nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2026–02–09
fourteen papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam


  1. Understanding Today’s Used Car Buyers Can Help Grow the Market for Used Electric Vehicles By Chakraborty, Debapriya PhD; Konstantinou, Theodora PhD; Gutierrez Lopez, Julia Beatriz PhD; Tal, Gil PhD
  2. Vehicle Automation May Require New Safety Policies By D'Agostino, Mollie C.
  3. Traffic Calming & Spillover Effects: An Analysis of Oakland’s Built Environment Approach to Traffic Safety By Pethani, Reetu; Tjiang, Leila
  4. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Drayage Trucks Can Advance California’s Climate Goals and Provide Health Benefits for Front Line Communities By Lipman, Timothy E. PhD; Collins, Stephanie; Horvath, Arpad PhD
  5. What Should Agencies Measure to Decide If Microtransit Is Working? By Hyland, Michael PhD; Watkins, Kari PhD; Shaheen, Susan PhD; Martin, Elliot PhD
  6. Balancing Safety and Equity in Traffic Enforcement: An Analysis of Automated Speed Enforcement in Oakland By Bernal, Declan; Horiike, Alisa; Mills, Jackson
  7. Partnering with Transportation Network Companies to Serve Low-Density Communities By Darling, Wesley PhD; Cassidy, Michael J. PhD
  8. Quantifying connectivity: the causal effect of railway accessibility on local industrial economic outcomes, France 1846-1865 By Precetti, Josephine
  9. Transit Improvements for the Oakland Department of Transportation By Torres, Andrea; Tran, Lisa; Wilson, Daniel
  10. Electrifying the Future: Assessing the Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Shift Toward EV Production in Morocco By Mahmoud Arbouch
  11. Looming Pilot Supply, Shortage and Proposed Solutions By Lucas Zarlengo
  12. Slippery Up and Sticky Down? An Analysis of the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax By Joshua McNamara
  13. Do lenders price diesel risk? Evidence from Dieselgate and low-emission zones in captive vs. independent banks By Beyene, Winta; Falagiarda, Matteo; Ongena, Steven; Scopelliti, Alessandro
  14. Sustainable urban rail integration: the case of the city of Maastricht By Coenen, Jo; Soete, Luc

  1. By: Chakraborty, Debapriya PhD; Konstantinou, Theodora PhD; Gutierrez Lopez, Julia Beatriz PhD; Tal, Gil PhD
    Abstract: New car sales is the primary metric for measuring electric vehicle (EV) adoption, however, monitoring transition to EVs overall will require knowing more about what is going on in the used car market. While there is limited research on used EV buyers, examining the characteristics and vehicle costs of individuals who currently purchase used vehicles could provide some helpful insights. Our research team explored the financial impact of a household that typically purchases a used car, choosing a used EV instead. To do this, we analyzed consumer survey data that tracks households’ expenditure on vehicle purchasing and operations on a national scale to identify why households opt for new versus used vehicles and the consequent cost of vehicle ownership.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt98n5h7sg
