|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Simon Fuchs; Woan Foong Wong |
| Abstract: | Over half of distance-weighted U.S. freight is shipped using more than one transport mode. We examine how multimodal transport networks shape the economic and environmental impacts of infrastructure investments and disruptions. We develop a tractable spatial equilibrium model of multimodal routing with mode-specific congestion at intermodal terminals. We estimate a modal substitution elasticity using road and rail data, and a terminal congestion elasticity using vessel-positioning data. Calibrated to the U.S. freight network, the model identifies key bottlenecks and quantifies $.46-$1.85 billion in real GDP gains from intermodal terminal improvements, with additional environmental benefits from shifting away from carbon-intensive road transport. Ignoring mode-specific congestion overstates welfare gains from highway improvements by 85%, while ignoring multimodal flexibility understates them by 22%. Losing rail network access is estimated to reduce real GDP by $230 billion. |
| JEL: | F11 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35065 |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Rosa Sanchis-Guarner (Universitat de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys recent literature estimating the causal effects of urban transport investments and urban mobility policies on housing markets. We synthesise evidence along three dimensions: the capitalisation of accessibility gains, the internalisation of transport-related externalities, and the rise of green mobility initiatives. Results indicate that while improved accessibility is generally capitalised into higher property values, negative externalities—such as noise, pollution, and congestion—can attenuate or reverse these effects. Policies such as congestion pricing, zoning reforms, and low-emission zones also influence these outcomes, highlighting how institutions, network design, and local environmental conditions shape the housing market’s response to transport investments. Recent green interventions in city centres have shown an even stronger impact on housing prices, although they can also create spillover effects in nearby neighbourhoods. |
| Keywords: | transportation, housing prices, within cities |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2601 |
| By: | Alloysius Joko Purwanto (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Yasushi Ueki |
| Abstract: | ASEAN’s automotive industry is entering a critical transition phase as electrification, digitalisation, and decarbonisation reshape global vehicle markets. While electric vehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating across ASEAN, the region faces structural challenges: policy uncertainty, prolonged market stagnation, and fragmented industrial competitiveness. At the same time, ASEAN remains a vital production base in the global automotive value chain, particularly for internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This policy brief draws on ERIA’s ongoing work under the ASEAN–Japan Co-Creation Initiative and the proposed ASEAN–Japan Next-Generation Vehicle Industry Masterplan. It argues that ASEAN’s transition should follow varied, differentiated pathways rather than a single, linear electrification trajectory. A phased and diversified approach – combining ICE, HEV, x EV, sustainable fuels, and mobility services – is essential to preserve industrial competitiveness while advancing climate objectives. The brief outlines a strategic framework built around three pillars: (i) technology and market transition pathways; (ii) industrial transformation through decarbonisation, digitalisation, and servitisation; and (iii) strengthened regional and ASEAN–Japan collaboration. It concludes with policy recommendations to enhance policy predictability, mobilise investment, and position ASEAN as a resilient and competitive hub in the global next-generation vehicle ecosystem. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-22 |
| By: | D'Agostino, Mollie C. |
| Abstract: | California is considering whether to lift a decade-long ban on heavy-duty autonomous vehicles weighing more than 10, 000 pounds. This decision comes at a time when the state’s goods-movement system faces mounting pressure to improve safety, address labor shortages, remain competitive, and meet climate and economic goals. To better understand these challenges, our team synthesized existing academic research and conducted interviews with 18 experts across industry, labor, and government. A key takeaway from this analysis is that humans will play enduring roles in both traditional and emerging occupations in trucking. Policy choices can influence whether autonomous trucking brings about higher-quality jobs, more efficient commerce, and safer systems as opposed to fragmented industry oversight and job loss without retraining or re-employment. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6sq396xs |
| By: | Guillaume Arion (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Johanne Aude (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Gabrielle Gambuli (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UGE UFR SEG - Université Gustave Eiffel - UFR de Sciences économiques et de gestion - Université Gustave Eiffel); Mélina Hillion (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)) |
| Abstract: | In 2021, more than two in three workers living within the catchment area of the city of Lyon will commute by car. Workers living in the centre of the urban area and often working close to home are mainly young people and managers. Among them, one in four uses sustainable transport. Nearly a quarter of the lowest-income workers, mainly on the outskirts of Lyon, travel by public transport. Finally, affluent families and less well-off workers living in houses, mostly in the inner suburbs, prefer to travel by car due to longer journeys and a limited public transport network. |
| Abstract: | En 2021, plus de deux actifs sur trois habitant dans l'aire d'attraction de la ville de Lyon vont travailler en voiture. Les actifs vivant au centre du pôle et travaillant souvent près de chez eux sont essentiellement jeunes et cadres. Parmi eux, un sur quatre se déplace en mode doux. Près d'un quart des actifs les plus modestes, principalement en périphérie de Lyon, se déplace en transports en commun. Enfin, les familles aisées et les actifs moins fortunés vivant en maison, majoritairement en couronne, privilégient la voiture en raison de trajets plus longs et d'une offre de transports en commun moindre. |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05579510 |
