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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Xiyuan Ren; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | As cities grapple with traffic congestion and service inequities, mobility hubs offer a scalable solution to align increasing travel demand with sustainability goals. However, evaluating their impacts remains challenging due to the lack of behavioral models that integrate large-scale travel patterns with real-world hub usage. This study presents a novel data fusion approach that incorporates observed mobility hub usage into a mode choice model estimated with synthetic trip data. We identify trips potentially affected by mobility hubs and construct a multimodal sub-choice set, then calibrate hub-specific parameters using on-site survey data and ground truth trip counts. The enhanced model is used to evaluate mobility hub impacts on potential demand, mode shift, reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and increased consumer surplus (CS). We apply this method to a case study in the Capital District, NY, using data from a survey conducted by the Capital District Transportation Authority (CDTA) and a mode choice model estimated using Replica Inc. synthetic data. The two implemented hubs located near UAlbany Downtown Campus and in Downtown Cohoes are projected to generate 8.83 and 6.17 multimodal trips per day, reduce annual VMT by 20.37 and 13.16 thousand miles, and increase daily CS by $4, 000 and $1, 742, respectively. An evaluation of potential hub candidates in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area with the estimated models demonstrates that hubs located along intercity corridors and at urban peripheries, supporting park-and-ride P+R patterns, yield the most significant behavioral impacts. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08366 |
| By: | Abderrahman Ait-Ali; Anders Peterson |
| Abstract: | Accurate and timely travel information is an asset for enhancing passenger travel experience during normal traffic, and for mitigating the discomforts during disruptions. With longer and more frequent disruptions as well as increasing ridership, traffic delays can incur substantial costs for passengers and other transport stakeholders, e.g., operators and infrastructure managers. Such costs can, however, be reduced thanks to effective travel information strategies during traffic disruptions. In this paper, we introduce an evaluation model to assess the value of travel information under different scenarios. Focusing on real-time travel information to train passengers, accessibility benefits are quantified in monetary terms based on historical delay distributions, timing of travel information (pre/on-trip) and ridership. Using a case study from the Swedish railways, the model is showcased and applied to a commuter line in Stockholm. The experimental results indicate individual valuations that are higher than references and savings at the system level of at least 23% of the delay costs. Further testing of the model, e.g., on larger-scale scenarios, and including transfer trips, is a possible direction for future works. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08254 |
| By: | Harju, Jarkko; Kosonen, Tuomas; Laukkanen, Marita; Palanne, Kimmo; Suonto, Satu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the efects of a signifcant fuel tax increase on driving and therefore CO2 emissions. Fuel taxes are a major policy tool to reduce road transport emissions. Despite the prevalence of fuel taxes, credible causal evidence of the efect of fuel taxes on driving and emissions is limited, and the reasons why existing estimates vary remain unexplored. Our research directly addresses these gaps in the literature by exploiting exogenous variation provided by Finland’s 2012 energy tax reform. The reform increased the tax on diesel by almost 12 euro cents per litre, while the tax on gasoline was increased by less than 3 euro cents per litre. The reform allows us to utilize a quasi-experimental setting and compare the vehicle kilometers traveled by diesel-and gasoline-powered cars to identify the impacts of fuel taxes. We employ a large representative data set of about 0.7 million cars, which contains car odometer readings from mandatory car inspections starting from 2008. Our estimates indicate a clear reduction in vehicle kilometers traveled by diesel cars due to reform-induced increases in diesel prices. In our heterogeneity analysis we observe that a large part of the response originates from car owners that reside in urban rather than rural environments. |
| Keywords: | Fuel taxes, Fuel consumption, Fuel tax elasticity, Mileage, CO2 Emissions, Road transport emissions, J31, J38, D22, fi=Verotus|sv=Beskattning|en=Taxation|, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:177 |
| By: | André De palma (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Road congestion and deteriorating infrastructure impose substantial economic and social costs, with estimates reaching up to 1% of GDP in highly congested economies. At the same time, public finances are increasingly constrained, and reliance on the “user-pays” principle has grown, prompting greater use of tolling schemes and private participation in financing, operating, and maintaining road networks. This paper examines the interaction between road maintenance, capacity, and pricing decisions in contexts where different operators share responsibilities. We analyze whether private maintenance and tolling strategies converge toward socially optimal outcomes, and under what conditions misalignments occur. Policy implications for optimal pricing, investment incentives, and the design of capacity and maintenance are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Road maintenance, Road capacity, Traffic congestion, Tolls, Perfect Competition, Multi-level governance, Infrastructure finance |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 H54 Q54 L91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2025-14 |
