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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Niklas Rohde (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | Effects of climate emergency declarations (CEDs) have been reported in multiple cases; this is the first paper to test their potential economic impacts on the market share of electric vehicles (EVs). We use panel data on German CEDs at the district level from 2015 to 2023, employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, and find that compared with districts lacking CEDs, districts with CEDs do not demonstrate significant disparities in EV registrations. We do not find evidence that climate emergencies motivate more environmentally friendly consumption. |
| Keywords: | Climate Emergency, Electric Vehicles, Transport, Local Climate Plans |
| JEL: | Q58 R5 C33 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:082 |
| By: | Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future); Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Vehicle import tariffs can have measurable impacts on the market for vehicles. Depending on how they are structured, tariffs increase the cost of importing vehicles and vehicle parts, affecting how manufacturers price their vehicles across their entire fleet. Price changes affect consumer choices, but the extent depends on consumer price sensitivity and the substitutability of tariff-affected vehicles and other options. In 2025, the Trump administration levied 25 percent tariffs on vehicles and vehicle parts imported from outside North America. In this report, we leverage a structural econometric model of the vehicle market to quantify the impact of these tariffs on outcomes including vehicle prices, demand, domestic manufacturing, tariff revenues, manufacturer profits, and consumer well-being. These tariffs distort the market, increasing vehicle prices and reducing demand for new vehicles. Moreover, the tariffs would reduce manufacturer profits, though depending on the structure of the tariffs, US-based manufacturers may profit to some extent. However, the costs to consumers far exceed the benefits to domestic manufacturers and the revenues collected by the government. |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-25-10 |
| By: | Grzegorz Jamr\'oz; Rafa{\l} Kucharski |
| Abstract: | Detection of collectively routing fleets of vehicles in future urban systems may become important for the management of traffic, as such routing may destabilize urban networks leading to deterioration of driving conditions. Accordingly, in this paper we discuss the question whether it is possible to determine the flow of fleet vehicles on all routes given the fleet size and behaviour as well as the combined total flow of fleet and non-fleet vehicles on every route. We prove that the answer to this Inverse Fleet Assignment Problem is 'yes' for myopic fleet strategies which are more 'selfish' than 'altruistic', and 'no' otherwise, under mild assumptions on route/link performance functions. To reach these conclusions we introduce the forward fleet assignment operator and study its properties, proving that it is invertible for 'bad' objectives of fleet controllers. We also discuss the challenges of implementing myopic fleet routing in the real world and compare it to Stackelberg and Nash routing. Finally, we show that optimal Stackelberg fleet routing could involve highly variable mixed strategies in some scenarios, which would likely cause chaos in the traffic network. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.22966 |
| By: | Toshihiro Okubo (Keio University and PRI); Akira Sasahara (Keio University and PRI) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the closure of Japan's major international port on firm export behavior. In 2018, Typhoon Jebi directly struck Kansai International Airport (KIX), caused a two-week shutdown of the airport. Utilizing this event as a natural experiment, we examine the stability of logistic infrastructure achieved through the diversion of air exports to other airports, as well as the sectoral heterogeneity of this response. We find that the airport closure resulted in a diversion of exports to other airports, leading to a decline in total air exports only during the week of the typhoon's impact. While exports through non-KIX airports increased, these effects persisted for five to nine weeks. The extent of trade diversion was smaller in the machinery and transport equipment sectors. Our findings suggest that the disruption caused by a temporary airport closure can have substantial short-term impacts but does not result in permanent or long-lasting effects. |
| Keywords: | Natural disaster, exports, transportation, airport closure, Japan |
| JEL: | F14 R41 N75 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-014 |
| By: | Fujita, Takaaki |
| Abstract: | Graph theory has been widely applied across diverse scientific domains [1, 2]. Hypergraphs extend classical graphs by allowing hyperedges to connect arbitrary subsets of vertices, while superhypergraphs further enrich this structure through iterated powersets that capture hierarchical and self-referential relationships [3, 4]. An actor network links heterogeneous actants—humans, artifacts, texts, and rules—through directed associations, emphasizing relational materiality and performative agency [5, 6]. An urban road network is a directed, weighted graph of intersections and road segments, modeling connectivity, capacities, and travel dynamics. In this paper, we extend actor networks and urban road networks by employing HyperGraphs and SuperHyperGraphs. These extensions are expected to provide clearer and more expressive representations of hierarchical structures in real-world actor networks and urban road networks. |
| Date: | 2025–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:57mvr_v1 |
| By: | Manabu Nose (Keio University, Faculty of Economics); Yasuyuki Sawada (University of Tokyo, Faculty of Economics, Graduate School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nonlinear effects of a large-scale highway construction project in the Greater Mekong Subregion, which connects the historically conflict-affected borderlands of northern Vietnam to the country’s industrial core. Employing a market access framework with geo-coded highway network and firm-level panel data, we estimate the causal impact of improved interregional connectivity, while accounting for spillovers via production input-output linkages. To address endogeneity issues arising from non-random route placements, we construct least-cost path spanning tree networks. Our instrumental variable estimates reveal that enhanced market access spurred manufacturing firm agglomeration and employment growth, particularly in peripheral rural areas. We further explore the underlying sources of polycentric development patterns, finding pronounced effects in second-tier cities characterized by less intense competition and better access to national road networks. Our findings are robust to controls for industrial zones, underscoring the pivotal role of the upgraded highway connectivity in transforming previously marginalized regions and supporting economy-wide industrialization over the past decade. |
| Keywords: | spatial structural transformation, market access, treatment spillover, agglomeration, core-periphery |
| JEL: | O14 O18 O22 O25 R12 R32 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-010 |
