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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Burra, Lavan T., Sommer, Stephan; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | To accelerate the electrification of the transport sector, many countries subsidize both the construction of public charging infrastructure and the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs). Possible complementarities between these measures raise the question of their optimal calibration. Drawing on county-level panel data from Germany spanning 2014–2021, this paper explores this question with an econometric model of EV uptake. Employing fixed effects- and instrumental variable estimators, we find that charging infrastructure has a positive and significant effect on the uptake, one whose magnitude increases with the subsidy level for car purchases. Simulations using the model estimates show how the predicted number of EVs for a given charging capacity level increase with higher consumer subsidies, allowing for a back-of-the-envelop calculation of the optimal expenditure of the two measures. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, charging capacity, consumer subsidy, calibration |
| JEL: | H23 L91 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:1014&r=tre |
| By: | Dokka, Trivikram; SenGupta, Sonali; Bhardwaj, Aaditya |
| Abstract: | Sustainable uptake of electric vehicles will require efficient provision of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure for which it is essential to understand plug-in behaviors of electric vehicle users. Using plug-in data from 19 public charging stations and amenities in Durham, clustering, coupled with quantile regression analysis was used. Instead of focusing on the conditional average, we explain the effects of various factors, including availability of other amenities, on the entire distribution of the plug-in duration. Results show that both demand for charging and other amenities surrounding the charging station play an important role. More specifically, these effects are different at different quantiles of plug-in distribution. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202209&r=tre |
| By: | Rafee Musabbir, Sarder; Zhang, Michael PhD |
| Abstract: | This project estimates the safety and mobility impact of changing speed limits on California highways. The safety impact is estimated using statistical models to predict the change in the frequency of all crashes and fatal-or-severe crashes that would result by varying the design speed (85th percentile speed). Statewide crash and traffic data (from the Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System, the Highway Safety Information System, and the Performance Measurement System) were combined to develop a balanced and sampled dataset for the statistical models. Three different increases in differential speed limits (DSLs; whereby trucks and cars have different speed limits) lead to increases in the frequency of all crashes, including fatal and severe crashes, for all of the classified segments (urban, rural, and different design speed segments). The operational condition (speed, travel time, delay) is tested using seven simulation segments with urban-rural classification. Four different DSL scenarios and four uniform speed limit (USL) scenarios are tested for each of the simulation segments. The results show a decrease of travel time but an increase of fuel consumption as the speed limits get higher. The safety cost of crashes and operational costs were also estimated based on the simulation models. In general, as the speed limits are increased, the safety costs increase with the predicted increases in crashes, particularly severe and fatal crashes. The operational costs, on the other hand, generally decrease as the speed limits are increased. However, the amount of operational cost decreases are subject to greater uncertainty than the safety cost estimates are, due to uncertainties in sampling and demand estimation and in negligence of construction costs of roadway and signage changes to accommodate the new speed limits. From the economic perspective in this study, raising speed limits on rural California highways could reduce monetary costs, as savings in operational costs would exceed losses from more crashes. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Traffic safety, variable speed limits, crash data, mathematical models, operating costs, economic analysis |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7r94h26c&r=tre |
| By: | Circella, Giovanni; Iogansen, Xiatian; Makino, Keita; Compostella, Junia; Young, Mischa; Malik, Jai K |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic has transformed people’s activity-travel patterns, using datasets collected through three waves of surveys in spring 2020, fall 2020, and summer 2021. With this dataset, it was possible to investigate evolving behavioral choices and preferences among respondents at different timepoints: fall 2019 (recollection of the past), spring 2020, fall 2020, summer 2021, and summer 2022 (future expectations). The study highlighted a large shift among California workers from physical commuting to working remotely in 2020, which was followed by a transition towards hybrid work by summer 2021. The shift to remote work and hybrid work varied considerably