| By: | Brecht Verbeken; Arne Vanhoyweghen; Vincent Ginis |
| Abstract: | Metro Line 3 in Brussels is one of Europe's most debated infrastructure projects, marked by escalating costs, delays, and uncertainty over completion. Yet no public accessibility appraisal exists to inform this policy debate. This paper provides a scenario-based assessment of the spatial and distributional accessibility impacts of Metro 3 using schedule-based public transport data. Official GTFS feeds from all regional operators were combined and adapted to represent three scenarios: (i) the current network, (ii) partial implementation of Metro 3 (conversion of the southern premetro section), and (iii) full implementation to Bordet. Accessibility was measured as public transport travel time between 647 evenly spaced 500 m points covering the Brussels-Capital Region. Simulations were conducted for morning, evening, and weekend midday periods, each with three departure times (t-10, t, t+10), capturing robustness to short-term timetable variation. Results show substantial but uneven accessibility gains, with the largest improvements occurring in neighborhoods with below-average incomes. Temporal robustness analysis highlights variability in accessibility outcomes, underscoring the need to account for uncertainty in departure timing. These findings suggest that Metro 3 has the potential to reduce socio-spatial inequalities in accessibility, providing transparent evidence for a project where public debate is dominated by cost concerns. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.22223 |
| By: | Xiyuan Ren; Zhenglei Ji; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | Early evaluations of NYC's congestion pricing program indicate overall improvements in vehicle speed and transit ridership. However, its distributional impacts remain understudied, as does the design of compensatory transit strategies to mitigate potential welfare losses. This study identifies population segments and regions most affected by congestion pricing, and evaluates how welfare losses can be compensated through transit improvements. We estimate joint mode and destination models using aggregated synthetic trips in New York and New Jersey and calibrate toll-related parameters with traffic counts reported by the MTA. The results show that the program leads to an accessibility-related welfare loss of approximately $240 million per year, which is considerably lower than the gains from toll revenues: the gross revenue estimated by our models ($1.077 billion per year) and the net revenue projected by the MTA ($450 million per year). However, these benefits gains conceal significant disparities. Welfare losses are concentrated in Upper Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Hudson County, NJ, particularly among travelers less able to shift to transit or alternative destinations. For NYC residents, compensating aggregate welfare loss requires a 0.48-minute reduction in transit wait time or a $135.59 million annual fare subsidy. Ensuring accessibility gains for all populations and counties (Pareto improving) requires a 1-2 minute reduction in wait time combined with an annual subsidy of about $100-300 million. For New Jersey residents, achieving aggregate welfare gains primarily through fare discounts (requiring $108.53 million per year) is more feasible and efficient; however, uniform discounts should be replaced by targeted mechanisms such as origin-based fare reductions or commuter pass bundles. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.06416 |
| By: | Pufan Qi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of electric vehicles on total annual electricity consumption across 58 counties in California from 2010 to 2021. Employing a log linear model to analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and EV ownership, alongside a linear log model with an instrumental variable approach, the study finds that annual per capita electricity consumption increased by 0.23% for each additional electric vehicle per 10, 000 residents over the 12 years period. The analysis identifies partisanship, measured as the annual percentage of voter registration for the Democratic Party by county, as a robust instrumental variable. Specifically, a 1% increase in Democratic voter registration corresponds to the adoption of approximately two additional EVs per 10, 000 residents. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02530 |
| By: | Björkegren, Daniel; Duhaut, Alice; Nagpal, Geetika; Tsivanidis, Nick |
| Abstract: | Private minibuses dominate transport in many developing country cities. They serve 62% of motorized trips in Lagos, the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses original panel data to measure how private minibuses respond to the rollout of a new public bus network. When the government enters a route, minibuses depart less frequently, drivers’ profits fall, and drivers switch to connected routes, reducing prices. A custom application was developed to estimate how commuters trade off prices and wait times using a RCT. The private response harms commuters on treated routes, who wait longer, but benefits those on connected routes, who face only lower prices. The disciplining effect of the new system on prices dominates on average, so that commuters overall benefit from the introduction of public transit, while minibus drivers lose revenue. Over one quarter of the commute welfare gains of building the public transit system arise from the response of private transit. Drivers lose welfare equal to 60% of the commuter gains. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11229 |
| By: | Shawn Berry |
