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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Philipp Ludwig |
| Abstract: | The international shipping sector is a vital part of the global trading system but also a large emitter of carbon dioxide emissions. In the absence of a multilateral carbon policy for the shipping sector, different countries are starting to impose unilateral measures to decarbonize maritime trade. This paper investigates the impact of unilateral policy on global carbon emissions and welfare by introducing heterogeneous transport technology to a quantitative model of trade. The framework emphasizes the role of transport providers which allocate clean and dirty vessels to shipping routes and thereby determine trade flows, transport costs and emissions in the entire network. Unilateral policy interferes with the allocation process by altering the cost of transport or restricting port access to specific vessel types. Using unique data on ship-level fuel consumption and network traffic, I study the impact of upcoming unilateral policy in the EU. I find that carbon taxes can achieve sizeable emission savings as long as the supply of transport services is sufficiently elastic. Emission savings, however, are not large enough to compensate for lower levels of trade, resulting in an aggregate loss of welfare. |
| Keywords: | carbon emissions, container shipping, transport network, unilateral policy |
| JEL: | F18 R12 R13 R41 H23 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11712 |
| By: | Hyland, Michael F. PhD; Pike, Susan PhD; Hu, Siwei; Berkel, Jacob Julius; Xing, Yan PhD; Saha, Ritun; Vander Veen, Geoffrey Hans; Yang, Dingtong PhD |
| Abstract: | Public transit ridership has declined in major US cities over the past decade. Integrating traditional fixed-route transit with flexible microtransit has been proposed to enhance ridership, mobility, accessibility, and sustainability. This project surveyed California transit agencies on their microtransit services to identify challenges to integrating them with fixed-route services. An agent-based model combining the two modes of transit was developed to evaluate different operational designs. FleetPy, an open-source simulation tool, modeled microtransit dynamics. The study examined design impacts, such as fixed route headways and microtransit fleet size, in downtown San Diego and Lemon Grove, California. Results showed that while microtransit reduces fixed-route ridership and requires higher subsidies, it significantly boosts job accessibility. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Public transit, Microtransit, Demand responsive transportation, Transit operating agencies, Travel demand, Ridership, Operating subsidies, Accessibility |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt32v3x9mw |
| By: | Fajgelbaum, Pablo PhD; Gaubert, Cecile PhD; Gorton, Nicole; Morales, Eduardo; Schaal, Edouard |
| Abstract: | We study how political preferences shaped California’s High-Speed Rail (CHSR), a largetransportation project approved by referendum in 2008. Voters’ support responded significantly to the projected economic gains in their tract of residence, as measured by a quantitative model of high-speed rail matched to CHSR plans. Given this response, a revealed-preference approach comparing the proposed network with alternative designs identifies strong planner’s preferences for political support. The optimal politically-blind design would have placed the stations nearer to California’s dense metro areas, where it was harder to sway votes, thus increasing the projected economic gains. |
| Keywords: | Business |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5zh3s8nv |
| By: | Louison Duboz; Ioan Cristinel Raileanu; Jette Krause; Ana Norman-L\'opez; Matthias Weitzel; Biagio Ciuffo |
| Abstract: | The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) is expected to address road transport externalities (e.g., safety, traffic, environmental impact, etc.). For this reason, a legal framework for their large-scale market introduction and deployment is currently being developed in the European Union. Despite the first steps towards road transport automation, the timeline for full automation and its potential economic benefits remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it presents a methodological framework to determine deployment pathways of the five different levels of automation in EU27+UK to 2050 under three scenarios (i.e., slow, medium baseline and fast) focusing on passenger vehicles. Second, it proposes an assessment of the economic impact of AVs through the calculation of the value-added. The method to define assumptions and uptake trajectories involves a comprehensive literature review, expert interviews, and a model to forecast the new registrations of different levels of automation. In this way, the interviews provided insights that complemented the literature and informed the design of assumptions and deployment trajectories. The added-value assessment shows additional economic activity due to the introduction of automated technologies in all uptake scenarios. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.23914 |