| By: | Riukula, Krista (ETLA - The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy); Väänänen, Touko (Aalto University) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of transport-induced agglomeration on workers' earnings, as well as the productivity and costs of establishments, in the capital region of Finland using comprehensive individual- and establishment-level registry data. To our knowledge, we are the first to jointly examine firm- and worker-level effects of agglomeration. We find that improved workplace-to-workplace accessibility increases employees’ annual earnings, particularly among workers in smaller firms. However, we find no statistically significant effects on value added or labour costs per worker at the establishment level. We propose two potential explanations for this discrepancy: (1) differences in the composition of workers between the worker- and establishment-level analyses due to, for example, new hires, and (2) rising costs associated with increased agglomeration. Further analysis reveals that enhanced accessibility leads to higher establishment employment and increased operating expenses, such as rents. Taken together, these findings suggest that the benefits of agglomeration are primarily shared between workers and property owners. |
| Keywords: | transport project, productivity, agglomeration, accessibility |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18103 |
| By: | Pan-Yang Su; Yi Ju; Scott Moura; Shankar Sastry |
| Abstract: | We propose a general two-period model where electrical vehicles (EVs) can reserve charging sessions in the day-ahead market and swap them in the real-time market. Under the model, we explore several candidate mechanisms for running the two markets, compared using several normative properties such as incentive compatibility, efficiency, reservation awareness, and budget balance. Specifically, reservation awareness is the only property coupling the two markets and dictates that an EV will not get a lower utility by joining the real-time market. Focusing on the real-time market, we show that two variants of the classical Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism do not satisfy all the proposed properties; specifically, one is not reservation-aware, while the other is not budget-balanced. Moreover, we show that no mechanism satisfies some combinations of the properties. Then, we propose to use a posted-price mechanism to resolve the issue, which turns out to be the dynamic pricing mechanism adopted in many real-world systems. The proposed mechanism has no efficiency guarantee but satisfies all the other properties. To improve efficiency, we propose to use a VCG auction in the day-ahead market that guides the reserve prices in the real-time market. When EVs' valuations in the two markets are highly correlated, the proposed approach results in highly efficient outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.00270 |
| By: | Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future); Gayatri Kannan, Sangita |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the nature of quantity and price risks from the exercise of market power over critical minerals, with an emphasis on the minerals used for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The focus is especially on risks involving China since that country holds large shares in the processing and extraction of several battery minerals. Quantity risk is the threat of selective interruptions in the supply of critical minerals available to target countries. Price risk is the threat of higher prices by restricting supplies to the market as a whole, thereby extracting economic rents from buyers. Key findings include that (i) China is unlikely to be able to control market allocations of battery minerals to implement selective supply cuts, (ii) China tends to overbuild mineral processing capacity to safeguard domestic supply chains, and that (iii) China has engaged in export price discrimination for certain critical minerals, but care is needed in comparing this risk to the risk involved with massive investment in non-Chinese mineral processing capacity.JEL numbers: Q37, Q34, F52Key words: critical minerals. electric vehicle batteries. market power. industrial policy. |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-25-06 |
| By: | Thomas O. Hancock; Stephane Hess; Charisma F. Choudhury |
| Abstract: | Choice models for large-scale applications have historically relied on economic theories (e.g. utility maximisation) that establish relationships between the choices of individuals, their characteristics, and the attributes of the alternatives. In a parallel stream, choice models in cognitive psychology have focused on modelling the decision-making process, but typically in controlled scenarios. Recent research developments have attempted to bridge the modelling paradigms, with choice models that are based on psychological foundations, such as decision field theory (DFT), outperforming traditional econometric choice models for travel mode and route choice behaviour. The use of physiological data, which can provide indications about the choice-making process and mental states, opens up the opportunity to further advance the models. In particular, the use of such data to enrich 'process' parameters within a cognitive theory-driven choice model has not yet been explored. This research gap is addressed by incorporating physiological data into both econometric and DFT models for understanding decision-making in two different contexts: stated-preference responses (static) of accomodation choice and gap-acceptance decisions within a driving simulator experiment (dynamic). Results from models for the static scenarios demonstrate that both models can improve substantially through the incorporation of eye-tracking information. Results from models for the dynamic scenarios suggest that stress measurement and eye-tracking data can be linked with process parameters in DFT, resulting in larger improvements in comparison to simpler methods for incorporating this data in either DFT or econometric models. The findings provide insights into the value added by physiological data as well as the performance of different candidate modelling frameworks for integrating such data. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18068 |
| By: | Arega Getaneh Abate; Xiaobing Zhang; Xiufeng Liu; Dogan Keles |
| Abstract: | Integrating electric mobility (electric vehicles (EVs), electric trucks (ETs)) and renewable energy sources (RES) with the power grid is paramount for achieving decarbonization, efficiency, and stability. Given the rapid growth of decentralized technologies and their critical role in decarbonization, two critical challenges emerge: first, the development of a digital platform for operational coordination; and second, rigorous research into their cost-benefit profile. This paper addresses this by presenting a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of an AI-driven operational digital platform (ODP) designed for holistic, cross-sectoral optimization. The ODP aims to enhance energy efficiency, grid reliability, and environmental sustainability. A seven-step CBA framework, aligned with EU guidelines, quantifies economic, reliability, and environmental benefits against capital and operational expenditures, explicitly linking benefit magnitude to AI-driven ODP and optimization efficiencies, such as quantified improvements in market arbitrage from ODP, enabled forecasting, and enhanced operational efficiencies across various services. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.20631 |