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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Wang, Peggy |
| Abstract: | Automated vehicles (AVs) are one of the most significant technological advances in transportation. The benefits of AV technologies could be maximized by increasing vehicle occupancy through pooling and ridesharing, integrating AV use with high-capacity transit systems (e.g., using AVs to complement existing transit), and promoting multimodality (e.g., connecting travelers to public transit). Additionally, shared automated vehicles (SAVs), in which ridesharing companies (similar as today’s Uber or Lyft) offer driverless on-demand mobility services to customers, could enhance transportation access for visually impaired travelers who face unique challenges navigating current transportation systems including public transit and rideshare services. To this point, we interviewed 15 visually impaired individuals to understand their current transportation experience (e.g., what challenges they face and how they cope with these challenges); how SAVs might address their transportation needs and challenges; potential issues and solutions for using SAVs; how their travel behavior may change due to SAVs; and how much they would pay for SAV rides. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9h2233g0 |
| By: | Karsten Mau; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu; Yawen Zheng |
| Abstract: | We evaluate how access to international transport infrastructure promotes trade and economic development. Exploiting the gradual unfolding of transcontinental rail freight connections between China and Europe, our empirical findings indicate increasing exports from connected cities, with positive spillovers to neighboring cities and other indicators economic activity. Not all products and cities are equally responsive to new rail export opportunities. We set up a multi-sector heterogeneous firms model with a rich specification of trade costs, in which firms optimize trade costs by choosing alternative transportation modes and routes. Leveraging a unique data set on trade flows between Chinese cities, we calibrate our model to discuss local welfare effects, relying on sufficient statistics that quantify changes in city-level trade costs. We also highlight significant spatial distributional effects of trade infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure, trade, regional development, China |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12027 |
| By: | Lucas Woodley; Chung Yi See; Daniel Palmer; Ashley Nunes |
| Abstract: | Preowned vehicles are disproportionally purchased by low-income households, a group that has long been unable to purchase electric vehicles. Yet, low-income households would disproportionally benefit from EV adoption given the operating costs savings offered by electrification. To help realize this benefit, provisions of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act offer preowned EV purchasing incentives. How effective might these efforts be. Leveraging data from the United States Census Bureau, the National Household Travel Survey, and the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model, we address this question. Our findings are fourfold. First, we demonstrate that although low-income households are more likely to benefit from preowned EV purchasing incentives offered by IRA, up to 8.4 million low-income households may be ineligible owing to heterogeneity in vehicle procurement pathways. Second, we show that program ineligibility risks preventing up to 113.9 million tons in lifecycle emissions reduction benefits from being realized. Third, we find that procurement pathways depend on vehicle price. More expensive preowned vehicles are purchased directly from commercial dealers, while less expensive preowned vehicles are purchased from private sellers. These procurement pathways matter because qualification for IRA incentives necessitates purchasing solely from commercial dealers. Fourth, we demonstrate that while incentives motivating preowned vehicle purchases from commercial dealers may be effective if the vehicle is expensive, this effectiveness diminishes at higher price points. The implications of our findings on decarbonization efforts and energy policy are discussed. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.15054 |
| By: | Severin Diepolder; Andrea Araldo; Tarek Chouaki; Santa Maiti; Sebastian H\"orl; Constantinos Antoniou |
| Abstract: | Shared Mobility Services (SMS), e.g., demand-responsive transport or ride-sharing, can improve mobility in low-density areas, which are often poorly served by conventional Public Transport (PT). Such improvement is generally measured via basic performance indicators, such as waiting or travel time. However, such basic indicators do not account for the most important contribution that SMS can provide to territories, i.e., increasing the potential, for users, to reach surrounding opportunities, such as jobs, schools, businesses, etc. Such potential can be measured by isochrone-based accessibility indicators, which count the number of opportunities reachable in a limited time, and are thus easy for the public to understand. % The potential impact of SMS on accessibility has been qualitatively discussed and implications on equity have been empirically studied. However, to date, there are no quantitative methods to compute isochrone-based indicators of the accessibility achieved via SMS. This work fills this gap by proposing a first method to compute isochrone accessibility of PT systems composed of conventional PT and SMS, acting as a feeder for access and egress trips to/from PT hubs. This method is grounded on spatial-temporal statistical analysis, performed via Kriging. It takes as input observed trips of SMS and summarizes them in a graph. On such a graph, isochrone accessibility indicators are computed. We apply the proposed method to a MATSim simulation study concerning demand-responsive transport integrated into PT, in the suburban area of Paris-Saclay. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.13100 |
