|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Robert J. R. Eliott; Gavin D. J. Harper; Viet Nguyen-Tien |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are central to decarbonising road transport, a sector responsible for 23% of global energy-related emissions, and their adoption carries both economic and societal implications. This paper provides an economic review of EV transitions, synthesizing theory, stylized facts, and frontier empirical findings. We document three key observations: EV adoption has historically occurred in waves that stalled and revived; contemporary adoption is highly heterogeneous across countries; and the transition reshapes automotive sector activities and supply chains, increasing reliance on geographically concentrated critical minerals and generating Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) and political economy challenges. We then analyze the economic drivers of adoption, including total cost of ownership, network externalities, and complementary technologies such as charging infrastructure, grid integration, and digital innovations. Supply-side constraints, resource scarcity, and innovation dynamics are examined, highlighting how the EV platform interacts with broader technological and industrial systems. The analysis emphasizes the systemic, path-dependent, and platform nature of EV transitions and outlines policy-relevant insights for managing adoption, supply chains, and innovation. Finally, we identify avenues for future research, including the economics of end-of-life and used EVs, resilient supply chains, and the role of complementary technologies in accelerating low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, critical materials, supply chains |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2164 |
| By: | Jafari, Afshin; Giles-Corti, Billie |
| Abstract: | Proximity based planning has become an influential idea in urban policy, centred on the goal of meeting daily needs within short walking and cycling distances of home. However, most studies still assess access to single destinations, even though daily travel often involves linked tours rather than isolated trips. This paper develops a tour based perspective on proximity based planning and examines how daily activity patterns differ across Greater Melbourne. Using data from the Melbourne travel survey, we construct home based tours from full day travel diaries, classify them by destination structure, and estimate separate latent class models for weekdays and weekends. The results show that outer Melbourne is much more car dependent than inner Melbourne, while the overall structure of weekday and weekend tour patterns is more similar across the city. Car dominated tours increase from 49.5% in the inner ring to 79.9% in the outer ring, while walk dominated tours fall from 27.4% to 12.2%. The latent class analysis shows that similar weekday and weekend tour archetypes are found across inner, middle, and outer Melbourne, but are realised through different modes. Within the same classes, walking and public transport are more common in the inner ring, while car use is highest in the outer ring. These findings suggest that proximity based planning should not be assessed only by whether destinations are nearby, but by whether neighbourhoods allow people to combine daily activities without needing a car. |
| Date: | 2026–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:53s98_v1 |
| By: | Wang, Yue |
| Abstract: | I study the credit channel of the electric-vehicle (EV) transition using more than 1.8 million German auto loans and leases. I show that EV financing contracts default significantly less often than comparable internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) contracts-particularly among lower-income borrowers. Following the 2020 expansion of German federal EV subsidies, lenders adjusted EV financing relative to comparable ICEV contracts. Independent banks tightened EV loan terms while lending to lower-income borrowers. Captive banks also tightened EV loans, mainly through non-price terms, while accommodating subsidy-period EV demand more readily through leasing. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, Auto loans, Auto leasing, Captive banks, Credit risk |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G50 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:338128 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné; Cristina Mitaritonna; Gianluca Orefice; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | The average energy efficiency of the aviation sector has increased by 2.7 percent per year since 2012, falling short of the 6 percent increase in demand. Optimizing routes by reducing the number of legs per flight is one way to complement technological advances in aircraft and fuels to reduce aviation's environmental footprint. The signature of Air Service Agreements (ASAs) allows airlines to reorganize their flight routes. They reshape the international route network in a more efficient way and ultimately reduce CO2 emissions per passenger. On the other hand, ASAs increase the demand for international flights, which may offset the reduction in overall CO2 emissions by airlines. Using unique data on airline tickets and ASAs in force during the period 2012-2019, we show that the considerable reduction in per-passenger CO2 emissions due to the re-organization of international flight routes induced by ASAs is overcompensated by the additional demand for less time-consuming and, hence, more comfortable international flights. |
