nonlinearity inherent in travel mode choice modeling. BESHEM integrates linear, tree-based, probabilistic, instance-based, and neural network-based models through nested bagging and stacking strategies, significantly outperforming conventional ensemble methods. We apply BESHEM to analyze User-organized Pre-pooled Ride-hailing (UPR), an emerging mobility mode among suburban university campus communities in China, which combines the flexibility of ride-hailing with the collaborative mechanisms and cost-effectiveness of traditional carpooling. We evaluate and compare BESHEM against twenty representative base models and four established ensemble strategies using a comprehensive dataset from UPR users and non-users, encompassing socioeconomic attributes, travel scenarios, and attitudinal perceptions. After comparing BESHEM with all benchmark ensembles and base models, we find that when the meta-learner is set to Extra Trees, BESHEM achieves the highest prediction accuracy among all competing methods. Feature importance analyses reveal that UPR adoption is positively influenced by previous ride-sharing experience, medium- to long-distance metro-integrated travel scenarios, and perceived safety among female users, while negatively affected by short-distance competitive travel alternatives and privacy concerns. |
| Keywords: | transportation, transport networks |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-03 |
| By: | Pearson, Lauren; de, Ana Luiza Santos Sa; Gerhard, Robyn; Abrahams, Jamie; Nosratzadeh, Hossein; Cumming, Toby; Beck, Ben |
| Abstract: | A sharp rise in fuel prices in March 2026 created a potential window for sustainable travel behaviour change in Australia. Yet who is positioned to change how they travel remains poorly understood. A population-representative online survey of 2, 177 Australian adults, conducted in April 2026, captured pre-crisis travel behaviour, mode shift considerations, and conditions supporting sustained change. Explainable machine learning (XGBoost, SHAP, supervised k-means clustering) identified amenable subgroups for walking, cycling, e-bikes, and public transport. Three quarters of respondents had changed or considered changing their travel behaviour. Walking was the most commonly adopted new mode (20%), and travel avoidance the most common adaptation (41%). Financial hardship and younger age were dominant predictors of amenability. Supervised clustering revealed three recurrent archetypes - financially pressured young adults, employed urban professionals, and regional residents lacking service access. Realising equitable sustainable travel outcomes requires transport systems offering affordable, safe alternatives to all population groups. |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hgx9d_v1 |
| By: | Fatemeh Janatabadi; Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | The interaction between regional access to opportunities and local density of residences has been central to questions of urban structure. However, real-world dynamics often diverge from idealized economic models, resulting in an “access-density mismatch.†This mismatch occurs when rapid population growth, inefficient transport systems, or uneven infrastructure investments lead to a disconnect between where people live and the access provided by the transport network. Access-density mismatch manifests in two primary forms: (i) high-density areas with lower-than-expected access, and (ii) low-density areas with higher-than-expected access. in contrast to idealized economic models, the “access-density mismatch†in practice manifests due to rapid population growth, inefficient transport systems, and uneven distribution of infrastructure investments. This mismatch primarily occurs in areas where population expansion outpaces transport infrastructure development, or where investments in transport infrastructure are designed for larger populations than currently present. Two mismatched outcomes are identified and observed: high-density areas with lowerthan-expected access and low-density areas with higher-than-expected access. Here, theoretical explanations and empirical investigations are conducted to: (i) examine the association between local density (gauged by walk access to population within five minutes) and regional access (gauged by transit and automobile access to employment opportunities within thirty minutes), and (ii) identify the accessdensity mismatch areas and their potential correlates at the census block level across the fifty most populated metropolitan areas in the United States. 33 Five insights are identified. 34 35 36 37 First, a statistically significant positive correlation exists between local density and regional access, with automobile access inducing higher residential density than transit access. A 1% increase in automobile access and transit access is respectively associated with a 0.5% and 0.34% increase in local density at the national level. 38 39 Second, more auto-oriented and less centralized metropolitan areas exhibit a weaker association between transit access and residential density. 40 41 Third, metropolitan areas where transit access-induced density is above the national average almost invariably exhibit a higher share of transit ridership for commuting. 1 Formatted: Highlight Formatted: Highlight Formatted: Highlight Formatted: Highlight Formatted: Highlight Formatted: Space After: 6 pt 1 2 3 4 Fourth, the spatial pattern of automobile access-density mismatch is similar to the spatial pattern of transit access-density mismatch. As one moves away from the central business district, regional access tends to surpass local density. This suggests that the current state of infrastructure can support a higher residential density, and there may be market opportunities for increased residential development. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Fifth, there is a difference in the magnitude of automobile and transit access-density mismatches. In city peripheries, the mismatch is greater for automobiles, with automobile access often exceeding the local density, leading to infrastructure under-utilization. In contrast, in core urban areas, transit access-density mismatch is more pronounced, with transit infrastructure lagging behind local residential density. This disparity reflects historical infrastructure investments, where automobile networks have expanded faster than transit systems, yet have not correspondingly increased residential density. |
