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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Dai, Ziyi; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | Electric Vehicles (EVs) significantly reduce energy consumption and emissions from on-road operations and help create more sustainable transportation environment by reducing emissions from the entire well-to wheel energy cycle. Differences between hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV) users is an important element in understanding potential impacts on travel demand and vehicle adoption, the fact that these vehicles may be adopted into households that undertake very different vehicle activities and energy usage patterns has not been a primary focus in the literature. This study differentiates between HEV, PHEV, and BEV users across three factors: owner household socio-demographic attributes, household daily travel patterns, and household energy usage profiles. The analyses examine factors that appear to influence users’ preferences towards specific EV types and how the selection of different EV types potentially relates to household socio demographics and daily travel patterns. The 2019 Puget Sound Regional Council travel survey data set serves as the main analytical dataset. Influential factors identified as significant through statistical approaches are employed as variables for developing a two-phase choice model for determining potential EV-purchasing households and their choice of specific EV type. As EVs continue to capture increasing market share over time, these research findings and the resulting vehicle type choice model are expected to significantly improve future travel demand model development, allowing activity-based travel demand models to assign specific vehicles to specific households and then to individual trips in planning scenario analysis. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), data mining and statistical learning, EV purchase and use decisions, household demographics, travel patterns and household energy usage, household travel surveys |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5w91q6bc&r=tre |
| By: | Johansson, Magnus (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Vierth, Inge (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Holmgren, Kristina (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Cullinane, Kevin (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments targeting a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or shipping might affect the distribution of freight tonne-kilometers across the different modes of transport in Sweden. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, possible developments of freight tonne-kilometers until 2030 and 2040 are compared to base figures for 2017. This is done by developing a set of alternative forecast models where different assumptions and scenarios prevail and analyzing these using Sweden’s national freight transport model SAMGODS. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments – a wear and tear tax for road traffic and an ecobonus scheme to promote shipping by rail and sea – are analysed with respect to modal split in the base year of 2017 and for the forecast year 2040. The analysis involves the aggregation of calculated modal shares across each of the SAMGODS model's vehicle/ship types – i.e., six road freight vehicles, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. Given the conditions that are assumed in the forecasts, the amount of freight tonne- kilometers is calculated to increase by between 31% and 53 % between 2017 and 2040. The increase is generally largest for maritime transport, followed by road transport and smallest for rail transport. The concept developed in this paper can be useful in studying impacts of different types of technology shifts and policy packages. |
| Keywords: | Freight transport; Modal split; Transport work; Forecast models; Policy analysis |
| JEL: | O21 O33 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2023–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2023_004&r=tre |
| By: | Johansson, Magnus (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Vierth, Inge (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Holmgren, Kristina (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Cullinane, Kevin (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments which aim to achieve a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or sea affect the direct emissions to air of greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, a range of forecasts reflecting different assumptions are applied using the Swedish national freight transport model (SAMGODS) to derive a range of possible future developments of emissions levels up to 2030 and 2040. This has involved determining emission factors per tonne-km for each of the SAMGODS model's six road freight vehicle types, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. The model outcomes are then compared to those of the base year of 2017. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments are analyzed with respect to their potential impact on emissions to air. The effects of these two policy instruments are evaluated for the base-year of 2017 and for the 2030 and 2040 forecasts. The paper also analyzes whether the Swedish climate objective for domestic transport in 2030 can be expected to be fulfilled given different forecasts and policy instruments. Within the context of a predicted large increase in total freight tonne-km (between 31 and 53%), emissions of greenhouse gases are calculated to decrease by 50 to 60% by 2040. This means that the Swedish freight transport sector will not achieve its share of greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to attain the national climate objective of a 70% reduction by 2030. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are forecast to reduce by between 60 and 75%, emissions of sulfur dioxides to reduce by between 41 and 50%, emissions of volatile organic compounds to increase by 8 to 30% and emissions of particulate matter (from exhaust and tyre/road wear) are calculated to increase by between 13 and 33%. Using modal shift policy instruments to achieve greenhouse gas reductions is calculated to attain worse results over time, by 2040 it might even be counterproductive |
