|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Scherrer, Aline; Helferich, Marvin; Speth, Daniel; Link, Steffen |
| Abstract: | The electrification of heavy-duty road transport and logistics operations presents a significant challenge in meeting CO2 reduction goals. Despite increasing attention to battery-electric trucks (BETs) as a primary strategy among manufacturers, their market share remains limited in Europe and Germany. Logistics companies, as primary users of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), face various challenges such as tight budgets, time constraints, and diverse operational needs, which significantly influence the adoption of BETs. Previous studies have identified general key obstacles including purchase price, charging infrastructure availability, vehicle range, payload limitations, total ownership costs, technology perception, and operational adaptations. However, further investigation is needed to understand company-specific requirements and operations of different logistics segments, especially regarding charging infrastructure limitations. This study employs a mixed methods approach to explore logistic companies' perspectives on charging infrastructure and BET adoption. A survey of German logistics companies, followed by semi-structured interviews, provides insights into current fleet operations, attitudes towards BETs, and motivations for electrification. The survey findings highlight the diverse vehicle types and driving profiles within logistics fleets, with a focus on identifying most readily electrifiable trucks (RETs) based on usage patterns. Analyses of survey data, conducted mainly through descriptive statistics, reveal the complexities of trip planning, on-site charging infrastructure, and public charging implications for BET adoption. Interviews with selected respondents further delve into company characteristics, daily operations, usage intentions, and barriers related to BET adoption and charging infrastructure. The results indicate that the regularity and plannability of trips differs across tour types and distances, impacting the potential integration of BETs in operations. Tour regularity varies greatly for individual vehicles beyond urban applications, impacting the flexibility needed for charging. The longest coherent parking time is predominantly spent on private property, with home depots being more important than client locations. Challenges for establishing and using charging infrastructure include the lack of medium voltage grid connections for fast charging at home depots, heterogeneous conditions at client waiting and loading areas, and uncertainties regarding the availability and operational integration of public charging infrastructure. Companies in the sample operating a large number of RETs also hold the most positive attitudes towards BETs, with some already deploying such vehicles. Factors influencing the engagement of logistics companies in fleet electrification include personal motivations, growing customer demands for decarbonised transport, and regulatory requirements. Methodological limitations of the study include a bias towards large fleets in the sample, limiting extrapolation of findings to the broader market. Key recommendations include addressing barriers to at-home and client location charging to support fleet electrification efforts effectively. The findings provide insights into the operational considerations and motivations driving charging infrastructure deployment and fleet electrification. Furthermore, they offer implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to accelerate the transition to electric HDVs. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:285361&r=tre |
| By: | Adeline Gu\'eret; Wolf-Peter Schill; Carlos Gaete-Morales |
| Abstract: | Electrifying the car fleet is a major strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. However, electrification alone will not solve all the negative externalities associated with cars. In light of other problems such as street space as well as concerns about the use of mineral resources for battery electric cars, reducing the car fleet size would be beneficial, particularly in cities. Carsharing could offer a way to reconcile current car usage habits with a reduction in the car fleet size. However, it could also reduce the potential of electric cars to align their grid interactions with variable renewable electricity generation. We investigate how electric carsharing may impact the power sector in the future. We combine three open-source quantitative methods, including sequence clustering of car travel diaries, a probabilistic tool to generate synthetic electric vehicle time series, and an optimization model of the power sector. For 2030 scenarios of Germany with a renewable share of at least 80%, we show that switching to electric carsharing only moderately increases power sector costs. In our main setting, carsharing increases yearly power sector costs by less than 100 euros per substituted private electric car. This cost effect is largest under the assumption of bidirectional charging. It is mitigated when other sources of flexibility for the power sector are considered. Carsharing further causes a shift from wind power to solar PV in the optimal capacity mix, and may also trigger additional investments in stationary electricity storage. Overall, we find that shared electric cars still have the potential to be operated largely in line with variable renewable electricity generation. We conclude that electric carsharing is unlikely to cause much damage to the power sector, but could bring various other benefits, which may outweigh power sector cost increases. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.19380&r=tre |