  2. By: D'Agostino, Mollie C.
    Abstract: Automation is ushering in a new era for motor vehicle safety. Vehicles equipped with Automated Driving Systems (ADS) are increasingly on our roadways. ADS systems typically include cameras, radar, LiDAR, artificial intelligence (AI) perception systems, data fusion, and neural network architectures. Research from UC Davis evaluated ADS-related safety policy, data collection, and human-machine interactions. The findings suggest that integrating ADS vehicles with existing infrastructure and operations will require updates to safety definitions, more robust oversight, and clearer regulatory andlegal frameworks.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt83z6q499
  3. By: Pethani, Reetu; Tjiang, Leila
    Abstract: Traffic calming is increasingly used by cities as a strategy to reduce speeding, improve safety, and support walking and biking on neighborhood streets. While many studies and evaluations focus on whether traffic calming is effective on the street where it is implemented, far less attention has been paid to what happens beyond the treated street. In practice, traffic calming interventions can influence driver behavior, traffic volumes, and perceptions of safety on nearby streets, producing spillover effects that can be positive, negative, or unevenly distributed. Understanding these spillover effects is especially important as cities like Oakland scale up neighborhood traffic calming programs as part of broader Vision Zero and Safe System strategies.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2025–12–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9dk9s1f0
  4. By: Lipman, Timothy E. PhD; Collins, Stephanie; Horvath, Arpad PhD
    Abstract: California has ambitious goals to introduce zero-emission technologies across various transportation sectors. Significant progress has been made over the past decades in deploying battery electric light-duty trucks, but heavy-duty diesel trucks are harder to “decarbonize” due to their operational demands and duty cycles, even though the benefits of replacing heavily polluting diesel trucks are significant. Front line communities where diesel vehicles operate the most, especially those near seaports and warehouses, bear the brunt of the pollution from these vehicles and stand to benefit the most from their electrification. Hydrogen fuel cell technology represents a promising approach for transitioning these trucks to zero-emission but the costs and benefits over time must be carefully considered.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2026–02–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt37f0x741
  5. By: Hyland, Michael PhD; Watkins, Kari PhD; Shaheen, Susan PhD; Martin, Elliot PhD
    Abstract: California state agencies, public transit agencies, and cities have invested in dozens of microtransit pilot programs, often with the stated goals of improving access, filling gaps in fixed-route public transit service, and serving communities that are difficult to reach by traditional bus or rail. As microtransit services mature, agencies increasingly face decisions about whether to expand, modify, or discontinue microtransit services—and how to allocate scarce operating funds across competing transit priorities.Despite growing investment, there is no consistent approach to measuring whether microtransit services are delivering meaningful benefits relative to their costs, or whether those benefits are equitably distributed. Without clear and well-balanced performance metrics, agencies risk drawing the wrong conclusions about success or failure.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6bh6n1p7
  6. By: Bernal, Declan; Horiike, Alisa; Mills, Jackson
    Abstract: This report evaluates Oakland’s speed camera pilot through a safety and equity lens, using a thorough academic literature review, descriptive analysis of Oakland Police Department stop data, spatial analysis of speeding-related crashes, regression models, and comparative case studies from San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Portland, Oregon. Findings show that officer-based traffic enforcement has deeply declined since 2020, leaving a large gap in traffic enforcement that automated cameras appear to be positioned to fill. Spatial analysis shows that speeding-related crashes are highly concentrated along major corridors in East Oakland and Hispanic/Latino communities experience higher exposure to the effects of speeding. Additionally, road width and speeding appear to have a very strong relationship, especially on Hegenberger Road. Our regression analyses indicate that camera placement is strongly associated with crashes, rather than race, income, or age alone—suggesting that Oakland’s implementation is largely data-driven. Our comparative case studies further demonstrate that automated speed enforcement can substantially reduce speeding across different U.S. municipalities.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2025–12–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2tf101rk
  7. By: Darling, Wesley PhD; Cassidy, Michael J. PhD
    Abstract: This study addresses the persistent challenge of delivering cost-effective, high-quality on-demand transit in low-density communities. Traditional microtransit services often struggle in such areas due to high fixed costs and limited opportunities to consolidate trips, while community partnerships with transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft are typically avoided due to concerns over data transparency and limited community control. To bridge this gap, we propose a new business plan for cooperative TNC partnerships, in which a community-appointed service manager coordinates trip requests, distributes financial incentives to attract drivers to the community from nearby high-demand areas, and leverages the TNC’s existing digital infrastructure for driver dispatch and routing. We evaluate this business plan through case studies of three Northern California communities presently served by microtransit, comparing microtransit’s measured performance against the predicted performance of a TNC operating under the proposed business plan using a simple metric that does not depend on the specific design of the transit system. Results show that TNCs can deliver higher levels of service and higher driver wages in all three communities and were more cost-effective than microtransit in two of the three. Applying the metric across California reveals that many communities with microtransit, and numerous other communities presently underserved by transit, would likely benefit from switching to TNC partnerships. This suggests that a large opportunity exists for using TNC partnerships to provide mobility in areas where other forms of transit are less effective.
