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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Fulton, Lewis PhD; Lamichhaine, Madhu; Lipman, Timothy PhD; Coffee, Daniel PhD; Kong, David PhD |
| Abstract: | This report develops a transportation hydrogen roadmap for California projected to 2045, building on previous UC ITS work, in part for the ARCHES hydrogen hub for trucks and ports. This study adds modes such as airports, aircraft, rail systems, and fuel-cell light-duty vehicles. Based on a scenario of high adoption of hydrogen-fueled transport, these modes and sectors would use 1000 tonnes/day of hydrogen by 2035 and 5000 tonnes/day by 2045. To 2035, about 40% of the expected growth occurs in heavy-duty trucking. Another 20% is used by other truck types, about 20% by light-duty vehicles, and 20% by other modes, notably shipping and aviation. These shares remain similar to 2045. Trucking remains the dominant driver of demand. Shipping, aviation, and rail are not anticipated to account for an increasing share of demand in the scenarios in this study. This hydrogen fuel system would support around 6, 000 jobs per year. Hydrogen vehicle adoption will depend on strong policy support, coordination of planning and investments, and rapid scale up to reach a hydrogen system that can be self-sustaining, on the order of hundreds of tonnes per day by 2040. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Hydrogen fuels, Hydrogen refueling, Fuel consumption, Greenhouse gases, Technology adoption, Trucking, Ports |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5fh1v02k |
| By: | Hardman, Scott PhD; Senthil, Sonali; Li, Jiewei Grant; Jenn, Alan PhD |
| Abstract: | Public direct current fast charging (DCFC) infrastructure is in an early stage of development, depends on public funding, may not be profitable, and its locations may not provide the amenities that consumers want to use while charging. This report explores topics related to these issues: what activities battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivers participate in, BEV drivers’ spending on charging and other items while at a DCFC, drivers’ self-reported preferences for amenities at DCFC, and drivers’ reported experiences using DCFC. The results reveal most drivers do something other than using DCFC while charging their BEV; close to half of respondents purchase something other than electricity for their BEV, and this expenditure is higher than the average cost of a charging session. The results highlight the potential for charging providers to explore new ways of generating revenue directly by developing stations with revenue-generating amenities attached, or through symbiotic relationships between charging providers and businesses such as stores, restaurants, and coffee shops. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric vehicle charging, Electric vehicles, Service stations, Consumer behavior, Surveys |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0jm16498 |
| By: | Jingni Zhang; David Popp |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial for cutting transportation emissions, yet the policy drivers of EV innovation remain underexplored. This study analyzes firm-level panel data on EV and battery patents, covering more than 4, 000 firms across 19 countries from 2010 to 2021, to assess how these policy tools and their interactions in different time horizons influence innovative activity. We test the effects of individual policy instruments that either raise demand for EVs or support the development of EV technologies. Stringent fuel-economy standards, financial incentives, adoption targets, and public R&D investments each significantly increase patenting in EV and battery technologies. Moreover, long-term EV targets amplify the innovative impact of public R&D and standards while diminishing the marginal effect of short-term price signals. The results suggest that governments can accelerate clean automotive innovation by combining long-term adoption commitments with sustained R&D investment or strong performance standards, and by managing these instruments as a coordinated policy portfolio rather than as separate tools. The study contributes cross-country, firm-level evidence that links policy design to the direction of clean technology innovation. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle, technological innovation, policy horizons |
| JEL: | O31 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12421 |
| By: | Tal, Gil PhD; Kurani, Kenneth PhD |
| Abstract: | Since most Californians don’t buy new cars, the used car market plays a vital role in broadening access to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), particularly among lower-income populations who may find new ZEVs financially out of reach. However, little is known about the used ZEV market. To address this gap, our research team analyzed used ZEV market characteristics, buyer demographics, and the patterns of vehicle transfers within the state. The aim of our research is to help policymakers understand how the used ZEV market contributes to California’s broader goals of reducing emissions and ensuring equitably access to clean transportation technologies. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9fz4b7dv |
| By: | Devansh Jalota; Matthew Tsao |
| Abstract: | Informal and privatized transit services, such as minibuses and shared auto-rickshaws, are integral to daily travel in large urban metropolises, providing affordable commutes where a formal public transport system is inadequate and other options are unaffordable. Despite the crucial role that these services play in meeting mobility needs, governments often do not account for these services or their underlying incentives when planning transit systems, which can significantly compromise system efficiency. Against this backdrop, we develop a framework to analyze the incentives underlying informal and privatized transit systems, while proposing mechanisms to guide public transit operation and incentive design when a substantial share of mobility is provided by such profit-driven private operators. We introduce a novel, analytically tractable game-theoretic model of a fully privatized informal transit system with a fixed menu of routes, in which profit-maximizing informal operators (drivers) decide where to provide service and cost-minimizing commuters (riders) decide whether to use these services. Within this framework, we establish tight price of anarchy bounds which demonstrate that decentralized, profit-maximizing driver behavior can lead to bounded yet substantial losses in cumulative driver profit and rider demand served. We further show that these performance losses can be mitigated through targeted interventions, including Stackelberg routing mechanisms in which a modest share of drivers are centrally controlled, reflecting environments where informal operators coexist with public transit, and cross-subsidization schemes that use route-specific tolls or subsidies to incentivize drivers to operate on particular routes. Finally, we reinforce these findings through numerical experiments based on a real-world informal transit system in Nalasopara, India. