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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Lucas javaudin; André de Palma (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Transport simulators can be used to compute the equilibrium between transporta- tion demand and supply within complex transportation systems. However, despite their theoretical foundations, there is a lack of comparative analysis between simula- tor results and theoretical models in the literature. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing METROPOLIS2, a novel mesoscopic transport simulator capable of simulating agents’ travel decisions (including mode, departure-time, and route choice), based on discrete-choice theory within a dynamic, continuous-time framework. We demonstrate METROPOLIS2’s functionality through its application to the single-road bottleneck model and validate its ability to replicate analytical results. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive overview of METROPOLIS2 in large-scale scenarios. Fi- nally, we compare METROPOLIS2’s results with those of the original METROPOLIS1 simulator in a simulation of Paris, highlighting its speed and ability to converge to an equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | transport simulation; agent-based modeling; bottleneck; dynamic traffic assignment; discrete-choice models |
| JEL: | C63 R4 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2024-03&r=tre |
| By: | Verde, Stefano F.; Di Cosmo, Valeria |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a dynamic carbon tax (DCT) that stabilises gasoline prices by adjusting inversely to crude oil prices. Compared to a standard fixed-rate carbon tax, the DCT can be expected to cut more CO2 emissions while receiving greater public support. Therefore, it could be a useful instrument for accelerating the ecological transition. The analysis is articulated in three parts. First, we show how, in the context of vehicle choice decisions, any policy that reduces uncertainty about future gasoline prices improves the expected utility of more fuel-efficient vehicles relative to less efficient ones. Second, we show how a DCT could be designed to automatically stabilise gasoline prices and thereby reduce price uncertainty. Third, we conduct an econometric test for whether gasoline price volatility, considered as a proxy for price uncertainty, negatively affects vehicle fuel efficiency. Using microdata from the 2017 National Household Transport Survey, we test for negative correlation between gasoline price volatility and fuel efficiency of new vehicles sold in the US. Evidence of a negative correlation is indeed found despite limited volatility of gasoline prices in the study period. Further tests are warranted using data from different time periods and alternative model specifications. |
| Keywords: | Carbon taxation, Gasoline prices, Vehicle choice, Fuel efficiency, Energy transition |
| JEL: | H2 H23 H3 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120485&r=tre |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Hyuk-Soo Kwon; Shanjun Li |
| Abstract: | Attribute-based subsidies (ABS) are commonly used to promote the diffusion of energy-efficient products, whose manufacturers often wield significant market power. We develop a theoretical framework for the optimal design of ABS to account for endogenous product attributes, environmental externalities, and market power. We then estimate an equilibrium model of China's vehicle market under ABS and conduct counterfactual simulations to evaluate the welfare impacts of various subsidy designs. Compared to the uniform subsidies, ABS lead to higher product quality and are more effective in mitigating quantity distortions, albeit with a modest environmental cost. Between 42% to 62% of welfare gains under ABS relative to uniform subsidies are attributed to more desirable product attributes, with the remainder explained by reductions in market power distortions. Allowing subsidy redistribution through product-level subsidies, as suggested by our theoretical model, further enhances welfare gains by an additional 34% to 62%. Among the ABS designs, China's notched subsidy design based on driving range leads to vehicle downsizing that undermines welfare benefits. Subsidies based on battery capacity, as implemented in the U.S., achieve the highest welfare gains by effectively balancing market power and environmental impacts. |
| JEL: | L13 L52 L62 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32264&r=tre |
| By: | Choi, Jae Hee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 중국 전기차 배터리 시장의 현황과 중국산 배터리의 글로벌 경쟁력에 대해 살펴보고, 중국기업의 유형별 해외 진출 사례와 특징을 분석했다. 또한 중국의 대표 전기차 배터리 기업을 선정하여 해당 기업의 해외 사업 전략과 경쟁력을 파악하고, 우리 정부와 기업이 활용할 수 있는 종합적인 대응방안을 고찰했다. Chinese EV battery companies, which dominate the Chinese domestic market, are recently entering global market in earnest. The demand for Chinese batteries is also rising as the demand for batteries increases due to the rapid pace of EV conversion in major automobile markets such as Europe and the United States. As the global market share of Chinese companies rises rapidly, the market share of Korean battery companies, which previously dominated the global battery market, is falling. As competition between Korea and China is expected to intensify in the global market in the future, it can be said that identifying the types and characteristics of Chinese companies’ global expansion and analyzing the strategies and competitiveness of major companies is essential to enhancing and maintaining the global competitiveness of the Korean battery industry. Accordingly, this study aims to examine the current status of the Chinese market and the global competitiveness of Chinese batteries, and to understand the characteristics of each type of global expansion of Chinese companies. In addition, I selected China’s leading EV battery companies to analyze their strategies and competitiveness, and consider comprehensive countermeasures that the Korean government and companies can utilize. In Chapter 2, to examine the development of the Chinese EV battery industry, I examines the Chinese market in terms of supply and demand, and identified the recent oversupply phenomenon that has emerged in the Chinese market. I also compared the level of competitiveness of the Chinese battery industry with that of Korea. First of all, in terms of demand, China is already the world’s largest EV battery market, and battery demand is expected to grow continuously until 2025, reaching more than 1TWh. In the Chinese EV battery market, the demand for LFP batteries compared to ternary batteries is increasing rapidly, and LFP batteries are used in 67% of Chinese EVs in 2023. On the supply side, CATL secures a majority of the market share in the ternary battery sector, and BYD and CATL occupy more than 70% of the market in the LFP battery sector. In addition, as the production capacity of batteries in China increases rapidly, the oversupply phenomenon in the Chinese market is intensifying. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Economic security; energy industry; China; battery; electric vehicle battery; secondary battery; supply chain |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:2023_012&r=tre |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Jaehyun Ha |
