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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline; Gibb, John; Zhang, Yunwan |
| Abstract: | Since the 1970s, stakeholders have expressed concerns about the ability of transportation travel demand used by metropolitan planning organizations to represent induced travel from expanded highway capacity. Failure to adequately represent induced travel will underestimate vehicle miles traveled and congestion when comparing scenarios with and without highway capacity expansion. To examine the magnitude of potential biases, the authors use the state-of-the-practice transportation demand model, the Sacramento Council of Governments (SACOG) SACSIM19 model, to examine (1) the model's representation of induced travel, (2) the influence of variation in key inputs on vehicle travel and roadway congestions, and (3) the effect of changes in induced travel-related input variables on the comparisons of scenarios with and without highway expansions. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Travel demand forecasting, induced travel, policy analysis |
| Date: | 2025–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0jc0v1gn |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel PhD; Pahwa, Anmol PhD; Saphores, Jean-Daniel PhD; Hyland, Michael PhD |
| Abstract: | As online shopping nears its third decade, it is clear that its impacts on urban goods flow are profound. Increased freight traffic and related negative externalities such as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution can impede sustainability goals. In response, e-retailers are exploring innovative distribution strategies to enhance last-mile delivery sustainability and efficiency. They use urban consolidation centers with light-duty vehicles like electric vans and cargo bikes, establish alternative customer pickup points, and deploy crowdsourced delivery networks. Advanced technologies that may streamline deliveries, such as autonomous delivery robots and unmanned aerial vehicles, are being tested. University of California Davis and Irvine researchers have investigated these strategies under economic viability, environmental efficiency, and social equity frameworks. Different modeling approaches were implemented to evaluate last-mile network designs and the potential for decarbonizing delivery fleets by switching to electric vehicles. Key findings suggest that while these innovative strategies offer substantial environmental benefits and reduce operational costs, they also present challenges like higher initial investments and operational hurdles. The study emphasizes the need for ongoing innovation and careful strategy implementation to balance sustainability with urban delivery systems’ economic and service reliability demands. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, First and last mile, electronic commerce, delivery service, delivery vehicles, electric vehicles, vehicle fleets, sustainable transportation, social equity |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt98x6z26j |
| By: | Restrepo, Laura; Fulton, Lewis; Wernert, Lukas |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews and analyzes the hydrogen-related targets and policies set for 2030 in California and the European Union, particularly related to the transportation sector. Both regions have strongly committed to decarbonizing transportation and transitioning toward clean energy sources, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology. We examine the projected hydrogen demand for light and heavy-duty vehicles, plans for hydrogen production and use, and infrastructure needed, such as refueling stations. We also review announced policy frameworks and strategies driving the transition to clean hydrogen energy in California and the EU. We also consider the impact of US-level policies on California and its hydrogen/fuel cell vehicle efforts. This paper reflects the situation in these jurisdictions as of December 2024. Potential changes in policy given the change in US administration in January of 2025 are not considered. Our investigation finds that concerning vehicles, both jurisdictions have adopted an ambitious yet largely technology-neutral approach, allowing for the coexistence of battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles. However, each has some policies and targets specific to promoting fuel cell vehicles; support for developing hydrogen systems is also typically fuel-specific in both jurisdictions and includes regulations and incentives. The policies address challenges such as sourcing low-carbon hydrogen, achieving cost competitiveness, and meeting the growing demand for clean electricity. Additionally, based on the targets set by California and the EU for 2030 regarding light and heavy-duty vehicles, buses, and hydrogen refueling stations (HRS), on a per-capita basis, California demonstrates somewhat greater ambition in both vehicles and HRS than the EU, by 2030. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9ps607c7 |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus |
| Abstract: | We examine the fine microstructure of commuting in a game-theoretic setting with a continuum of commuters. Commuters' home and work locations can be heterogeneous. A commuter transport network is exogenous. Traffic speed is determined by local congestion at a time and place along a link, where local congestion at a time and place is endogenous. The model can be reinterpreted to apply to congestion on the internet. We find sufficient conditions for existence of equilibrium, that multiple equilibria are ubiquitous, and that the welfare properties of morning and evening commute equilibria differ on a generalization of a directed tree. |
| Keywords: | Commuting; Internet traffic; Congestion externality; Efficient Nash equilibrium; Price of anarchy |
| JEL: | L86 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123553 |
| By: | Klein, Nicholas J. (Conrell University); Brown, Anne (University of Oregon); Howell, Amanda; Smart, Michael J. (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | How and why do zero-car households seek car access? We used a national online survey of 830 American adults and interviews with twenty-nine low- and moderate-income travelers about their car access behaviors to answer this question. We validated our findings with the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. Respondents got rides, borrowed cars, and used ride-hail to access grocery trips, social/recreational activities, and medical care. While most interviewees intend to purchase a vehicle in the future, they also desire better transit, suggesting that households without cars do not necessarily prefer car ownership. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4ngtr_v1 |