| Keywords: | Freight transport; Emissions; Climate goals; Environmental quality objectives; Emission factors; Forecasts; Policy analysis |
| JEL: | O21 O33 Q53 Q54 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2023–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2023_005&r=tre |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Martin, Elliot PhD; Stocker, Adam |
| Abstract: | Transportation Network Companies (TNCs, also known as ridehailing and ridesourcing) have expanded across California over the past decade and changed the way people travel. Using a smartphone, travelers can quickly summon a vehicle from almost anywhere and know what the estimated wait time, travel time, and cost will be before stepping into the vehicle. While TNCs are clearly addressing an unmet need for travelers, their growing popularity has raised a number of policy questions, including if TNCs are shifting people away from public transit and other travel modes (e.g., carshare, walking, biking). |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6rb1j5wb&r=tre |
| By: | Auer, Judith; Link, Steffen; Plötz, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Adequate public charging infrastructure for battery electric trucks (BETs) is crucial for electrifying road freight transport and, thus, curtailing greenhouse gas emissions. Although manufacturer announcements on BET sales targets are promising, many logistic companies still question their technical feasibility due to the limited all-electric range and insufficient public charging infrastructure. Therefore, knowing the attractiveness of truck stop locations and their relevance for ensuring operational schedules is essential to facilitate the coordinated deployment of public charging infrastructure while its profitability is almost pre-secured. This paper aims to characterize current truck stop locations and evaluate possible public charging station locations for BETs via multi-criteria analyses using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data. This study benefits from real-world truck stop location data, including geo-coordinates and occupancy data, and uses several GIS data sources to enhance the data and verify the presence of distinct truck-relevant features. Features may comprise the proximity to the TEN-T highway network or infrastructure availability, such as fueling stations or rest areas. Additionally, correlation and archetypal analysis are applied to better understand truck stops and their feature dependencies. The results demonstrate the high attractiveness of industrial areas with many potential business destinations along the TEN-T network. However, no particular feature determines the attractiveness of truck stop locations, but the distinct feature combination is decisive. The archetypal analysis reveals three extremes that may constitute the backbone of a public German charging infrastructure network: (1) industry hotspots, (2) hosted rest areas or truck stops along the TEN-T network, (3) and public truck parking areas with additional services. Finally, 1, 648 public parking and rest areas in Germany are identified using OpenStreetMaps.org (OSM) data, and their attractiveness for future BET charging infrastructure is evaluated. These results are provided in an interactive HTML-based map. |
| Keywords: | Charging infrastructure site selection, Multi-criteria decision analysis, GIS, Battery electric trucks |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s042023&r=tre |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel; Qian, Xiaodong; Joby, Raina; Xiao, Runhua Ivan |
| Abstract: | This research studies the potential of bikeshare services to bridge the gap between Affordable Housing Communities (AHC) and transit services to improve transport accessibility of the residents. In doing so, the study develops an agent-based simulation optimization modeling (ABM) framework for the optimal design of the bikesharing station network considering improving accessibility as the objective. The study discusses measures of accessibility and uses travel times in a multi-modal network. Focusing on the city of Sacramento, CA, the study gathered information related to affordable housing communities, detailed transit services, demographic information, and other relevant data. This ABM framework is used to run three stages of travel demand modelling: trip generation, trip distribution and mode split to find the travel time differences under the availability of new bikesharing stations. The model is solved with a genetic algorithm approach. The results of the optimization and ABM-based simulation indicate the share of bike and bike & transit trips in the network under different scenarios. Key results indicate that about 60% of the AHCs are within 25-minute active travel time when the number of stations range from 25 to 75, and when the number of stations is increased to 100, most AHCs are within 40 mins of active mode distance and all of them are less than an hour away. In terms of accessibility, for example, having a larger network of stations (e.g., 100) increases by 70% the number of Points of Interest (for work, health, recreation, and other) within a 30-minute travel time. This report then provides some general recommendations for the planning of the bikesharing network considering information about destination choices as well as highlighting the past and current challenges in housing and transit planning. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Affordable housing, bikeshare, transit, accessibility |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9mp4g0xz&r=tre |
| By: | Scora, George; Barth, Matthew; Vu, Alex; Oswald, David |
