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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Nico Lukas Kasparetz |
| Abstract: | Old diesel cars without modern emissions control technology substantially contribute to air pollution by emitting high amounts of fine particulate matter, which is known to be detrimental to human health. Periodic vehicle registration fees offer a potentially powerful lever to speed up the retirement of old and polluting vehicles, yet little empirical evidence exists on the matter. This paper analyzes how higher registration fees for old and polluting diesel vehicles in the Netherlands accelerate their outflow from the vehicle fleet. It leverages the staggered rollout of diesel particulate filters as factory-fitted equipment to create quasi-random variation in pollution levels across otherwise comparable diesel car models. By applying Synthetic Difference-in-Differences complemented with a hazard model, this paper establishes that the tax increase on old and polluting cars is effective at reducing their numbers, albeit at the cost of being a very regressive policy. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle Retirement, Particulate Matter Emissions, Vehicle Registration Fee, Difference-in-Differences, Survival Analysis, Policy evaluation, The Netherlands, Vehicle Taxes, Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies |
| JEL: | H23 L62 Q52 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_721 |
| By: | Katharina Ledebur (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Ladislav Bartuska (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Klaus Friesenbichler; Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria) |
| Abstract: | The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by the electrification of powertrains, the rise of software-defined vehicles, and the adoption of circular economy concepts. These trends are increasingly blurring the boundaries between the automotive sector and other industries. The pace of adaptation to electrification varies considerably between regions and firms. Unlike internal combustion engine (ICE) production, where mechanical capabilities dominated, competitiveness in electric vehicle (EV) production increasingly depends on expertise in electronics, batteries, and software. This study investigates whether and how firms' ability to leverage cross-industry diversification contributes to their competitive advantage in this evolving landscape. We develop a country-level product space covering all industries, and an industry-specific product space covering over 900 automotive components. This allows us to identify clusters of parts which are exported together, revealing shared manufacturing capabilities. Closeness centrality in the country-level product space, rather than simple proximity, is a strong predictor of where new comparative advantages are likely to emerge. First, we examine this relationship across all industrial sectors to establish general patterns of path dependency, diversification and capability formation. Then, we focus specifically on the electric vehicle (EV) transition. It is argued that new strengths in vehicles and aluminum products in the EU will generate 5 and 4.6 times more EV-specific strengths, respectively, than other EV-relevant sectors over the next decade. In contrast, these sectors are expected to generate only 1.6 and 4.5 new strengths, respectively, in already diversified China. A different pattern emerges when these country-level results are compared to the firm-level product space. Countries such as South Korea, China, the USA and Canada show the greatest potential for diversification into EV-related products. Established producers in the EU are likely to come under pressure. These findings suggest that the success of the automotive transformation will depend on the ability of regions to mobilize existing industrial capabilities, particularly in related sectors such as machinery and electronic equipment. |
| Keywords: | diversification, car industry, automotive, electric cars, supply chains, network, product space, regions, firms, transition, complexity |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:717 |
| By: | Kyung-In Hwang (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The South Korean battery industry is navigating a period of significant difficulty. Corporate performance has deteriorated sharply in the wake of the so-called “EV chasm, ” a period in which the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has slowed. Global market share is trending downward, and the United States has rolled back policies that support EV adoption even as Korean firms pursue massive investments in EV and battery production stateside. These three factors are causally interlinked.<p> First, even as overall EV demand has contracted, relative demand for cost-effective, mid-to-low-range EVs has expanded. This phenomenon has meant that Chinese-made lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batterymakers have gained market share, while demand for Korea's ternary batteries has declined. Second, the EV chasm has been most severe in Europe, where EV and battery sales plummeted in countries that rolled back their subsidy programs, with the drop occurring immediately after the policy changes took effect. EVs are still more expensive than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts, and government subsidies have been essential to bridging the price gap; the elimination or reduction of these subsidies in many countries has had a direct impact on battery demand. Third, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in the US brought an end to the EV purchase tax credit. This too will inevitably have a negative impact on the Korean battery industry. In Europe, EV sales fell by 27 percent in Germany and three percent in France after those countries rolled back their EV subsidies; the US market is highly likely to follow a similar path. Furthermore, even the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC) — which remains in effect — will be negatively affected, because if declining sales lead Korean firms to cut production in the US, the value of their AMPC benefits will decline in sync. However, the OBBBA also made it much more difficult for Chinese firms to enter US supply chains and benefit from the AMPC, meaning a European-style loss of market share to China is unlikely.