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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Lucas W. Davis; Jing Li; Katalin Springel |
| Abstract: | The prospect for electric vehicles (EVs) as a climate change solution hinges on their widespread adoption across political lines. This paper uses county-level data to show that from 2012-2023, about half of all new EV registrations in the U.S. went to the 10% most Democratic counties. This correlation remains largely stable over time, though EV trucks show a lower correlation than other EV types. We also conducted a survey, finding no difference in the ability of Democrats and Republicans to identify EVs. Overall, our results suggest that barriers to widespread U.S. EV adoption may be greater than anticipated. |
| JEL: | D12 H23 Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33591 |
| By: | Xu, Lei |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies in the smart transportation infrastructure of Shenzhen between 2024 and 2025. It analyzes Shenzhen's electrification of public transport, integration of AI for traffic signal optimization, and deployment of AI-enhanced passenger safety systems. The paper also examines the role of blockchain in ensuring secure, decentralized data exchange, and energy trading protocols for electric vehicles. Additionally, challenges such as data interoperability, security, and ethical governance are discussed. The findings provide insights into how emerging technologies can transform urban mobility and establish a replicable model for global smart city development. |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:yn67b_v1 |
| By: | Ding, Kaijing; Hansen, Mark PhD |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of high-speed rail on accessibility to employment and educational opportunities for the census tracts in the California Central Valley. The accessibility is assessed for driving only mode and transit only mode for the baseline scenario and driving plus HSR mode and transit plus HSR mode for the scenario after HSR start operation. We plot the accessibility distribution for census tracts and calculate the spatial equality index of accessibility distribution to compare the accessibility before and after HSR starts operation, as well as the accessibility for communities of concern (CoCs). Our findings include multiple aspects. Most importantly, we find that HSR yields the greatest accessibility gains to the most vulnerable communities, which we term CoC Level 2 and Level 3 communities. This improvement is attained for both employment and education accessibility, and whether HSR access/egress is by driving or transit. Second, it is also the case that vulnerable communities have higher baseline accessibilities as a result of being located in urban areas. Third, HSR accessibility gains are restricted to higher travel time thresholds, generally 60 min or greater. Fourth, driving mode has consistently higher accessibility as well as accessibility improvement due to HSR than transit mode. Fifth, while the accessibility improvement brought by HSR is highly spatially uneven, HSR slightly equalizes the distribution of accessibility across census tracts under the driving + HSR scenario. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Accessibility, Transportation equity, High speed rail, Underserved communities, Mode choice, Rural areas |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9r24358s |
| By: | Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Elliott, Robert J.R.; Strobl, Eric; Zhang, Chengyu |
| Abstract: | Knowing how long the average vehicle remains roadworthy before being scrapped is a crucial input into life cycle assessment (LCA) and total cost of ownership (TCO) studies of different vehicle powertrains. This study leverages a dataset of over 300 million MOT records from 2005 to 2022 for over 30 million vehicles registered in Great Britain and uses parametric survival analysis with interval-censored data to examine the longevity of various powertrains under real usage conditions. Our findings reveal that (plugin) hybrid electric vehicles have the longest expected longevity in terms of years and mileage, both of which are about 50% higher than those of an average fleet vehicle. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while initially showing lower reliability, have benefited from rapid technological improvements such that the latest BEVs in our sample match the lifespan of petrol vehicles despite being used more intensively. Longevity is also impacted by engine size, location, and make of vehicle. The results provide parameter estimates that can be used to update TCO and LCA models and also shed light on EV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies, and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around EV battery recycling and second-life options. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles; survival analysis; total cost of ownership; life cycle assessment |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126759 |
| By: | Nafisa Lohawala; Mohammad Arshad Rahman |
