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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Tong Zhang, Paul J. Burke, and Qi Wang |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to emerge as the main means of zero-emission road transport. China has used a variety of policy approaches to encourage EV adoption, including vehicle purchase subsidies. This study uses a three-dimensional dataset to estimate the effect of purchase subsidies for domestic EVs on adoption in 316 cities in China over January 2016–December 2019. An instrumental variable approach that utilizes the timing of the cancellation of local subsidies by the central government is pursued. The findings suggest that purchase subsidies for domestic EVs have led to a sizeable increase in uptake, but have discouraged uptake of imported EVs. Higher consumer awareness of the subsidies is associated with a larger proportional effect on uptake of domestically-produced vehicles. We estimate that increases in the per-vehicle subsidy rate have on average reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at a marginal subsidy cost of about 4, 453 CNY (US$712) per tonne, which is high. However, other benefits, including long-run benefits from the emergence of a new clean technology sector, may be substantial. |
| JEL: | H23 H31 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2024-1&r=tre |
| By: | Laura Grigolon; Eunseong Park; Kevin Remmy |
| Abstract: | We use micro-level data on fuel consumption, mileage, and travel mode to study plug-in hybrid drivers' response to fuel prices. When fuel prices rise, plug-in hybrids reduce fuel consumption more than gasoline and diesel cars. They do not reduce their mileage but increase electric recharging, without evidence of habit formation. As the share of kilometers driven in electric mode by plug-in hybrids is only half the official test cycle value, fuel prices are effective in improving the environmental performance of these vehicles. Considering the choice of fueling versus recharging, we estimate that drivers value time at €15 to €41/hour. |
| Keywords: | plug-in-hybrids, fuel prices, fuel elasticities, value of time, fuel consumption, driving habit formation |
| JEL: | D12 L91 Q31 Q41 L71 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_494&r=tre |
| By: | Kevin Bl\"attler; Hannes Wallimann; Widar von Arx |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the impact of a fare-free public transport policy for overnight guests on travel mode choice to a Swiss tourism destination. The policy directly targets domestic transport to and from a destination, the substantial contributor to the CO2 emissions of overnight trips. Based on a survey sample, we identify the effect with the help of the random element that the information on the offer from a hotelier to the guest varies in day-to-day business. We estimate a shift from private cars to public transport due to the policy of, on average, 16.9 and 11.6 percentage points, depending on the application of propensity score matching and causal forest. This knowledge is relevant for policy-makers to design future offers that include more sustainable travels to a destination. Overall, our paper exemplifies how such an effect of comparable natural experiments in the travel and tourism industry can be properly identified with a causal framework and underlying assumptions. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.14945&r=tre |
| By: | Krekel, Christian; MacKerron, George |
| Abstract: | Following early economist Francis Y. Edgeworth's proposal to measure people's hedonic experiences as they go about their daily lives, we use a smartphone app that over eight years randomly asked a panel of 30, 936 UK residents (N = 2, 235, 733) about their momentary feelings and activities to estimate the value of time (VOT), a key input into cost-benefit analyses. Exploiting the randomised timing of surveys for identification, we arrive at a VOT of #12.2 ($15.3) per hour of waiting, #8.4 ($10.5) per hour of commuting, and #17.2 ($21.5) per hour of waiting during commuting (e.g. due to congestion). This resembles estimates from studies using revealed preferences, suggesting that using hedonic experiences leads to similar results as observed behaviour. Our unique data and method also allow us to estimate the VOT for 40 other daily activities as well as their interactions. We are the first to value time (or indeed anything) using hedonic experiences in real-time, which has the potential to value other intangibles too. |
| Keywords: | value of time; time savings; experience-sampling; experiential valuation; cost-benefit analysis; waiting; commuting; ESRC: PTA-031-2006-00280) |
| JEL: | R4 D61 I31 |
| Date: | 2023–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121308&r=tre |
| By: | Haapamäki, Taina; Riukula, Krista; Väänänen, Touko |
| Abstract: | Abstract In economics, the regional densification of economic activity is referred to as agglomeration. The effects of agglomeration are often referred to when discussing the wider economic benefits of transportation infrastructure projects. The magnitude of these effects has not been extensively studied in Finland. In this brief, we present results from a study that examines the effect of agglomeration on productivity in the Helsinki region. Agglomeration, defined as job-to-job accessibility, was found to have a positive effect on employees’ wages. However, the results at the establishment-level are less precise and statistically insignificant. According to the results, increased accessibility increases other operating expenses such as rents, potentially explaining the lack of statistically significant effects on establishment-level productivity. The results indicate that agglomeration benefits are predominantly intraregional, with interregional accessibility having little impact on these benefits. Consequently, the ratio between agglomeration benefits and direct benefits of transportation infrastructure projects varies depending on the project. Taxes and similar payments on increased wages due to accessibility increases could be included as a separate item in cost-benefit analysis. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration, Productivity, Transport project, Cost-benefit analysis, Accessibility, Wider economic impacts |
