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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Hannes Wallimann; Widar von Arx; Ann Hesse |
| Abstract: | The opening of the Gotthard Base Tunnel in 2017, the longest railway tunnel in the world, marked a milestone in Swiss transport policy. The tunnel, a part of the New Rail Link through the Alps, serves as a key instrument of the so-called "modal shift policy, " which aims to transfer transalpine freight traffic from road to rail. The reduction in travel time by train between northern and southern Switzerland raised expectations that a substantial share of tourist-oriented passenger traffic would also shift from car to rail. In this paper, we conduct a causal analysis of the impact of the Gotthard Base Tunnel's opening at the end of 2016 on the number of cars using the parallel Gotthard motorway section in the subsequent years. To this end, we apply the synthetic control and the synthetic difference-in-differences methods to construct a synthetic Gotthard motorway section based on a weighted combination of other alpine road crossings (a so-called donor pool) that did not experience the construction of a competing rail infrastructure. Our results reveal only a modest but statistically significant decline in the number of cars between the actual and the synthetic Gotthard motorway in the short run. Given the consistently strong and increasing demand for the new rail connection through the Gotthard Base Tunnel, we infer a substantial induced short-run demand effect resulting from the rail travel time savings. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.21129 |
| By: | Shota FUJISHIMA; Takara SAKAI; Yuki TAKAYAMA |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the structural parameters of a travel time function, which relates traffic volume to travel time, within the context of a traffic assignment model in which travelers strategically select routes to minimize their travel costs, influenced by congestion. The proposed model is formulated as a potential game, enabling the estimation of parameters using the maximum likelihood method based on a stochastic evolutionary process. The impact of congestion pricing on welfare is evaluated using the estimated parameters. Preliminary analysis using the Sioux Falls network shows that congestion pricing enhances overall welfare, even when accounting for estimation errors. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25055 |
| By: | Alexis Litvine (University of Cambridge); Thomas Thévenin (Université de Bourgogne); Arthur Starzec (University of Cambridge); Patrick Mille (Université de Bourgogne); Isabelle Séguy (INED); Guillaume Proffit (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | This article introduces a methodology for the creation of historical road transport networks, focussing on France and the UK between 1910 and 1930. We construct the first road networks for both countries in the early twentieth century, the key take-off period of motoring. We differentiate roads according to quality, width, and surfacing. We offer significant methodological innovation in the creation of historical speed models. To achieve an accurate calibration of car speeds, we extracted historical vehicle performance and developed a slope-dependent speed model. Our empirical validation process compares the predicted travel times with a new data set of historical observed travel times. The model demonstrates a high degree of accuracy, significantly enhancing the reliability of historical travel-time modelling. This framework not only provides a solid foundation for analysing historical accessibility and market potential, but also offers a replicable and adaptable approach applicable to other historical contexts and regions. |
| JEL: | L92 N74 |
| Date: | 2025–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmh:wpaper:44 |
| By: | Xie, Lin; Kliewer, Natalia |
| Abstract: | Der zunehmende Einsatz von Elektrobussen verändert die operative Planung von Fahrzeugen und Personal. Aufbauend auf bisherigen Forschungsergebnissen wurde ein Framework zur Modellierung von Umlauf-, Dienst- und Dienstreihenfolgeplanung entwickelt. Es integriert den nichtlinearen Nachladeprozess in die Umlaufplanung (Time-Space-Netzwerk) sowie die Ladeinfrastruktur in die Fahrzeugeinsatzplanung. Zur Bewältigung hoher Rechenzeiten wurden Column-Generation- und heuristische Verfahren ergänzt. Zur Erhöhung der Robustheit wurden Verspätungsmodelle, prädiktive Fahrzeitschätzungen und variable Flottengrößen untersucht. Ein wesentliches Ergebnis: Die Integration von Verspätungen erhöht nicht die Modellkomplexität. Prädiktive Fahrzeiten verbessern die Umlaufstabilität deutlich. Die variable Fahrzeuganzahl im Modell unterstützt die zentrale Frage: Wie viele E-Busse werden zur Bedarfsdeckung benötigt? |
