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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Ramadoss, Trisha; Davis, Adam; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | The path to transportation decarbonization will rely heavily on electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. EV diffusion forecasting tools are necessary to predict the impacts of EVs on local energy demand and environmental quality. Few EV adoption models operate at a fine spatial scale and those that do still rely on aggregated demographic information. This adoption model is one of the first attempts to employ a synthetic population to examine EV distribution at a fine spatial and demographic scale. Using a synthetic population at the Census-Tract-level, enriched with household fleet body types and home-charging access, the researchers consider the effect of vehicle body type on EV spatial distribution and home-charging access in California. The project examines two EV body type mixes in a high electrification scenario where 8 million EVs are distributed across 6 million households in California: a “Small Vehicles” scenario where 6 million EVs are passenger cars and 2 million EVs are trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), or vans and a “Large Vehicles” scenario with 4 million of each category. The authors find that an electrification scenario with more electric trucks and SUVs serves to distribute electrified households more evenly throughout the state, shifting them from urban to rural counties, while there is little impact on home-charging access. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, synthetic population, EV adoption, electric vehicle market |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2b05w8pk |
| By: | Miquel-Angel Garcia Lopez; Luz Yadira Gomez-Hernandez; Rosa Sanchis-Guarner |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a theoretical framework to study the relationship between expanded road capacity, traffic volumes and increased economic activity. We build on Anas (2024) to show that increased volumes do not necessarily lead to congestion if adjustments in economic factors, such as population or employment, are not substantial. We test our predictions obtaining key estimates with data from Great Britain between 2001 and 2020 and adopting a shift-share instrumental variable approach. We find that the elasticity of vehicle kilometres travelled to road capacity improvements is positive and statistically different from 1 across different specifications, while the elasticity of population and employment is positive but smaller than 1. In our framework this implies that the cost of driving does not increase above initial levels, resulting in higher consumer surplus through changes in travel demand and time savings. |
| Keywords: | transportation, road capacity, aggregate travel cost, economic activity |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2034 |
| By: | Li, Meiqing; Rodríguez, Daniel A. PhD; Pike, Susie PhD; McNally, Michael PhD |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public transit ridership in the United States, especially for rail transit. Land use, development density, and the pedestrian environment are strongly associated with station-level transit ridership. This study examines how these characteristics affect transit ridership pre- and post-COVID and how they differ across station types based on longitudinal data for 242 rail stations belonging to Bay Area Rapid Transit, San Diego Metropolitan Transit System, Sacramento Regional Transit, and LA Metro between 2019 and 2021. We found overall a 72% decrease in station-level ridership, but changes were not uniform. Station areas with a higher number of low-income workers and more retail or entertainment jobs tend to have lower ridership declines, while areas with a large number of high-income workers, high-wage jobs, and higher job accessibility by transit had more ridership losses. When comparing station area ridership and activity changes based on mobile phone user data, ridership declined more drastically than activity across all four rail systems, which implies that rail transit riders switched to other modes of transportation when accessing the station areas. Given these findings, it is likely that rail transit services oriented toward commute travel, especially core station areas with jobs for higher income workers, will continue to have an uneven recovery, posing critical implications for transit resilience planning and equity in the post-pandemic era. Considering sources of funding other than passenger fares to sustain rail transit, strategizing to reinvent and reinforce downtowns as destinations, and shifting rail transit services to appeal to non-commute travel can be promising strategies to support rail transit. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Rail transit, ridership, rail transit stations, travel behavior, mode choice, demographics, financing |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt07b5s42c |
| By: | B. Ajay Krishna (Ph.D. Scholar, Madras School of Economics, Chennai); K.S. Kavi Kumar ((Corresponding Author) Director, Professor, Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Chennai) |
| Abstract: | The sustainability of urban transportation has emerged as a significant area of research, particularly in urban centres of developing countries due to its notable economic, social, and environmental implications. This paper presents an indicator-based approach to evaluate the sustainability of urban road transit systems in Indian metropolitan cities. A set of 24 indicators is identified and analysed across five metropolitan cities under the sustainability framework, and an index – Sustainable Urban Road Transport Index (SURTI) – is constructed to rank these cities. Further, to allow for comparisons across both space and time, SURTI is constructed for 2010 and 2020 to analyse the decadal variations in relative performance of the metropolitan cities. The study also attempts to illustrate how alternative approaches in Index calculation could influence relative ranking-based outcomes. The study's findings indicate that Mumbai and Kolkata appear to consistently perform better across time and location. Meanwhile, Bangalore has improved substantially during the last decade, whereas Chennai's poor performance has resulted in a rapid decrease in SURTI scores and rankings. The study highlights key transport metrics where cities can potentially improve. The study's findings could prove relevant to policymakers and mobility planners in their attempts to build a sustainable road transport system and address inefficiencies in the key performance areas highlighted in this study |