across population subgroups, and was most popular among higher-income, better-educated individuals, and urban residents. In terms of household vehicle ownership change, those tech-savvy and variety-seeking individuals were more likely to increase or replace household vehicles, while those who are pro-environment and pro-active are less likely to do so. COVID health concerns show concurrent effects of encouraging the adoption of a more pro-active lifestyle during the pandemic, but also leading to an increased desire to own vehicles in the future. Regarding shopping patterns, the number of respondents who shop online at least once per week increased nearly five-fold between fall 2019 and spring 2020, but such magnitude somewhat diminished by fall 2020. In general, the pandemic has generated a mix of short-lived temporary changes and potential longer-term impacts. The study provides various strategies to help increase transportation and social equity among various population groups as the communities recover from the pandemic. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, COVID-19 pandemic, travel behavior, remote work, hybrid work, vehicle ownership, shopping behavior, survey method, longitudinal data, cross-sectional data |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0xm768km&r=tre |
| By: | Gernot Sieg (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | Gössling et al. (2023) claim to calculate the welfare effect of a 130 kph speed limit in Germany. By ignoring tax revenues from gasoline and diesel, they overestimate the welfare gain by about 378 million Euros. A speed limit raises travel times. Gössling et al. (2023) calculate travel time increases with a simplistic approach that underestimates the costs with a magnitude of their complete (tax adjusted) welfare effect. A speed limit induces some traffic to switch mode or not to travel at all. The reduced costs of less car travel are decisive for their calculation, but the losses of consumer rent associated with reduced travel are ignored. Gössling et al. (2023) do not calculate a value that is related to the welfare changes of a highway speed limit of 130 kph for Germany. |
| Keywords: | Highways, Speed limit, CBA |
| JEL: | L92 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:38&r=tre |
| By: | Dokka, Trivikram; Bruno, Jorge; SenGupta, Sonali; Anwar, Sakib |
| Abstract: | We study equilibria in an Electric Vehicle (EV) charging game, a cost minimization game inherent to decentralized charging control strategy for EV power demand management. In our model, each user optimizes its total cost which is sum of direct power cost and the indirect dissatisfaction cost. We show that, taking player specific price independent dissatisfaction cost into account, contrary to popular belief, herding only happens at lower EV uptake. Moreover, this is true for both linear and logistic dissatisfaction functions. We study the question of existence of price profiles to induce a desired equilibrium. We define two types of equilibria, distributed and non-distributed equilibria, and show that under logistic dissatisfaction, only non-distributed equilibria are possible by feasibly setting prices. In linear case, both type of equilibria are possible but price discrimination is necessary to induce distributed equilibria. Finally, we show that in the case of symmetric EV users, mediation cannot improve upon Nash equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Electric Vehicles, Pricing, Nash equilibrium, Coarse correlated equilibrium, Mediation, Herding, Dissatisfaction cost |
| JEL: | C61 C72 D4 D11 D82 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202210&r=tre |
| By: | Georgios Tsiachtsiras (AQR-IREA University of Barcelona and University of Bath); Deyun Yin (School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology); Ernest Miguelez (Univ. Bordeaux and AQR-IREA University of Barcelona); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of the High Speed Rail (HSR) network expansion on local innovation in China during the period 2008-2016. Using exogenous variation arising from a novel instrument - courier’s stations during the Ming dynasty, we find solid evidence that the opening of a HSR station increases cities’ innovation activity. We also explore the role of inter-city technology diffusion as being behind the surge of local innovation. To do it, we compute least-cost paths between city-pairs, over time, based on the opening and speed of each HSR line, and obtain that an increase in a city’s connectivity to other cities specialized in a specific technological field, through the HSR network, increases the probability for the city to specialize in that same technological field. We interpret it as evidence of knowledge diffusion. |
| Keywords: | High speed rail, Innovation, Technology Diffusion, Patents, Specialization. JEL classification: R40, O18, O30, O33. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202210&r=tre |
| By: | Gonzalez, Felipe; Straub, Stéphane; Miquel-Florensa, Josepa; Prem, Mounu |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure is associated with economic development, but it can also be used for social control and to benefit the governing elite. We explore the connection between the construction of road networks, state-led repression, and land allocations in the longest dictatorship in South America: Alfredo Stroessner military regime in Paraguay. Using novel panel data from the truth and reconciliation commission, we show that proximity to roads facilitated state-led repression and the illegal allocation of agricultural plots to dictatorship allies. These results suggest that infrastructure projects can also hinder economic development. |
