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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Ming Li; Long Wang; Zoe Yang |
| Abstract: | Using China's expansion of the high-speed rail system (HSR) as a quasi-natural experiment, we analyze the comprehensive vehicle registration data from 2010 to 2023 to estimate the causal impact of HSR connectivity on the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Implementing several identification strategies, including staggered difference-in-differences (DID), Callaway and Sant'Anna (CS) DID, and two instrumental-variable approaches, we consistently find that, by alleviating range anxiety, the expansion of HSR can account for up to one third of the increase in EV market share and EV sales in China during our sample period, with effects particularly pronounced in cities served by faster HSR lines. The results remain robust when controlling for local industrial policies, charging infrastructure growth, supply-side factors, and economic development. We also find that HSR connectivity amplifies the effectiveness of charging infrastructure and consumer purchase subsidies in promoting EV adoption. |
| JEL: | L52 L53 O18 Q55 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33489 |
| By: | Vieira, Renato. S.; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Emanuel, Lucas; Alves, Pedro Jorge |
| Abstract: | Many cities worldwide provide fare subsidies to encourage transit ridership and mitigate the negative externalities associated with car use. Yet, there is limited evidence on the extent to which these policies promote shifts in transportation mode from automobiles to public transit, especially in cities from low-income countries. Here, we leverage a large-scale quasi-natural experiment to examine the causal impact of a fare-free transit policy on the travel behavior of older adults in a developing country with substantial public transit use. To identify the causal impact of free transit on travel behavior, we employ a regression discontinuity design that takes advantage of the Brazilian eligibility rule for free transit which is based on an age threshold that varies by sex and city. Drawing on data from 11 household travel surveys in seven metropolitan areas representing 25% of the Brazilian population, we compare the number of trips and travel times by transport mode, as well as vehicle ownership by individuals who are just above and just below the age thresholds for transit fare exemption. Our results show that fare-free transit increases transit ridership among older adults by approximately 9.4% (se = 4.0 p.p.) while making these trips shorter by 8.2%. However, this increase in transit usage results mainly from the substitution of walking trips, which decrease by 9.3% (se = 3.4 pp). We found no significant impact on car usage or vehicle ownership. These findings suggest that fare-free transit is not an effective policy to reduce private car use and its associated externalities, even in low-income contexts with high public transit usage. |
| Date: | 2025–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pywm7_v1 |
| By: | Sophia Shen; Xinyi Wang; Nicholas Caros; Jinhua Zhao |
| Abstract: | The overall impact of working from home (WFH) on transportation emissions remains a complex issue, with significant implications for policymaking. This study matches socioeconomic information from American Community Survey (ACS) to the global carbon emissions dataset for selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the US. We analyze the impact of WFH on transportation emissions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Employing cross-sectional multiple regression models and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, we examine how WFH, commuting mode, and car ownership influence transportation emissions across 141 MSAs in the United States. We find that the prevalence of WFH in 2021 is associated with lower transportation emissions, whereas WFH in 2019 did not significantly impact transportation emissions. After controlling for public transportation usage and car ownership, we find that a 1% increase in WFH corresponds to a 0.17 kilogram or 1.8% reduction of daily average transportation emissions per capita. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition shows that WFH is the main driver in reducing transportation emissions per capita during the pandemic. Our results show that the reductive influence of public transportation on transportation emissions has declined, while the impact of car ownership on increasing transportation emissions has risen. Collectively, these results indicate a multifaceted impact of WFH on transportation emissions. This study underscores the need for a nuanced, data-driven approach in crafting WFH policies to mitigate transportation emissions effectively. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.00422 |
| By: | Daniel de Wolf (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille, ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale); Christophe Magidson (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Jules Sigot (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This work aims to study the technical and economical feasibility of a new hydrogen transport network by 2035 in France. The goal is to furnish charging stations for fuel cell electrical vehicles with hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using low-carbon energy. Contrary to previous research works on hydrogen transport for road transport, we assume a more realistic assumption of the demand side: we assume that only drivers driving more than 20, 000 km per year will switch to fuel cell electrical vehicles. This corresponds to a total demand of 100 TWh of electricity for the production of hydrogen by electrolysis. To meet this demand, we primarily use surplus electricity production from wind power. This surplus will satisfy approximately 10% of the demand. We assume that the rest of the demand will be produced using surplus from nuclear power plants disseminated in regions. We also assume a decentralized production, namely, that 100 MW electrolyzers will be placed near electricity production plants. Using an optimization model, we define the hydrogen transport network by considering decentralized production. Then we compare it with more centralized production. Our main conclusion is that decentralized production makes it possible to significantly reduce distribution costs, particularly due to significantly shorter transport distances. |