| Keywords: | Air Service Agreements;Air Transportation;Environment |
| JEL: | F13 L93 F64 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-04 |
| By: | Sonali Chowdhry; Inga Heiland; Hendrik Mahlkow |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights an underexplored margin of heterogeneity that shapes resilience to disruptions in global maritime trade - the differential reliance of countries and sectors on specific categories of vessels. We combine US bills of lading records with ship registry and AIS-based port call data to document new stylized facts on vessel deployment, including switching patterns across ships, country specialization in shipbuilding, and the composition of fleets serving different country pairs. Exploiting the 2016 Panama Canal expansion as a quasi-natural experiment, we further provide the first direct estimate for the elasticity of substitution between vessels across size classes. Building on the empirical evidence, we then introduce endogenous vessel choice into a quantitative general equilibrium trade model that features multiple transport modes and a global market for shipping services. The model allows us to quantify the trade and welfare effects of two recent policy proposals that target specific ship types, namely, fees for Chinese-built vessels entering US ports and the inclusion of the maritime transport sector in the EU Emission Trading System. |
| Keywords: | Maritime transport, Quantitative general equilibrium trade models, EU ETS, Port fees, China |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F52 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2158 |
| By: | Shi, Huicong |
| Abstract: | Large metro stations present significant challenges for unfamiliar users who must interpret spatial information and make navigation decisions under time pressure and uncertainty. While wayfinding systems are widely recognized as essential components of public transport infrastructure, existing studies have primarily evaluated signage in terms of visibility and compliance, rather than the sufficiency of information available to users during decision-making. This paper introduces the concept of wayfinding information sufficiency and proposes a conceptual framework that examines how spatial information supports both route-finding and spatial communication among unfamiliar users in public metro stations. The framework considers three interrelated dimensions: accessibility of information, interpretability of signage and spatial cues, and referencability for interpersonal communication and location description. Drawing on observations of complex metro environments, the paper argues that insufficient or poorly distributed information can lead to hesitation, corrective movements, and localized congestion, which may increase safety risks and reduce operational efficiency. The study reframes wayfinding as a behavioral and communicative process embedded in the interaction between users and spatial information systems. The framework aims to support future empirical research and practical applications in the design and management of large public transport environments. It also provides a conceptual basis for evaluating information redundancy and improving wayfinding systems for unfamiliar users. |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ytm48_v1 |
| By: | Anthony Wiskich |
| Abstract: | Battery vessels (BVs) have been proposed to partially electrify long-distance shipping by connecting to ocean-going vessels at sea and recharging at port, ensuring frequent cycling of the battery. While previous work has examined their maritime economics, we quantify their system-wide effects in a detailed multi-regional capacity expansion model of the Australian east coast in 2050, under multi-year weather variability. BVs have two revenue streams of comparable value - powering ships at sea and temporal grid arbitrage - and can relocate between ports. Thus, they are deployed even at costs per MWh well above stationary batteries, lowering electricity system costs (-1.3%) and reducing renewable curtailment (-31%). As peaker gas generation and electricity-sector emissions are reduced (-12%), decarbonisation through partial ship electrification is reinforced by a cleaner electricity supply. |
| Keywords: | maritime economics, decarbonisation, electricity model, battery vessels |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q47 R40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-17 |
| By: | Christopher Severen |
| Abstract: | I describe the use of quantitative spatial models (QSMs) to evaluate the effects of transportation infrastructure within cities. After discussing the motivation for QSMs relative to other economic measurement techniques, I develop a simple QSM and detail the components that enter into the model. Next, I consider identification challenges and practical implementation. Finally, I highlight several shortcomings common in applications of QSMs, as well as growth areas where QSMs show promise for future development. |
| Keywords: | quantitative spatial models; transportation infrastructure; transit; urban economics |
| JEL: | R40 R41 O18 |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102896 |
