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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Imke Reimers; Benjamin Reed Shiller; Benjamin R. Shiller |
| Abstract: | We analyze how self-driving vehicles (SDVs) influence commuter behavior and returns to long-lived public transit investments. Using a commuting mode model estimated on detailed home and work location data from Greater Boston, we simulate the widespread entry of SDVs, which offer passive travel similar to transit but use existing road networks. We find that SDVs increase vehicle miles by 40% while decreasing public transit use by about 10%. Transit improvements continue to moderately boost revenues and lower miles driven, but their effects on mileage are small compared to SDVs. These findings highlight planning challenges posed by the emergence of SDVs. |
| Keywords: | self-driving vehicles, public transit investment, infrastructure planning, transportation economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11956 |
| By: | Ioannou, Petros; Liu, Xiaocheng; Waqas, Muhammad; Barth, Matthew; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Peng, Dongbo |
| Abstract: | The transition to zero-emission freight transportation is a critical component of California’s climate strategy, yet the adoption of battery electric trucks (BETs) in both long-haul and short-haul operations faces significant challenges. Limited charging infrastructure, long charging durations, grid reliability concerns, and regulatory constraints—such as Hours of Service (HOS) requirements—pose operational hurdles for fleet operators. This study develops a comprehensive optimization framework for electric truck fleet management, addressing the interplay between infrastructure limitations, operational uncertainties, and energy cost fluctuations. This research will also provide scalable insights for policymakers and industry leaders, supporting the broader transition to sustainable freight transportation. Investments in ultra-fast charging infrastructure, extended-range BETs, and microgrid-based energy management are key to accelerating the electrification of freight operations while ensuring cost efficiency and operational resilience. For long-haul electric trucking, this study leverages real-world data to optimize charging stops, minimize delays, and ensure regulatory compliance. Using a combination of mixed-integer programming and linearization techniques, the proposed model dynamically identifies cost-effective charging strategies, balancing factors such as driver wages, energy costs, and charging delays. For short-haul trucking, this study introduces a novel dispatching model—the electric vehicle routing problem with backhauls and time windows under uncertainty. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainable freight transportation, Electric Vehicle Routing Problem, Metaheuristics, Robust Optimization, Microgrid, Platooning |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1048s9wt |
| By: | David Bernal; Gustavo A. García; Jorge Pérez Pérez |
| Abstract: | We propose a methodology to calculate the mismatch between places of work and places of residence that incorporates monetary and opportunity transportation costs while correcting for possible overestimation of job accessibility. This methodology enables the analysis of spatiotemporal changes in spatial mismatch without discarding data from spatial units that change over time. We apply the methodology to measure spatial mismatch in Medellín, Colombia, for public and private transportation from 2012 to 2017. In line with previous work, our results indicate that including transportation and opportunity costs leads to a more realistic measure of job availability. Despite investments in public transportation and infrastructure, spatial mismatch in Medellín increased between 2012 and 2017. Our analysis shows that job accesibility through private transport decreased more than through public transport, and that the expansion of the latter in Medellín may have mitigated spatial mismatch. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Mismatch;Job Accessibility;Travel Times;Transport Costs;Public and Private Transport |
| JEL: | J61 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-09 |
| By: | Hoogland, Kelly PhD; Hardman, Scott PhD |
| Abstract: | Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are central to California’s strategy to reduce transportation-related emissions; however, low-income households face significant structural barriers to adoption. These barriers include the high upfront purchase costs of new BEVs, limited supply of used BEVs, limited access to home charging, and low awareness of BEVs. To better understand these obstacles and identify effective policy responses, our research team analyzed survey data collected from 2, 051 priority population households throughout California between December 2023 and June 2024. The survey asked households about their vehicle purchasing behavior, ownership costs, and socio-demographics. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5996v4gn |
| By: | Nikolaos Kalyviotis |
| Abstract: | Road infrastructure significantly impacts how people move and live and the emissions associated with travel behaviour. The design of roads is crucial in mitigating emissions. This paper reviews existing transport life cycle assessment tools that have been developed by various entities and can be used for roads. The review focuses on data sources used in the analysis, methods of estimating carbon dioxide emissions, the underlying software that is used to make the estimates, and any limitations of the tools. A critical issue identified in life cycle assessment analysis is the erroneous assumption that relationships within the assessed systems are linear. The current tools focusing on transport infrastructure assessment were developed based on the linear assumptions and limitations of the life cycle assessment analysis. A significant research gap identified is that existing life cycle assessment tools are not integrated with the design process. The analysis is an add-on process to design and the results of an assessment are not then used iteratively to enhance the design. A case study on aggregate road design found that road area significantly correlates with emissions, slope adjustments reduce emissions, and soil type impacts emissions, suggesting future research should explore non-linear relationships for sustainable road design. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13896 |