| By: | Chung Yi See; Vasco Rato Santos; Lucas Woodley; Megan Yeo; Daniel Palmer; Shuheng Zhang; Ashley Nunes |
| Abstract: | Although electric vehicles are less polluting than gasoline powered vehicles, adoption is challenged by higher procurement prices. Existing discourse emphasizes EV battery costs as being principally responsible for this price differential and widespread adoption is routinely conditioned upon battery costs declining. We scrutinize such reasoning by sourcing data on EV attributes and market conditions between 2011 and 2023. Our findings are fourfold. First, EV prices are influenced principally by the number of amenities, additional features, and dealer-installed accessories sold as standard on an EV, and to a lesser extent, by EV horsepower. Second, EV range is negatively correlated with EV price implying that range anxiety concerns may be less consequential than existing discourse suggests. Third, battery capacity is positively correlated with EV price, due to more capacity being synonymous with the delivery of more horsepower. Collectively, this suggests that higher procurement prices for EVs reflects consumer preference for vehicles that are feature dense and more powerful. Fourth and finally, accommodating these preferences have produced vehicles with lower fuel economy, a shift that reduces envisioned lifecycle emissions benefits by at least 3.26 percent, subject to the battery pack chemistry leveraged and the carbon intensity of the electrical grid. These findings warrant attention as decarbonization efforts increasingly emphasize electrification as a pathway for complying with domestic and international climate agreements. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.00458&r=tre |
| By: | Bruno F. Oliveira; Alessandro V. M. Oliveira |
| Abstract: | This study aims to discuss the impacts of a low-cost airline on the air transport market and, especially, to present the most recent findings from specialized literature in the field. To this end, various works on this topic, published since 2015, were selected and analyzed. From this analysis, it was possible to categorize the main topics discussed in the papers into five groups: (i) the impacts of a low-cost airline on competing airlines; (ii) impacts on airports; (iii) general impacts on the demand for air transport; (iv) effects on passengers' choice process; and (v) general effects on a geographical region. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.11372&r=tre |
| By: | Jan K. Brueckner; Matthew E. Kahn; Jerry Nickelsburg |
| Abstract: | The durability of the transportation capital stock slows down the pace of decarbonization since newer vintages feature cutting-edge technology. If older vintages were to be retired sooner, the social cost of travel would decline. This paper analyzes and explores the viability of a potential cash-for-clunkers program for the airline industry, which would help to hasten decarbonization of US aviation. Our estimation and calculations show that airlines can be induced to scrap rather than sell older planes upon retirement with a payment that is less than the forgone carbon damage, yielding net social benefits. |
| JEL: | Q54 R49 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32205&r=tre |
| By: | Songyot Kitthamkesorn; Anthony Chen |
| Abstract: | Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) models depict the perception differences in traffic assignment problems. According to the assumption of an unbounded perceived travel time distribution, the conventional SUE problems result in a positive choice probability for all available routes, regardless of their unappealing travel time. This study provides an eUnit-SUE model to relax this assumption. The eUnit model is derived from a bounded probability distribution. This closed-form model aligns with an exponentiated random utility maximization (ERUM) paradigm with the exponentiated uniform distributed random error, where the lower and upper bounds endogeneously determine the route usage. Specifically, a Beckmann-type mathematical programming formulation is presented for the eUnit-SUE problem. The equivalency and uniqueness properties are rigorously proven. Numerical examples reveal that the eUnit bound range between the lower and upper bounds greatly affects the SUE assignment results. A larger bound range increases not only the number of routes in the choice set but also the degree of dispersion in the assignment results due to a larger route-specific perception variance. The misperception is contingent upon the disparity between the shortest and longest travel times and the bounds. As the bound range decreases, the shortest route receives significant flow allocation, and the assignment result approaches the deterministic user equilibrium (DUE) flow pattern. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.18435&r=tre |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Martin , Elliot PhD; Cohen, Adam |