| Abstract: | The growing use of electric buses is changing the operational planning of vehicles and personnel. Based on previous research, a framework was developed to model vehicle assignment, rostering, and duty scheduling. It integrates the nonlinear battery recharging process into vehicle assignment using a time-space network and incorporates charging infrastructure planning. To handle increased computational effort, column generation and heuristic methods were implemented. For robustness, delay propagation, predictive travel time estimation, and variable fleet sizing were analyzed. A key finding: incorporating propagated delays does not increase model complexity. Using predicted rather than scheduled travel times improves the robustness of assignments. Modeling the number of vehicles as a variable supports a central question: How many electric buses are needed to meet service demand? |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:319684 |
| By: | Dennis Gaus; Heike Link |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a systematic analysis of peoples’ decision to purchase the Deutschlandticket, identifying primary customer groups and the role of public transport irregularities such as delays and cancellations. It builds on a panel dataset covering survey answers from almost 3000 participants between March and December 2023 and applies a series of binary logit models. The results confirm that the main customer group of the Deutschlandticket consists of younger people and (fulltime) workers. The ticket does not significantly contribute to a modal shift towards public transport, as it is primarily purchased by people who were frequent public transport users or even owners of a season ticket already in the past, whereas car owners refrain from purchasing the ticket. It cannot be confirmed that an increase in public transport reliability could boost ownership of the Deutschlandticket, as the impact of irregularities on the purchase decision is small and limited to specific subgroups. |
| Keywords: | Public transport fares, ticket purchase decision, travel surveys, public transport reliability |
| JEL: | D12 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2124 |
| By: | Jun Cui |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how team collaboration stability influences the success of mega construction projects in electric vehicle manufacturing enterprises, with human-AI integration as a moderating variable. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) with data from 187 project teams across China's electric vehicle sector, results indicate that team collaboration stability significantly enhances project success. The moderating effect of human-AI integration strengthens this relationship, suggesting that enterprises implementing advanced human-AI collaborative systems achieve superior project outcomes when team stability is maintained. These findings contribute to both team collaboration theory and provide practical implications for mega project management in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle industry. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.06375 |
| By: | Ewald, Katrin; Wasserman, Lisa |
| Abstract: | The 2025 Traffic Safety Public Opinion Study was conducted for the California Office of Traffic Safety (OTS) and the Safe Transportation Research and Education Center of UC Berkeley (SafeTREC). The findings of the 2025 Study are based on a sample size and eligibility criteria similar to previous years of data collection. A total of 2, 319 responses were collected in April and May 2025 using an online selfadministered survey. Similar to previous years of the study, the survey panelists were provided through Marketing Services Group, a commercial sample and panel vendor. The survey findings of the 2025 Traffic Safety Public Opinion Study are outlined in this report together with a comparison to previous years of data collection. Every effort was made to ensure the data representativeness and accuracy of the findings. To ensure a sample composition comparable to previous years, six quota groups were set for age and gender groups based on the California census, as well as based on the age groupings of previous waves of the Traffic Safety Study. To be eligible to participate in the study participants were required to have a valid California driver’s license, live in California, and be 18 years or older. Screened and eligible respondents were forwarded to a brief 10- minute self-administered online survey programmed and managed by Ewald and Wasserman Research (E&W). |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, traffic safety, distracted driving, driving under the influence, pedestrian safety, bicyclist safety, driverless vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5b9024k9 |
| By: | McGinnis, Claire; Barajas, Jesus M. PhD |
| Abstract: | The historical impacts of transportation planning and investment have adversely impacted communities of color and low-income communities. In response, state departments of transportation, metropolitan planning organizations, and local and county governments have begun to address these injustices through plans, policies, and deeper engagement with communities, though work in this area is still nascent. There are a variety of data, tools, and metrics from research and practice that measure the distributional equity of transportation planning and projects to inform equitable solutions. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt80g2m3s6 |