| Abstract: | Traffic congestion represents a complex urban phenomenon that has been the subject of extensive research employing various modeling techniques grounded in the principles of physics and molecular theory. Although factors such as road design, accidents, weather conditions, and construction activities contribute to traffic congestion, driver behavior and decision-making are primary determinants of traffic flow efficiency. This study introduces a driver behavior archetype model that quantifies the relationship between individual driver behavior and system-level traffic outcomes through game-theoretic modeling and simulation (N = 500, 000) of a three-lane roadway. Mann-Whitney U tests revealed statistically significant differences across all utility measures (p 2.0). In homogeneous populations, responsible drivers achieved substantially higher expected utility (M = -0.090) than irresponsible drivers (M = -1.470). However, in mixed environments (50/50), irresponsible drivers paradoxically outperformed responsible drivers (M = 0.128 vs. M = -0.127), illustrating a social dilemma wherein defection exploits cooperation. Pairwise comparisons across the six driver archetypes indicated that all irresponsible types achieved equivalent utilities while consistently surpassing responsible drivers. Lane-specific analyses revealed differential capacity patterns, with lane 1 exhibiting a more pronounced cumulative utility decline. These findings offer a robust framework for traffic management interventions, congestion prediction, and policy design that aligns individual incentives with collective efficiency. Directions for future research were also proposed. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04740 |
| By: | Mengying Wu; Kristen McCormack; William A. Scott; Aaron Smith; Jingran Zhang; James H. Stock |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing aviation in the short term will likely entail replacing large quantities of petroleum jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), which are predominantly biofuels. In the United States, biofuels are currently used as substitutes for gasoline and diesel in road transportation and are supported by a complex set of federal and state policies including the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), state low carbon fuel standards, and state and federal tax credits. Policies promoting SAF therefore interact with surface transport biofuel policies. In this paper, we use a new detailed partial equilibrium model of road and air transportation fuel markets to compare various policy options designed to achieve a target of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030. Our results suggest that the target is attainable with current technology but not with current policy. Several potential federal policies, including modifications to the existing RFS, a federal SAF tax credit, or a clean aviation standard could meet the 3 billion gallon target with similar emissions reductions and costs but different incidence. The lowest cost policy we study entails replacing all current biofuels policies with a modest carbon tax on fossil transportation fuels paired with a SAF tax credit. |
| JEL: | Q16 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34326 |
| By: | Pierre Dumont (GeePs - Laboratoire Génie électrique et électronique de Paris - CentraleSupélec - SU - Sorbonne Université - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Stellantis (Centre technique de Carrières-sous-Poissy)); Lorenzo Nicoletti (Stellantis (Centre technique de Carrières-sous-Poissy)); Marc Petit (GeePs - Laboratoire Génie électrique et électronique de Paris - CentraleSupélec - SU - Sorbonne Université - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Damien-Pierre Sainflou (Stellantis (Centre technique de Carrières-sous-Poissy)) |
| Abstract: | Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology is gaining interest, particularly for electricity trading using electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This study focuses on the economic impact of V2Ginduced vehicle degradation. Unlike traditional approaches that estimate costs based on battery capacity loss, upcoming "virtual mileage" regulations aim to provide a more tangible metric. Virtual mileage, deduced from the energy reinjected onto the grid by the vehicle, is meant to represent a similar wear as real mileage. However, it should be noted that this metric is flawed as it tends to overestimate vehicle degradation since it tacitly includes wear on components that are not used during V2G (for instance: tires, brakes), and overlooks other factors like battery calendar ageing: for example, an EV with high virtual mileage could retain better battery health than one stored at full charge. Virtual mileage could hence significantly affect EV residual value, around ~1 c€ per virtual kilometre in order of magnitude, translating to ~0.05 € per discharged kWh. This depreciation would pose a substantial barrier to V2G profitability. Using simulations of EVs in the French day-ahead electricity market for 2019, the study finds that accounting for devaluation reduces average annual V2G benefits to just 6.96 €/EV, compared to 29.2 €/EV without it. The paper highlights the aforementioned limitations to virtual mileage and advocates alternative metrics such as the state-of-health to assess vehicle degradation, aiming to enhance the feasibility of V2G. |
| Keywords: | day-ahead market, energy arbitrage, residual value, virtual mileage, battery degradation, Vehicle-to-grid |
| Date: | 2025–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05294002 |