| Abstract: | This brief explores how shared micromobility (bikesharing and scooter sharing) has evolved since the pandemic. Primary data for this report were collected through four surveys: An Operator Survey (n=25) and an Agency Survey (n=52) distributed between January 2022 and May 2022 to all known shared micromobility operators and agencies and included questions about the attributes of shared micromobility systems1 operating within those agency jurisdictions and operator markets; and a similar Operator Survey (n=29) and an Agency Survey (n=52) distributed between January 2023 and June 2023 to all known shared micromobility operators and agencies. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4h04w8m1&r=tre |
| By: | Odran Bonnet (Insee); Etienne Fize (Institut des Politiques Publiques, Paris School of Economics); Tristan Loisel (Insee, Crest); Lionel Wilner (Insee, Crest) |
| Abstract: | This article exploits both the crude oil price surge consecutive to the invasion of Ukraine and 2022 fuel excise tax rebates in France as quasi-natural experiments to infer the price sensitivity of fuel demand. Based on granular individual bank account data at the transaction level, we properly disentangle anticipation effects from price effects, and estimate an average price elasticity of -0.31. It varies little with respect to income and location but substantially decreases, in absolute, with respect to fuel spending and is higher for retirees. We evaluate financial and distributional effects of the actual tax policy as well as its impact on CO2 emissions based on counterfactual simulations. We empirically demonstrate that resorting to transfers, be they targeted or not, achieves only imperfect compensation against fuel inflation. However, we show that a policy maker subject to a tight budget constraint and seeking to alleviate excessive losses, relative to income, prefers means-tested transfers to rebates. |
| Keywords: | Commodity taxation; Excise tax; Tax-and-transfer schemes; Fuel price elasticity; Anticipatory behavior; Transaction-level data. |
| JEL: | C18 C51 D12 H23 H31 L71 Q31 Q35 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2024-05&r=tre |
| By: | Divyakant Tahlyan; Hani Mahmassani; Amanda Stathopoulos; Maher Said; Susan Shaheen; Joan Walker; Breton Johnson |
| Abstract: | We present an employer-side perspective on remote work through the pandemic using data from top executives of 129 employers in North America. Our analysis suggests that at least some of the pandemic-accelerated changes to the work location landscape will likely stick; with some form of hybrid work being the norm. However, the patterns will vary by department (HR/legal/sales/IT, etc.) and by sector of operations. Top three concerns among employers include: supervision and mentoring, reduction in innovation, and creativity; and the top three benefits include their ability to retain / recruit talent, positive impact on public image and their ability to compete. An Ordered Probit model of the expected April 2024 work location strategy revealed that those in transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors, those with a fully in-person approach to work pre-COVID, and those with a negative outlook towards the impact of remote work are likely to be more in-person-centered, while those with fully remote work approach in April 2020 are likely to be less in-person-centered. Lastly, we present data on resumption of business travel, in-person client interactions and changes in office space reconfigurations that employers have made since the beginning of the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.18459&r=tre |
| By: | Kettlewell, Nathan (University of Technology, Sydney); Walker, Matthew J. (Newcastle University); Yoo, Hong Il (Loughborough University) |
| Abstract: | Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) often present concise choice scenarios that may appear incomplete to respondents. To allow respondents to express uncertainty arising from this incompleteness, DCEs may ask them to state probabilities with which they expect to make specific choices. The workhorse method for analyzing the elicited probabilities involves semi-parametric estimation of population average preferences. Despite flexible distributional assumptions, this method presents challenges in estimating unobserved preference heterogeneity, a key element in non-market valuation studies. We introduce a fractional response model based on a mixture of beta distributions. The model enables researchers to uncover preference heterogeneity under comparable parametric assumptions as adopted in conventional choice analysis, and can accommodate multiplicative forms of heterogeneity that make the semi-parametric method inconsistent. Using a DCE on alternative fuel vehicles, we illustrate the complementary roles of the parametric and semi-parametric approaches. We also undertake a separate analysis in which respondents are randomized to either a DCE employing a conventional choice elicitation format or a parallel DCE employing the probability elicitation format. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment, probability elicitation, mixed logit, beta regression; willingness to pay |
| JEL: | C35 D12 D84 Q42 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16821&r=tre |