| Keywords: | Composite index; Principal component analysis; Sustainability indicators; Transport indicators; Urban road transport. |
| JEL: | C38 C43 Q01 R40 R49 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2024-261 |
| By: | Peterson, Lisa; Nguyen Vo, Karen |
| Abstract: | The UC Berkeley Safe Transportation Research and Education Center (SafeTREC) has released the California Traffic Safety Survey 2024. The study was led by Ewald & Wasserman Research Consultants (E&W) and conducted on behalf of the California Office of Traffic Safety (OTS) and SafeTREC. The California Traffic Safety Survey has been conducted annually since 2010 to gain a better understanding of a range of traffic safety behaviors, and to help inform traffic safety programs and public education campaigns. This year’s survey was conducted with an online panel of California drivers in all California counties for a total of 2, 507 respondents, with the majority of those surveyed (57.9% weighted) coming from Southern California and falling within the 18-44 age range. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, traffic safety, distracted driving, driving under the influence, pedestrian safety, bicyclist safety, driverless vehicles |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9337t614 |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam; Wolfe, Brooke; Martin, Elliot PhD |
| Abstract: | Microtransit is a technology-enabled transit service that typically employs shuttles or vans (Figure 1) to provide on-demand transportation with dynamic routing. While many rides are dispatched and paid via a smartphone, many services also provide a telephone booking option. A few services accept cash payment and street hails (similar to taxis). Variations of microtransit can include fixed schedules and routes and larger or smaller vehicles. Typically, microtransit services are operated by or provided on behalfof a government entity or nonprofit organization, although privately operated microtransit programs also might exist. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2qs445kh |
| By: | Bhuyan, Prajamitra; Jana, Kaushik; McCoy, Emma J. |
| Abstract: | Transport engineers employ various interventions to enhance traffic-network performance. Quantifying the impacts of Cycle Superhighways is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such an intervention over the transport network. Treatment effects on asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions are better reflected at extreme tails rather than at the median. We propose a novel method to estimate the treatment effect at extreme tails incorporating heavy-tailed features in the outcome distribution. The analysis of London transport data using the proposed method indicates that the extreme traffic flow increased substantially after Cycle Superhighways came into operation. |
| Keywords: | causality; extreme value analysis; heavy-tailed distribution; potential outcome; quantile regression; transport engineering; AAM requested |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2023–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121622 |
| By: | Minyu Shen; Feng Xiao; Weihua Gu; Hongbo Ye |
| Abstract: | When making route decisions, travelers may engage in a certain degree of reasoning about what the others will do in the upcoming day, rendering yesterday's shortest routes less attractive. This phenomenon was manifested in a recent virtual experiment that mimicked travelers' repeated daily trip-making process. Unfortunately, prevailing day-to-day traffic dynamical models failed to faithfully reproduce the collected flow evolution data therein. To this end, we propose a day-to-day traffic behavior modeling framework based on the Cognitive Hierarchy theory, in which travelers with different levels of strategic-reasoning capabilities form their own beliefs about lower-step travelers' capabilities when choosing their routes. Two widely-studied day-to-day models, the Network Tatonnement Process dynamic and the Logit dynamic, are extended into the framework and studied as examples. Calibration of the virtual experiment is performed using the extended Network Tatonnement Process dynamic, which fits the experimental data reasonably well. We show that the two extended dynamics have multiple equilibria, one of which is the classical user equilibrium. While analyzing global stability is intractable due to the presence of multiple equilibria, local stabilities near equilibria are developed analytically and verified by numerical experiments. General insights on how key parameters affect the stability of user equilibria are unveiled. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.11908 |
| By: | Harry O'Rahilly (Department of Economics and School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland); Patrick Paul Walsh (Department of Economics and School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | We model the retail motor fuel market in Ireland in a two-stage market entry game, with exogenous sunk costs in stage one, and price competition with horizontal product differentiation in stage two, utilizing Salop (1979). Using GIS tools, we show how driving times, benchmarked against road distance and straight-line measures, alter estimates of the disutility of traveling between rival locations. We estimate a robust and unbiased long-run equilibrium relationship between mark-ups and market structure, identified by driving times between locations to conduct an ex-post evaluation of a merger and divestment remedies in the retail motor fuel market in Ireland. |
| Keywords: | Market Structure, Performance; Spatial Econometrics |
| JEL: | L10 L38 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202404 |