| Abstract: | The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is considered critical to achieving climate goals, yet it hinges on consumer interest. This study explores how public intent to purchase EVs relates to four unexamined factors: exposure to EV information, perceptions of EVs' environmental benefits, views on government climate policy, and confidence in future EV infrastructure; while controlling for prior EV ownership, political affiliation, and demographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, education, and geographic location). We utilize data from three nationally representative opinion polls conducted by the Pew Research Center between 2021 and 2023, and employ Bayesian techniques to estimate the ordinal probit and ordinal quantile models. Results from ordinal probit show that respondents who are well-informed about EVs, perceive them as environmentally beneficial, or are confident in development of charging stations are more likely to express strong interest in buying an EV, with covariate effects--a metric rarely reported in EV research--of 10.2, 15.5, and 19.1 percentage points, respectively. In contrast, those skeptical of government climate initiatives are more likely to express no interest, by more than 10 percentage points. Prior EV ownership exhibits the highest covariate effect (ranging from 19.0 to 23.1 percentage points), and the impact of most demographic variables is consistent with existing studies. The ordinal quantile models demonstrate significant variation in covariate effects across the distribution of EV purchase intent, offering insights beyond the ordinal probit model. This article is the first to use quantile modeling to reveal how covariate effects differ significantly throughout the spectrum of EV purchase intent. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.09854 |
| By: | Hannes Wallimann; Noah Balthasar |
| Abstract: | Children's travel behavior plays a critical role in shaping long-term mobility habits and public health outcomes. Despite growing global interest, little is known about the factors influencing travel mode choice of children for school journeys in Switzerland. This study addresses this gap by applying a random forest classifier - a machine learning algorithm - to data from the Swiss Mobility and Transport Microcensus, in order to identify key predictors of children's travel mode choice for school journeys. Distance consistently emerges as the most important predictor across all models, for instance when distinguishing between active vs. non-active travel or car vs. non-car usage. The models show relatively high performance, with overall classification accuracy of 87.27% (active vs. non-active) and 78.97% (car vs. non-car), respectively. The study offers empirically grounded insights that can support school mobility policies and demonstrates the potential of machine learning in uncovering behavioral patterns in complex transport datasets. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.09947 |
| By: | Redding, Stephen J. |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models. These models are sufficiently rich to capture observed features of the data, such as many asymmetric locations and a rich geography of the transport network. Yet these models remain sufficiently tractable as to permit an analytical characterization of their theoretical properties. With only a small number of structural parameters (elasticities) to be estimated, they lend themselves to transparent identification. As they rationalize the observed spatial distribution of economic activity within cities, they can be used to undertake counterfactuals for the impact of empirically-realistic public-policy interventions on this observed distribution. Empirical applications include estimating the strength of agglomeration economies and evaluating the impact of transport infrastructure improvements (e.g., railroads, roads, Rapid Bus Transit Systems), zoning and land use regulations, place-based policies, and new technologies such as remote working. |
| Keywords: | cities; commuting; transportation; urban economics |
| JEL: | N0 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126838 |
| By: | Steven J. Davis; Meijun Qian; Wen Zeng |
| Abstract: | We build a granular GIS database that covers China’s national highways, modern motorways, traditional railways, high-speed railways, and waterways at an annual frequency from 1993 to 2020. Overall network length more than tripled after 1993, with half the increase accounted for by modern motorways and high-speed railways. Mean distance from zip-code centroids in China to nearest motorway access point fell from 302 km in 1993 to 15 km in 2020. Average within-county connectivity to the transport network rose sharply. We also show that discrepancies between distance to nearest motorway access point and straight-line distance to motorway routes are often large, and they correlate with calendar time, terrain features, and economic development. This finding raises concerns about the use of straight-line distance when estimating the causal effects of transport improvements. Our GIS database is freely available on an open-access basis, creating an empirical laboratory for new research in multiple directions. |
| JEL: | L92 N75 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33515 |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | The recent development of quantitative urban models provides a new set of tools for evaluating transport improvements. Conventional cost-benefit analyses are typically undertaken in partial equilibrium. In contrast, quantitative urban models characterize the spatial distribution of economic activity within cities in general equilibrium. We compare evaluations of a transport improvement using conventional cost-benefit analysis, sufficient statistics approaches based on changes in market access, and model-based counterfactuals. We show that quantitative urban models predict a reorganization of economic activity within cities in response to a transport improvement, which can lead to substantial differences between the predictions of these three approaches for large changes in transport costs. |
| JEL: | R30 R40 R52 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33532 |
