nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2026–01–12
thirteen papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam


  1. The Impact of Dynamic Prices on Electric Vehicle Public Charging Demand: Evidence from a Nationwide Natural Field Experiment By Louise Bernard; Andy Hackett; Robert D. Metcalfe; Luca Panzone; Andrew Schein
  2. Electrifying Off-Road Equipment Remains a Heavy Lift By Hardman, Scott PhD; Karanam, Vaishnavi PhD
  3. Emissions from manufacturing in the autos sector: discussion paper By Hastreiter, Nikolaus; Begley, Alfie; Dietz, Simon
  4. School Transportation and Its Impacts on Caregivers in The Bahamas By Scholl, Lynn; Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando; Oviedo, Daniel; Casas-Cortes, Camila; Chea, Llando
  5. Effect of Informational Interventions on EV Adoption Intention: Evidence from a Tier II City in India By Pranshu Raghuvanshi; Anjula Gurtoo
  6. The Dial-a-Ride Problem with Synchronized Visits By Boshuai Zhao; Jakob Puchinger; Roel Leus
  7. Fair market value of used capacity assets: Forecasts for repurposed electric vehicle batteries By Bach, Amadeus; Onori, Simona; Reichelstein, Stefan; Zhuang, Jihan
  8. Roads and Climate Resilience in Informal Food Industries: Evidence from India By Poudel, Dixit; Gopinath, Munisamy
  9. Transportation Disruptions and Corn Basis Volatility along the Mississippi River By Quaye, Leonard-Allen A.; Stewart, Shamar; Massa, Olga Isengildina
  10. Evaluating the Digital Divide in Public Transport Services: A Natural Language Processing Analysis of User Experiences in Birmingham By Lu, Huafeng; Zhang, Lei; Gullino, Silvia; Triviño, Miguel Hincapié
  11. Cold chain logistics: the case of Paraguay and territories along the bioceanic corridor By Aguayo, Rocío; Rodríguez Laconich, Mical; Salinas, Roberto
  12. High-Risk Drivers and Road-Safety Governance in Italy: A Behavioural and Policy Perspective By Anna Pettini; Teresa Nobile; Ester Macrì
  13. The EV transition: the impact of the EU battery directive on critical material supply, recycling and battery costs By Fumany, Malene; Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Li, Nanxi; Elliott, Robert J.R.; Lander, Laura

  1. By: Louise Bernard; Andy Hackett; Robert D. Metcalfe; Luca Panzone; Andrew Schein
    Abstract: Understanding how to effectively influence electric vehicle (EV) charging behavior is critical for managing electricity grids powered by high levels of variable renewable generation. We present results from a large-scale natural field experiment conducted in the United Kingdom, involving approximately 110, 000 EV customers and 60% of the country’s public charging infrastructure. Within this network, we applied a price decrease to approximately one-fifth of chargers to bring their prices closer to the marginal cost of electricity in low-cost hours in Great Britain. Customers were randomly assigned to different price levels, allowing us to estimate the causal effect of price on charging demand and derive elasticities of short-run behavioral responses. Customers were highly responsive to price: a 40% reduction in charging costs increased platform-wide charging activity by 117%, while a 15% price cut led to a 30% increase. Decomposing the increase in charging, we estimate that approximately half reflected substitution between charging apps. Our findings suggest that dynamic pricing for public EV charging generated large consumer welfare gains.