| By: | Alban de Gmeline (University of Cambridge); Alexis Litvine (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the closures of railway lines in France between 1910 and 1938 when France experienced rapid network shrinkage. Multiple hypotheses have been put forward, ranging from the financial troubles of railway companies, the competition of automobiles and interurban coach services, and the rationalisation of the network leading to its nationalisation and the creation of the SNCF in 1938. We provide a quantitative assessment of these factors using newly assembled data on road and rail networks and the first historical metric for passenger traffic at the station level. Finally, we analyse the impact in terms of spatial inequality. |
| JEL: | L92 N74 |
| Date: | 2025–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmh:wpaper:43 |
| By: | Md Mahadi Hasan |
| Abstract: | I develop a continuous-time model in which an incumbent batch-service provider faces stochastic passenger arrivals and must decide when to dispatch under the threat of customer defection to a faster entrant. The incumbent's problem is formalized as a trade-off between departure frequency and load maximization, with the option to accept mid-route pickups. I characterize the equilibrium dispatch strategy and show that increased competitive pressure strictly reduces the feasible departure threshold, leading to more frequent departures with smaller passenger loads. Longer travel times tend to raise the unconstrained optimal threshold, but realized dispatch behavior also depends on passenger tolerance for delay. Endogenizing demand by letting the arrival rate fall with expected waiting time yields an interior optimum, rationalizing why incumbents now (i) depart partially full and (ii) accept mid-route riders. Comparative statics show that the optimal threshold tends to increase with travel time under a mild regularity condition and decreases with competitive intensity. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.20554 |
| By: | Kejriwal, Mayank |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the potential health impacts of implementing a hypothetical Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS) in Los Angeles (LA), a city facing significant traffic-related air pollution. Traffic emissions are a major source of pollutants like particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which have been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Utilizing intervention-based epidemiological study designs, the research estimates the effects of a proposed 25% traffic reduction in downtown LA. Simulated results indicate a substantial decrease in NO2 and PM10 levels, with predicted increases of 1, 263.58 years of life gained (YLG) in the greater LA area over a decade. The discussion highlights the potential of CCS to not only reduce pollution but also address socio-economic disparities in health outcomes. This model could serve as a blueprint for other urban areas considering similar policy interventions. |
| Date: | 2025–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fk9wm_v2 |
| By: | Amal, Nair; Sabyasachi, Tripathi |
| Abstract: | Rapid urbanization has catalyzed economic growth, especially for developing nations, and their urban populations have seen a dramatic rise, hence requiring an understanding of and policymaking on socioeconomic issues. The paper presents important factors that determine the population growth in major urban agglomerations around the world with over 5 million inhabitants. The determinants of urban population size in 2020 and population growth rates from 2010-2020 were analyzed using OLS and quantile regression models based on data with geographical, environmental, demographic, political, and infrastructural variables. The main results show that proximity to transportation infrastructure, annual temperature, initial population size, population density, and the number of educational institutions are essential facilitating factors for urban populations. In contrast, port city status, annual precipitation, and CO2 emissions show negative impacts. Many of these same factors are also significant in population growth rates, though state capital status and congestion in traffic flow negatively relate to growth. The results indicate a complex variety of factors that shape global urban growth and imply some policy directions for sustainable urban development investments in education, environmental protection, and transport infrastructure. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics of global urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Urban population growth, Demographic factors, Environmental variables, Infrastructure, Sustainable urban development. |
| JEL: | O18 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124672 |
| By: | Alban de Gmeline (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | What was the impact of rail development on electoral behaviour in France? This paper quantifies the impact of the opening of stations on voting in the 1902 election. It distinguishes the specific effect linked to the opening of a news agent in stations. The analysis is based on a new dataset from the archives of Hachette who had a monopoly on these news agents in French railway stations. These selling points account for 2.64% of the 42.46% of votes obtained by the left-wing alliance in 1902. A political bias of Hachette may partly explain this effect. These results underscore the importance of transport infrastructure and information access in shaping political behaviors. |