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.10456 |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Shanjun Li; Tianli Xia |
| Abstract: | Range anxiety, the fear of depleting battery before reaching a charging station, is often cited as a major barrier to electric vehicle (EV) adoption, yet there has been limited formal economic analysis to quantify its magnitude and examine the policy implications. We develop a continuous-time dynamic model of EV usage and charging decisions to micro-found range anxiety as the utility loss from feasible yet unrealized trips due to perceived range constraints. Using high-frequency data of 188, 000 EV trips and 26, 000 charging events among 8, 000 EVs in Shanghai, we recover model parameters governing consumer driving and charging decisions. The estimates imply that, across EV models with varying driving ranges, average range anxiety was about $1, 900 in 2021 but declined to $1, 200 in 2024, driven by improvements in charging infrastructure and, especially, increases in driving range. Policy simulations underscore the importance of coordinating investments in driving range and charging infrastructure to address range anxiety. Relative to socially optimal levels, Shanghai’s EV market has under-invested in driving range but over-invested in charging infrastructure. |
| JEL: | L91 R13 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34871 |
| By: | Garcia Calvo, Angela (University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how Europe may achieve this goal through an analysis of the automotive sector as it transitions from internal combustion engines to battery electric, software-defined vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2025/47 |
| By: | Collins, Stephanie; Lipman, Timoth PhD; Horvath, Arpad PhD |
| Abstract: | The CA-LCA-H2 tool performs a cost and greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions assessment for a hydrogen project in California by selecting the operating region and mode of production and distribution of the hydrogen through to a fuel cell trucking use case. The cost of clean hydrogen production can change significantly from the choice of production method due to the respective energy and capital costs, and in the case of electrolysis, the electricity source. The regional variations in the electricity mix can significantly affect the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. These components then contribute to the potential effectiveness of hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel for the use case assessment. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Life cycle analysis, Hydrogen fuels, Hydrogen production, Trucks, Fuel cell vehicles, Greenhouse gases, Emissions |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7k9796xb |
| By: | Keith Head; Thierry Mayer; Marc Melitz; Chenying Yang |
| Abstract: | We model a multi-stage supply chain for EVs from battery production to vehicle distribution. Given industrial policies, firms select where to open facilities at each stage. This is a difficult combinatorial choice problem that we solve with a fast mixed integer linear programming formulation. We estimate the variable and fixed costs parameters using SMM. Counterfactual simulations reveal a tension between boosting EV adoption and promoting domestic supply chains. Due to increasing returns, even unconditional subsidies raise the number of factories in the subsidizing region—by about 16% for EVs and 7% for cells in North America, and even more in Europe. Theoretically, local assembly requirements can push down delivered marginal costs relative to unconditional subsidies. Empirically, local content requirements quadruple the expansion of cell factories in America, but they drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake, undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies. |
| JEL: | C63 F14 F23 L50 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34884 |
| By: | Vishal R. Patel; Christopher M. Worsham; Michael Liu; Anupam B. Jena |
| Abstract: | Modern smartphones present new threats to road safety beyond talking and texting, but the real-world effects are difficult to study. One way to causally assess the impact of smartphones on road safety is to identify arbitrarily timed events during which smartphone-related distraction may exogenously increase – i.e., a situation that relies not on plausibly random variation in who uses smartphones while driving, but when smartphones are used. We investigated the impact of smartphones on road safety by examining traffic fatalities on days when smartphone use likely surges: the release of major music albums. Using event study analysis, we show that music streaming – an indicator for smartphone use, where streaming most often occurs – sharply increases, by nearly 40%, on dates of major music album releases, while U.S. traffic fatalities increase by nearly 15% on those same days. Mobile device use while driving is a known safety issue, but today’s smartphones present new and greater opportunities for driver distraction. Our study indicates how features of these phones may have important impacts on distracted driving and traffic fatalities. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34866 |
| By: | Devansh Jalota; Sharon Di; Adam N. Elmachtoub |