    JEL: Q4
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34600
  2. By: Hardman, Scott PhD; Karanam, Vaishnavi PhD
    Abstract: California has ambitious electrification goals which include the electrification of 100% of off-road vehicles and equipment “where feasible.” While light duty vehicle electrification is progressing—25% of new car sales are now electric and the charging infrastructure is expanding—progress on electrifying off-road equipment, such as construction machinery, has been much slower. To better understand the barriers and opportunities, we conducted interviews with 16 stakeholders, including construction firms, equipment manufacturers, rental companies, public agencies, other researchers, and nonprofits. Their insights highlight the technical, economic, and social challenges facing this sector, as well as potential strategies to accelerate adoption.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7f3415ks
  3. By: Hastreiter, Nikolaus; Begley, Alfie; Dietz, Simon
    Abstract: This discussion paper examines the role of production emissions – specifically those arising from materials and manufacturing – in car manufacturers’ carbon footprints and emissions reduction targets. The current Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) Carbon Performance (CP) methodology for the automotive sector focuses on tailpipe (Scope 3 Category 11) emissions, which remain the largest contributor to lifecycle emissions for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs). However, as the industry shifts toward electric vehicles (EVs), a growing share of emissions is associated with upstream activities, including vehicle and battery production. The paper identifies substantial gaps and inconsistencies in how car manufacturers disclose manufacturing-related emissions. While most companies report Scope 1 and 2 emissions – covering direct and energy-related emissions from their own operations – at a group level, data on Scope 3 Category 1 emissions, which cover upstream supply chain activities, is sparse and inconsistent. Disclosure specific to passenger cars is even rarer. This limited data availability poses challenges for external stakeholders seeking to assess companies’ full emissions profiles and decarbonisation strategies. To address this, the paper proposes a preliminary approach to incorporate production emissions into TPI’s current CP methodology. Using IEA global average emissions factors and sales data for four major manufacturers – BMW, General Motors (GM), BYD, and Tesla – the analysis shows that including production emissions in companies’ historical carbon footprints and decarbonisation targets leads to a deterioration in alignment with low-carbon scenarios, particularly over the long term. These findings underscore the materiality of production emissions to car manufacturers’ decarbonisation strategies. They also highlight the narrowing gap between mixed ICE/EV producers and pure EV companies when upstream emissions are considered. A narrow focus on tailpipe emissions therefore may not comprehensively capture companies’ climate actions. The paper concludes with recommendations for investors to engage with companies to improve disclosure, support standardised reporting, and encourage comprehensive target-setting that includes production emissions.
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130650
  4. By: Scholl, Lynn; Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando; Oviedo, Daniel; Casas-Cortes, Camila; Chea, Llando
    Abstract: In Nassau, The Bahamas, ensuring children's access to school carries significant implications for the wellbeing of both children and their caregivers. This study investigates these impacts, examining how challenges and the burdens associated with school transportation affect caregivers' labour market participation, time use, and overall well-being, particularly for women who constitute 83% of our sample. We adopt a mixed-methods approach, drawing on qualitative insights from interviews and focus groups, complemented by descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis of survey data from 477 caregivers. Our findings reveal significant impacts: school transport duties constrain caregivers' ability to work, forcing adaptations like reduced hours, job changes, tardiness, or requests for flexibility, while simultaneously fragmenting daily time budgets and limiting opportunities for rest or self-care. Caregivers, especially women and those with disabilities, report considerable physical and mental stress, although many still value the commute as family or activity time. High anxiety about childrens safety during commutes further compounds these burdens. While potential solutions like group walking and school bus services garner interest, particularly among car-less households, significant concerns about safety and supervision, especially regarding gender-based violence, hinder widespread acceptance. This paper underscores the profound, often gendered, consequences of inadequate school transport systems, highlighting the urgent need for supportive, co-produced policies that address logistical challenges and caregiver well-being to foster more equitable access to education and opportunities.
    Keywords: School mobility;Caregiver;labor participation;Time use;Well-being
    JEL: I23 I28 R40 R48
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14445
  5. By: Pranshu Raghuvanshi (India Institute of Science, Bangalore, India); Anjula Gurtoo (India Institute of Science, Bangalore, India)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effectiveness of targeted informational interventions on electric vehicle adoption intention. A randomised controlled field experiment with three treatment groups and a control group was used to study the effectiveness of three informational interventions. Participants in each treatment group received a distinct informational intervention: cost-based, range-based, and norm-based. Two of the three interventions (range-based and norm-based), designed to reduce behavioural and psychological barriers, were found to be significant. The cost-based intervention was not significant, suggesting that financial motives alone may not be sufficient to lead to an increase in the adoption of electric vehicles. The significant effect observed for the range-based and norm-based interventions suggests that the discomfort related to the technology must be addressed, and social norms can be effectively utilised to promote electric vehicles at low cost. Although adoption is not guaranteed with self-reported intentions, the findings suggest that carefully framed informational interventions guide behavioural intentions towards sustainable technologies. The most significant contribution of the study is to the literature on demand-side policy instruments, which suggests that financial incentives can be complemented by other informational interventions to accelerate the adoption of sustainable mobility.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.00408