    Keywords: Engineering, Demand responsive transportation, Public transit, Ridesourcing, Public private partnerships, Benefit cost analysis, Business models
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4q539746
  8. By: Precetti, Josephine
    Abstract: France’s railway expansion following the Law of 11 June 1842 significantly reshaped nationwide connectivity and economic opportunities. This dissertation investigates the causal impacts of railway access between 1846 and 1861 on city-level industrial development. Using a dataset combining industrial surveys with digitized railway records, it employs a robust Difference-in-Differences approach, leveraging the quasi-exogenous roll-out of the centrally planned ‘étoile de Legrand’ railway network. Empirical results show railway access increased industrial activity primarily extensively: railway-connected cities saw approximately a 20% rise in the number of factories and workers, especially in labour-intensive sectors like textile in Lille and ceramics in Limoges. Yet, intensive effects such as factory size, productivity, and wages remained statistically and economically negligible. Contrary to theoretical predictions from trade and New Economic Geography models, capital-intensive sectors, such as metallurgy in Lorraine, did not exhibit statistically significant responsiveness. These findings reframe the role of transport infrastructure from being a deterministic catalyst to being better understood as a conditional enabler. While railways expanded market potential, their short to medium term transformative impact critically depended on complementary institutional frameworks notably financial markets and property rights, technological readiness, and regional contexts. Acknowledging the historical data limitations, this study underscores that transport infrastructure alone is insufficient for structural economic upgrading without the appropriate institutional, technological, and human capital conditions in place at the right time.
    JEL: N73 R40
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129951
  9. By: Torres, Andrea; Tran, Lisa; Wilson, Daniel
    Abstract: We find that UBM has the potential to increase equity and accessibility for those who face barriers to accessing transit due to many factors including the cost. Additionally, we find that these kinds of programs can be impactful for those classified as “unbanked” or “underbanked”, who are low income at much higher rates than traditional banked folks. Though there are many benefits to these programs, they often have unreliable funding sources that can make it difficult to make these programs long-term. In the case of OakDOT’s UBM program, we find that it is mostly funded through grants. Within this report, we seek to look into ways that OakDOT can better fund its UBM program in the hopes of making it a permanent program. Additionally, we find that there are other ways that Oakland may be able to expand their UBM program that would greatly benefit the region. Through our case studies of the cities of Los Angeles, California and Portland, Oregon, we find the ways in which they are conducting their programs as well as how they have leveraged funding to create a robust UBM program.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2025–12–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt02g3k8b4
  10. By: Mahmoud Arbouch
    Abstract: This paper assesses the economic and environmental implications of Morocco’s strategic transition from internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) manufacturing to electric vehicle (EV) production, with a particular focus on the regional impacts of localizing high-value battery manufacturing. Using an interregional input-output model, extended with environmental satellite accounts, the study simulates a structural shock related to the wholesale substitution of ICEV-specific inputs with EV-specific components. The results highlight substantial macroeconomic gains, including a 1.9% increase in national GDP and positive employment growth, particularly in Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, and Casablanca-Settat. However, these benefits are regionally concentrated, exposing the risk of deepening spatial inequalities. Additionally, while the transition enhances Morocco’s position in global green value chains, it also induces a measurable rise in carbon dioxide emissions, especially in industrial and phosphate-rich regions. The prospect of economic advancement accompanied by environmental degradation raises critical concerns about policy alignment between industrial growth and energy decarbonization.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp17_25
  11. By: Lucas Zarlengo (Capitol Technology University, United States)
    Abstract: A pilot shortage issue has been raised several times over the past few decades, although several things have continued to change, such as the growing demand for air travel, fewer pilots in training, and the increased time required to become eligible to fly for airlines. Recent research and industry reports have identified a larger gap in the expected shortage of pilots. This finding is verified through the United States Federal Aviation Administration’s Civil Airmen data. The key finding is that the gap between available pilots and airline needs continues to widen. Regional airlines have considered pay to be an issue and have made adjustments, however, this is likely to be only a shortterm solution. The COVID-19 pandemic may have delayed some of the issues, however. This paper details the historic and current challenges the industry faces with pilot availability, provides future projections, and outlines potential solutions that may help address the shortage.