| JEL: | N73 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmh:wpaper:41 |
| By: | Lev Ricanati |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare impact of discrete improvements to global public goods in the context of the Global Positioning System (GPS). Specifically, I find that by disabling Selective Availability in May, 2000, and thus significantly increasing the accuracy of GPS, the United States generated at least \$268 million (2000 dollars) of additional welfare gains. To quantify this welfare impact, I apply a difference-in-differences model to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics's Airline On-Time Performance Data in the years 1999 and 2000. I use this model to estimate the time saved per flight attributable to the improved GPS and multiply these time savings by the number of passengers in the ensuing year and their values of time. I conclude by estimating the economic loss from current threats to the provision of satellite-based global public goods. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.08209 |
| By: | Heng Chen; Hongyu Xiao |
| Abstract: | Household mobility data can improve our measurement of access to cash. The existing literature typically assumes that households visit their nearest ABMs or financial institution branches from their homes, without combining cash withdrawals with other activities (i.e., on their way to shopping). However, the typical approach neglects two realistic features: The first is that, due to spatial agglomeration, cash access points could be co-located with popular points of interest, such as retail service centers; and, second, households could combine multiple trips, via trip-chaining, to reduce travel costs. Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15% to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents. |
| Keywords: | Bank notes; Financial services; Regional economic development |
| JEL: | D12 O18 R22 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-16 |
| By: | Lydia Papadaki; George Halkos; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | Limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 deg C-ideally 1.5 deg C-is central to the Paris Agreement; however, recent projections by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggest that current trajectories place the world on course for over 3 deg C of warming by the end of the century. Ports play a critical dual role in this climate crisis. On one hand, they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions through port operations, waste management, and worker mobility. On the other, they are highly vulnerable to climate impacts such as sea level rise and changing wave dynamics, which threaten the integrity of infrastructure and disrupt the global flow of goods-80-90% of which pass through ports. This study investigates the effectiveness of a targeted seminar series implemented in 2023 to enhance the understanding of sustainable development principles among Greek port stakeholders, including port authorities, municipal port funds, and marina operators. The seminars aimed to build capacity in areas such as blue growth, green energy, circular economy, and digital transitions. In addition, this research captures stakeholder preferences for climate mitigation and adaptation technological solutions through a DCE. Solutions presented were drawn from the MENA Maritime Accelerator and grouped into five key action areas: circular economy, clean energy production and storage, water quality, and air quality. The findings contribute to assessing both the awareness-raising potential of such training interventions and the prioritisation of climate-resilient innovations in the port sector. |
| Keywords: | ports infrastructure, pairwise comparison, innovations, decision-making, climate change |
| Date: | 2025–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2543 |
| By: | Bahram Adrangi; Arjun Chatrath; Madhuparna Kolay; Kambiz Raffiee |
| Abstract: | The enterprise value (EV) is a crucial metric in company valuation as it encompasses not only equity but also assets and liabilities, offering a comprehensive measure of total value, especially for companies with diverse capital structures. The relationship between economic uncertainty and firm value is rooted in economic theory, with early studies dating back to Sandmo's work in 1971 and further elaborated upon by John Kenneth Galbraith in 1977. Subsequent significant events have underscored the pivotal role of uncertainty in the financial and economic realm. Using a VAR-MIDAS methodology, analysis of accumulated impulse responses reveals that the EV of air carrier firms responds heterogeneously to financial and economic uncertainties, suggesting unique coping strategies. Most firms exhibit negative reactions to recessionary risks and economic policy uncertainties. Financial shocks also elicit varied responses, with positive impacts observed on EV in response to increases in the current ratio and operating income after depreciation. However, high debt levels are unfavorably received by the market, leading to negative EV responses to debt-to-asset ratio shocks. Other financial shocks show mixed or indeterminate impacts on EV. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.07766 |