| By: | Reid B. Taylor; Erich Muehlegger |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of competition on incumbent firm pricing by using high frequency price data and the precise geographic location for all gas stations in California. Using an event study design, we find that the entry of a new station is associated with a 2.5 cent decrease in prices at incumbent stores, which equates to a 7% reduction in estimated retail markups. The effects are immediate, persistent, and show no sign of deterrence or limit pricing behavior. In contrast, nearby exit results in precisely estimated null effects on prices with no evidence of predatory pricing in the lead up to the station departure. The results are consistent across all fuel blends and dissipate with station distance. Finally, we explore the asymmetric effects, showing that the difference cannot be attributed to difference in branding, proximity to highway, or data quality idiosyncrasies, although we find suggestive evidence that exit tends to happen in more competitive markets and amongst less heavily trafficked stations. |
| JEL: | L1 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33569 |
| By: | Benjamin Feigenberg; Conrad Miller |
| Abstract: | We examine class disparities and discrimination in police searches and stops using data on traffic stops conducted by Texas Highway Patrol. Low-income motorists are more likely to be searched for contraband, less likely to be found with contraband when searched, and more likely to be stopped for infractions associated with pretext stops. We measure class-based discrimination in searches per potential stop, accounting for both the search and stop margins. Our research design leverages motorists stopped in multiple vehicles conveying different class signals. Motorists are more likely to be searched when stopped in a low-status vehicle, and evidence suggests that they are also more likely to be stopped when driving one. Marginal searches triggered by vehicle status are also less likely to yield contraband when the motorist is low-income. We argue that lower hassle costs associated with arrests of low-income motorists help explain trooper behavior. |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33629 |
| By: | Mohamed Ibrahim Ballo (UNZ - Université Norbert ZONGO); Houd Kanazoé (UV-BF - Université virtuelle du Burkina Faso); Pawendkisgou Isidore Yanogo (UNZ - Université Norbert ZONGO) |
| Abstract: | On-demand taxis are made up of chauffeur-driven transport vehicles (VTCs) and hourly taxis. They are one form of urban taxi transport. Unlike shared taxis, which generally provide a conventional, basic type of service, on-demand taxis offer a more professional service. The aim of this study is therefore to analyze the contribution of on-demand taxis to improving urban transport provision in Ouagadougou. To this end, in addition to documentary research and direct observation, data was collected using qualitative and quantitative techniques. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with urban taxi users and operators. The results of the study show that Ouagadougou saw its first hourly taxis in 1990 and its first VTCs only in 2022. In addition, 23% of the users surveyed in Ouagadougou chose to travel with VTCs and hourly taxis because of the professional services offered by these modes of urban transport. In addition, 100% of the taxis used for transport on demand in Ouagadougou have a fleet of vehicles in good condition. However, the study reveals that, to date, there are no urban transport regulations governing the activities of VTCs and hourly taxis. On the one hand, this vacuum presents governance issues for the sub-sector, with the potential for conflicts of interest between players, and on the other, economic issues with the loss of tax revenue. |
| Abstract: | Les taxis à la demande se composent des véhicules de transport avec chauffeur (VTC) et des taxis horokilométriques. Ils constituent l'une des formes d'offre de transport urbain par taxis. A la différence des taxis collectifs qui fournissent un service le plus souvent classique, de type basique, les taxis à la demande présentent une offre plus professionnelle. Cette étude vise donc à analyser la contribution du taxi à la demande dans l'amélioration de l'offre du transport urbain à Ouagadougou. A cet effet, en plus de la recherche documentaire et de l'observation directe, des données ont été collectées, à travers les techniques de l'approche qualitative et quantitative. Des entretiens semi-structurés ont été réalisés avec divers acteurs du transport urbain. Les résultats de l'étude montrent que Ouagadougou a connu ses premiers taxis horokilométriques en 1990 et ses premiers VTC seulement en 2022. Par ailleurs, 23 % des usagers enquêtés à Ouagadougou font le choix de se déplacer avec les VTC et les taxis horokilométriques au regard de l'offre professionnelle que présentent ces modes de déplacements urbains. En sus, 100% des taxis utilisés pour le transport à la demande à Ouagadougou se caractérise par un parc de véhicules en bon état. Cependant, l'étude révèle qu'à ce jour, aucun texte du transport urbain n'encadre les activités des VTC et celles des taxis horokilométriques. Ce vide présente, d'une part, des enjeux de gouvernance du sous-secteur avec ses velléités de conflits d'intérêts entre acteurs, et d'autre part, des enjeux économiques avec la perte fiscale occasionnée. |
| Keywords: | VTC, hourly taxi, urban transport, urban mobility, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, taxi horokilométrique, transport urbain, mobilité urbaine, VTC hourly taxi urban transport Ouagadougou Burkina Faso |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05022497 |
| By: | Mingliang Li; Yanrong Li; Lai Wei; Wei Jiang; Zuo-Jun Max Shen |