| By: | Giulia Brancaccio; Myrto Kalouptsidi; Theodore Papageorgiou |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide a simple and intuitive story for supply chain disruptions driven by the rigidities in the transportation sector. Focusing on maritime shipping, we argue that the frequent macroeconomic shocks that shape demand for transportation, meet a highly inelastic supply curve for transportation services. The steepness is driven by equilibrium bottlenecks in ships (transportation agents) and ports (transportation infrastructure). This leads to highly volatile shipping prices and port congestion, affecting importers and exporters worldwide. We discuss how both global trade and inflation react to these costs, so that disruptions pass through to the entire economy. |
| JEL: | E30 F0 L0 L90 L91 R4 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33452 |
| By: | Bergh, Andreas (Department of Economics, Lund University, and); Mehic, Adrian (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Sandberg, David (Department of Economics, Lund University); Wernberg, Joakim (Department of Technology and Society, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The rapid rise of e-scooters (electric scooters) in cities around the world, boosted by the introduction of shared e-scooter services has visibly reshaped the way people move around cities, sparking both excitement and controversy. With the increase in popularity of these vehicles, concerns regarding their impact on traffic safety and accidents have become a rising public concern. In this paper, we investigate the frequency of traffic accidents involving e scooters following the introduction of shared e-scooter services in Swedish municipalities during the period 2019-2022. We use a staggered difference-in-difference regression to identify the causal effect of shared e-scooters on various types of traffic accidents using municipalities without e-scooters as a control group. We present three main findings. First, overall accidents increase by approximately one standard deviation in the first quarter following the introduction of shared e-scooters, but the overall effect decreases (0.5-1 standard deviation) over five quarters and vanishes over nine quarters. Second, the increase in accidents involving e-scooters is not associated with an increase in pedestrian or bicycle accidents. Instead, e-scooters are predominantly involved in accidents with cars. Third, the observed increase in accidents is largely attributable to large metropolitan areas, where urban traffic is usually more complex and intensive. |
| Keywords: | Urban mobility; traffic accidents; e-scooters |
| JEL: | O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1520 |
| By: | Pkhikidze, Nino |
| Abstract: | Good road infrastructure decreases travel time and improves accessibility to urban areas. Improved rural-urban linkages could also affect rural employment through decreased time and travel costs. To study this link, the paper analyzes the impact of good quality roads on agricultural and non-agricultural jobs in Armenia, using different sets of data and different methodological approaches. To address endogeneity and reverse causality issues of road quality, the paper uses a historical instrumental variable obtained by digitizing historical roads which were mainly used for military purposes - from a military-topographic map of the Caucasus from 1903. The results show that a shorter distance to a good quality road has a statistically significant positive impact on overall non-agricultural employment for men and women, increasing the likelihood of cash-earning jobs for rural women and skilled manual and non-seasonal employment for rural men. People are more likely to work outside their villages and work for more hours if they have access to good quality roads. The results are robust from the analysis of Demographic and Health Survey as well as the Integrated Living Conditions Survey of Armenia. |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10847 |
| By: | Sebastian Martin Krantz |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes economically optimal investments in Africa’s road network in partial and general equilibrium —based on a detailed topography of the network, road con-struction costs, frictions in cross-border trading, and economic geography. Drawing from data on 144 million trans-continental routes, it first assesses local and global network efficiency and market access. It then derives a large network connecting 447 cities and 52 ports along the fastest routes, devises an algorithm to propose new links, analyzes the quality of existing links, and estimates link-level construction/upgrading costs. Subsequently, it computes market-access-maximizing investments in partial equilibrium and conducts cost-benefit analysis for individual links and several investment packages. Using a spatial economic model and global optimization over the space of networks, it finally elicits welfare-maximizing investments in spatial equilibrium. Findings imply that cross-border frictions and trade elasticities signifi-cantly shape optimal road investments. Reducing frictions yields the greatest benefits, followed by road upgrades and new construction. Sequencing matters, as reduced frictions generally increase investment returns. Returns to upgrading key links are large, even under frictions. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10893 |