| By: | Glenk, Gunther; Gschwind, Katrin; Reichelstein, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Companies across industries seek to assess the costs of complying with environmental regulations and meeting voluntary emission targets. This paper develops a carbon abatement cost model for firms operating a portfolio of assets with differing cost or load profiles. The resulting abatement cost curves serve as a decision tool for configuring individual assets to achieve firm-wide emission reductions at least cost. We apply our model to urban bus fleets regulated under the California Cap-and-Trade Program. We find that a carbon price of $35 per ton of CO2e (2024 average) incentivizes firms to configure their fleets such that batteryelectric drivetrains constitute 70% of usable installed capacity and 92% of annual demand, while diesel drivetrains serve peak loads. Since the resulting emissions are fairly inelastic to the carbon price, we conclude that the life-cycle cost per mile would increase substantially if deep decarbonization were to be induced entirely by higher carbon prices. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle costing, capacity investments, abatement cost curves, carbon emissions, transport decarbonization |
| JEL: | M41 M48 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:340016 |
| By: | Udayan Rathore; Ashish Singh |
| Abstract: | We leverage a quasi natural experiment from India on introduction of free bus schemes for women across five states to study it's impact on women's workforce participation. We use two rounds of the representative Time Use Survey and a triple difference estimation strategy, complemented by an event study framework to identify the causal relationship of interest. Findings reveal that the bus scheme was successful in improving women's paid work participation and duration of employment. We confirm that these results are not merely a continuation of prior trends. The scheme's effects are concentrated among early adopters like Punjab and Tamil Nadu, two states with historically different levels of women's workforce participation. We also find disproportionately higher effects for women residing in more patriarchal districts with higher mobility restrictions. We argue that the scheme works through easing of non-financial binding constraints, which lowers the barriers to women's mobility and workforce participation. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.14758 |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Gordon B. Dahl; Dan-Olof Rooth |
| Abstract: | There has been a dramatic rise in disability employment since the pandemic. At the same time, work from home (WFH) has risen four-fold. This paper asks whether the two are causally related. Controlling for compositional changes and labor market tightness, a 1 percentage point increase in WFH increases full-time employment by 1.0% for individuals with a physical disability. The postpandemic increase in working from home explains 68%-85% of the rise in full-time employment. Wage data suggests that WFH increased the supply of workers with a physical disability, likely by reducing commuting costs and enabling better control of working conditions. |
| Keywords: | work from home, disability employment |
| JEL: | J14 J42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12604 |
| By: | Fox, Celine; Timmons, Shane; Lunn, Pete |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp818 |
| By: | Yaxin Pang (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School); Shenle Pan (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | Logistics and supply chain resilience have become a critical priority in an era of increasing global uncertainty. The Physical Internet (PI) offers a transformative vision for logistics: an open, shared, and interconnected network that inherently promises greater resilience and sustainability. This paper investigates how PI principles can be proactively integrated into multimodal logistics networks to enhance their resilience and environmental performance. We first propose a pragmatic decision-making framework to guide managers through a step-by-step process for logistics network design and enhancement. Building on this framework, we develop two PI-based resilient network redesign strategies. To evaluate these strategies, we formulate the problem using a robust optimization model with a budget of uncertainty, and tailor an ALNS algorithm to solve large-scale, nearreal-world instances. Our computational experiments and sensitivity analyses assess the strategies' effectiveness across various disruption scenarios, different industries, and both onshoring and offshoring typologies of supply chains. The results demonstrate that PI-based strategies can improve network resilience while also contributing to reduced carbon emissions, providing actionable and meaningful insights for practitioners. |
| Keywords: | Budget of Uncertainty, Robust optimization, Physical Internet, Network Design, Resilience, Supply chain, Global Logistics |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05575065 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes shipping infrastructure around mining projects using empirical examples, a toy model of a hypothetical mine and port, and transaction cost economics. This article presents examples of two mining operations on Vancouver Island, called the Myra Falls Mine and the Orca Quarry. These two mines both have integrated shipping facilities, and the article uses transaction cost economics to analyze why these mines built their own ports. The article also builds a toy model of mining, processing, and shipping based on a bottom-up approach. The article presents different designs for the mine and compares them based on things like profitability, total GDP impact, and reliability of supply. One way to design the hypothetical mining and shipping project is to start with an assumption on the shipping capacity and then reverse-engineer the amount of mining required to use this port capacity. Another way to design it starts with an assumption about the mineral deposit and then infers the shipping capacity required to transport the mineral concentrates to market. The article shows how to compare the designs according to different goals. For example, one goal is to maximize the profit of the mine from the perspective of a private company. Another goal is to maximize the total GDP impact from the mine and port from the perspective of the Canadian government. A third goal is to ensure reliable, domestic production of critical minerals at any cost from the perspective of the military. The article presents an example of a hypothetical mining project with breakeven economics that would nonetheless generate large, positive economic impacts. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Shipping, Critical Minerals, Infrastructure, Transaction Cost Economics, |