  6. By: Boshuai Zhao; Jakob Puchinger; Roel Leus
    Abstract: The limited capacity of drones and future one- or two-seat modular vehicles requires multiple units to serve a single large customer (i.e., a customer whose demand exceeds a single vehicle's capacity) simultaneously, whereas small customers (i.e., those whose demand can be served by a single vehicle) can be consolidated in one trip. This motivates the Dial-a-Ride Problem with Synchronized Visits, where a fleet of drones must be routed and scheduled to transport orders at minimum cost. We propose four formulations: arc-based, event-based, time-space event-based (TSEF), and time-space fragment-based (TSFrag). An event is defined as a tuple of a location and a set of onboard customers, while a fragment represents a partial path. For TSEF and TSFrag, we also employ the dynamic discretization discovery (DDD) algorithm, which iteratively refines an initial low-resolution time-space network to obtain a continuous-time optimal solution. Computational results show that the event-based formulation performs best under low request intensity (few customers per unit time), whereas TSFrag with DDD excels with high request intensity; both substantially outperform the arc-based formulation. When implemented with DDD, TSFrag also requires less time and fewer iterations than TSEF. We also apply our methods to the classical dial-a-ride problem, where we find that that TSFrag with DDD can replace callbacks in case of high request intensity, and that using DDD is more beneficial to this problem than to the pickup-and-delivery problem with time windows.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.00498
  7. By: Bach, Amadeus; Onori, Simona; Reichelstein, Stefan; Zhuang, Jihan
    Abstract: In response to growing economic and environmental concerns, companies in a range of industries seek to repurpose products (assets) that retain functional capacity beyond their initial first life. This paper examines a generic valuation model for used capacity assets that can either be recycled immediately or repurposed for a second life application. We apply our model framework to lithium-ion batteries retired from electric vehicles, as these assets typically retain substantial energy storage capacity at the end of their first life. Our analysis focuses on two battery chemistries: lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and nickel-cobalt-based (NCX).We project their future fair market values in the United States and China. Our findings indicate that repurposing LFP batteries will be economically viable in both countries for the coming decade. In contrast, for most NCX batteries immediate recycling will soon be preferable due to their more valuable raw material content and shorter usable lives.
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:333927
  8. By: Poudel, Dixit; Gopinath, Munisamy
    Abstract: While road infrastructure is widely recognized as a driver of economic development, can it also aid in disaster resilience? This paper investigates whether India’s national highway corridors—the Golden Quadrilateral and the North-South and East-West—can buffer production losses from extreme floods in informal manufacturing. Motivated by a structural model of disaster resilience at the plant level, the study examines the effects of dual and staggered treatments: floods and roads. It combines geospatially matched, staggered flood exposure data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory with phased highway rollout timelines from the National Highways Authority of India and repeated cross-section survey data (1990–2016) on Indian informal manufacturing. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of flood exposure and road construction, the study implements a stacked difference-in-differences design, matching treated districts to future treated counterparts. Results show that floods significantly reduce both gross output and value added, while highway access counteracts those losses. Plants located directly on completed highway segments nearly neutralize the average 7 percent flood-related output loss, benefiting from both higher output and lower input expenditures—labor, materials, and energy. These effects are magnified for plants that own transport equipment, highlighting a complementarity between internal logistics and external infrastructure. Off-highway plants exhibit similar resilience only when they possess transport assets, enabling access to distant road networks. Overall, the findings reveal that roads are not only engines of development but also critical enablers of resilience. Designing infrastructure with this dual function—development and resilience—is essential for building a climate-smart and resilient informal production economy.
    Keywords: International Development
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360978
  9. By: Quaye, Leonard-Allen A.; Stewart, Shamar; Massa, Olga Isengildina
    Abstract: This study investigates how river-based transportation costs, particularly barge freight rates, influence corn basis along the Mississippi River. The corn basis (the difference between local cash and futures prices) captures key pricing dynamics affected by both local conditions and broader logistical networks. Using weekly data from 2014 to 2024, we apply a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with spatial and time fixed effects to account for both local and spillover effects across markets. Two model specifications are estimated: one assuming directionally constrained spatial spillovers, consistent with downstream trade patterns, and another allowing for unconstrained spatial interactions. The results show that an increase in barge freight rates is associated with a decline in the local corn basis, underscoring the negative impact of rising transportation costs on prices paid at origin. Moreover, significant spillover effects reveal that barge rate changes in one region affect basis values in adjacent markets, indicating that transportation shocks propagate spatially. The analysis also highlights how river navigability and localized energy price variation contribute to basis volatility, depending on how spatial relationships are structured. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of infrastructure, costs, and spatial connectivity in grain pricing. This research offers important insights for policymakers, producers, and traders seeking to manage transportation risks and improve market efficiency in the agricultural sector.