| By: | Xingjian Ding; Yumin Hu; Shilei Liu; Cong Peng; Jintao Xu; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu; Qinghua Zhang |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal impact of highway expansion on forest quality in China, where expressway growth coincided with widespread greening. We link maps of highways built in 2000-2010 to China's National Forest Inventory: over 18, 000 geo-located plots in 11 provinces surveyed in 1999-2003 and 2009-2013, with ground measures of standing timber volume and canopy structure. Long-difference and instrumental-variables designs—using a terrain-based least-cost network and the 1962 road plan—show that moving 10 km closer to a new highway increases timber volume by 2-4.3%, with effects concentrated 1-20 km from roads. The implied gains in forest biomass correspond to 55.8-141.9 Mt of CO2, comparable at the upper bound to the Netherlands' annual emissions. Under strict land-use controls and forest tenure reform, improved downstream market access induces investment and specialization in forestry. A calibrated spatial equilibrium model attributes most of the estimated gains to downstream market access, highlighting the environmental benefits of connectivity. |
| Keywords: | public infrastructure, environmental externalities, forest management, market access, land-use regulation |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2162 |
| By: | Bolivar, Osmar (Analytics, Values and Intelligence Laboratory); Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo (World Bank); Balthrop, Andrew (University of Tennessee, Knoxville) |
| Abstract: | Road infrastructure boosts economic opportunities and thus contributes to poverty alleviation. This paper investigates the causal impact of paved primary roads on poverty and income mobility in Ecuador, with particular attention to the mechanisms through which these effects materialize. exploiting variation in road expansion between 2012 and 2019, we track the construction of new major roads and link this information to socioeconomic outcomes reported in the national household survey. To achieve representativeness at a fine geographical scale, we employ the max-p region algorithm. Using staggered difference-in-differences estimators, we identify the causal effects of road infrastructure on poverty reduction and income dynamics. The findings indicate that access to paved major roads significantly reduces poverty rates overall. Middle-income households benefit from income growth following road access and these gains are attributable primarily to improvements in employment quality rather than increases in employment rates, with the largest effects concentrated in the primary sector. |
| Keywords: | road infrastructure, poverty, middle class, Ecuador |
| JEL: | I32 O18 H54 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18451 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Cristina Mitaritonna (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Gianluca Orefice (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Gianluca Santoni (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | The average energy efficiency of the aviation sector has increased by 2.7 percent per year since 2012, falling short of the 6 percent increase in demand. Optimizing routes by reducing the number of legs per flight is one way to complement technological advances in aircraft and fuels to reduce aviation's environmental footprint. The signature of Air Service Agreements (ASAs) allows airlines to reorganize their flight routes. They reshape the international route network in a more efficient way and ultimately reduce CO 2 emissions per passenger. On the other hand, ASAs increase the demand for international flights, which may offset the reduction in overall CO 2 emissions by airlines. Using unique data on airline tickets and ASAs in force during the period 2012-2019, we show that the considerable reduction in per-passenger CO 2 emissions due to the re-organization of international flight routes induced by ASAs is overcompensated by the additional demand for less time-consuming and, hence, more comfortable international flights. |
| Keywords: | Air Service Agreements, Air Transportation, Environment |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-05545525 |
| By: | Buggle, Johannes (University of Innsbruck); Butschek, Sebastian (University of Innsbruck); Tenschert, Elian (University of Innsbruck) |
| Abstract: | We study how a political identity shock affects high-stakes consumption choices. Late in 2024, Elon Musk endorsed Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland. We document that after this, Tesla sales rose by up to 30 percent in right-leaning districts relative to left-leaning ones, without measurable substitution to other electric vehicles. Divestment in second-hand markets shows no partisan differences, consistent with resale requiring a larger identity cost from Tesla's image shock than non-purchase. Our lower bound-estimate for the overall loss in Tesla sales is 6500 vehicles in the first half of 2025, worth at least €241 million. |
| Keywords: | consumer identity, political polarization, Elon Musk |
| JEL: | D12 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18458 |
| By: | Zhaoqi Zang; David Z. W. Wang; Xiangdong Xu; Shaojun Liu |