| Keywords: | transportation, accessibility |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-04 |
| By: | David M. Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Transport policy asks causal questions, yet much transport research answers them with associative designs and then uses causal language. This perspective distinguishes causal, associational, and descriptive claims, offers norms and a checklist for aligning claims with identification, and illustrates these ideas with examples from pricing, operations, access, network evolution, and evaluation. |
| Keywords: | transportation |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-06 |
| By: | Haoang Li; Bahman Lahoorpoor; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We compile operating track lengths for US streetcar and interurban systems from the McGraw American Street Railway Investments Directories for 1894–1926, aggregated by state and by metro area, with a national total. The United States network reaches an observed maximum of 80, 660 km (50, 120 miles) in 1918, with a logistic asymptote of 84, 208 km, inflection year 1901, and R 2 = 0.89. We report cities and states by extent and timing, and show that most city and state series follow logistic S-curves. |
| Keywords: | transportation, public transport |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-08 |
| By: | Zhuopeng Xie; Mohsen Ramezani; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Keywords: platooning longitudinal dynamics traffic flow theory traffic simulation autonomous driving This research investigates platoon formation and retention in various traffic conditions using five well-known car-following models, implemented as controllers on reduced-scale mobile robots (RSMRs). Our study moves beyond traditional simulations by directly applying these controllers in a controlled physical environment to observe and measure the dynamic interactions within a platoon of RSMRs. We adapted the Gazis-Herman-Rothery (GHR) model, Gipps model, intelligent driver model (IDM), proportional-integral-derivative (PID) model, and adaptive cruise control (ACC) model into controllers. Experiments were designed to assess controller performance across steady-flow, congested, and stop-and-go traffic conditions, with a preliminary scaling test to support comparison with full-scale vehicles. Overall, the IDM-inspired controller achieved the best safety-efficiency balance, with compact platooning and the smallest speed fluctuations, while ACC was typically second-best; PID and Gipps showed larger oscillations and gaps, and GHR led to collisions. The results also demonstrate noticeable differences between physical and simulation experiments, highlighting the necessity of studying platooning in a physical environment. The fundamental diagram analysis confirms that theoretical and experimental results are generally consistent, reinforcing the usefulness of RSMRs in studying traffic dynamics and providing reproducible baselines for controller evaluation. ⋆ This research was partially funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project DP220100882. ∗ Corresponding author zhuopeng.xie@sydney.edu.au (Z. Xie); mohsen.ramezani@sydney.edu.au (M. Ramezani); david.levinson@sydney.edu.au (D. Levinson) ORCID (s): Zhuopeng Xie et al.: Preprint submitted to Elsevier Page 1 of 36 Platoon Formation and Retention Nomenclature ð ‘Ž acceleration of vehicles ð ‘Žmax maximum acceleration of vehicles ð ‘ most severe deceleration of vehicles ð ‘‘ð ‘–, 𠑖−1 distance between the front of vehicle ð ‘– and the rear of vehicle ð ‘– − 1 ð ‘‘e expected distance between vehicles ð ‘‘K distance between the first and fourth RSMRs used to calculate the density ð ‘‘last final distance between two RSMRs ð ‘‘max maximum distance between two RSMRs ð ‘‘min minimum distance between two RSMRs ð ‘‘s expected static distance between vehicles ð ‘‘steady steady-state inter-vehicle distance * ð ‘‘max maximum distance between two RSMRs during the stable following stage * ð ‘‘min minimum distance between two RSMRs during the stable following stage * ð ‘‘std standard deviation of the distance between two RSMRs during the stable following stage ð ‘’ input error of the PID controller ð ‘– vehicle index ð ‘— summation index in the discrete PID term 𠑘 density derived from the IDM formula ð ¾d derivative gain of the PID controller ð ¾F density obtained through physical experiment ð ¾i integral gain of the PID controller ð ¾p proportional gain of the PID controller 𠑙𠑣 length of vehicles ð ¿âˆž string-stability amplification ratio (peak-to-peak) ð ‘ž flow derived from the IDM formula ð ‘„F flow obtained through physical experiment ð ‘ âˆ— IDM desired spacing for Δ𠑣 = 0 ð ‘¡ time index ð ‘¡e expected time headway between vehicles ð ‘¡min minimum time headway between two RSMRs ð ‘¡*min minimum time headway between two RSMRs during the stable following stage Zhuopeng Xie et al.: Preprint submitted to Elsevier Page 2 of 36 Platoon Formation and Retention ð ‘¡Q duration for the fourth RSMR to reach the position of the first RSMR used to calculate the flow TTC time-to-collision between two vehicles ð ‘£ speed of vehicles 𠑣𠑙 speed of the leader ð ‘£s safe speed of vehicles ð ‘£*mean mean speed of the following RSMRs during the stable following stage ð ‘£*std standard deviation of the speed of following RSMRs during the stable following stage ð ‘£stable target steady speed used for ð ¿âˆž computation 𠑉 expected speed of vehicles 𠑉F time mean speed obtained through physical experiment Δ𠑡 time step for state/command updates (PID controller) Δ𠑣 relative speed to the leader 𠛿𠑣𠑖 speed deviation of vehicle ð ‘– from ð ‘£stable used in ð ¿âˆž ð ‘ , 𠑘1 , 𠑘2 , ð ‘™, ð ‘š, ð ›¿ constants Zhuopeng Xie et al.: Preprint submitted to Elsevier Page 3 of 36 Platoon Formation and Retention |