| Abstract: | Congestion pricing has emerged as an effective tool for mitigating traffic congestion, yet implementing welfare or revenue-optimal dynamic tolls is often impractical. Most real-world congestion pricing deployments, including New York City's recent program, rely on significantly simpler, often static, tolls. This discrepancy motivates the question of how much revenue and welfare loss there is when real-world traffic systems use static rather than optimal dynamic pricing. We address this question by analyzing the performance gap between static (simple) and dynamic (optimal) congestion pricing schemes in two canonical frameworks: Vickrey's bottleneck model with a public transit outside option and its city-scale extension based on the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD). In both models, we first characterize the revenue-optimal static and dynamic tolling policies, which have received limited attention in prior work. In the worst-case, revenue-optimal static tolls achieve at least half of the dynamic optimal revenue and at most twice the minimum achievable system cost across a wide range of practically relevant parameter regimes, with stronger and more general guarantees in the bottleneck model than in the MFD model. We further corroborate our theoretical guarantees with numerical results based on real-world datasets from the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City, which demonstrate that static tolls achieve roughly 80-90% of the dynamic optimal revenue while incurring at most a 8-20% higher total system cost than the minimum achievable system cost. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.21495 |
| By: | Jean-Claude Thill (UNC - University of North Carolina [Charlotte] - UNC - University of North Carolina System); Carlos Pais-Montes (Universidade de A Coruña, Instituto de Estudios Marítimos - parent); Thomas Leysens (AME - Département Aménagement, Mobilités et Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel); David Guerrero (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Liner shipping is often marked by operational regularities, with vessels operating on designated services calling at specific ports at specific times. Deviations from these patterns can be small and confined in space and in time, but they can also be much more consequential, like recent disruptions tied to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Red Sea crisis or the Panama Canal bottleneck. This underscores the necessity of understanding individual vessel trajectory configurations, monitoring vessel trajectories and identifying deviations from usual patterns prior to conducting aggregated analyses of vessel movements. This paper examines various visualization methods, including traditional 2D mapping and 3D space-time cubes, and concludes that the latter are often inadequate for visualizing vessel loops and deviations over extended time periods with enough detail to inform about vessel operations, shipping operators' strategies, and the scope of disruptions to supply chains. To overcome the limitations of existing methods, this paper introduces a novel approach based on linear referencing. Instead of relying on geographic coordinates, ports are sequenced by relative positions along a line feature that follows the coasts of various world regions consecutively. The resulting wave-like patterns, which represent time on one axis and a linear referencing of ports on the other, enable rapid identification of regular "waves" and of deviations in vessel trajectories and their magnitude within their geographic and temporal context. The new visualization method complements existing ones, as illustrated by select cases of vessels discussed in the paper. |
| Keywords: | port, transport geography, disruption, vessel trajectory, liner shipping, liner shipping vessel trajectory visualization disruption transport geography port containerization space-time, containerization, space-time, visualization |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05465967 |
| By: | Yang Jiao; Ting Lan; Yang Liu; Xinrui Zhao |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak. |
| Keywords: | Supply Chain Disruption; Port Congestion; Inflation; Price Dynamics |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/026 |
| By: | Filip Premik (Monash University); Dan Yu (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | We study how heterogeneity in capital inputs affects firm performance. Drawing on detailed data on municipal bus fleets in Poland, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation generated by public procurement and nationally coordinated sales behavior of bus manufacturers to identify the causal effects of variety in fleet composition across brands and other technical dimensions. More heterogeneous fleets exhibit lower vehicle utilization and, for a fixed level of output, require more units of capital and generate higher costs. Our results emphasize that the pro- ductive capacity of capital depends on its internal structure, not only on its aggregate quantity or value. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous capital, capital utilization, productivity , Fleet composition , organization of production |
| JEL: | D24 L23 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2026-03 |
| By: | Isabella Damiani (LIMEEP – PS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire sur les Mutations des Espaces Économiques et Politiques – Paris Saclay - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - Université Paris-Saclay); Marie Hiliquin (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role of Khorgos, a special economic zone located on the border between China and Kazakhstan, within the framework of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In less than a decade, Khorgos has become a strategic hub for rail freight between China and Europe, increasing from 25 trains in 2013 to more than 8, 700 in 2024, reflecting China's efforts to strengthen overland connectivity and establish alternative corridors to maritime trade. This paper, drawing on satellite data and spatial analysis through remote sensing, focuses on three main dimensions. First, it analyses the peripheral urbanisation of the city of Khorgos, which is embedded in China's territorial strategies to connect the western region to the rest of the country through infrastructure development, securitisation, and territorial control. Second, it situates Khorgos within a regional scale, namely the Khorgos-Yining-Qingshuihe