| By: | Volker, Jamey |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2444c0bw |
| By: | Ding, Kaijing; Hansen, Mark |
| Abstract: | A major criticism of California’s high-speed rail project is that it will mainly serve urban elites and that low-income people and people of color likely won’t be able to afford the fares.2 Also, the project may benefit the middle-income group the least since the proposed station locations, usually in or near city centers, will probably serve high- and low-income populations better than middle-income families.2 Besides these arguments, however, there are very few studies that have analyzed the equity impacts of California’s high-speed rail project. Current studies have either focused on benefits to California residents as a whole with little consideration to the specific opportunities for how high- speed rail will improve the lives of marginalized groups; or only studied the disproportionate adverse impacts received by marginalized groups. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5m44m6zm |
| By: | Nelson, Trisalyn PhD; Cohen, Achituv PhD; Schattle, Lizzy; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Zanotto, Moreno; Winters, Meghan PhD; Herr, Seth |
| Abstract: | As cities invest in bicycle lanes to encourage active transportation, it may also be important to ensure safe bicycle parking and other measures of theft prevention. The magnitude of the problem is largely unknown, but it may be substantial given the ease of breaking bike locks, the potential for resale, and the challenges for law enforcement. Also, studies have shown that bike theft can deter a person from bicycling more in the future due to the difficulty replacing the bike or because they are concerned about another theft. To better understand the impact of theft on cycling behavior and assist cities to determine where and how to invest in bike infrastructure and other strategies to ensure that all Californians have access to bicycling, we conducted a survey of bicycle thefts and recoveries. The study producedsuggestions for the State’s Active Transportation Program, and other funding programs for bicycling. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3zz821vq |
| By: | Gilberto Miller Devós Ganga (UFSCar - Federal University of São Carlos); Roberta Dell Avanzi (UFSCar - Federal University of São Carlos); Guilherme Ramos (UFSCar - Federal University of São Carlos); Mario Henrique Callefi (Chemnitz University of Technology / Technische Universität Chemnitz); Moacir Godinho Filho (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Fabiane Letícia Lizarelli (UFSCar - Federal University of São Carlos); Glauco Henrique de Souza Mendes (UFSCar - Federal University of São Carlos) |
| Abstract: | Electric autonomous vehicles, including Autonomous Electric Buses (AEBs), offer significant societal benefits such as fewer accidents, reduced pollution, and enhanced driving efficiency, presenting a promising alternative to public transportation. While research on this subject exists in developed countries like Europe, China, and Germany, there remains a significant gap in our understanding of the acceptance of AEBs in emerging economies. Our study investigated the adoption factors of AEBs in a medium-sized Brazilian city by surveying 554 respondents. In our structural model, we adopted a hybrid approach that integrates elements from the modified Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), and Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). The study's findings indicate that a positive attitude, perceived usefulness, initial trust, and subjective norm significantly influence Brazilian consumers' intention to use AEBs. The theoretical implications of this study involve the creation of a model that intricately merges elements from multiple existing frameworks (TAM, TPB, and UTAUT). This proposed model synthesizes key factors influencing the acceptance of AEBs in emerging economies, providing a foundation for developing effective public policies for urban logistics automation. |
| Keywords: | Autonomous electric buses, Technology acceptance, Autonomous public transport, Emerging economy |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04992013 |
| By: | Mallett, Richard |
| Abstract: | Motorcycle-taxis are one of the fastest ways to get around Kampala, Uganda, but they are also the most dangerous. Over the past decade, digital ride-hailing platforms have emerged on the city’s streets as a self-styled solution to dangerous working conditions and low earnings in the sector, promising a dual transformation of both livelihoods and safety standards. In this article, I draw on an analysis of speed and the forces that shape it to critically explore the ways in which concerted safety initiatives combine with the precarious logics of the platform economy to produce what I term a “speed trap” – a frenetic, incoherent set of circumstances that push and pull informal transport workers in different directions by compelling slowness and recklessness at the same time. As a result, ride-hailing emerges as a risky vehicle for road safety reform and an ambiguous addition to (already) high-risk urban infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | motorcycle taxis; platforms; ride-hailing; speed; Kampala |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127625 |