| Abstract: | In recent years, a number of “Smart Pedal” systems have emerged, both as automotive OEM equipment and as third-party hardware. These “Smart Pedal” systems can be installed in vehicles with the potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions by smoothing a driver’s acceleration patterns, with little effect on travel time or safety. This research evaluates the potential effectiveness of a select “Smart Pedal” system for improving fuel economy and reducing GHG emissions in the Caltrans vehicle fleet. Following a literature review, the SmartPedalTM throttle controller, currently a $299 device that effortlessly attaches to the accelerator pedal, was selected for evaluation. The SmartPedalTM device corrects the accelerator pedal signal for micro accelerations caused by the influence of artifacts in the roadway on the driver’s foot and the accelerator pedal. The SmartPedalTM technology was evaluated using six Caltrans vehicles instrumented with Global Positioning Systems (GPS) enabled Engine Control Unit (ECU) data loggers. ECU and GPS data was collected for a baseline period of vehicle operation without the SmartPedalTM device installed, followed by a period of operation with the SmartPedalTM device installed. For each test vehicle, the two datasets provided comparison data to evaluate the “Smart Pedal” technology. The amount of data in each collection period, in terms of distance, ranged from 548 miles to roughly 2, 800 miles. An average fuel economy increase of up to 6.29% was observed for a vehicle with the "Smart Pedal" technology installed. The payback period for that scenario was evaluated based on the vehicle’s average monthly mileage during the study period and was about 15.76 months. Two of the six vehicles showed a small fuel economy decrease (-0.52% and -1.72%), which suggests that the effect of uncontrolled parameters is significant. This study consisted of real-world operation and the contribution of factors such as changes in payload, number of passengers, driver, accessory usage, etc., is unknown. Despite the limitations of this study, results were largely in-line with larger case studies based on fleet fuel consumption data that showed fuel economy savings in the range of 1.5% to 16.8%. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, fuel economy, GHG, pedal controller, throttle controller, smart pedal, SmartPedal, eco pedal, driver behavior |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9xw8g1n0&r=tre |
| By: | Will, Christian; Zimmermann, Florian; Ensslen, Axel; Fraunholz, Christoph; Jochem, Patrick; Keles, Dogan |
| Abstract: | Growing numbers of plug-in electric vehicles in Europe will have an increasing impact on the electricity system. Using the agent-based simulation model PowerACE for ten electricity markets in Central Europe, we analyze how different charging strategies impact price levels and production- as well as consumption-based carbon emissions in France and Germany. The applied smart charging strategies consider spot market prices and/or real-time production from renewable energy sources. While total European carbon emissions do not change significantly in response to the charging strategy due to the comparatively small energy consumption of the electric vehicle fleet, our results show that all smart charging strategies reduce price levels on the spot market and lower total curtailment of renewables. Here, charging processes optimized according to hourly prices have the strongest effect. Furthermore, smart charging strategies reduce electricity purchasing costs for aggregators by about 10% compared to uncontrolled charging. In addition, the strategies allow aggregators to communicate near-zero allocated emissions for charging vehicles. An aggregator's charging strategy expanding classic electricity cost minimization by limiting total national PEV demand to 10% of available electricity production from renewable energy sources leads to the most favorable results in both metrics, purchasing costs and allocated emissions. Finally, aggregators and plug-in electric vehicle owners would benefit from the availability of national, real-time Guarantees of Origin and the respective scarcity signals for renewable production. |
| Keywords: | Energy system analysis, Electric mobility, Smart charging, Electricity markets, CO2 emissions, Renewable energies |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:69&r=tre |
| By: | Kevin Techer (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies hazardous waste transportation problems. Due to their dangerous nature, the transportation of these waste implies a risk of incident having irreversible consequences on the environment. This problem has lead to a body of legal statutes that monitor the generation, storage and transportation of hazardous waste. Assuming that the transport of hazardous waste is done in a cooperative manner on a transport network, this paper investigates how to share the cost of maintaining and operating such network among the involved agents. We analyze the hazardous transportation problem from the viewpoint of axiomatic analysis. We consider several axioms that are derived from different environmental law principles and provide a characterization of a new allocation rule: the responsibility rule. Then we show that the responsibility rule coincides with the multi-choice Shapley value of an appropriate multi-choice game. |
| Keywords: | Hazardous waste Transportation network Cost allocation Multi-choice games. JEL Codes: C71 Q53 R42, Hazardous waste, Transportation network, Cost allocation, Multi-choice games. JEL Codes: C71, Q53, R42 |
| Date: | 2023–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04099139&r=tre |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné; Mathilde Lebrand; Siobhan Murray; Michele Ruta; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Economic integration of the African continent rests on two pillars: the ratification of an ambitious trade agreement and massive investment in transportation infrastructure. Leveraging a newly created city-level database on African exporters’ transport times and the latest techniques in general equilibrium modelling of international trade, the paper quantifies the impact of greater trade and transport integration for Africa. A pan-African agreement, such as the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), would increase African countries’ exports by an average of 3.4 percent and GDP by 0.6 percent. Additional investments in roads, ports and in land borders, as envisioned by the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), would increase exports by 11.5 percent and GDP by 2.0 percent. Major transport investments are necessary to fully reap the benefits of the AfCFTA. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure;Preferential Trade Agreements;Structural Gravity;General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-14&r=tre |
| By: | Volker, Jamey M.B. Ph.D; Hosseinzade, Reyhane; Handy, Susan L. Ph.D |