economic complex. This analysis highlights the functional division of employment between Yining, the true administrative centre, Qingshuihe as the production core, and Khorgos, which remains primarily a transit point for Chinese exports, thereby illustrating an asymmetry in cross-border exchanges with Kazakhstan. Third, the paper examines territorial production and environmental differentiation. Remote sensing analyses reveal pronounced asymmetries in land use and ecological transformations between the Chinese and Kazakh sides of the border: China has developed a diversified and tightly regulated territorial model, combining urban and agricultural infrastructures, whereas the Kazakh side remains less structured and less developed. Chinese ecological initiatives, such as photovoltaic projects and urban greening policies, further reinforce cross-border territorial asymmetries and raise critical questions about the actual impacts of the BRI and the associated "win-win" cooperation rhetoric. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Urban planing, Borders, Kazakhstan, China, Belt Road Initiative, Khorgos |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05486194 |
| By: | Laura V. Clavijo Torres (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure in remote areas can transform rural economies, but its effects on credit markets and agricultural production remain poorly understood. By analyzing geolocated data on Colombia’s national road expansion and exploiting its staggered implementation, I show that road construction reduces governmentsupported productive credit by 13 percent while leaving total loan balance unchanged, indicating credit substitution from government programs toward private commercial lending rather than reduced credit access. Roads trigger substantial agricultural transformation: coca cultivation declines by 51 percent while cash crops expand by 13 percent, demonstrating that improved connectivity reshapes both production choices and financing needs. The effects are strongest in poorer, more rural, and initially isolated municipalities, with productive credit declining 70 percent more in below-median GDP areas, suggesting that infrastructure’s transformative impacts depend critically on baseline connectivity constraints. I also observe heterogeneous responses across agricultural suitability, with credit substitution concentrated in areas where roads make legal crops newly viable relative to coca. Finally, I find no systematic role for prior conflict exposure, indicating that infrastructure reshapes economic behavior through market integration rather than conflict legacies. |
| Keywords: | Roads, Rural credit, Coca cultivation, Crop substitution |
| JEL: | R42 O18 G21 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022252 |
| By: | Eugenie Dugoua; Joelle Noailly |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns and mechanisms of global clean technology diffusion over the last two decades. We document four stylized facts: uneven sectoral progress favoring power and light transport; China’s dominance in innovation and manufacturing; the role of modularity in driving cost declines; and limited adoption in developing economies. Through case studies of solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, we analyze how policy and infrastructure enable scale. Finally, we assess emerging challenges for the next phase of diffusion, including critical mineral constraints, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | Clean technology diffusion, Climate change mitigation, Renewable energy, Industrial policy, Solar photovoltaics, Electric vehicles, Hydrogen |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 O25 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wip:wpaper:95 |
| By: | Capucine-Marin Dubroca-Voisin (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - Université Gustave Eiffel - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, AREP Flux et Mobilités - AREP) |
| Abstract: | During Paris 2024 Games, pedestrian flow management in train stations was a major challenge. It was yet successful thanks to a combination of actions and factors that this presentation will explore. Notably, massive use of trained staff, cooperation of passengers, exceptional maintenance and operational resources, and a lower ridership than expected were amongst these key factors. |
| Keywords: | Paris, train stations, Olympic games, pedestrian flow management, pedestrian flow management Olympic games train stations Paris |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05436537 |
| By: | Yana Rodgers; Lisa Schur; Flora Hammond; Renee Edwards; Jennifer Cohen; Douglas Kruse |
| Abstract: | Background: Many workers with disabilities face negative stereotypical attitudes, pay gaps, and a lack of respect in the workplace, contributing to substantially lower job satisfaction compared to people without disabilities. Work from home may help to increase job satisfaction for people with disabilities. Objective: This study analyzes how different measures of job satisfaction vary between people with and without disabilities, and the extent to which working from home moderates the relationship between disability and job satisfaction. Methods: We use multivariable regression analysis to examine if the ability to work from home moderates the relationship between disability and indicators related to job satisfaction. The dataset draws on a novel survey of healthcare professionals. Results: Results show that people with disabilities have relatively greater turnover intentions, lower sense of organizational commitment and support, weaker perceptions of openness and inclusion in the workplace, and worse relations with management and coworkers. Regressions indicate that working from home helps to improve most perceptions of work experiences but does so more for people without disabilities than for people with disabilities. Conclusions: The findings suggest that (a) some accommodations typically viewed as exceptions to meet the needs of people with disabilities have even greater benefits for the workforce at large and (b) because workers with and without disabilities benefit from remote work, we cannot expect those accommodations to close the gaps caused by inequities. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.17790 |