| Keywords: | transportation |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-13 |
| By: | David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a network origin–destination estimation (NODE) method for trip distribution that applies a percolation-like graph search to allocate trips from origins to destinations. Expanding in cost order from each origin, NODE matches productions to available attractions, depleting destination capacities as they are filled. Multiple origins compete for the same destinations; later arrivals may be diverted to more distant alternatives. The result is an OD matrix spatially constrained by network topology and impedance, without a global gravity function or logit structure. NODE can replicate gravity results in some settings, but departs in cases of destination capacity constraints, network bottlenecks, and heterogeneous acceptance, offering a simple, network-aware alternative to conventional models. |
| Keywords: | transportation, transport networks |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-05 |
| By: | Mansourihanis, Omid; Wang, Xuantong |
| Abstract: | Why do some urban neighborhoods walk while others drive, even when their physical environments appear similar? This study demonstrates that travel mode choice is fundamentally a coordination problem rather than an infrastructure capacity problem. Using a game-theoretic framework calibrated directly from observed commute behavior across all 33, 054 census blocks in Chicago, we show that neighbors’ walking behavior exerts a dominant influence on individual mode choice—outweighing the combined effects of density, safety, land use, and accessibility. We estimate utility functions via maximum likelihood logistic regression on American Community Survey data and solve for Nash equilibria at the block level. Results reveal that 93.5% of blocks are in transitional (off-equilibrium) states: approximately 31% exhibit walk-favored structural conditions but remain suppressed by coordination failures, representing high-leverage intervention targets, while 63% are transitioning toward automobile lock-in. Spatial analysis exposes stark environmental injustice—walkable hotspots cluster in the wealthy North Side and downtown, while car-dependent coldspots dominate the South and West sides. These findings establish that walking spreads as a social contagion through strategic complementarities, and that concentrated interventions achieving critical mass generate substantially higher returns than dispersed investments. The study provides a validated, spatially explicit framework for identifying tipping points and targeting active transport policies to maximize modal shift and advance environmental equity. |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ye6hf_v1 |
| By: | Santos, Mike; Lutzker, Liza; Griswold, Julia PhD |
| Abstract: | This report investigates jaywalking laws in connection with traffic safety, racial equity, and street design, focusing on California. It traces the concept of "jaywalking" to an early 20th-century auto industry campaign to shift safety responsibility from drivers to pedestrians. By analyzing national and California pedestrian injury and fatality data (2009–2022) alongside California Racial and Identity Profiling Act (RIPA) police stop data (2018–2022), the study describes demographic disparities in both pedestrian crashes and law enforcement of jaywalking. It also documents recent legislative efforts in California and other states and cities to decriminalize or reform jaywalking enforcement. Findings show that pedestrian fatalities reached a 40 year high in 2022, with California’s rates consistently exceeding the national average. Significant racial and economic disparities exist: Black pedestrians experience fatality rates multiple times those of White pedestrians, and lower-income neighborhoods suffer disproportionately. RIPA data further reveal that jaywalking-related police stops disproportionately affect Black pedestrians. These disparities are likely driven by the built environment—such as wide arterials and sparse crosswalks—which incentivizes mid-block crossings, particularly in under-invested communities. The report also examines California’s Assembly Bill (AB) 2147 (2022), which partially decriminalized jaywalking by limiting enforcement to cases of "immediate hazard." It concludes by recommending continued monitoring of enforcement and safety data to track AB 2147’s impact, alongside collecting built environment data to better contextualize racial and economic disparities in pedestrian outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Pedestrians, Pedestrian safety, Transportation equity, Injuries, Data analysis, Traffic law enforcement, Policy analysis |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4x06k8ww |
| By: | Mitja Devetak; Jasper Verschuur; Peter Klimek |