| By: | Amir Mirzadeh Phirouzabadi |
| Abstract: | This research unravels the stationary or transitionary dilemma of hybrid technologies in transitions processes. A system dynamics technology interaction framework is built and simulated based on Technological Innovation System and Lotka-Volterra to investigate the inter-technology relationship impacts and modes that hybrid technologies establish with incumbent and emerging technologies. This is conducted for the case of conventional, hybrid and battery electric vehicles under various scenarios . Results reveal that, by acting as an exploration-hybrid solution, hybrid technologies maintain a transitionary role by supporting mainly the technological development side of emerging technology. On the contrary, by acting as an exploitation-hybrid solution, they hardly (or never) sustain an inhibitive role against both the technological and market development sides of incumbent technology. While hybrid technologies may play a stationary role on the market development side in transitions processes, simulation results show that maintaining all inter-technology relationship modes as business-as-usual (i.e., baseline scenario) but instead simultaneously strengthening the various socio-technical dimensions of emerging technology and destabilising the various socio-technical dimensions of incumbent technology (i.e., sociotechnical scenario) is a more promising pathway in both short term (e.g., an accelerated uptake of emerging technology and decline of incumbent technology) and long term (e.g., highest emission reduction). Findings, additionally, reinforce the existence of both spillover and try-harder versions of 'sailing-ship effect', which are either seriously doubted in the literature or partially validated using raw bibliometric and patents data. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.06018 |
| By: | Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt; Christian Wey |
| Abstract: | To support the green transition in the automotive sector, the EU has introduced CO2 emission performance standards, also known as the excess emissions premium (EEP) regulation, which will tighten until 2035. Manufacturers exceeding their average fleet emission targets must pay a penalty. The regulation also allows pooling of fleets, enabling manufacturers to combine fleets. We analyze how this affects market outcomes. The EEP creates a positive externality of electric on conventional cars. Pooling eases compliance but may weaken competition among existing market players, while simultaneously encouraging the entry of electric-only manufacturers into the EU. |
| Keywords: | green regulation, automotive industry, excess emissions premium |
| JEL: | D04 L11 L50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11762 |
| By: | Björn Bos; Moritz A. Drupp; Lutz Sager |
| Abstract: | Low emission zones (LEZ) represent a key environmental policy instrument to address air pollution in cities. LEZs have reduced air pollution and associated health damages in regulated areas, but it remains unclear who has benefited from cleaner air. To examine the distributional effects of LEZs, we combine gridded data on resident characteristics, including income and a proxy for ethnicity, with high-resolution estimates of fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations in Germany, the country with the highest number of LEZs. We estimate heterogeneous treatment effects with a difference-in-differences approach and show that PM2.5 pollution reductions are distributed unequally across society. While residents with German name origins experience larger improvements within LEZs, residents with foreign names disproportionately live in LEZs and thus benefit more when assessed at a nationwide scale. Monetizing air quality benefits following governmental guidance, we find that they are distributed pro-poor within LEZs, disproportionately benefiting lower-income residents. From a nationwide perspective, benefits are distributed almost proportionally although the sign is sensitive to how benefits from cleaner air scale with income. Overall, our results suggest that LEZs have nuanced distributional implications that differ sharply between a national perspective and local assessments that focus on effects within LEZs. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, distributional effects, low emission zones, traffic regulation |
| JEL: | J15 Q52 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11739 |
| By: | Maria Vagliasindi; Nisan Gorgulu |
| Abstract: | This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed. |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11096 |