| Abstract: | Time variability is a pervasive feature of mobility services and a major source of welfare loss. Although literature has quantified the cost of time variability (COTV), it remains theoretically unclear how bad time variability can be in the worst case. Without such a benchmark, quantified variability costs lack a principled reference for assessing whether they are economically meaningful. Meanwhile, this benchmark is critical for strategic prioritization in transport appraisal, service design, and pricing -- particularly in early-stage decision making where detailed valuation is often infeasible. To fill this gap, this paper develops an expected utility (EU) framework to quantify the cost of time (COT) and COTV, establishing theoretical upper bounds on the ratio $COTV/COT$. For users with quadratic utility, we show $COTV/COT \le 1/2 CV^2$, where $CV$ is the coefficient of variation of service time. For Poisson processes, a common assumption, this bound simplifies to $COTV/COT \le 1/2$, implying the total cost of a stochastic service is at most 1.5 times that of an otherwise identical deterministic service. In more general settings, the ratio depends on three interpretable factors: $CV$ and users' second- and third-order risk preferences, captured by relative risk aversion (RRA) and relative prudence (RP). We identify benchmark values of RRA and RP that characterize preferences over mean-, variance-, and skewness-related reductions. Our analysis extends to non-EU frameworks, including dual theory and rank dependent utility, showing that key structural insights remain robust. By quantifying the cost induced by time variability and the $COTV/COT$ ratio, this study provides a data-light benchmark for early-stage decision making and a principled upper bound on users' willingness to pay for reliability improvements, informing the pricing and design of reliability-oriented services. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.09142 |
| By: | Mateos, Angel; Butt, Ali A; Kim, Changmo; Nassiri, Somayeh; Harvey, John |
| Abstract: | Caltrans jointed plain concrete pavements (JPCP) and continuously reinforced concrete pavements (CRCP) are currently designed for a 40-year life (based on 10% fatigue transverse cracking and 10 punchouts per mile criteria, respectively). While this is already a long-life design, there is the concern that it may not result in the minimum possible life cycle cost and environmental impacts. The current Caltrans Highway Design Manual (HDM), including the Rigid Pavement Design Catalog, and the Standard Specifications applicable to concrete pavements, are based on this 40 year design life. This study includes recommendations for the materials, design, and construction of concrete pavements aimed at extending the design life up to 100 years. These recommendations are based on existing knowledge and tools and indicate the changes necessary to Caltrans’s existingspecifications and practices. However, uncertainties remain in traffic load and climate predictions, as well as the limitations of current durability and structural design models, all of which complicate efforts to accurately predict pavement life beyond the current 40-year standard. As part of this study, the web version of the Rigid Pavement Design Catalog has been updated to allow any design life up to 100 years. This study includes the pavement structural design, life cycle cost analysis (LCCA), and the environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of three case studies, each designed for 40-, 60-, and 100-year lives. The increase in design life from 40 to 60 years required an increase in JPCP thickness of 0.05 ft. for all three case studies, which carried an increase in the initial agency construction cost of around 5%. The LCCA and LCA results indicate that increasing the design life from 40 to 60 years is expected to result in 3% life cycle agency cost savings and 24% life cycle infrastructure global warmingpotential (GWP) savings. Some road user cost savings were seen from fewer construction work zone (CWZ) closures. Smaller life cycle costs and GWP reductions were found when the design life increased from 60 to 100 years, due in part to the relatively high discount rate used in this study (3.2% per year) and the fact that the reconstruction activity for the 60-year design life already lay beyond the end of the 100-year analysis period adopted in this study. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, pavement design life, jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP), continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP), life cycle cost analysis (LCCA), life cycle assessment (LCA), global warming potential (GWP) |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6k69q4rz |
| By: | David W. Berger; Geoffrey Gee; Nick Turner; Eric Zwick |
| Abstract: | How does fiscal stimulus affect durable goods sales and to what extent does stimulus drive inflation? We study this question in the context of how the unprecedented pandemic fiscal stimulus affected household car purchases and auto prices. Using administrative data on vehicle registrations, we exploit the timing of nearly $900 billion in stimulus payments and geographic differences in program exposure to identify causal effects on sales. We find the stimulus increased purchases by 5.5 million vehicles (3.2%) during 2020–2022, implying a medium-run (3-year) marginal propensity to spend (MPX) on autos of 0.19 and a total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 0.47. Despite this substantial demand response, fiscal transfers account for less than 20% of the surge in auto prices. In a general equilibrium model with new and used markets, we show how secondary-market interactions dampen inflation. When transfers push households onto the new-car margin, trade-ins expand used supply and limit price increases. This channel weakens when supply is tight or when policy targets borrowing constraints, in which case stimulus manifests more as inflation than output. Non-fiscal factors, including supply constraints, relaxed credit conditions, and preference shifts, explain the majority of the observed inflation. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E31 E32 E62 H12 H24 H31 H53 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34954 |