<p> To overcome this confluence of challenges and build on past successes, what measures should the Korean battery industry take? The most urgent task is undoubtedly to stimulate a recovery in the EV market by enhancing battery performance and lowering costs through technological and process innovation. This paper, however, proposes a complementary strategy: to proactively create and capture new sources of demand beyond the EV sector. Military drones and humanoid robots are prime examples. These emerging sectors share three key characteristics: they are poised to evolve into massive markets, are central arenas in the US-China technology rivalry, and, most importantly, they require high-performance batteries. Thus, they hold immense market potential for Korean companies. |
| Keywords: | batteries; battery industry; secondary batteries; energy storage systems; ESS, high-performance batteries; Korean batteries; Korean battery industry; South Korea; China; Chinese batteries; Chinese bat |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 Q55 L65 L64 L62 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:021836 |
| By: | Tiznado-Aitken, Ignacio; Singer, Matan; Morency, Catherine; Hassan, Howaida; Morissette, Samuel Duhaime; Verreault, Hubert; Palm, Matthew; Farber, Steven |
| Abstract: | Transport poverty is a complex, multidimensional issue that remains loosely defined and inadequately measured. Persistent challenges related to data quality, consistency, and comparability, highlighted by the European Commission, continue to limit effective policymaking. Despite increasing attention to equity in transport research and practice, most countries still lack standardized national datasets that can capture the scale and severity of transport poverty. This paper presents the design and implementation of the first large-scale survey on transport poverty and transport-related social exclusion worldwide, developed by the Mobilizing Justice Partnership across all of Canada. We describe a multi-phase process involving collaborative workshops, input from a community advisory group, a pilot study, and a robust data collection strategy, including a comprehensive sampling and weighting process. The resulting dataset, covering over 27, 000 respondents and openly available to researchers, decision-makers, and the public, offers extensive spatial and demographic coverage, enabling robust and policy-relevant analysis. A snapshot of findings reveals pronounced socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in Canada. Car ownership remains substantially lower among lower-income Canadians (under 70%) compared to higher-income groups (94%), while transit pass possession is more common among lower-income respondents. Approximately one in four participants experience modal dissonance, though its prevalence does not differ by income; instead, reasons behind this mismatch vary, with lower-income groups citing affordability constraints, whereas higher-income groups attribute mismatches to convenience and time considerations. Significant disparities in perceived safety were observed across gender, with non-binary individuals reporting the lowest levels of perceived safety, followed by women, and men reporting the highest. Satisfaction with transport conditions increases with age, with younger groups reporting consistently lower satisfaction. Racial disparities were evident in reported employment impacts, as Indigenous respondents and visible minorities were more likely to report declining job opportunities due to transport barriers. Housing affordability concerns were most acute among recent immigrants, who more frequently reported spending beyond their means on housing. Spatial analyses further demonstrate strong geographic variability in transport disadvantage, particularly in patterns of forced car ownership, suggesting the need for further exploration into the sociodemographic characteristics of this phenomenon, moving beyond solely built environment factors. Finally, accessibility to everyday destinations generally improves with city size, with larger metropolitan areas offering more consistent access than smaller towns and non-CMA areas. |
| Date: | 2025–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j2pkm_v1 |
| By: | Frederik von Waldow; Heike Link |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses determinants of pass-through for Germany’s 2022 temporary fuel discount at its implementation and subsequent termination. Based on a unique dataset of fuel station characteristics and prices, we employ a two-stage Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) methodology to estimate spatial pass-through variation. Our findings indicate that horizontal and vertical market structures exert an asymmetric influence on tax pass-through. Competitive pressure enhances price responsiveness to tax reductions, whereas we find the opposite pattern for the tax increase. Furthermore, independence from upstream markets is associated with lower tax pass-through, indicating the presence of double marginalization. |
| Keywords: | gasoline prices, fuel taxation, spatial competition, tax pass-through, regression discontinuity in time |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwddc:dd116 |