| JEL: | R12 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:132&r=tre |
| By: | Alessandro V. M. Oliveira; Thiago Caliari; Rodolfo R. Narcizo |
| Abstract: | The modernization of an airline's fleet can reduce its operating costs, improve the perceived quality of service offered to passengers, and mitigate emissions. The present paper investigates the market incentives that airlines have to adopt technological innovation from manufacturers by acquiring new generation aircraft. We develop an econometric model of fleet modernization in the Brazilian commercial aviation over two decades. We examine the hypothesis of an inverted-U relationship between market concentration and fleet modernization and find evidence that both the extremes of competition and concentration may inhibit innovation adoption by carriers. We find limited evidence associating either hubbing activity or low-cost carriers with the more intense introduction of new types of aircraft models and variants in the industry. Finally, our results suggest that energy cost rises may provoke boosts in fleet modernization in the long term, with carriers possibly targeting more eco-efficient operations up to two years after an upsurge in fuel price. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.06876&r=tre |
| By: | Alberini, Anna; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | With more than 3 million new passenger cars sold every year, Germany's automobile industry is a major player on the European car market, and one seen as an important arena for achieving climate protection targets. Using high-resolution car registration data from each state in Germany between January 2015 to March 2020, we estimate reduced-form panel data models to identify the effects of three flagship policies aimed at reducing transport emissions from cars: diesel bans, rebates for battery vehicles, and subsidies for charging station projects. The models show that the policies have significant effects on the sales of specific powertrains. But policy simulations that incorporate estimates of lifecycle CO2-emissions reveal that they have only negligible effects on emission reductions and are costly. Rebates on the purchase of a battery-electric or plug-in hybrids result in a cost per ton of reduced CO2-emissions of over €1000. Even the most optimistic scenarios result in a cost per ton of CO2-reduced by subsidies for the construction of charging stations of at least €400. These figures are very large when compared with the cost of abatement implicit in the price of allowances on the European Emissions Trading System, with important implications on cross-sectoral trading, such as that envisioned in the European Union's Fit-for-55 program. |
| Abstract: | Mit mehr als 3 Millionen verkauften Neuwagen pro Jahr ist die deutsche Automobilindustrie ein wichtiger Akteur auf dem europäischen Automobilmarkt und gilt als wichtiger Schauplatz für die Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele. Unter Verwendung von detaillierten Kfz-Zulassungsdaten aus allen deutschen Bundesländern für den Zeitraum von Januar 2015 bis März 2020 schätzen wir reduzierte Paneldatenmodelle, um die Auswirkungen dreier politischer Maßnahmen zu ermitteln, die auf die Reduzierung der verkehrsbedingten Emissionen von Pkw abzielen: Dieselfahrverbote, Rabatte für Batteriefahrzeuge und Subventionen für Ladestationen. Die Modelle zeigen, dass diese Maßnahmen erhebliche Auswirkungen auf den Absatz bestimmter Antriebsarten haben. Simulationen, die Schätzungen der CO2-Emissionen über den gesamten Lebenszyklus einbeziehen, zeigen jedoch, dass diese Maßnahmen nur vernachlässigbare Auswirkungen auf die Emissionsreduzierung haben und kostspielig sind. Rabatte für den Kauf eines batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugs oder eines Plug-in-Hybridfahrzeugs führen zu Kosten pro Tonne reduzierter CO2-Emissionen von über 1000 €. Selbst die optimistischsten Szenarien führen zu Kosten pro Tonne CO2, die durch Subventionen für den Bau von Ladestationen reduziert werden, von mindestens 400 €. Diese Zahlen sind sehr hoch, wenn man sie mit den Vermeidungskosten vergleicht, die im Preis der Zertifikate im Europäischen Emissionshandelssystem enthalten sind, was erhebliche Auswirkungen auf den sektorübergreifenden Handel hat, wie er im Fit-for-55-Programm der Europäischen Union vorgesehen ist. |
| Keywords: | New car sales, CO2-emissions, German Bundesländer, policy simulation |
| JEL: | H23 Q48 Q54 R41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:281189&r=tre |
| By: | Yang Xia (Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School [Shenzhen] - THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing], THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]); Wenjia Zeng (Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School [Shenzhen] - THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing], THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]); Xinjie Xing (University of Liverpool); Yuanzhu Zhan (Birmingham Business School - University of Birmingham [Birmingham]); Kim Hua Tan (Nottingham University Business School [Nottingham]); Ajay Kumar (EM - emlyon business school) |