| By: | Theile, Philipp (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | With the growing adoption of electric vehicles, understanding user charging behavior is increasingly important for informing operational, investment, and policy decisions regarding their integration into the power system. While utility functions are commonly used to describe user preferences in charging behavior models, most existing studies rely on formulations with limited theoretical consistency and empirical validation, potentially leading to biased expectations. This paper empirically compares different utility function specifications and examines their implications for charging behavior modeling and charging station profitability. I introduce a novel discrete choice model framework to efficiently estimate utility function parameters from revealed preference data. Using a dataset of observed charging sessions at public charging stations in Germany, the model identifies accurate utility functions, uncovers charging preferences, and simulates station segment viability. The results suggest that charging utility is non-linear: marginal utility decreases with charged energy and marginal disutility increases with charging duration. An interaction between energy and duration leads to higher marginal valuation of energy for longer charging durations. Stations profit from inelastic demand driven by users who highly value energy content, are less price sensitive, and engage in high-value activities at the charging location, such as in urban areas or traffic hubs. |
| Keywords: | Electric Vehicles; charging behavior; utility function; discrete choice model; revealed preference data; charging station viability |
| JEL: | C25 C44 C53 Q40 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2025_007 |
| By: | Handy, Susan L.; Volker, Jamey M. B. |
| Abstract: | Guidelines for the California Environmental Quality Act require the mitigation of projected increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) stemming from highway expansion projects. Quantifying the likely effects of proposed mitigation measures enables an assessment of the degree to which the mitigation program offsets the estimated increase in VMT for a project. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of possible estimation methods for 45 mitigation strategies and recommendations on the most appropriate method for estimating the reduction in the number of miles of vehicle travel that could be expected to result from the implementation of a specific measure. The methods take into account the extent of the measure but may not account for the specific context. In general, two types of methods are available: travel demand forecasting models, and effect-size approaches. For several measures, this report concludes that the reduction in VMT cannot be estimated based on the available evidence. The Evidence Assessment Report provides as assessment of the strength of the evidence for each of the measures (Handy et al., 2024). |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle miles traveled, mitigation strategies, effect size, quantification |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt29r3h971 |
| By: | Kim, Keuntae; Volker, Jamey M.B.; McGinnis, Claire; Zepeda, Melissa; Barajas, Jesus M. |
| Abstract: | In 2018, pursuant to Senate Bill (SB) 743 (2013), the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the California Natural Resources Agency promulgated regulations and technical guidance that eliminated automobile level of service (LOS) as a transportation impact metric for land development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and replaced it with Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). The authors investigated the equity effects of VMT mitigation measures and developed a framework for evaluating those effects at the project level. The authors then applied the framework to two highway expansion case studies in California. They found that most VMT mitigation would be implemented at least partially within the project impact areas, as well as some disadvantaged communities, but would generally benefit communities outside of the project area, too. Most of the proposed mitigation measures would not displace existing residences or businesses or pose a significant risk of gentrification. Many of the measures showed substantial potential to improve accessibility to jobs, though less potential to improve accessibility to grocery stores. Community engagement and empowerment was harder to gauge. Overall, the five-part framework can provide a first-cut assessment of the equity effects of VMT mitigation measures during the environmental review phase of VMT-generating projects, like roadway expansions. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, VMT, mitigation, equity, environmental justice, induced travel, gentrification, displacement, accessibility |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3vq3k9h3 |
| By: | Augustus Smith |