| Abstract: | Street networks allow people and goods to move through cities, but they are vulnerable to disasters like floods, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks. Well-planned network design can make a city more resilient and robust to such disruptions, but we still know little about worldwide patterns of vulnerability, or worldwide empirical relationships between specific design characteristics and resilience. This study quantifies and measures the vulnerability of the street networks of every urban area in the world then models the relationships between vulnerability and street network design characteristics. To do so, we simulate over 2.4 billion trips across more than 8, 000 urban areas in 178 countries, while also simulating network disruption events representing floods, earthquakes, and targeted attacks. We find that disrupting high-centrality nodes severely impacts network function. All else equal, networks with higher connectivity, fewer chokepoints, or less circuity are less vulnerable to disruption's impacts. This study thus contributes a new global understanding of network design and vulnerability to the literature. We argue that these design characteristics offer high leverage points for street network resilience and robustness that planners should emphasize when designing or retrofitting urban networks. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.10636&r=tre |
| By: | Moez Kilani; André de Palma (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We analyze spatial competition on a circle between firms that have multiple outlets and face quadratic transport costs. The equilibrium is a two-stage Nash game: first, firms decide on their locations and then set their prices. We are able to solve analytically simple multi-outlet cases, but for the general case, we require an algorithm to enumerate all non-isomorphic configurations. While price equilibria are explicit and unique, solving the full two-stage game requires numerical methods. In the location game, we consider two scenarios: either firms cannot jump one outlet over a competitors’ outlet, or firms have the flexibility to locate outlets anywhere on the circle. The solution involves a balance between cannibalization, market protection, and spatial monopoly power. We compare prices, profits, and transport costs for all possible configurations. With flexible locations, the firms’ market areas are contiguous. In this case, surprisingly, each firm acts as a spatial monopoly. If regulations enforce that each firm must set the same price for its outlets, head-to-head competition prevails, leading to decreased profits for the firms but to a better-off situation for consumers. |
| Keywords: | Spatial competition, circle, multi-product oligopoly, price-location equilibria, coin change problem |
| JEL: | L13 R32 R53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2023-18&r=tre |
| By: | Nazir, Khurram; Lodhi, Muhammad Saeed; Ahmad, Zia; Ahmad, Saba |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is one of the third-world countries where technological adaptation is in its initial stages, with several initiatives/projects in the pipeline and others awaited to accomplish for setting the benchmark in their respective areas. Similarly, to meet the dire need for time, the communication sector is also working on advancements and automation in transportation by implementing Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) along its major highways. However, shifting from traditional to modern practices in the transportation sector has shown minimal progress; it has proven a tiresome and laborious process, putting the interest of foreign investors at stack as well. This research, therefore, is meant primarily to elaborate on the Barrier factors hindering the Effectiveness and Development of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Projects in Pakistan and their addresses prudently by measuring their impact in terms of system, function ability, and potential benefits. The analysis will be made using the Partial Least Square technique of the "Structural Equation Modeling" method (PLS-SEM) by constructing and analyzing the data collected from various sources with the help of a questionnaire; the reliability will be established using the Crone batch alpha technique. The results demonstrated remarkable dependence on the Effectiveness & Development (E&D) of ITS on the failure of Policy & Governance, Financial and Technical drought, lack of Exposure and Infrastructure integration, and Rapid urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Intelligent Transportation System, Green Mobility, Sound infrastructure, Smart Mobility, Geographic Information System, Internet of Things, Project Risks. |
| JEL: | R42 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120367&r=tre |
| By: | Ahmet Duhan Yassa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of urban sprawl and urban mobility on long-term fuel consumption after the 2011 Van earthquake in Türkiye. Both province-level synthetic control and firm-level difference-in-differences (DID) analyses indicate a statistically significant increase in fuel consumption in Van after the earthquake, even though there was no dramatic change in the main determinants of fuel consumption in the province in this period. Findings from the satellite-supported population density images and sensor-level traffic density data reveal that rising population density in peripheral regions and increasing urban mobility within the province are the potential drivers of the rise in fuel consumption. While the impact of the Van earthquake on fuel consumption, the foreign trade deficit and greenhouse gas emissions was limited given the size of the city, the results highlight the potential impact of other major disasters that have occurred in the recent past and are expected to occur in the future. |
| Keywords: | Urban sprawl, Fuel consumption, Earthquake, Synthetic control, Greenhouse gas emissions, Trade deficit |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2401&r=tre |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Ha, Jaehyun |
| Abstract: | Street networks allow people and goods to move through cities, but they are vulnerable to disasters like floods, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks. Well-planned network design can make a city more resilient and robust to such disruptions, but we still know little about worldwide patterns of vulnerability, or worldwide empirical relationships between specific design characteristics and resilience. This study quantifies and measures the vulnerability of the street networks of every urban area in the world then models the relationships between vulnerability and street network design characteristics. To do so, we simulate over 2.4 billion trips across more than 8, 000 urban areas in 178 countries, while also simulating network disruption events representing floods, earthquakes, and targeted attacks. We find that disrupting high-centrality nodes severely impacts network function. All else equal, networks with higher connectivity, fewer chokepoints, or less circuity are less vulnerable to disruption's impacts. This study thus contributes a new global understanding of network design and vulnerability to the literature. We argue that these design characteristics offer high leverage points for street network resilience and robustness that planners should emphasize when designing or retrofitting urban networks. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tk93y&r=tre |