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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Chakraborty, Debapriya; Bunch , David S.; Brownstone, David |
| Abstract: | The increasing diversity of vehicle type holdings and growing demand for BEVs and PHEVs have serious policy implications for travel demand and air pollution. Consequently, it is important to accurately predict or estimate the preference for vehicle holdings of households as well as the vehicle miles traveled by vehicle body- and fuel-type to project future VMT changes and mobile source emission levels. Leveraging the 2019 California Vehicle Survey data, this report presents the application of a utility-based model for multiple discreteness that combines multiple vehicle types with usage in an integrated model, specifically the MDCEV model. The model results suggest the important effects of household demographics, residence location, and built environment factors on vehicle body type and powertrain choice and usage. Further the predictions associated with changes inbuilt environment factors like population density can inform the design of land-use and transportation policies to influence household vehicle holdings and usage that can in turn impact travel demand and air quality issues in California. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle Choice, Vehicle Miles Traveled, Joint Discrete Choice Model |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3jj3v7pw&r=tre |
| By: | Erica Angers; Aleksandr Arsenev (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This report estimates the CO2 emissions of freight transport on a hypothetical high-speed rail (HSR) line along the northern route, from Lyon to Warsaw, of a ‘European Silk Road’ (ESR). Using a methodology consisting of predictions regarding the freight-carrying capacity of the future HSR, and the commodity-level switchover, our results indicate that a best-case scenario, at a project lifecycle of 60 years, in which all trains run with 257 tonnes of load, provides for a reduction of 176.2 Mt of net CO2 emissions compared with current levels. These lifespan savings are comparable to a reduction of net emissions by close to 24% of the overall EU transport sector emissions (excluding air transport) of one year (as measured by the net emissions in 2018). The net negative emissions in the optimistic full-capacity scenario will compensate for the construction costs in 13 years. Thus, the potential for emission reduction along the northern route of the ESR is quite substantial, given that this is just one line, with limited capacity. This hints at the importance that bold missions, such as the construction of a pan-European HSR network, could have for the definition of a European Green Industrial Policy that is capable of supporting the fulfilment of the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, ecological efficiency, European Silk Road, European Union, green growth, green transition, high-speed rail (HSR), infrastructure, intermodal competition, life-cycle analysis (LCA), logistics, modal shift, train networks, transportation |
| JEL: | H54 L91 L92 Q42 Q50 Q51 Q55 Q56 Q58 R40 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:472&r=tre |
| By: | Robert W. Hahn; Robert D. Metcalfe; Eddy Tam |
| Abstract: | We develop novel estimates of peak and off-peak price elasticities for urban mass transit demand in San Francisco using a large natural experiment with 3.6 million trip sessions and a natural field experiment that both have exogenous price subsidies. We then estimate the welfare impacts for these price subsidies using a sufficient statistics approach. Our analysis suggests that off-peak subsidies can increase welfare, but the positive effects are reduced when consumers take the decisions of others into account compared to when they do not. We also find a large variation in the welfare impacts of shifting travel to different periods, which is explained by differences in demand and congestion characteristics. Finally, we show that the targeting of subsidies can increase welfare, but need not do so if the regulator does not have accurate information on demand. |
| JEL: | H20 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31629&r=tre |
| By: | Zachary Liscow; Will Nober; Cailin Slattery |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure costs in the United States are high and rising. The procurement process is one potential cost driver. In this paper we conduct a survey of procurement practices across the 50 states. We survey both employees at each state department of transportation (DOT) and the road builders that win contracts to build and maintain roads. With this survey we are able to create a new dataset of procurement rules and practices across the U.S. and understand what actors on the ground think drive costs. We then assemble a new dataset of project-level infrastructure costs. We correlate the survey practices with our new, detailed data on costs. We find that two important inputs in the procurement process appear to particularly drive costs: (1) the capacity of the DOT procuring the project and (2) the lack of competition in the market for government construction contracts. |
| JEL: | D44 H54 H57 H83 K40 L38 L91 O18 R42 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31705&r=tre |
| By: | Blanco, Magdalena; Cabrera, José María; Carozzi, Felipe; Cid, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of mandatory motorcycle helmet use laws on the severity and volume of road accidents in Uruguay by exploiting a change in the enforcement of the traffic law. Using a differences-in-differences design based on an unexpected change in policy, we report a sharp increase in helmet use and a 5 percentage point reduction in the incidence of serious or fatal motorcyclist accidents from a baseline of 11%. The benefits of helmet use are disproportionately borne by groups more likely to experience serious injuries such as males or young drivers. We find no evidence of other responses in terms of either the volume or type of accidents, suggesting motorcyclists' behaviour did not respond to differences in risk. We show that additional costs of enforcement for the relevant government agencies were negligible and estimate the health benefits of the policy. |
| Keywords: | law enforcement; safety and accidents; helmet use |