| Abstract: | Alongside the rise of ‘last-mile' delivery in contemporary urban logistics, drones have demonstrate commercial potential, given their outstanding triple-bottom-line performance. However, as a lithium-ion battery-powered device, drones' social and environmental merits can be overturned by battery recycling and disposal. To maintain economic performance, yet minimise environmental negatives, fleet sharing is widely applied in the transportation field, with the aim of creating synergies within industry and increasing overall fleet use. However, if a sharing platform's transparency is doubted, the sharing ability of the platform will be discounted. Known for its transparent and secure merits, blockchain technology provides new opportunities to improve existing sharing solutions. In particular, the decentralised structure and data encryption algorithm offered by blockchain allow every participant equal access to shared resources without undermining security issues. Therefore, this study explores the implementation of a blockchain-enabled fleet sharing solution to optimise drone operations, with consideration of battery wear and disposal effects. Unlike classical vehicle routing with fleet sharing problems, this research is more challenging, with multiple objectives (i.e., shortest path and fewest charging times), and considers different levels of sharing abilities. In this study, we propose a mixed-integer programming model to formulate the intended problem and solve the problem with a tailored branch-and-price algorithm. Through extensive experiments, the computational performance of our proposed solution is first articulated, and then the effectiveness of using blockchain to improve overall optimisation is reflected, and a series of critical influential factors with managerial significance are demonstrated. |
| Keywords: | Drone-assisted delivery, Sustainable supply chain management, blockchain, Mixed-integer programming model |
| Date: | 2023–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04381308&r=tre |
| By: | Aditya Ramji; Daniel Sperling; Lewis Fulton |
| Abstract: | Strong policies with sustainable incentives are needed to accelerate the EV transition. This paper assesses various feebate designs assessing recent policy evolution in five European countries. While there are key design elements that should be considered, there is no optimal feebate design. Different policy objectives could be served by feebates influencing its design and effectiveness. Using feebates to transition to EVs has emerged a key objective. With the financial sustainability of EV incentive programs being questioned, a self financing market mechanism could be the need of the hour solution. Irrespective of the policy goals, a feebate will impact both the supply side, i.e., the automotive industry and the consumer side. Globally, feebates can be used to effect technology leapfrogging while navigating the political economy of clean transportation policy in different country contexts. This paper highlights thirteen design elements of an effective feebate policy that can serve as a foundation for policymakers. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.15069&r=tre |
| By: | Jiayang Li; Qianni Wang; Liyang Feng; Jun Xie; Yu Marco Nie |
| Abstract: | The lack of a unique user equilibrium (UE) route flow in traffic assignment has posed a significant challenge to many transportation applications. The maximum-entropy principle, which advocates for the consistent selection of the most likely solution as a representative, is often used to address the challenge. Built on a recently proposed day-to-day (DTD) discrete-time dynamical model called cumulative logit (CULO), this study provides a new behavioral underpinning for the maximum-entropy UE (MEUE) route flow. It has been proven that CULO can reach a UE state without presuming travelers are perfectly rational. Here, we further establish that CULO always converges to the MEUE route flow if (i) travelers have zero prior information about routes and thus are forced to give all routes an equal choice probability, or (ii) all travelers gather information from the same source such that the so-called general proportionality condition is satisfied. Thus, CULO may be used as a practical solution algorithm for the MEUE problem. To put this idea into practice, we propose to eliminate the route enumeration requirement of the original CULO model through an iterative route discovery scheme. We also examine the discrete-time versions of four popular continuous-time dynamical models and compare them to CULO. The analysis shows that the replicator dynamic is the only one that has the potential to reach the MEUE solution with some regularity. The analytical results are confirmed through numerical experiments. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.08013&r=tre |
| By: | Daouda Bamba (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | In 2017, Côte d'Ivoire imposed restrictions on the imports of used vehicles into its territory, one of which aims is environmental protection. This paper focuses on this policy and investigates its impacts on both (i) vehicle smuggling and (ii) environmental protection in the country. As finding a credible control for Côte d'Ivoire in the aim of the evaluation is thus challenging, the Augmented Synthetic Control Method is implemented to construct a valid counterfactual for the country's path without the law, with WAEMU member countries as control states. This method is used with an outcome model in a Panel Fixed Effects simulation and covariates configuration, to assess the Average Treatment effect on the Treated (ATT) on the outcome of interest after the passage of the 2017 law. The use of a panel structure allows for controlling time-invariant omitted variables correlated with the law adoption. The assessment shows that the policy has led to an increase of almost 39% in the per capita vehicle smuggling in the country. Furthermore, the policy has induced a reduction in the per capita CO2 emissions in the country with an average treatment effect indicating a decrease of -0.051 metric tons per inhabitant. These effects do not vanish over time and results remain robust to different robustness and falsification placebo tests. |
| Keywords: | Synthetic Control Method, Policy evaluation, Smuggling, Environment |
| Date: | 2023–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-04391362&r=tre |