| Keywords: | roads, repression, land allocations, dictatorship, Paraguay, Alfredo Stroessner. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:128127&r=tre |
| By: | Donni Fajar Anugrah (Bank Indonesia); Arnita Rishanty (Bank Indonesia); Benny Tjahjono (Coventry University); Fathia Nisa (Bank Indonesia); Dian Rahmawati (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has been suggested as a possible way to reduce excessive carbon emissions and conquering environmental major issues in Indonesia. Despite the advantages of being eco-friendly and providing environmental benefits, there are several barriers and reasons for why the adoption of EVs is still considerably limited in Indonesia. The transition process from existing ICE vehicle to EVs is often not easy to understand, as it involves complex technical, social, and economic facets. Yet, a further investigation on how EV transitions in Indonesia needs to be done. A multidimensional and multi-actor analysis of the EV landscape can help us better understand the dynamics of transition to EVs. In this paper, a multilevel perspective (MLP) framework is used to examine the current state of EV adoption in Indonesia and to interpret the prospects of a possible transition path to EVs. The study shows that a potential transition to EVs in Indonesia presents many socio-technical challenges to overcome including current policies, institutions, technological infrastructure, and social limitations. The insights from this review can be used for settings where policies and institutions are not developed enough to achieve a transition to EVs. |
| Keywords: | Electric Vehicle, Transition Path, Multi-Level Perspective, Indonesia |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp072022&r=tre |
| By: | Sharat Ganapati; Woan Foong Wong |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the evolution of global transportation usage over the past half century and its implications for supply chains. Transportation usage per unit of real output has more than doubled as costs decreased by a third. Participation of emerging economies in world trade and longer-distance trade between countries contribute to this usage increase, thereby encouraging longer supply chains. We discuss technological advances over this period, and their interactions with endogenous responses from transportation costs and supply chain linkages. Supply chains involving more countries and longer distances are reflective of reliable and efficient transportation, but are also more exposed to disruptions, highlighting the importance of considering the interconnectedness of transportation and supply chains in policymaking and future work. |
| JEL: | F01 F15 R4 R40 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10398&r=tre |
| By: | Hoogland, Kelly; Hardman, Scott; Chakraborty, Debapriya; Bunch, David |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of approximately 7, 000 California PEV drivers recruited from California Clean Vehicle Rebate Program applicants, two logistic regression models are specified to analyze responses by PEV lessees and purchasers to the question of what theywould do in the absence of the federal tax credit. Possible responses include: Purchase/lease the same PEV, switch to a different PEV, switch to a conventional or hybrid (non-plug in) vehicle, or do not acquire a vehicle at all. Several key insights are found;higher discounts from the tax credit increase the probability of lessees indicating they would not lease a PEV at all. For purchasers, in addition to not purchasing any vehicle at all, the probability of purchasing a conventional vehicle, or another PEV also increase. These findings could have implications for California’s ability to reach its ZEV milestones and are important to consider due to recent changes to the US federal tax credit. Our findings indicate that many PEV adopters would likely not adopttheir PEV without the tax credit, potentially more so for leased compared to purchased vehicles. There are also unique results forlessees related to the impact of home ownership; renters are more likely than homeowners to lease a conventional vehicle than a PEV in the absence of the tax credit. This finding contributes to the literature which finds homeowners to be more likely toadopt a PEV than renters, emphasizing the importance of access to at-home charging for PEV adoption. These results show how incentives may be more influential for adoption decisions in the PEV lease market is, and the factors which are associated with consumers’ PEV adoption behavior in the absence of the federal tax credit. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Choice model, Electric vehicle adoption, incentives, leasing |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt24v4s49m&r=tre |