| Abstract: | Many countries plan to ban the sale of new combustion engine vehicles. I examine the impact of introducing such a ban in Great Britain in 2023, estimating demand, and calculating the reduction in the carbon externality using data on vehicle emissions and individual mileages. This reveals issues with the ban’s design, mainly due to hybrids’ popularity: anticipation will not incentivise firms to develop electric vehicles, low-income households would be harmed most, and CO2 emissions would not be substantially reduced. Using a revenue-neutral combination of sales taxes and subsidies delivers 50% of the ban’s climate benefit at 15% of the cost. |
| Date: | 2025–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1083 |
| By: | Park, Byungyul (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Escalating tensions between the United States and China and the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe have pushed supply chain stability to the top of the agenda for South Korean automakers. In August 2022, during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, the US Congress passed two landmark pieces of legislation: the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These laws were designed to contain China’s expanding influence by reorganizing critical supply chains in semiconductors, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) around the US. The IRA offers consumers large federal tax credits on purchases of EVs, but only for vehicles assembled in North America. Moreover, it excludes batteries, parts, and materials produced in so-called “foreign entities of concern, ” principally China, from eligibility for subsidies. This has necessitated a significant realignment of the EV and auto parts supply chains. After the IRA became law, many cars made by automakers instantly became ineligible for subsidies, squeezing Korean EVs’ share of the American market. To mitigate this, Hyundai Motor expedited the construction of its EV plant in the US to ensure that its EVs would qualify for tax benefits. China responded to US sanctions with export controls on key materials critical in the automotive industry. In August 2023, it restricted the export of gallium and germanium, which are important materials used in the manufacture of semiconductors, and in October 2023, Beijing extended these restrictions to include graphite, a core component of lithium-ion batteries. These retaliatory measures have had both direct and indirect consequences on Korea’s automotive supply chains. As the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China heats up, the supply chains around these two superpowers are likely to ossify into two distinct blocs. This exposes Korean automakers to significant risk, given their dependence on China for auto parts and reliance on the US as a destination market for their exports. In this paper, we propose a diversification strategy for Korean automakers that leverages the country’s strong relationship with India in the automotive sector. We argue that such a strategy is required to safeguard the country’s automotive industry, a key strategic sector. |
| Keywords: | supply chains; batteries; electric vehicles; EVs; subsidies; battery industry; manufacturing; India; automotive; Hyundai; Kia; South Korea; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade; KIET |
| JEL: | F10 L62 L65 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2025_014 |
| By: | Shafiqullah Yousafzai; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of exports on subnational income and regional inequality between urban (trade hub) and rural (non–trade hub) areas, using nighttime luminosity as a proxy for economic activity. We construct a country-period panel dataset covering 104 countries, based on five-year average data from 1997 to 2020. Trade hub areas are defined as the union of areas within a 30 km or 50 km radius of each of the three largest ports and three international airports in a country, while all remaining areas are classified as non–trade hub areas. To address endogeneity, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach, using predicted trade as an instrumental variable. Predicted trade is derived from a dynamic gravity equation in which time dummies are interacted with sea and air transport distances. This instrument captures variation in transportation costs driven by technological advances that have shifted trade from sea to air, thereby influencing trade volumes. Our results show that a 1\% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity by 0.3% in trade hub areas and by 0.06\% in non–trade hub areas. Export growth also leads to population increases in trade hub areas, but not in non–trade hub areas. Furthermore, we find that a 1% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity per capita by 0.18% in trade hub areas and by 0.06% in non–trade hub areas. These findings suggest that while exports stimulate economic activity in trade hubs, population inflows partially offset per capita gains. Nonetheless, exports significantly exacerbate regional inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2025-001 |
| By: | Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a theoretical model based on the optimization behaviors of households and local governments for the hometown tax donation (Furusato Nozei) system in Japan, which has garnered attention as a new means of obtaining financial resources for local governments. Further, it conducts theoretical, numerical simulation, and empirical analyses. This study is the first to apply the Krugman model, which focuses on brand power and the transportation cost of reciprocal gifts and addresses differentiated goods and spatial trade. The empirical analysis targets municipalities in Hokkaido because of (1) the brand power of Hokkaido products and (2) the fact that transport to Honshu is almost exclusively limited to airports and ports; thus, transportation costs can be analyzed. This study is also the first to use the transportation distance of reciprocal gifts measured using a road network. Comparative statics analysis