| By: | de Assis, Rebeca Froés; Loureiro, Carlos Felipe Grangeiro; Freitas, Clarissa; Humberto, Mateus |
| Abstract: | Transport-induced gentrification has been increasingly studied. Residential displacement is the primary concern underlying this. More recently, scholars have begun to explore this debate in informal settlements, as they have long been a housing solution for working-class people in the Global South. This paper further advances this debate by addressing a twofold objective. First, we wonder if gentrification can unfold in Latin American slums through the entry of slightly more affluent households. Second, we investigate whether the relocation of long-term residents can be considered market-driven displacements. To this end, we undertook a two-step approach that combined the comparison of Google Street View (GSV) images from different dates with a participatory workshop in a community impacted by a Light Rail Transit system (Fortaleza, Brazil). Our findings reinforce scholarly arguments that gentrification and displacement are two different and independent phenomena. This is because, despite finding no evidence of market-driven displacement, we find a few cases of low-income gentrifiers. For the Latin American theorization, this challenges the framing of gentrification as a conflict between antagonistic classes over space. Another contribution of our study concerns the spatial extent of transport-induced gentrification, as changes within the community were closely linked to regional restructuring processes. |
| Date: | 2026–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ebq89_v1 |
| By: | Barbour, Elisa PhD; Gordon-Feierabend, Lev; Kaeppelin, , Francoi |
| Abstract: | This report considers motivations, obstacles, and policies and programs adopted at the state, regional, and local levels in California to support transit-oriented development (TOD). Regulatory policies adopted by the state in recent years to induce TOD are discussed, as well as state-led and regionally-managed funding programs. Findings are presented from two on-line surveys of local planning directors, and 51 interviews with regional and local planners. The findings point to multiple obstacles to achieving TOD, including market factors, resident opposition, and lack of sufficient funding for implementation, such as for necessary infrastructure to support new development. The most commonly adopted local policies to support TOD include streamlining of environmental review requirements, mixed-use zoning and upzoning (permitting higher densities), improving bike and pedestrian facilities, development of Specific Plans for neighborhoods, and mechanisms to ease accessory dwelling units (ADUs). The survey findings indicate that policies and programs initiated from multiple levels of government are deemed effective for inducing TOD. A recent one-off TOD-supportive funding program that was managed regionally, called the Regional Earley Action Program (REAP), is found to be rated as very valuable both by regional and local planners, leading to the recommendation that this program be instated on an ongoing basis with dedicated funding. The report also concludes that policies deemed effective for inducing TOD, especially funding affordable housing and addressing the nexus of zoning, CEQA streamlining for infill, permit streamlining through ministerial review, and support for Specific Plans, should continue to receive policy support from the state legislature and regional agencies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transit oriented development, Policy analysis, Regulation, Zoning, Housing, Regional planning |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt83s189q9 |
| By: | Innocente, Emma (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Tancrez, Jean-Sébastien (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Crowdshipping is a collaborative delivery system that outsources delivery tasks to ordinary citizens that act as non-professional couriers, with the potential to reduce delivery costs and improve sustainability. The crowdshippers deliver shipments by taking a short detour from their planned trips in return for a compensation fee. The dynamic assignment of crowdshippers to parcels over time is challenging as the arrival of crowdshippers and parcels is stochastic and their availability is dynamically revealed and as present assignments affect future ones. Peer-to-peer crowdshipping, which encompasses all types of crowdshipper journeys and parcel deliveries, with no restrictions on origin or destination to specific locations, is subject to a high level of uncertainty. This work presents an approximate dynamic programming approach based on value function approximation for the dynamic assignment problem of peer-to-peer crowdshipping platforms. The approach is based on the offline adaptive approximation of parcel values and provides non-myopic behavior while only solving a sequence of assignment problems no larger than in a myopic approach. Through numerical results, we demonstrate our methodology’s effectiveness as, compared to a myopic benchmark, it increases the cost savings achieved via crowdshipping and reduces crowdshipper detours. Our analysis highlights the parameters affecting the relevance of implementing a non-myopic assignment method. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic programming ; Crowdshipping ; Dynamic assignment ; Approximate dynamic programming ; Crowd logistics |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2026004 |