| By: | Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Wey, Christian |
| Abstract: | To support the green transition in the automotive sector, the EU has introduced CO2 emission performance standards, also known as the excess emissions premium (EEP) regulation, which will tighten until 2035. Manufacturers exceeding their average fleet emission targets must pay a penalty. The regulation also allows pooling of fleets, enabling manufacturers to combine fleets. We analyze how this affects market outcomes. The EEP creates a positive externality of electric on conventional cars. Pooling eases compliance but may weaken competition among existing market players, while simultaneously encouraging the entry of electric-only manufacturers into the EU. |
| Keywords: | Green regulation, automotive industry, excess emissions premium |
| JEL: | D04 L11 L50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:323231 |
| By: | Yingnan Yan; Tianming Liu; Yafeng Yin |
| Abstract: | As a key advancement in artificial intelligence, large language models (LLMs) are set to transform transportation systems. While LLMs offer the potential to simulate human travelers in future mixed-autonomy transportation systems, their behavioral fidelity in complex scenarios remains largely unconfirmed by existing research. This study addresses this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the value of travel time (VOT) of a popular LLM, GPT-4o. We employ a full factorial experimental design to systematically examine the LLM's sensitivity to various transportation contexts, including the choice setting, travel purpose, income, and socio-demographic factors. Our results reveal a high degree of behavioral similarity between the LLM and humans. The LLM exhibits an aggregate VOT similar to that of humans, and demonstrates human-like sensitivity to travel purpose, income, and the time-cost trade-off ratios of the alternatives. Furthermore, the behavioral patterns of LLM are remarkably consistent across varied contexts. However, we also find that the LLM's context sensitivity is less pronounced than that observed in humans. Overall, this study provides a foundational benchmark for the future development of LLMs as proxies for human travelers, demonstrating their value and robustness while highlighting that their blunted contextual sensitivity requires careful consideration. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.22244 |
| By: | Gupta, Mehul; Kannan, Smruthi Bala; Bhalla, Kavi; Goel, Rahul |
| Abstract: | What are the primary policy and economic barriers to e-bicycle adoption in Delhi, India? In cities in India, individual private mobility is dominated by motorized two-wheelers, with a policy push towards large shifts to electric mobility and, therefore, a sustainable shift in transportation. E-bicycles are at the margins of electric mobility policy and have an ambiguous presence in the policy documents. This paper explores the unique possibilities and challenges that e-bicycles pose in urban India through exploratory qualitative research interviews with current e-bicycle users and retailers in Delhi and other stakeholders such as manufacturers and a policy analyst in Delhi, India. We begin the paper by describing how e-bicycles are defined in the Indian scenario and their place within a spectrum of two-wheelers. Following a description of the research methodology, the paper explores the affordability of e-bicycles, how current taxation and subsidy regimes shape e-bicycle retail, the interviewee’s reflections regarding the safety concerns of using e-bicycles on the city’s roads, its physical health and accessibility benefits, and convenience of charging and repair. We conclude with a discussion on the need for a targeted policy to encourage the adoption of e-bicycles for gains toward reduction in speeds and emissions. |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rfeuv_v1 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | This project employs the outputs from MOVES-Matrix 4.0 to generate a data set that can be employed by users of the 2018 Fuel and Emissions Calculator (Version 3.0) to update energy use and emission rates to reflect the latest outputs from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA’s) MOVES 4.0 energy use and emission rate model for the Atlanta, Georgia summer scenario. The data employed in this project were generated as part of the National Center for Sustainable Transportation project entitled MOVES-Matrix 4.0 for High-Performance On-road Energy Use and Emission Rate Modeling Applications (Lu, et al., 2025). As described in this report, the team queried more than 90 billion cells within full MOVES-Matrix 4.0 data set to generate MOVES 4.0 data that can be substituted for the older MOVES 2014 data in Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC) Version 3.0 for Georgia. The query output data are contained in an Excel spreadsheet, allowing users to update their personal copies of the FEC. Should technology transfer funds become available in 2025 from another source, the research team will update and release the next full version of the FEC model, which will be accompanied by an updated user manual. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Fuel and Emissions Calculator, MOVES 4.0 Energy Use and Emission Rate Model, Energy Modeling, Environmental Assessment |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3671j460 |
| By: | Jamie Hansen-Lewis; Michelle M. Marcus |