| By: | Rousseau, Lola; Næss, Jan Sandstad; Carrer, Fabio; Amini, Sara; Brattebø, Helge; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Resource efficiency strategies are key to reduce material use and help limit global warming to below 2°C in 2100. Understanding the role of such strategies at municipal-level requires a localized approach. Here we evaluate a ramp-up of resource efficiency strategies and their associated effects on vehicle usage and climate benefits towards 2050 for 19 individual sub-regions within the Greater Oslo region in Norway. In our scenarios, material stocks increase from 344 megatonnes (Mt) in 2022 to 349-367 Mt in 2050 driven by population growth, with low-end estimate relying on a sufficiency scenario limiting floor area per capita and banning new single-family houses. The sufficiency (SUF) scenario reduces total material consumption until 2050 (48 Mt) with 28% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (66.3 Mt) with continuation of ongoing trends, thereby reducing GHG emissions from material production by 17% (BAU: 12.44 MtCO2-eq, SUF: 10.36 MtCO2-eq). If resource efficiency strategies are combined with rapid material production decarbonization in-line with a 2°C scenario, a 30% reduction in emissions is achievable (8.67 MtCO2-eq). Car ownership rates and traveled distance per capita decrease in the sufficiency scenario compared to 2022 with 6.4%. Assuming the current relationship between settlement characteristics and transport demand, total driving distance fails to decline due to population growth. Limiting the floor-area per capita in residential buildings significantly decreases material demand. Resource efficiency strategies including densification need to be complemented with a rapid decarbonization of material supply and stronger incentives to move away from car driving to maximize climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9ek48 |
| By: | Fixler, Noelani; Ornelas, Lucia; Leckie, Kris |
| Abstract: | This research brief explores how the Safe System Approach works to reframe the current landscape in the United States to promote equitable transportation policies and planning. Topics identified for further discussion and analysis from current literature on equity and the Safe System Approach include 1) engaging diverse communities in transportation planning, 2) turning towards equity to address past systemic injustices, and 3) employing education and prevention strategies to promote “upstream” versus “downstream” (i.e., traditional) approaches. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1sz522bj |
| By: | Silvio Sticher; Hannes Wallimann; Noah Balthasar |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of a gamified experiment designed to promote sustainable mobility among students and staff members of a Swiss higher-education institution. Despite transportation being a major contributor to domestic CO2 emissions, achieving behavioral change remains challenging. In our two-month mobility competition, structured as a randomized controlled trial with a 3x3 factorial design, neither monetary incentives nor norm-based nudging significantly influences mobility behavior. Our (null) results suggest that there is no "gamified quick fix" for making mobility substantially more sustainable. Also, we provide some lessons learned on how not to incentivize sustainable mobility by addressing potential shortcomings of our mobility competition. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.11142 |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal; Shashwat Alok; Sergio Correia; Deepa Mani; Bernardo Morais |
| Abstract: | We analyze the staggered entry of rideshare services across U.S. metropolitan areas, estimating its effect on the spatial redistribution and real outcomes of residents. Ridesharing services gentrify urban areas-especially those with ex-ante lower housing values-causing housing prices to rise 9 percent, with the in-migration of rich-younger individuals more than offsetting the out-migration of incumbent residents and reduced in-migration of poorer individuals. Impact on incumbent residents is conditional on ex-ante homeownership. For homeowners, there is no displacement and a decline in delinquency rates. For non-homeowners, displacement and delinquency rates rise 11 percent and 42 percent, respectively. Our study emphasizes how the private provision of high-end transportation technologies can increase urbanization and exacerbate inequality. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.15462 |
| By: | Correia, Isabel; Melo, Teresa |
| Abstract: | This study addresses a two-echelon network design problem that determines the location and size of new warehouses, the removal of company-owned warehouses, the inventory levels of multiple products at the warehouses, and the assignment of suppliers as well as customers to warehouses over a multi-period planning horizon. A distinctive feature of our problem is that new warehouses operate with modular capacities that can be expanded or reduced over several periods, the latter not necessarily having to be consecutive. Moreover, in every period, the demand of a customer for a given product has to be satisfied by a single warehouse. This problem arises in the context of warehousing-as-a-service, a business scheme that offers flexible conditions for temporary capacity leasing. The associated fixed warehouse lease cost reflects economies of scale in the capacity size and the length of the lease contract. We develop a mixed-integer linear programming formulation and propose a matheuristic to solve this problem, which exploits the structure of the optimal solution of the linear relaxation to successively assign customers to open warehouses and fix other binary variables related to warehouse operation. Additional variable fixing rules are also developed, based on a scheme for managing inventories at warehouses and using the quantities provided by suppliers. Numerical experiments with randomly generated large-sized instances reveal that the proposed matheuristic outperforms a general-purpose solver in 74% of the instances by identifying higher quality solutions in a substantially shorter computing time. |
| Keywords: | network design, temporary warehouse rental, capacity expansion and reduction, mixed integer programming, matheuristic |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:htwlog:303044 |