| JEL: | B5 B52 D3 D7 D79 E6 E65 F2 F5 F53 G3 G38 H1 H2 H25 H5 K0 K2 K23 K3 L3 L32 L5 L51 L6 L61 L7 L72 N5 O1 O13 O2 P0 P1 Q3 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127815 |
| By: | Lea Karbevska; Liming Xu; Zehui Dai; Sara AlMahri; Alexandra Brintrup |
| Abstract: | As global political tensions rise and the anticipation of additional tariffs from the United States on international trade increases, the issues of economic independence and supply chain resilience become more prominent. The importance of supply chain resilience has been further underscored by disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine. In light of these challenges, ranging from geopolitical instability to product supply uncertainties, governments are increasingly focused on adopting new trade policies. This study explores the impact of several of these policies on the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain network, with a particular focus on their effects on country clusters and the broader structure of international trade. Specifically, we analyse three key policies: Country Plus One, Friendshoring, and Reshoring. Our findings show that Friendshoring, contrary to expectations, leads to greater globalisation by increasing the number of supply links across friendly countries, potentially raising transaction costs. The Country Plus One policy similarly enhances network density through redundant links, while the Reshoring policy creates challenges in the EV sector due to the high number of irreplaceable products. Additionally, the effects of these policies vary across industries; for instance, mining goods being less affected in Country Plus One than the Friendshoring policy. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.11479 |
| By: | Ufuk Can (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye, Adana, Turkiye; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt); Oguzhan Cepni (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Onur Polat (Institute of Informatics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe Campus, 06800 Cankaya, Ankara, Turkiye) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how a newspapers-based index of energy transportation uncertainty (ETU) has historically influenced extreme fluctuations in West Texas Intermediate oil prices from November 1982 to May 2025. We apply the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity model to identify both positive and negative bubbles across short-, medium-, and long-term periods. We then isolate structural ETU shocks with a Structural Vector Autoregression model and trace their dynamic impacts on six bubble indicators using Local Projections. The results reveal that the impact of energy transportation uncertainty is asymmetric and horizon dependent. While short- and medium-term responses are predominantly noisy or initially suppressive, ETU triggers a highly significant, delayed surge in long-term positive bubbles, eventually followed by an increased probability of downside corrections. This demonstrates that physical transportation disruptions operate largely through an expectations channel, gradually transforming fundamental scarcity concerns into self-reinforcing speculative boom-bust cycles. These findings underscore the need for policymakers and market participants to treat transportation uncertainty as a distinct channel, requiring horizon-specific hedging and resilient infrastructure to mitigate expectation-driven market fragility. |
| Keywords: | Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles, Oil Market, Energy Transportation Uncertainty, Local Projections |
| JEL: | C22 E50 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202608 |
| By: | Elena Villalobos (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Adolfo de Unánue T. (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Fernanda Sobrino (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); David Aké (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Stephany Cisneros (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Jorge Lecona (Container Terminal Operations, Veracruz, Mexico); Alejandra Matadamaz (Container Terminal Operations, Veracruz, Mexico) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the results of a data science study conducted at a container terminal, aimed at reducing unproductive container moves through the prediction of service requirements and container dwell times. We develop and evaluate machine learning models that leverage historical operational data to anticipate which containers will require pre-clearance handling services prior to cargo release and to estimate how long they are expected to remain in the terminal. As part of the data preparation process, we implement a classification system for cargo descriptions and perform deduplication of consignee records to improve data consistency and feature quality. These predictive capabilities provide valuable inputs for strategic planning and resource allocation in yard operations. Across multiple temporal validation periods, the proposed models consistently outperform existing rule-based heuristics and random baselines in precision and recall. These results demonstrate the practical value of predictive analytics for improving operational efficiency and supporting data-driven decision-making in container terminal logistics. |
| Keywords: | machine learning, port terminal, container dwell time, decision support systems, predictive analytics, operational efficiency, logistics, Mexico |
| JEL: | C53 C55 L91 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:31 |