| Abstract: | Ce travail vise à étudier la faisabilité technique et économique d'un nouveau réseau de transport d'hydrogène d'ici 2035 en France. L'objectif est d'équiper les bornes de recharge des véhicules électriques à pile à combustible avec de l'hydrogène produit par électrolyse de l'eau à partir d'une énergie bas carbone. Contrairement aux travaux de recherche antérieurs sur le transport de l'hydrogène pour le transport routier, nous supposons une hypothèse plus réaliste du côté de la demande : nous supposons que seuls les conducteurs parcourant plus de 20 000 km par an passeront aux véhicules électriques à pile à combustible. Cela correspond à une demande totale de 100 TWh d'électricité pour la production d'hydrogène par électrolyse. Pour répondre à cette demande, nous utilisons principalement la production excédentaire d'électricité issue de l'énergie éolienne. Ce surplus satisfera environ 10% de la demande. Nous supposons que le reste de la demande sera produit à partir des surplus des centrales nucléaires disséminés dans les régions. Nous supposons également une production décentralisée, à savoir que des électrolyseurs de 100 MW seront placés à proximité des centrales de production d'électricité. À l'aide d'un modèle d'optimisation, nous définissons le réseau de transport d'hydrogène en considérant une production décentralisée. Ensuite, nous le comparons à une production plus centralisée. Notre principale conclusion est que la production décentralisée permet de réduire significativement les coûts de distribution, notamment grâce à des distances de transport nettement plus courtes. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen transport, fuel cell electrical vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04953927 |
| By: | Rasch, Alexander (Chalmers University of Technology); Morando, Alberto; Thalya, Prateek |
| Abstract: | Electric scooters (e-scooters) are a relatively new and popular means of personal transportation in many cities. Unfortunately, they have been involved in crashes with other road users with whom they share the infrastructure. Crashes with motorized vehicles are particularly critical since they result in more severe injuries or even fatalities. While previous work has highlighted the consequences of failed interactions, we know little about how drivers interact with e-scooters and how to improve such interactions. In this paper, we conducted a test-track experiment to study how drivers negotiate a right turn at an intersection with an e-scooter. Using Bayesian regression, we modeled whether drivers yield to the e-scooter according to the projected post-encroachment time and approaching speed, and we were able to predict drivers’ intentions with an AUC of 0.94 and an accuracy of 0.82 in cross-validation. The model coefficients indicate that drivers yield less often when approaching the intersection at a higher speed or larger projected gap. We further modeled drivers’ braking timing (time-to-arrival) and strength (mean deceleration), yielding an RMSE of 1.42 s and 0.33 m/s^2^, respectively. Being a reference for driver behavior when interacting with an e-scooter rider, the model can be integrated into simulations and inform the development driver support system to warn drivers more effectively. |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vbrm5_v2 |
| By: | Marc Ivaldi (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Walter Nunez (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Based on bike-sharing systems (BSS) data in Toulouse and Lyon, this study examines the impact of COVID-19 on relevant variables to BSS usage. Our findings indicate significant changes in longer travel distances, which would be explained by users who use the BSS at peak hours. Also, there is evidence of a higher willingness to use BSS under adverse weather conditions (such as rain and wind), less substitution with the public transport system in Lyon, and recovery and even a slight increase of BSS trips for Toulouse and Lyon, respectively. These results suggest long-term changes in user habits, offering an excellent opportunity to develop public policies to promote cycling further. |
| Keywords: | Bike-sharing system, Covid-19 effects, Long-term changes. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04937733 |
| By: | Baciu, Dan Costa (Architektur Studio Bellerive) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the complex relationship between mobility, diversity, and perceived urban value by studying urban “chains of activities” that define city life. Introducing chains-of-activities-models (CHOAMs), we present a method for systematically analyzing how individuals move through the city and engage in a variety of urban activities. We also show that changing mobility options or the supply of activities can directly influence the ways people experience and the extent to which they value the urban environment. By facilitating rapid modeling and testing of scenarios, our research framework empowers urban planners, designers, and policymakers to envision cities as dynamic systems and leverage the relationship between mobility and diversity to optimize human-scale benefits. Through these insights obtainable through CHOAMs, the present article opens the door to a future of automated, proactive, and value-driven urban design. |
| Date: | 2025–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wuyp9_v3 |
| By: | Steve Lawford |
| Abstract: | I investigate how incumbents in the U.S. airline industry respond to threatened and actual route entry by Southwest Airlines. I use a two-way fixed effects and event study approach, and the latest available data from 1999-2022, to identify a firm's price and quantity response. I find evidence that incumbents cut fares preemptively (post-entry) by 6-8% (16-18%) although the significance, pattern, and timing of the preemptive cuts are quite different to Goolsbee and Syverson's (2008) earlier results. Incumbents increase capacity preemptively by 10-40%, up to six quarters before the entry threat is established, and by 27-46% post-entry. My results suggest a clear shift in firms' strategic response from price to quantity. I also investigate the impact of an incumbent's network structure on its preemptive and post-entry behaviour. While the results on price are unclear, a firm's post-entry capacity reaction depends strongly on its global network structure as well as the local importance (centrality) of the route. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.20418 |