| By: | Poulad Moradi; Joachim Arts; Josu\'e Vel\'azquez-Mart\'inez |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of using high-resolution elevation data on the selection of the most fuel-efficient (greenest) path for different trucks in various urban environments. We adapt a variant of the Comprehensive Modal Emission Model (CMEM) to show that the optimal speed and the greenest path are slope dependent (dynamic). When there are no elevation changes in a road network, the most fuel-efficient path is the shortest path with a constant (static) optimal speed throughout. However, if the network is not flat, then the shortest path is not necessarily the greenest path, and the optimal driving speed is dynamic. We prove that the greenest path converges to an asymptotic greenest path as the payload approaches infinity and that this limiting path is attained for a finite load. In a set of extensive numerical experiments, we benchmark the CO2 emissions reduction of our dynamic speed and the greenest path policies against policies that ignore elevation data. We use the geo-spatial data of 25 major cities across 6 continents, such as Los Angeles, Mexico City, Johannesburg, Athens, Ankara, and Canberra. Our results show that, on average, traversing the greenest path with a dynamic optimal speed policy can reduce the CO2 emissions by 1.19% to 10.15% depending on the city and truck type for a moderate payload. They also demonstrate that the average CO2 reduction of the optimal dynamic speed policy is between 2% to 4% for most of the cities, regardless of the truck type. We confirm that disregarding elevation data yields sub-optimal paths that are significantly less CO2 efficient than the greenest paths. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2306.01687&r=tre |
| By: | Federica Daniele (Bank of Italy); Elena Romito (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | An increase in land values is often considered the touchstone of the positive impact of the development of new public transport infrastructure on well-being in cities. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of the construction of "Metro C" – Rome's third metro line – on the housing market and on local economic activity. To overcome the potential threat posed by the non-random placement of transport infrastructure, we rely on the multiple synthetic control method approach. We detect a negative and statistically significant impact of the new infrastructure on average house prices in the treated areas located in the suburbs, reaching minus 137 EUR per square metre three years after the treatment, roughly equal to 5% of the pre-treatment level, driven by properties belonging to the higher end of the price distribution. We also find that the share of foreign-born population in the treated areas displayed a statistically significant increase post-treatment. According to the evidence available, the metro might have thus been perceived as an amenity by poorer households and as a disamenity by richer ones. Such disamenity, in turn, can either be a first-order effect of the development of the new metro line (e.g., due to noise or to diminished safety) or a second-order one, via the inflow of foreign-born population. |
| Keywords: | cities, transport infrastructure development, housing market |
| JEL: | D12 L81 L83 R2 R4 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1394_22&r=tre |
| By: | Juan Montero; Matthias Finger; Teodora Serafimova |
| Abstract: | The European Union’s Fourth Railway Package dating from 2016, introduces a number of substantive reforms with a view to revitalize the rail sector and boost its competitiveness vis-à-vis other modes of transport by completing the process of gradual market opening. Its so-called ‘market pillar’ establishes the general right for railway undertakings established in one Member State to operate all types of passenger services everywhere else in the EU, lays down rules aimed at improving impartiality in the governance of railway infrastructure and preventing discrimination, and introduces the principle of mandatory tendering for public service contracts in rail. These reforms are grounded in the premise that competition in rail passenger service markets would induce railway operators to become more responsive to customer needs, improve the quality of their services and their cost-effectiveness. Not least, competitive tendering of public service contracts would enable cost savings.The introduction of these reforms and general principles, however, takes place against the backdrop of Member States and regions retaining a certain degree of discretion in shaping public service contracts. In other words, both have the basic right to decide which type of services is to be provided under public service obligations, whether such services are to be tendered out under a single contract or divided into several contracts, and whether these contracts should be tendered simultaneously or progressively over time, for instance.In this report, we set out to identify the optimal solution(s) for tendering rail public service contracts, both in terms of contract volume and scheduling of the tenders, while suggesting possible accompanying measures to ensure an optimum outcome. |
| Keywords: | Railways, Public Service Contracts, Progressive Tendering, Fourth Railway Package, Regulation |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2022/61&r=tre |
| By: | Hudde, Ansgar |