based on the theoretical model revealed the following trends: Higher reciprocal gift prices reduce reciprocal gift consumption but have an indeterminate impact on donation amounts; stronger brand power increases both donation amounts and reciprocal gift consumption; and higher transportation costs reduce reciprocal gift consumption. Reciprocal gift ratio, brand power, and transportation costs also affect the optimal reciprocal gift price. Finally, the empirical analysis based on municipal data for Hokkaido confirms that the price of reciprocal gifts does not significantly affect donation amounts and negatively affects reciprocal gift consumption, whereas the number of reciprocal gift types (a proxy variable for brand power) positively affect both donation amounts and reciprocal gift consumption. Transportation distance to airports and ports negatively affects both, which is consistent with the results of the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | Hometown tax donation system (Furusato Nozei), Brand power of reciprocal gifts, Transportation costs |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:294 |
| By: | Leonard Le Roux |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the emergence of violence in legal markets, with a particular focus on the informal public transport sector in South Africa, where minibus taxis are integral to urban mobility. Despite being a legal sector, the taxi industry is plagued by significant and persistent violence, imposing substantial social costs. Using novel administrative data from the government's operating licence system, route-level pricing information, and a unique dataset of taxi-related violence compiled from print and online media, I examine the interplay between competition, firm growth, and violence. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Transportation, Violence, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-45 |
| By: | Stefaniia Parubets; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of satellite-derived tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations as a proxy for economic activity in Japan. While nighttime light (NTL) data has been widely used to approximate economic output, recent research has highlighted its' key limitations. In particular, the relationship between NTL and economic outcomes weakens in sub-sample analyses with shorter time spans or restricted geographic coverage. NTL data also faces several key limitations: saturation in dense urban areas reduces measurement accuracy, capturing nighttime emissions fails to account for essential daytime economic activity, inconsistent sensors across different satellites introduce measurement variability, and the technology's sensitivity diminishes when differentiating economic development beyond certain brightness thresholds. Our results show that NO2's effectiveness as an economic proxy is highly dependent on spatial resolution. Using 0.25 degree esolution NO2 data, we find statistically significant relationships with prefecture-level GDP across multiple sectors. Mining shows the strongest elasticity (3.02%), followed by electricity, gas, and water (1.51%), and manufacturing (0.48%). Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries exhibit negative associations (-0.11%), consistent with vegetation serving as NO2 sinks. However, when using higher resolution 0.1 degree NO2 data, these relationships largely disappear, with most coefficients becoming statistically insignificant and sometimes counterintuitive. These findings highlight the importance of matching satellite data resolution to the geographic scale of economic analysis, with coarser resolution being optimal for prefecture-level analysis in Japanese context. This research demonstrates NO2's potential as a more reliable alternative to NTL for economic monitoring when appropriately calibrated. This study examines the effect of exports on subnational income and regional inequality between urban (trade hub) and rural (non–trade hub) areas, using nighttime luminosity as a proxy for economic activity. We construct a country-period panel dataset covering 104 countries, based on five-year average data from 1997 to 2020. Trade hub areas are defined as the union of areas within a 30 km or 50 km radius of each of the three largest ports and three international airports in a country, while all remaining areas are classified as non–trade hub areas. To address endogeneity, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach, using predicted trade as an instrumental variable. Predicted trade is derived from a dynamic gravity equation in which time dummies are interacted with sea and air transport distances. This instrument captures variation in transportation costs driven by technological advances that have shifted trade from sea to air, thereby influencing trade volumes. Our results show that a 1\% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity by 0.3% in trade hub areas and by 0.06\% in non–trade hub areas. Export growth also leads to population increases in trade hub areas, but not in non–trade hub areas. Furthermore, we find that a 1% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity per capita by 0.18% in trade hub areas and by 0.06% in non–trade hub areas. These findings suggest that while exports stimulate economic activity in trade hubs, population inflows partially offset per capita gains. Nonetheless, exports significantly exacerbate regional inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2025-002 |