| By: | Ilona Dielen (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; Université Paris-Est Créteil, ERUDITE, France); Patrice Bougette (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Christophe Charlier (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the cartel of European truck manufacturers coordinated the timing of compliance with emission standards, generating additional air pollution without violating environmental regulations. Although firms formally complied with environmental law, collusion restricted competition over cleaner technologies, highlighting that anticompetitive agreements can have significant environmental and health consequences. First, we quantify the volume of particulate emissions attributable to cartel behavior by constructing two plausible counterfactual scenarios for truck fleet composition, identifying substantial excess emissions of approximately 119 thousand tonnes of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Second, we estimate the health impact of traffic-related PM2.5 emissions on infant respiratory outcomes using a panel of 199 European subregions observed over an 18-year period. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous variation in EURO emission standards through a shift-share instrumental-variable strategy. The resulting elasticity allows us to compute the number of infant respiratory hospital admissions attributable to the cartel under counterfactual competitive conditions. We estimate that earlier, competition-driven adoption of cleaner technologies could have reduced average yearly infant hospital admissions by 12–18 cases per 1, 000 births at the NUTS 2 level. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution; Truck cartel; Anticompetitive agreement; Environmental damage; EURO standards; European Commission |
| JEL: | I18 K21 L41 Q51 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-06 |
| By: | Hauck, Florian; Güth, Albrecht; Kliewer, Natalia; Rößler-von Saß, David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the possibilities of creating synthetic train trip data with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). A real data set from Deutsche Bahn is enhanced with synthetic data created by using a Conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (CWGAN). The synthetic data is analyzed and compared with the original data using statistical methods as well as machine learning models. The results show that the synthetic data is very similar to the original data in terms of data structure and dependencies, but at the same time contains enough noise to not just copy already existing instances. To analyze and measure the quality of the synthetic data, different supervised machine learning models are trained to predict the change of delay of trains at a specific station based on the arrival delays of other trains at that station. These models are then each trained once using the real data and once using the real data enhanced by synthetic data. All models are evaluated using a test set containing only real data that was not used to train the models. The results show that the R2 value of delay predictions increases significantly when using the enhanced data set. In particular, neural network-based models can benefit from the larger amount of input data. The proposed approach of generating synthetic train trip data with a CWGAN can also be applied to various other railway data analysis projects that require a large amount of input data. In addition, the presented approach is particularly interesting because, unlike most GAN approaches discussed in current literature, the data basis contains numerical data and not image data. |
| Keywords: | Generative Adversarial Networks, Train Delay Prediction, Railway Analysis |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:338080 |
| By: | Linovski, Orly; Klein, Nicholas J. (Cornell University); Lee, Amy; Ralph, Kelcie |
| Abstract: | The need for spending on roads and highways is largely unquestioned because the benefits of economic growth, reduced congestion, and increased jobs seem both self-evident and politically neutral. Yet, as we document in this report, this narrative benefits from the support of hundreds of lobbyists, millions of dollars in spending, and a collection of extensive and diverse strategies. This report focuses on one group involved in the road lobby — the trade associations and business organizations that stand to directly benefit from increased investment in road building, including contractors, building material and aggregate producers, and engineering companies. We find that trade associations spend heavily on lobbying and political campaigns, and they are often among the top spenders in their industry category. This results in hundreds of lobbyists working for trade associations, many with government experience, and millions of dollars donated to political campaigns and political action committees (PACs). The strategies used are diverse and extensive, including direct engagement with elected officials, mobilizing association members and grassroots advocacy, establishing expertise through “informational lobbying” and research institutes, and funding programs to support lobbying at other levels. These resources are used to frame road building as critical to economic growth and job creation, worthy of support through increased spending and dedicated user fees as well as regulatory reform. |
| Date: | 2026–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n8v3m_v1 |