    Keywords: pilot shortage, airline shortage, airline pilot shortage, airline pilot supply
    Date: 2025–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0571
  12. By: Joshua McNamara (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether retail fuel prices in New Zealand adjust asymmetrically to cost shocks, using the introduction and repeal of the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax (ARFT) as a natural experiment. The ARFT imposed a 10 cents-per-litre levy on fuel sold in Auckland from July 2018 to June 2024, while neighbouring regions remained untaxed. Exploiting these sharp and opposite policy changes, the analysis employs a difference-in-differences framework using daily, station-level fuel price data from Auckland, Northland, and Waikato. At the aggregate level, fuel prices increased by 10.8 cents per litre following the tax introduction and fell by 11.6 cents per litre after its repeal, indicating near-complete and symmetric pass-through on average. However, substantial spatial heterogeneity emerges when local competitive conditions are considered. Among stations located close to competitors operating under a different tax regime, prices rose almost fully after the tax was introduced but fell by only around three-quarters as much following its removal. Distance-based interaction estimates confirm that pass-through varies systematically with proximity to oppositely treated competitors, consistent with localised asymmetric price transmission driven by spatial competition. These findings show that while fuel prices may adjust symmetrically on average, asymmetric adjustment can persist in local markets, with important implications for the incidence of regional fuel taxes and their repeal.
    Keywords: asymmetric price transmission; price transmission; fuel tax; spatial competition; difference-indifferences; retail fuel prices
    JEL: L11 H22 Q41 R12
    Date: 2026–02–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:26/01
  13. By: Beyene, Winta; Falagiarda, Matteo; Ongena, Steven; Scopelliti, Alessandro
    Abstract: Transitioning to a sustainable economy and reducing air pollution hinge on appropriate economic incentives and financing conditions. The auto loan market offers a prime setting, as lenders' credit terms can either discourage or incentivize the purchase of high-pollution vehicles. Using loan-level data, we examine how captive and independent banks adjust lending conditions in response to information and regulatory shocks affecting diesel vehicles. Exploiting the 2015 diesel emissions scandal and the introduction of local circulation restrictions, we show that lending responses differ systematically across lender types, with captive banks tending to weaken, rather than reinforce, the effectiveness of environmental regulation for air pollution.
    Keywords: Car Loans, Captive Banks, Independent Banks, Diesel Emissions Scandal, Car Circulation Restrictions
    JEL: G21 G51 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:335886
  14. By: Coenen, Jo; Soete, Luc (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn)
    Abstract: Rail integration in the urban setting of medium-sized border cities, as in the case of the old medieval town of Maastricht with its relatively small city centre, raises many challenges. The physical space occupied by underutilized rail tracks in the centre of the city is huge, occupying proportionally a substantial part of the centre city’s surface. The “urban rail integration” proposal detailed here can be considered an example of how to implement sustainable mobility transformation in medium to small cities. Up to now, large cities have taken the lead in implementing European Green Deal goals such as decarbonization, renewable energy transformation and circular economy. A smaller city such as Maastricht can add to this “large city” lead in sustainable development by focusing on what is specific, one could say unique, to its own urban development potential: in this case, the particular large availability of so-called non-descript rail space in the centre of the city offering a unique opportunity for sustainable urban rail integration. How to monetize the advantages of such integration is a discussion which takes place in many medium sized cities in Europe. In large cities, the pressure of the densely populated areas in the city is such that rail integration proposals find relatively easily public policy support, even if the complexity in carrying out such urban rail integration involves complex infrastructural interventions. In medium sized cities, the necessity of these more radical interventions is no longer led by rail mobility demand, rather it will have to emerge out of alternative, local funding mechanism such as leaseholds. Maastricht represents an ideal example for such situations.
    Keywords: transport infrastructure, urban rail integration, leaseholds, local housing
    JEL: O18 L92 R31 R58
    Date: 2026–01–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2026002

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