| Abstract: | Targeting distributional impacts is gaining importance in the design of environmental policy. To achieve this, policy makers are adopting advances in air transport models to predict the benefits of air emissions regulation. These models offer policy makers accuracy in the spatial distribution of ambient air quality improvements for a given emissions reduction, but do not take into account behavioral responses to environmental policies. We consider how the failure to account for behavioral responses when making policy predictions may have important implications for the ultimate distributional impact of such policies. We compare the distributional impacts of maritime emission regulation predicted from the policy maker's air transport model to the realized distributional impacts. We then decompose the prediction error from two components: model error, whereby the predictions of air transport models fail to account for behavioral responses of polluting firms, and sorting error, whereby the targeted population migrates. |
| JEL: | Q5 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34055 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | Many developing cities are facing rapid population growth and extreme climate events. This paper examines the link between job accessibility and climate vulnerability, using data from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequently experiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysis finds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, who tend to walk to work or use public transport. Even after controlling for observables and the potential endogeneity bias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as people avoid commuting long to work due to anticipated potential climate risks. Building climate resilience into urban transport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, the evidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive, and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commuting yields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of private cars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11180 |
| By: | Kyoung You Kim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The second administration of US President Donald Trump is expected to impose a steep 25 percenttariff on imported automobiles and auto parts under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, in keeping with its protectionist approach.<p> - The high-tariff policy is aimed at encouraging more investment in US-based production and strengthening the competitiveness of the entire US automotive value chain.<p> Given the South Korean auto industry’s heavy reliance on the US market, such high tariffs are expected to have far-reaching effects, necessitating adjustments to export and production strategies targeting North America.<p> - Automakers are likely to increase local production in the US in order to offset the decline in exports, even as higher vehicle prices in the American market are expected to dampen demand, further reducing export volumes. - A large volume of vehicles destined for the US market are manufactured in the Korean city of Ulsan. USbound exports make up about 30 percent of all Ulsan-made auto exports, showing that the city’s automobile industry benefits from the US market but is not overwhelmingly reliant on it, making it somewhat shielded from the full impact of the tariffs. In contrast, the automotive industry in the Korean province of South Gyeongsang, which is more reliant on exports to the US, is likely to face greater disruption.<p> The auto parts industry faces both direct and indirect challenges, including: the immediate impact of higher tariffs, a drop in demand caused by reduced auto production in Korea, and growing pressure from automakers to lower parts prices as they try to pass on the tariff burden down the supply chain.<p> - US-based manufacturers do not yet source parts extensively from domestic parts suppliers. As a result, rising production costs are likely to erode profitability and lead to higher retail prices.<p> The US auto market is expected to undergo significant changes as demand declines due to higher vehicle prices. The marketis slowly exhibiting a growing preference for smaller vehicles, and demand for aftermarket parts is growing as used car sales rise amid longer vehicle lifespans.<p> - Growing demand for small cars could present an opportunity for Korean manufacturers, who have a competitive edge in this segment. However, Korean automakers produce few of their smaller medals in the US; this may restrict any potential gains to be had in this segment.<p> - An increase in demand for aftermarket parts may also create opportunities for Korean suppliers to replace Chinese parts in the aftermarket space. |
| Keywords: | US tariffs; Trump; Trump tariffs; US-Korea trade; automotive industry; auto industry; auto exports; |
| JEL: | L62 F23 F52 |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:021440 |
| By: | Abate, Megersa Abera; Barattieri, Alessandro; Brugnoli, Alberto; Porta, Flavio |
| Abstract: | The US-China direct flights in mid-2023 were only 7 percent of those available in mid-2019. This quasi-experiment informs the debate on air transport de-carbonization. An estimated structural model shows that re-establishing the pre-pandemic direct connectivity could increase passengers by 387 percent and reduce prices by 63 percent. Moreover, due to the suppression of flights, carbon dioxine emissions decreased by 80 percent. A counterfactual exercise shows that maintaining pre-COVID connectivity and achieving the same emissions reduction through a market mechanism (i.e. offsetting), would have resulted in more passengers (+365 percent), lower prices (-60 percent), and lower reduction in consumer surplus (-40 percent) than observed in the post COVID-19 equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11183 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | The paper reexamines how to measure job accessibility in environments with limited data availability and applies different methods to Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar. Job creation and accessibility are attracting renewed interest in developing countries, where unemployment rates remain persistently high. The paper finds two types of job accessibility measures that particularly impact employment: proximity to public transport and average travel time weighted by available job opportunities. For the latter, the paper also finds that new open-source data, such as the Open Buildings data set, are effective in identifying existing job opportunities. Using the measured results, the marginal impact of job accessibility on employment is estimated at about -0.05 to -0.06 after the potential endogeneity of accessibility measures is controlled. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11181 |