| Abstract: | In 2018, pursuant to Senate Bill (SB) 743 (2013), the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the California NaturalResources Agency promulgated regulations and technical guidance that eliminated automobile level of service (LOS) as a transportation impact metric for land development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and replaced it with Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). The authors investigated how local governments have been implementing the LOS-to-VMT shift for land development projects, and how that differs from past practice. They also explored whether local governments monitor the actual VMT impacts from completed land use developments and what methods are available to do so. Their findings indicate that all responding jurisdictions acknowledged the mandatory LOS-to-VMT shift, but were in varying stages ofimplementing the shift. For those jurisdictions that had adopted VMT impact significance thresholds, most adhered closely to OPR’s recommendations. They also mostly tried to use apples-to-apples methods of calculating baseline VMT levels (for setting thresholds) and estimating project-level VMT, often relying on travel demand model outputs for both. However, most jurisdictions gave short shrift to VMT monitoring. Another important aspect of SB 743 implementation is how LOS will continue to be used outside of CEQA. The authors found that jurisdictions uniformly continue to employ LOS outside of CEQA. However, those LOS analyses are not necessarily as comprehensive and expensive as they would have been for CEQA purposes. The authors found a consensus amongst their interviewees that swapping LOS for VMT could streamline development in urban areas. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle miles traveled, VMT estimation, VMT mitigation, VMT monitoring, level of service, CEQA, environmental review |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt01f8m0xn&r=tre |
| By: | Kalee Burns; Julie L. Hotchkiss |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distribution of the gasoline tax burden in the presence of increased electric vehicle adoption. Automobile manufacturers and even some states have ambitious goals to phase out gas-powered cars. However, in spite of these plans, the primary source of automobile infrastructure funding in the United States continues to be gasoline taxes. Less demand for gasoline threatens this source of revenue for maintaining roads and further shifts the burden of the tax toward consumers who can’t afford the still relatively expensive electric vehicles. The analysis here illustrates the fundamental regressivity of the gasoline tax, then simulates the distributional impact of replacing the current gas tax with a lump-sum/income tax with different assessment rules designed to replace revenue generated by the gasoline tax. For example, many states are considering switching from a gas tax to a tax based on miles driven to shore up infrastructure funding. Alternatively, the required revenue could be paid equally across income quartiles or assessed based on income. Not surprisingly, the degree of regressivity of replacing the gasoline tax depends on how the tax is assessed across the income distribution. |
| Keywords: | gas tax; incidence; consumer demand system; income distribution; equity |
| JEL: | H22 Q21 D11 |
| Date: | 2023–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:96275&r=tre |
| By: | Ahm Mehbub Anwar; Abu Toasin Oakil; Abdelrahman Muhsen; Anvita Arora (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus, this study’s key objective is to investigate the underlying factors that drive people to use the metro instead of their current transport modes. |
| Keywords: | Land use -Transport interaction, Spatial economice model, Transit Oriented Development, Urban energy model |
| Date: | 2023–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2022-dp17&r=tre |
| By: | Arnold, Fabian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Lilienkamp, Arne (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Namockel, Nils (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | The transformation of the energy system causes increasing stress on distribution grid components. However, flexible EV charging, if incentivized adequately, can help mitigate this impact by reducing peaks in loads and feed-in. A comprehensive regional analysis is necessary to understand the potential of EV charging ŕexibility for reducing peaks on regional and national levels. To this end, we estimate regional residual demand time series for Germany for the years 2019, 2030 and 2045. We focus on modelling private EV diffusion via sigmoid functions and deriving driving and charging profiles based on micro mobility data. Further, we distinguish two deployment schemes for EV flexibility: (1) all EVs contribute to flattening the national residual load curve; (2) local EVs contribute to flattening regional residual load curves. We find that the residual load curves change structurally as positive and negative peaks in residual demand increase over the years on the regional and national levels. Although the absolute ŕexibility potential of EV home charging increases with the number of vehicles, its marginal utility to reduce load peaks declines. Especially in load-dominated regions, the national deployment of ŕexibility can result in higher regional demand peaks compared to a scenario without charging flexibility. The two approaches of flexibility activation can be contradictory in their effects: While regional incentivization is less efficient in reaching the smoothing in the national residual demand curve, national incentivization can even lead to increased strain on the local level. |
| Keywords: | Flexibility; Electric vehicles; Residual load; Energy transition; Charging profiles |
| JEL: | C61 D47 O33 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2023_004&r=tre |
| By: | Jacobsen, Mark; Sallee, James; Shapiro, Joseph; van Benthem, Arthur A. |
| Abstract: | What is a feasible and efficient policy to regulate air pollution from vehicles? A Pigouvian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of US Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new US vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99 percent, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and that increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, though both reforms have complex effects on inequality. |
| Date: | 2023–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-18&r=tre |