| Abstract: | In German cities, higher levels of education increase people’s propensity to cycle. However, it remains unknown whether this effect is restricted to certain contexts, such as cities with low or medium cycling rates, or whether it is a more universal occurrence. This paper develops and tests competing hypotheses on how the effect of education on cycling might depend on the overall cycling level: (a) educational inequalities in cycling could increase proportionally with the overall cycling level or (b) such inequalities might diminish in high-cycling cities because their advanced pro-cycling mobility cultures encourage cycling among all social groups. I analyse about 150, 000 trips made by about 50, 000 residents from 143 cities in the Netherlands and Germany using multilevel regression models. Results fall in between the competing hypotheses, meaning that the effect of education is similarly large in cities with low, medium, or high overall levels of cycling. Hence, there is no automatism in the sense that higher cycling shares in general will also imply greater cycling equity. |
| Date: | 2023–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7c6d2&r=tre |
| By: | Despina Gavresi (University of Ioannina); Anastasia Litina (University of Macedonia); Georgios Tsiachtsiras (AQR-IREA University of Barcelona and University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the interplay between the extent of transportation infrastructure and various aspects of trust (interpersonal and political trust). We test our hypothesis by exploiting cross regional variation during the period 2002-2019. We focus on two measures of infrastructure, i.e., the length of railroads and railways in European regions. Interpersonal and political trust variables are derived from individual level data available in nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. We document that individuals who live in regions with extended infrastructure network manifest higher trust both in people and political institutions. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we extend our analysis to a sample of international and inter-regional immigrants. We further adopt an IV approach, where we use as an instrument the pre-existing Roman roads networks. The results from all three specifications are aligned to those of the benchmark analysis. We explore access to differential levels of trust as one of the underlying mechanisms behind our results. Relying on an expanding literature we hypothesize that the effect of infrastructure on trust operates directly via the degree of exposure to new people and ideas, as well as indirectly, via the effect of infrastructure on the structure of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Motorways, Railroads, Political trust, Interpersonal trust JEL classification: Z10, P48, R10, R40. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202208&r=tre |
| By: | Fitch-Polse, Dillon T. PhD; Chen, Chen PhD; Wong, Stephen D. PhD |
| Abstract: | Bicycles and other forms of micromobility have been anecdotally used in past disasters to help save lives and improve community recovery. However, research and practice are scarce on this resilient transportation strategy, which limits its usefulness and possible benefits. To fill this gap, our paper investigates the potential role bicycles and micromobility in facilitating (or limiting) disaster response and recovery. Given the lack of exploration on the topic, we convened an online workshop where we conducted brainstorming and focus group discussions with disaster experts from various government agencies, not-for-profit organizations, academia, and policy groups. We present a synthesis of that discussion, along with a review of the existing literature. We conclude there is strong potential for bicycles and micromobility for different disaster phases, hazard types, and groups of people. However, multiple barriers exist related to implementation and safety, suggesting a need for future research and policy in the transportation and emergency management fields and practices. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3ks9k4pr&r=tre |
| By: | Breidenbach, Philipp; Thiel, Patrick |
| Abstract: | To evaluate the causal impact of noise exposure on housing prices, we exploit a sudden and massive reduction in flight traffic that occurred with the onset of the Covid-19 measures in Germany. Comparing locations differently exposed to pre-pandemic noise with a differencein-difference approach, we detect a 2.3% increase in prices for apartments that experienced a noise reduction. Disentangling temporal dynamics, we find a peak effect in mid-2021 (up to 6%), which does not yet allow a statement on whether effects remain persistently. In contrast to most evaluations showing that the erection of a disamenity affects prices negatively, we show that lifting the burden enables neighborhoods to catch up again immediately. The immediate catch-up contradicts a stickiness of housing prices regarding (temporal) local factors. The temporal pattern shows a clear peak of the effects during the pandemic, which potentially hints at information asymmetries since buyers may not know the non-pandemic noise level during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Covid pandemic, aircraft noise, housing prices, hedonic function |
| JEL: | O18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:1020&r=tre |