    Keywords: Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361205
  10. By: Lu, Huafeng; Zhang, Lei (University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf); Gullino, Silvia; Triviño, Miguel Hincapié
    Abstract: Digitalisation has transformed public transport services worldwide, yet disparities in access, skills, and outcomes continue to reinforce a digital divide in how citizens engage with these services. While previous studies have examined the digital divide in internet use and smart technologies, few have explored how these inequalities manifest in everyday interactions with digital public transport platforms. To this end, we investigated user experiences of public transport applications in Birmingham, whose digital inclusion is disproportionate to its status as a major urban and economic hub in the UK, by analysing 4, 275 user reviews on public transport services collected from the Apple App Store and Google Play Store between 2016 and 2025. Using a mixed natural language processing (NLP) approach combining topic modelling and sentiment analysis, we identified key themes and emotional tones in user feedback. Results revealed three dominant topics: App Performance, Usability, and Service Satisfaction, each corresponding to the access, ability, and motivation dimensions of the digital divide. Sentiment analysis showed generally negative evaluations, particularly around technical access barriers and satisfaction issues. By integrating user-generated data with digital divide theory, these results provide novel empirical evidence of how inequalities in digital engagement persist within digital twin planning and smart city transport systems, and highlight the importance of inclusive digital design for equitable and sustainable mobility access.
    Date: 2025–12–15
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hmvgt_v1
  11. By: Aguayo, Rocío; Rodríguez Laconich, Mical; Salinas, Roberto
    Abstract: This report analyzes the current state of cold chain logistics in Paraguay, with a specific focus on the departments of Alto Paraguay and Boquerón, two key regions located along the Bioceanic Corridor. The study maps the structure and capacity of the cold chain infrastructure, including refrigerated transport fleets, storage facilities, airport and port infrastructure, as well as the national vaccine distribution system. It also identifies logistical bottlenecks and infrastructure gaps that affect the efficient storage and distribution of temperature-sensitive products. The findings highlight that Paraguay has a functional baseline infrastructure for cold chain logistics, although its cold storage and transportation capacity is largely concentrated in the central region. Additionally, public ports currently lack refrigerated storage, and airports offer only minimal infrastructure for short-term handling. Nevertheless, the cold chain is not perceived as a constraint to the current production levels of refrigerated and frozen products. Similarly, it does not appear to pose an obstacle to potential increases or the development of new products in any region of the country. Lastly, the report presents a set of public policy recommendations and investment priorities to strengthen Paraguay’s cold chain. These include expanding infrastructure in underserved regions, developing credit lines for cold chain projects, designating a specific institution for licensing refrigerated chambers, centralizing existing records into a unified database, and offering specialized training courses for the cold chain. Closing the existing gaps could reduce post-harvest losses, enhance the resilience of the health system, and strengthen Paraguay as a competitive logistics hub in the Southern Cone.
    Date: 2025–12–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:84524
  12. By: Anna Pettini; Teresa Nobile; Ester Macrì
    Abstract: This study uses an integrated analysis of survey data from 1, 060 participants to examine driver attitudes and behaviours regarding road safety in Italy. Cluster analysis identified distinct driver profiles and significant geographical disparities. A high-risk subgroup (25% of respondents) was found, characterized by high self-confidence and low responsibility; younger age emerged as a key correlate. The misalignment between perceived and actual safety highlights the need for evidence-based policies. The study advocates an integrated approach combining targeted education, data-driven enforcement, and strategic infrastructure investment to advance Vision Zero goals.
    Keywords: road safety governance, driver responsibility, public administration, Vision Zero, cluster analysis, policy design
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12354
  13. By: Fumany, Malene; Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Li, Nanxi; Elliott, Robert J.R.; Lander, Laura
    Abstract: Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the European Union's (EU) Net Zero strategies. Yet, rising regulatory pressures and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of supply chain bottlenecks for strategic and critical materials such as nickel and cobalt, posing threats not only to the EU's decarbonisation agenda but also to global Net Zero ambitions. In response, EU policymakers have accelerated efforts to develop local battery ecosystems including the recycling of end-of-life LIBs. However, the potential impact of these interventions on material dependencies and battery economics is not well understood. This paper introduces a novel policy-economic framework to assess the prospective evolution of the LIB recycling sector in response to policy changes introduced by the EU Battery Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1542). In particular, drawing on an industry-led survey, the framework evaluates the impact of the mandated minimum recycled content on material flow and battery costs. The results reveal that the Battery Regulation may increase battery cell costs by up to 15 %. While this study is EU-specific, its findings carry broader relevance for international battery policy and market dynamics and provides new evidence on how international policies may impact the future of the battery sector.
    Keywords: policy-economic framework; battery recycling; battery costs; critical minerals; EU battery regulation
    JEL: R48 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130801

This nep-tre issue is ©2026 by Erik Teodoor Verhoef. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.