| By: | Garcia Barranco, Maria del Carmen; Perez Mesa, Juan Carlos; Hernández Rubio, Jesús |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a scoping review of the literature on innovative business models (BM) in the context of intermodal transport of perishable goods, with a particular focus on short sea shipping (SSS). It explores the ongoing reluctance of supply chain stakeholders to adopt modal shift strategies, despite well-documented environmental and social benefits. To address this challenge, the study proposes the BM concept as a strategic and operational tool to bridge the gap between vision and implementation, particularly within the agri-food sector, where supply chain management is critical. The review reveals a strong prevalence of BM oriented toward digitalization and collaboration to enhance intermodal logistics. However, it also identifies a notable gap in models that address externality reduction and improvements in service quality. Those two dimensions are especially relevant for the successful implementation of intermodal solutions for perishable products. |
| Keywords: | Business model; innovation; intermodality; supply chain; perishables. |
| JEL: | L91 M21 O33 Q13 Q18 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126124 |
| By: | Gustavo Berganti\~nos; Leticia Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | The International Air Transport Association (IATA) states that the revenue from interline tickets must be shared among the different airlines according to a weighted system. We analyze this problem following an axiomatic approach, and our theoretical results support IATA's procedure. Our first result justifies the use of a weighted system, but it does not specify which weights should be applied. Assuming that the weights are fixed, we provide several results that further support the use of IATA's mechanism. Finally, we provide results for the case in which all flights can be considered equivalent and no weighting is required. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.10418 |
| By: | Yitian Wang; Joaquin Vespignani; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | recycling, stockpiling, critical minerals, EV battery |
| JEL: | Q38 Q41 Q32 F51 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-70 |
| By: | Gaurav Khanna; Carlos Medina; Anant Nyshadham; Daniel Ramos-Menchelli; Jorge Tamayo; Audrey Tiew |
| Abstract: | Neighborhoods are strong determinants of both economic opportunity and criminal activity. Does improving connectedness between segregated and unequal parts of a city predominantly import opportunity or export crime? We use a spatial general equilibrium framework to model individual decisions of where to work and whether to engage in criminal activity, with spillovers across the criminal and legitimate sectors. We match at the individual level various sources of administrative records from Medellín, Colombia, to construct a novel, granular dataset recording the origin and destination of both workers and criminals. We leverage the rollout of a cable car in an event study design, and show how access to transit lines reduces criminal participation and induces legitimate employment. We identify key parameters of the model, informing how changes in transportation costs causally affect the location and sector choices of workers and criminals. Our counterfactual exercises indicate that, when improving the connectedness of neighborhoods, overall criminal activity in the city is reduced, and total welfare is improved. *****RESUMEN: Los vecindarios son importantes determinantes tanto de las oportunidades económicas como de la actividad criminal. Mejorar la conectividad de vecindarios segregados y pobres, con el resto de la ciudad, importará oportunidades a esos vecindarios, o exportará crimen desde ellos? Nosotros utilizamos un modelo de equilibrio general para modelar las decisiones individuales de dónde trabajar y de si involucrarse en actividades criminales, incorporando efectos sobre los sectores criminal y legal. Construimos una novedosa base de datos a nivel individual con base en varios registros administrativos de Medellín, Colombia, que incluye el origen y el destino tanto de los empleados como de los criminales. Nosotros provechamos la construcción de varias líneas de cable del Metro de Medellín, y mostramos cómo el acceso a las estaciones conectadas por estos cables reduce la participación en actividades criminales e incrementa el empleo formal. También identificamos varios parámetros del modelo que nos permiten estimar, cómo los cambios en los costos del transporte, afectan de forma causal, la ubicación y la elección sectorial, de empleados y criminales. Nuestro ejercicio contrafactual indica que, cuando se mejora la conectividad de los vecindarios, la criminalidad total de la ciudad se reduce, y el bienestar total se incrementa. |
| Keywords: | urban transit infrastructure, crime, Medellín, spatial equilibrium, Infraestructura de transporte urbano, crimen, equilibrio espacial |
| JEL: | F14 J24 J46 K42 O17 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1334 |
| By: | Sliacan, Jakub; Cibik, Matej |
| Abstract: | While motonormativity has been talked about in the transport circles for a long time, a detailed account that would make the concept suitable for deeper analysis was mostly lacking. To change that, Walker, Davis, Tapp (2023) define the concept as a "cultural inability to think objectively and dispassionately due to largely unconscious assumptions about how travel is", and then attempt to establish its presence experimentally. In this paper, we argue that while the concept of motonormativity is very important, Walker’s et al. and similar approaches to motonormativity contain serious problems that need to be rectified. The first part of the paper spells out in detail where gaps exist in the current understanding of motonormativity. First, the "bias" understanding of motonormativity assumes an implausible form of moral objectivism, stipulating an "unbiased" baseline of judgement as a vantage point. Second, the definitions put forward are distinctly individualistic (as opposed to systemic), missing the opportunity to address the aspects of motonormativity that are not reducible to individual beliefs. The second part of the paper then presents a more comprehensive take on motonormativity as a hierarchy entrenched in the transport system and positions it as a system-level phenomenon that can be understood outside of the constrains of individual beliefs and actions. |
| Date: | 2025–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pbgnx_v1 |