| Abstract: | Recently, autonomous driving system (ADS) has been widely adopted due to its potential to enhance travel convenience and alleviate traffic congestion, thereby improving the driving experience for consumers and creating lucrative opportunities for manufacturers. With the advancement of data sensing and control technologies, the reliability of ADS and the purchase intentions of consumers are continually evolving, presenting challenges for manufacturers in promotion and pricing decisions. To address this issue, we develop a two-stage game-theoretical model to characterize the decision-making processes of manufacturers and consumers before and after a technology upgrade. Considering the unique structural characteristics of ADS, which consists of driving software and its supporting hardware (SSH), we propose different business strategies for SSH (bundle or unbundle with the vehicle) and driving software (perpetual licensing or subscription) from the manufacturer's perspective. We find that, first, SSH strategies influence the optimal software strategies by changing the consumers' entry barriers to the ADS market. Specifically, for manufacturers with mature ADS technology, the bundle strategy provides consumers with a lower entry barrier by integrating SSH, making the flexible subscription model a dominant strategy; while perpetual licensing outperforms under the unbundle strategy. Second, the software strategies influence the optimal SSH strategy by altering consumers' exit barriers. Perpetual licensing imposes higher exit barriers; when combined with a bundle strategy that lowers entry barriers, it becomes a more advantageous choice for manufacturers with mature ADS technology. In contrast, the subscription strategy allows consumers to easily exit the market, making the bundle strategy advantageous only when a substantial proportion of consumers are compatible with ADS. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.17174 |
| By: | Marzouk, Osama A. |
| Abstract: | An environment with reduced pollution from road vehicles and decarbonized transportation is one of the dimensions of smart cities. In this regard, new sales of vehicles intended for urban use should be oriented toward cleaner (greener) vehicles with less harmful environmental impacts. In the current study, two environmental rating variables provided by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) for model year 2023 vehicles (U.S. market) in 6 broad classes are employed to identify the best 10 models in each class. These classes are: two seaters (sports cars), cars, SUVs (sport utility vehicles), vans, station wagons (estate cars), and pickups (pickup trucks). The method used in these ratings is based on a combination of emissions life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental economics. The first ACEEE rating variable is the environmental damage index (EDX), representing an estimated environmental damage cost (in U.S. cents per driving mile). The second ACEEE rating variable is the Green Score, which is a non-dimensional number (0–100 scale) derived from EDX. According to version 4 of the green building certification program LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) of the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), green vehicles are defined as those having a Green Score of 45 or higher. In the current study, 85 selected top models were found to have a Green Score range from 41 to 67. Only 55 models of them (64.7% portion) are LEED compliant (classified as green vehicles), and thus are more recommended for use within smart cities than other models. |
| Date: | 2024–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bjx3q_v1 |
| By: | Morando, Alberto |
| Abstract: | As new automated features enter the automotive market, we need methods to assess their safety in a rapid, proactive, and iterative way. The traditional way of relying on crash statistics does not meet these needs. An alternative is to use extrapolation techniques designed to deal with rare events, such as extreme value theory (EVT). In this paper, we applied EVT to estimate the risk of collision with and without adaptive cruise control (ACC) during steady-state car following. We defined a Bayesian regression model to estimate the parameters of the Weibull distribution for block maxima (BM) of the brake threat number (BTN). We used a small, open-access dataset collected during a platooning experiment on a test track, with and without ACC. We found that ACC has extremely low probability to end up in a rear-end crash under normal car following circumstances. Although there is a expectation that ACC is generally safer than manual driving, we found that the relative risk of ACC was higher than the human control baseline in the dataset. The reason is that the manual control baseline represented a cautious driving style, which may not be typical in real traffic. Nonetheless, EVT can be used to measure the expected safety benefit of a vehicle system without requiring a large dataset. BTN was the appropriate safety metric to compare automated and manual driving mode as it accounts for specific brake behavior and performance. |
| Date: | 2025–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hnzpw_v1 |
| By: | Jimenez Lopez, Grace Annette |
| Abstract: | This paper delves into the strategic cooperation between Peru and China in the maritime trade sector by using the case study of the Chancay Mega port, infrastructure project preinaugurated in 2024 and expected to begin operating in 2025. As one of the first nodes in China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America’s west coast, the port exemplifies the increasing bilateral trade and foreign investment. The research aims to address benefits and potential threats, including economic interdependence, regional cooperation, social disruption, and geopolitical tensions. Through the analysis of policy documents, official statements and government reports, future limitations and opportunities are underscored for the economic strategy in Peru and the Latin American region. |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:43ncp_v1 |