| By: | Karner, Alex; Rowangould, Dana; Barajas, Jesus |
| Abstract: | Science in the United States has become increasingly politicized, with a wave of recent federal grant terminations and censorship of equity and climate-related work. U.S. transportation research has not been immune. The Transportation Research Board (TRB), a stalwart of U.S. transportation research, has canceled research contracts, undertaken a dramatic internal restructuring, and appears poised to censor research presented at its marquee annual meeting. These shifts are significant in part because TRB espouses the values of scientific objectivity, independence, and integrity. Accordingly, TRB has historically funded work identified as needed by the broader research community and has been a home for the free and open exchange of ideas at its conferences, meetings, and events. We argue that TRB's recent actions suggest that it is no longer able to act with scientific integrity. In this commentary, we provide a brief history of TRB and its objectives, discuss its recent actions, and propose paths forward for researchers and practitioners interested in pursuing equity, justice, and climate change-oriented work. |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:53dsk_v1 |
| By: | Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit; Shankar, Binay |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a large-scale rural road construction program-the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)-on the performance of rural manufacturing firms in India. While these firms provide vital non-farm employment in rural areas, their growth is often thought to be constrained by inadequate infrastructure. Leveraging administrative data and the quasi-random rollout of the program, we estimate effects using a two-way fixed effects framework. We find no evidence that improved road connectivity affects turnover, profits, or employment for formal enterprises. In contrast, informal firms experience significant gains in turnover, expenditure, profits, employment, and wage bills. These effects appear to be driven by reductions in infrastructure-related constraints: treated firms report fewer operational problems and less competition from larger firms, particularly in marketing and distribution. Our findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of rural infrastructure expansion and the greater responsiveness of informal enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Firms, India, Infrastructure, Roads, Rural |
| JEL: | D22 O12 O18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1650 |
| By: | Eric Donald; Masao Fukui; Yuhei Miyauchi |
| Abstract: | How do regional productivity shocks or transportation infrastructure improvements affect aggregate welfare? In a general class of spatial equilibrium models, we provide a formula for aggregate welfare changes, decomposed into terms associated with (i) technology (Fogel 1964, Hulten 1978), (ii) spatial dispersion of marginal utility, (iii) fiscal externalities, (iv) technological externalities, and (v) redistribution. We further use this decomposition to derive a general formula for optimal spatial transfers and show that, whenever optimal transfers are in place, the technology term alone captures the aggregate welfare effects of technological shocks. We apply our framework to study welfare gains from improving the US highway network. We find that changes in the spatial dispersion of marginal utility are as important as technological externalities in accounting for the deviations from the Fogel-Hulten benchmark to assess welfare gains. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34075 |
| By: | Sapovadia, Vrajlal |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the application of core economic principles—market forces of supply and demand, elasticity, consumer demand theory, and production theory—in the maritime, shipping, and logistics industry. It emphasizes the critical role of rapid technological advancements in sustaining competitiveness within this sector. As technology becomes inseparable from operations, firms must adopt the latest innovations to optimize efficiency, reduce costs, and meet evolving consumer demands. The paper analyzes how these economic principles interact with technological integration, using examples from the maritime industry to illustrate their practical implications. The maritime industry, a cornerstone of global trade and connectivity, is undergoing a profound transformation driven by rapid technological advancements. This paper explores the fundamental principles of economics—market forces, elasticity, consumer demand, and production theory—within this evolving maritime landscape. It examines how digitalization, automation, artificial intelligence, and green technologies are reshaping supply and demand dynamics, influencing pricing strategies, altering consumer expectations in sectors like cruise tourism, and revolutionizing shipbuilding and operational efficiencies. Through theoretical analysis and illustrative case studies, this research highlights the intricate interplay between economic principles and technological innovation, identifies key research gaps, and provides insights into future research directions for a sustainable and efficient maritime future. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Maritime Economics, Market Forces, Elasticity, Consumer Demand, Production Theory, Technological Advancements, Digitalization, Automation, Green Shipping, Cruise Industry, Shipbuilding. |
| JEL: | A1 A2 A20 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125257 |