| By: | Monica Bonacina (University of Milan, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Bocconi University and University of Insubria); Romolo Consigna Tokong (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | The European Union’s decarbonisation strategy necessitates profound shifts across all sectors, with road transport presenting a particularly formidable challenge due to its sustained emissions growth since 1990. Given that Italy’s road transport sector is the third-largest consumer of fossil fuels in Europe, its role is pivotal in achieving these collective climate objectives. This study employs grey forecasting models to assess the projected contribution of alternative fuels – specifically biodiesel, bio-gasoline, biomethane, and electricity – to Italy’s 2030 decarbonisation pathway. The results suggest that consumption of these energy carriers will reach around 5 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent), representing a threefold increase compared to 2022 levels. While our analysis forecasts that biomethane, will entirely displace its fossil counterpart and that electricity consumption will expand considerably, the progress in the use of liquid biofuels could be lower than that reported in Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). According to grey models, in 2030, alternative fuels could meet one-sixth of the final energy demand for Italian road transport: a considerable improvement from current levels but less than the two-fifths share needed to align with the EU’s broader decarbonisation objectives. The findings suggest that the decarbonisation of road transport, largely attributed to the use of biofuels, is currently outpacing the progress achieved through the electrification of the vehicle fleet. This underscores the imperative of adopting a holistic strategy that leverages the full potential of all technologies. Such a unified design is essential to foster synergy and expedite the achievement of climate objectives in a manner that is both efficient and inclusive. |
| Keywords: | Road Transport, Final Energy Consumption, Alternative Fuels, Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan, Grey Forecasting Models |
| JEL: | Q2 Q4 C22 C45 C53 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.19 |
| By: | Anh Do; Sharat Ganapati; Woan Foong Wong; Oren Ziv |
| Abstract: | The majority of global trade moves by sea through hub-and-spoke shipping networks. We investigate the returns to being a hub country by analyzing how transshipment activity shapes trade and supply chains. We show that most US imports especially from smaller origin countries are transshipped via key hubs, and transshipment is positively correlated with the hubs product-level trade. Leveraging the indirect shipping network structure to construct an instrument, we find that transshipment increases hubs imports from origins for which they facilitate trade and exports of downstream goods, highlighting their central role in shaping modern global trade and supply chain dynamics. |
| Keywords: | trade costs, scale, hubs, transport costs, transportation networks, international trade, shipping |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12187 |
| By: | Francisco B. Galarza Arellano; Jonatan Amaya |
| Abstract: | We study how the interaction between the protective effect of local institutions and the amplifying effect of road infrastructure jointly shape deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon. Using data from 289 districts, we construct a local institutional index via principal components analysis and estimate a Spatial Durbin Model to capture both direct and indirect (spillover) effects on cumulative deforestation between 2001 and 2023. Our results show that stronger local institutions are associated with a 5.51 p.p. reduction in cumulative deforestation, 1 p.p. stemming from a district’s own institutions (direct effect) and 4.51 p.p. from those of neighboring districts (indirect effect). However, this protective role is entirely offset by proximity to paved roads, suggesting that road infrastructure significantly undermines institutional effectiveness. Our findings indicate that effective responses to deforestation cannot rely on isolated local actions. Because institutional spillovers extend across district borders, strengthening local governance requires coordination among municipalities. At the same time, road development—while important for connectivity and growth—can undermine institutional capacity to protect forests if not carefully managed. An integrated policy framework that combines institutional strengthening with strategic infrastructure planning is therefore essential to ensure that road investments reinforce, rather than weaken, collective efforts to curb forest loss. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Institutions, Roads, Amazon, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:211 |
| By: | Nicola Meccheri |
| Abstract: | In an international duopoly involving two countries (markets) and two ports, this paper examines how unilateral and passive port cross-ownership interacts with the degree of port privatization and the presence of tariff protection in shaping port performance and welfare outcomes. Port cross-ownership affects the usage fees set by ports in the two countries in different ways but consistently reduces their overall level. Under free trade, this fosters international trade and intensifies product market competition, thereby increasing consumer surplus while reducing firm profits. However, domestic welfare rises only in the country whose port holds a stake in the foreign port. Under tariff protection, by contrast, port cross-ownership induces countries to differentiate their tariff policies, with the country whose port holds a stake in the other setting a lower tariff. As a result, firm profits increase substantially in the other country, while consumers are not excessively disadvantaged. Depending on the degree of privatization, cross-ownership can enhance welfare in both countries, and, counterintuitively, tariff protection may improve welfare only for the country with a foreign port stake. |
| Keywords: | port cross-ownership, privatization, tariff protection, international duopoly |
| JEL: | F13 L13 L33 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2025/325 |