| JEL: | I12 I18 R41 H89 |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114440&r=tre |
| By: | Xiyuan Ren; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | Estimating agent-specific taste heterogeneity with a large information and communication technology (ICT) dataset requires both model flexibility and computational efficiency. We propose a group-level agent-based mixed (GLAM) logit approach that is estimated with inverse optimization (IO) and group-level market share. The model is theoretically consistent with the RUM model framework, while the estimation method is a nonparametric approach that fits to market-level datasets, which overcomes the limitations of existing approaches. A case study of New York statewide travel mode choice is conducted with a synthetic population dataset provided by Replica Inc., which contains mode choices of 19.53 million residents on two typical weekdays, one in Fall 2019 and another in Fall 2021. Individual mode choices are grouped into market-level market shares per census block-group OD pair and four population segments, resulting in 120, 740 group-level agents. We calibrate the GLAM logit model with the 2019 dataset and compare to several benchmark models: mixed logit (MXL), conditional mixed logit (CMXL), and individual parameter logit (IPL). The results show that empirical taste distribution estimated by GLAM logit can be either unimodal or multimodal, which is infeasible for MXL/CMXL and hard to fulfill in IPL. The GLAM logit model outperforms benchmark models on the 2021 dataset, improving the overall accuracy from 82.35% to 89.04% and improving the pseudo R-square from 0.4165 to 0.5788. Moreover, the value-of-time (VOT) and mode preferences retrieved from GLAM logit aligns with our empirical knowledge (e.g., VOT of NotLowIncome population in NYC is $28.05/hour; public transit and walking is preferred in NYC). The agent-specific taste parameters are essential for the policymaking of statewide transportation projects. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2309.13159&r=tre |
| By: | Peterson, Brian |
| Abstract: | This document provides a set of recommendations for modernization of the Traffic Management Data Dictionary (TMDD) (1), currently at version 3.1. These recommendations are based upon the following: Connected Corridors project experience; three previous technical memorandums provided under this project discussing the current and future state of transportation, the state of the supporting technology for information exchange, and a review of the TMDD standard; a gap analysis based on the three technical memorandums delivered as part of this project. The intention of this document is to inform the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) committee responsible for TMDD, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), and users of the standard of potential improvements in the standard that should improve its ability to serve current and future transportation and traffic management needs |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2023–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8vr7w07h&r=tre |
| By: | Stienen, Valentijn (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); den Hertog, Dick (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Wagenaar, Joris (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Zegher, J.F. |
| Keywords: | trafic speed; Road attribute prediction; (Convolutional) neural network; Satellite imagery; Weather information |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:de5c3c6d-44ee-45cf-b207-c748ae918bd5&r=tre |
| By: | Richard Baldwin; Toshihiro Okubo |
| Abstract: | Digital technology is reshaping workplaces by enabling spatial separation of offices, known as telework, or remote intelligence (RI), and by facilitating automation of service sector tasks via artificial intelligence (AI). This paper is a first attempt to empirically investigate whether AI and RI are complements or substitutes in the service sector. It uses a worker-level panel of surveys collected from around 10, 000 workers from pre-COVID-19 pandemic to late 2022, we find preliminary evidence that suggests that AI and RI are complements rather than substitutes. The evidence comes first from the positive correlation of investments in AI-promoting and RI-promoting software at the firm and worker level, and second from the positive correlation of workers' expectations regarding telework and software automation. The evidence is far from definitive but suggests that the complement-substitution question is a fruitful line for future research. |
| JEL: | F6 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31627&r=tre |
| By: | Ujjayant Chakravorty; Xiangzheng Deng; Yazhen Gong; Martino Pelli; Qian Zhang |
| Abstract: | There is a large literature on the role infrastructure plays in economic development, but few papers document the causal effect of infrastructure on the sustainability of natural resources. We examine the effect of the arrival of two new national highways on ground water levels in a small agricultural county in the North China Plain - a region that produces most of the nation’s food grains. We first develop a conceptual framework to show that farmers located closer to the highways devote more acreage to crops that are water intensive. We then use a unique GIS-referenced dataset of all the 12, 160 tube wells in this county to show that highway construction accelerates the drilling of new wells in farms closer to the highway. In addition, there is greater depletion of the groundwater in wells near the two highways relative to wells located farther away. Our estimated depletion rates near the two roads are at least 5 times higher relative to mean depletion rates in the North China Plain. We show suggestive evidence that depletion is caused by a switch from subsistence to commercial cropping, and intensification of farming practices adjacent to the highway. These results suggest that the environmental cost of new infrastructure building may be significant and needs to be incorporated in benefit-cost analysis. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, roads, North China Plain, water resources, sustainability |
| JEL: | O13 O18 Q25 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10639&r=tre |