| By: | Pabico, Jaderick (University of the Philippines Los Baños) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examined the implications of critical road segment failures on the timely evacuation of Borongan City residents, specifically focusing on the elderly demographics who face unique mobility challenges during emergencies. Building upon our prior work (Pabico, 2024), which utilized isochrone mapping to analyze accessibility, we broaden our approach to examine the impact of critical road segment failures on access to evacuation centers during disaster scenarios. By utilizing network analysis, we simulated potential road segment disruptions to determine the increased evacuation times for affected populations. Our criticality assessment identified those road segments whose failures would lead to significant delays, emphasizing their influence on evacuation efficiency for elderly residents, who represent the slowest-moving demographic and are therefore highly vulnerable in emergencies. Through this analysis, we not only highlight potential bottlenecks but also propose actionable insights for targeted disaster risk reduction strategies, including alternate route planning and prioritization of road maintenance in critical areas. Our findings underscore the need for integrative disaster risk reduction and management planning in Borongan City. We aim to provide local governments and emergency planners with evidence-based recommendations for improving evacuation infrastructure, optimizing emergency response protocols, and enhancing overall community resilience. Ultimately, we advocate for prioritizing vulnerable populations in evacuation planning to ensure that all residents, particularly the elderly, have timely access to safe evacuation centers during disasters. |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:s72zg_v1 |
| By: | Rousseau, Lola; Næss, Jan Sandstad; Carrer, Fabio; Amini, Sara; Brattebø, Helge; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Resource efficiency strategies are key to reduce material use and help limit global warming to below 2°C in 2100. Understanding the role of such strategies at municipal-level requires a localized approach. Here we evaluate a ramp-up of resource efficiency strategies and their associated effects on vehicle usage and climate benefits towards 2050 for 19 individual sub-regions within the Greater Oslo region in Norway. In our scenarios, material stocks increase from 344 megatonnes (Mt) in 2022 to 349-367 Mt in 2050 driven by population growth, with low-end estimate relying on a sufficiency scenario limiting floor area per capita and banning new single-family houses. The sufficiency (SUF) scenario reduces total material consumption until 2050 (48 Mt) with 28% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (66.3 Mt) with continuation of ongoing trends, thereby reducing GHG emissions from material production by 17% (BAU: 12.44 MtCO2-eq, SUF: 10.36 MtCO2-eq). If resource efficiency strategies are combined with rapid material production decarbonization in-line with a 2°C scenario, a 30% reduction in emissions is achievable (8.67 MtCO2-eq). Car ownership rates and traveled distance per capita decrease in the sufficiency scenario compared to 2022 with 6.4%. Assuming the current relationship between settlement characteristics and transport demand, total driving distance fails to decline due to population growth. Limiting the floor-area per capita in residential buildings significantly decreases material demand. Resource efficiency strategies including densification need to be complemented with a rapid decarbonization of material supply and stronger incentives to move away from car driving to maximize climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9ek48_v1 |
| By: | Ayan Qu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how effective an incremental change in the price of fuel, a proxy for fuel carbon tax, is in reducing the emission intensity of road transportation in Brazil through panel analysis at the federative unit level from 2010 to 2020, after offering descriptive insights into Brazil’s automotive fuel market with respect to its products, actors, and external factors. The paper postulates multiple variations of panel analysis models and focuses on dynamic two-way fixed effects models based on statistical results. The findings show that (1) the price of diesel has the most significant and robust impact on reducing emission intensity; (2) the short-run and long-run elasticities of the price of diesel are -0.74 and -2.06, respectively; and (3) both entity and time effects are significant, with the year of 2020 having a consistent effect in reducing emission intensity across the estimated models. |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10926 |
| By: | NIFOROU, ARGYRO-CHRISTINA; METAXAS, THEODORE |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to examine the impacts that COVID-19 has over maritime sector and especially how it effects the set transportation in India. In order to better appreciate resilience in the maritime industry, the study conducted secondary research to identify the impacts of COVID-19 in Indian economy, supply chain and crew changes. The COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on every aspect of our lives, including the maritime industry. This industry, which is responsible for transporting 80% of global, has been hit hard by the pandemic since 2020. From disruptions in the global supply chain to the global economy and crew changes, the impact of COVID-19 on the maritime industry has been unprecedented. This paper will represent the factors of the pandemic and how it has affected maritime. The study reckon that the contribution of this work will spread awareness to the public about the problem that has been created in the last three years |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Maritime sector; sea transportation; supply chain; crew change crisis; India |
| JEL: | F10 F19 L91 O53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123492 |
| By: | Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the factors affecting governments’ mixed use of tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) as trade and industrial policies. Results based on detailed bilateral-product-level ad valorem equivalent estimates for a wide range of countries show that restrictive NTMs coexist with lower tariffs, particularly for high-income importing countries, low-income exporting countries, country pairs with deep trade agreements, and products with consumption externalities. A terms-of-trade model with externalities rationalizes the results. The model is further used to shed light on the recent Sino-EU battery electric vehicle (BEV) disputes, whereby the EU imposed NTMs on top of the tariffs on China’s BEVs. |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10855 |