| Abstract: | Maritime chokepoints concentrate shipping traffic. Disruptions to this traffic can have a widespread impact on the global economy. However, the way in which these impacts are shaped by the shipping sector's adaptive behavior is not well understood. Here, we introduce an empirically calibrated full-scale agent-based model of the global commercial shipping fleet, representing 35, 954 active ships moving among 1, 651 ports. We use the model to quantify how rerouting changes arrival losses under chokepoint closures. Static route exposure alone does not predict realized losses. In the adaptive model, rerouting reduces losses at some directly exposed ports, while delayed vessel cycles create losses at later port calls and in dependent regions. Cumulative net shipping-day losses therefore continue to rise with closure duration because longer routes keep ships delayed after the initial adjustment. Each additional closure day reduces global shipping arrivals by 3.0% for Suez and 7.7% for simultaneous Suez, Panama, and Malacca closures. These losses are unevenly distributed in exposed regions and ports. Disruptions with known duration show different loss profiles from unexpected shocks with unknown duration, revealing that end-date information can reduce avoidable short-run losses. The results show that chokepoint risk is a dynamic problem of routing, timing, and regional exposure and not a static property of maritime-network topology. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.13431 |
| By: | 周勇 (中国石油大学（华东）) |
| Abstract: | Based on the value of mountain villas and the problems they face, this paper proposes a new design approach for mountain villas using electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft as the primary means of transportation. The advantages of this new type of mountain villa are: 1) No need to construct roads; they can be built on any terrain, even on isolated peaks, allowing residents to stay far away from bustling cities without inconvenience. 2) The scenery and privacy will be of the highest order, offering residents a breathtaking living experience and ultimate enjoyment. These villas will set a new benchmark for luxury estates and are also suitable for high end vacation and leisure development. 3) The environmental impact is within acceptable limits, and at the same time, these villas will add new landscape features to mountainous areas. However, there are also some non negligible issues, such as construction costs, eVTOL traffic safety, seismic and wind resistance of the buildings, and public perception. These issues are discussed in detail. |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vrcza_v1 |
| By: | Chun Yee Wong (International University of Japan); Caren Miriel Oshome (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how transport networks and socio-demographic factors affect malaria infection rates among children in Kenya. An instrumental-variable complementary log-log model was employed to obtain robust estimates using 2020 Malaria Indicator Survey Data. Results indicate that each additional year of maternal education decreases malaria incidence in children by 0.40 percentage points. In areas with high road density, the likelihood of malaria increases by approximately 6.47 to 7.53 percentage points. However, heterogeneity analysis indicates that education reduces malaria risk by 0.57 percentage points in high-density areas. In rural areas, increased road density exacerbates malaria risk. Children in rural areas have an increased risk of about 10.6 percentage points in the third and fourth quartiles, while in urban areas, only children in the third quartile see a smaller increase of 3.27 percentage points. Thus, it is evident that investing in infrastructure may not lead to improved health outcomes unless women fs education and malaria control programs are also addressed. To effectively reduce the risk of malaria, it's essential to combine educational policies with public health strategies. |
| Keywords: | Child Health; Malaria; Transport networks; Road Density; Maternal Education; Kenya |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_11 |
| By: | Moustapha Mounmemi (Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE UR3190, Chaire REEL.i, Réseau EDEN.i, F-25000 Besançon, France); Vincent Bertrand (Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE UR3190, Chaire REEL.i, Réseau EDEN.i, F-25000 Besançon, France); Philippe Canalda (Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, FEMTO-ST UMR6174, F-25000 Besançon, France) |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing transport requires scalable alternatives to private vehicles, yet carpooling adoption remains limited due to coordination failures and weak network density. This paper develops a micro-founded framework of multimodal carpooling adoption under carbon pricing, behavioral nudges, and endogenous network effects. Agents choose between private transport and platform-based carpooling based on generalized costs and a participation-dependent matching probability. This generates nonlinear adoption dynamics, multiple equilibria, and tipping points driven by network externalities and matching efficiency. The model is calibrated using French mobility evidence and simulation-based methods. Results show that carbon pricing increases adoption but is constrained by coordination thresholds. Behavioral nudges significantly reduce these thresholds and amplify pricing effects. Platform efficiency critically determines whether the system converges to high or low adoption equilibria. Mu-CAR digital platform, currently under deployment, will provide future high-frequency mobility data enabling structural estimation and empirical validation. Overall, the framework highlights strong policy complementarities and network effects. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Pricing, Behavioral Nudges, Network Effects, Carpooling, Matching friction, Micro-founded Framework. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2026-02 |