| By: | Wenjing Zhang; Ling Sun; Phu Nguyen-Van |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamic interactions among global economic policy uncertainty, food prices, and maritime freight rates, focusing on changes in the global food landscape since China’s WTO official accession. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), it analyzes the impacts of economic policy changes, environmental policy, geopolitical risks, and global public health events on food and transportation markets. Additionally, it explores how fluctuations in maritime freight rates may affect food prices and, consequently, global economic development. Finally, the paper offers recommendations for food import and export countries to enhance food security and promote sustainable development in food transport firms. |
| Keywords: | global economic policy uncertainty; food market; food maritime transport; TVP-VAR-SV; food security |
| JEL: | O13 Q18 R41 L92 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-28 |
| By: | Durrmeyer, Isis; D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier; Fournel, Jean-François; Iaria, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We investigate the welfare consequences of introducing an online distribution channel in the French car industry, where most sales take place in person through car dealers relying on third-degree price discrimination. We estimate a structural model of demand with unobserved third-degree price discrimination and transportation costs related to visiting car dealers. In counterfactuals, we introduce an online distribution channel in which prices are uniform and consumers benefit from lower transportation costs. When both distribution channels are available, firms charge low online prices to attract internet-savvy consumers online, while continuing to price discriminate the less internet-savvy consumers in person. The online channel is profitable for firms, and the more it reduces transportation costs, the more profitable it is. However, the costs and benefits of the online channel are unevenly distributed among consumers, with older, wealthier, and internet-savvy consumers obtaining most of the benefits. |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130672 |
| By: | Piero Basaglia; Sophie M. Behr; Moritz A. Drupp |
| Abstract: | We investigate how fuel taxation reduces climate and pollution externalities by evaluating the world’s largest environmental tax reform. Using spatially detailed emissions data from more than 1, 000 European regions in a synthetic difference-in-differences framework, we evaluate the impact of Germany’s 1999 ecological tax reform on transport-related carbon and air pollutant emissions. We document sizable aggregate reductions for all emissions, exceeding 10 percent on average per year relative to synthetic baselines. Using official damage valuations, we estimate avoided external costs of more than €100 billion, two-thirds of which stem from health benefits due to reduced air pollution. Emission reductions and associated monetized benefits are larger in lower-income regions, contrasting with a slightly regressive distribution of fuel costs. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating air quality co-benefits when evaluating the efficiency and distributional effects of fuel and carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | environmental policy, externalities, fuel tax, carbon tax, synthetic difference-in-differences, tax elasticity, climate, pollution |
| JEL: | Q58 H23 I18 R48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11949 |
| By: | Wietschel, Martin; Thielmann, Axel; Gnann, Till; Hettesheimer, Tim; Langkau, Sabine; Neef, Christoph; Plötz, Patrick; Sievers, Luisa; Tercero Espinoza, Luis Alberto; Edler, Jakob; Krail, Michael; Doll, Claus; Link, Steffen; Stephan, Annegret; Scherrer, Aline; Klobasa, Marian; Speth, Daniel; Wicke, Tim; Schicho, Michaela; Kamamia, Ann Wahu; Loibl, Antonia |
| Abstract: | When looking at the key issues along the entire battery value chain, it becomes clear that there are no insurmountable obstacles to the continued widespread market diffusion of battery-electric cars. However, there are still several technical, economic, environmental, regulatory and social challenges to address in the coming years. These challenges can be overcome, provided there is the political will to do so. The most important findings are summarized below and discussed in greater detail in the sections on the individual questions. Note: This policy brief was published under the same title in 2020, but its content has been completely revised, and new aspects have been added. It reflects the state of research as of February 2025. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicle, battery, electromobility, sustainable mobility |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisipp:320419 |
| By: | Bontems, Philippe; Calmette, Marie-Françoise; Martimort, David |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the forthcoming terminations of most highways concessions in France, we propose a versatile model of dynamic regulation and contract renewals that describes a long-term relationship between the public authority and an incumbent operator with private information about its costs that may face potential entrants. We discuss various issues including the nature of discriminatory biases towards entrants, their consequences on investments, the public or private nature of the management of concessions, the role of the operator's financial constraints, the consequences of allotments. So doing, we isolate a few principles that should guide policy-makers when deciding upon concession renewals. |
| Keywords: | Procurement; concession contracts; contract renewal; highways; transportation;; auctions; asymmetric information |
| JEL: | D82 D86 L51 L91 L98 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130653 |
| By: | Miguel Martinez Rodriguez; Chi Kong Chyong; Timothy Fitzgerald; Miguel Vazquez Martínez |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen infrastructure, pipeline regulation, third-party access (TPA), unbundling, market design |
| JEL: | L95 L51 Q48 Q42 D47 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2514 |