nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2023‒04‒03
eighteen papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  1. Eco-friendly Cooperative Traffic Optimization at Signalized Intersections By Hao, Peng; Oswald, David; Wu, Guoyuan; Barth, Matthew J
  2. Integrating Micromobility with Public Transit: A Case Study of the California Bay Area By Ferguson, Beth; Sanguinetti, Angela
  3. The Relevance of Life-Cycle CO2 Emissions for Vehicle Purchase Decisions: A Stated Choice Experiment for Germany By Michaela V. Gerhardt; Elke D. Kanberger; Andreas Ziegler
  4. Why do Gender Differences in Daily Mobility Behaviours persist among workers? By Nathalie Havet; Caroline Bayart; Patrick Bonnel
  5. Spatial, Social and Data Gaps in On-Demand Mobility Services: Towards a Supply-Oriented MaaS By Ronit Purian; Daniel Polani
  6. Pipelines for a Hydrogen System in California By Cerniauskas, Simonas; Fulton, Lewis; Ogden, Joan
  7. Challenges Facing People with Disabilities in Private Vehicular Transportation in the United States of America By Venkataram, Prashanth S; Flynn, Justin A; Circella, Giovanni; Sperling, Daniel
  8. Future of Aviation: Advancing Aerial Mobility through Technology, Sustainability, and On-Demand Flight By Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan PhD
  9. Carbon Tax in the Shipping Sector: Assessing Economic and Environmental Impacts By Paula Pereda; Andrea Lucchesi, Thais Diniz, Rayan Wolf
  10. Platform Models and Strategic Interaction on a Multi-Agent Transport Network By Jolian McHardy
  11. Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-carbon road transport in Europe By Plötz, Patrick; Wachsmuth, Jakob; Sprei, Frances; Gnann, Till; Speth, Daniel; Neuner, Felix; Link, Steffen
  12. Cost, Footprint, and Reliability Implications of Deploying Hydrogen in Off-grid Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A GIS-assisted Study for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia By Amro Elshurafa; Abdelrahman Muhsen; Frank Felder
  13. Using Transport Activity-Based Model to Simulate the Pandemic By Moez Kilani; Ousmane Diop; Ngagne Diop
  14. Efficiency in European Air Traffic Management -- A Fundamental Analysis of Data, Models, and Methods By Thomas Standfuss; Georg Hirte; Michael Schultz; Hartmut Fricke
  15. Determinants of the social acceptability of Low Emission Zones (LEZ) in France: the case of the future LEZ in Grenoble By Rim Rejeb; Hélène Bouscasse; Sandrine Mathy; Carole Treibich
  16. Measuring the Attractiveness of Trip Destinations: A Study of the Kansai Region By Keisuke Kondo
  17. Is the Physical Infrastructure in Pakistan Enough to Attract Foreign Direct Investment By Shahid, Kunwer Arsalan
  18. Reasons for the Decline of Bicycle Industry in Pakistan By Ahmad, Nadia

  1. By: Hao, Peng; Oswald, David; Wu, Guoyuan; Barth, Matthew J
    Abstract: Surface transportation systems (e.g., arterial roadways with signalized intersections) are inherently inefficient, particularly at higher traffic volumes. In general, both the infrastructure (e.g., traffic signals) and the vehicles operate independently, with little coordination between them. Previous research has shown that implementing strategies that take advantage of infrastructure-tovehicle communication can improve overall mobility and reduce environmental impacts, e.g., the Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) application that takes advantage of communicating signal phase and timing information to the vehicles. In this paper, the authors build upon this past research to develop a new cooperative traffic operation approach that takes advantage of not only infrastructure-to-vehicle communications, but also vehicle-to-infrastructure communications. This effort integrates a dynamic traffic signalization algorithm together with EAD algorithm to achieve even greater traffic efficiency. The research was carried out in a high-fidelity simulation environment and shows upwards of 15% fuel savings and 85% reductions in waiting time. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Cooperative traffic optimization, eco-approach and departure, SUMO, traffic simulation, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication
    Date: 2023–02–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4nd624jd&r=tre
  2. By: Ferguson, Beth; Sanguinetti, Angela
    Abstract: Micromobility is well-suited to address first- and last-mile connectivity with public transit by extending the catchment area around transit stations and bridging gaps in the existing transit network, ultimately facilitating access to jobs and services. However, the uptake of micromobility depends on a variety of factors including environmental design features at and around public transit stations that support or inhibit access. This research covered environmental audits at 18 BART stations to count arrivals, departures, and parked personal and shared micromobility vehicles, an online survey of BART and micromobility users, and interviews with government, industry, and community stakeholders. This research showed that in the California Bay Area, the prevalence of personal micromobility currently dwarfs rates of shared micromobility use, and that includes a burgeoning segment of transit users connecting with their own e-bikes and e-scooters. Successes and challenges were highlighted, and recommendations made for station design, including greater availability of shared micromobility vehicles, more affordable secure parking for personal micromobility vehicles, better signage and wayfinding. Beyond the station proper, there is a need for protected bike lanes and consistent design standards for bike facilities throughout the region. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Micromobility, public transportation, shared mobility, scooter, bike
    Date: 2023–02–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4fm8z1ct&r=tre
  3. By: Michaela V. Gerhardt (University of Kassel); Elke D. Kanberger (University of Kassel); Andreas Ziegler (University of Kassel)
    Abstract: This paper examines the individual preferences for a reduction of life-cycle CO2 emissions in vehicle purchase decisions. The empirical analysis is based on data from a stated choice experiment with more than 1, 100 citizens in Germany that refers to decisions between three types of electric vehicles and a conventional (i.e. gasoline or diesel) vehicle that are characterized by several attributes like purchase price or fuel costs. With respect to CO2 emissions, we specifically examine emissions in vehicle production besides the commonly considered emissions in vehicle use. Our econometric analysis with flexible mixed logit models reveals a strong stated preference for the reduction of CO2 emissions in both vehicle use and production, whereby the estimated willingness to pay for CO2 emission reductions is higher for vehicle production. Furthermore, we find that conventional vehicles are significantly preferred over plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and particularly strongly significantly preferred over extended-range and pure electric vehicles. Surprisingly, environmental attitudes, i.e. environmental awareness and ecological policy identification, have no significant effects on the reduction of CO2 emissions in both vehicle use and production. These results suggest that citizens in Germany with strong environmental identity do not consider reductions of CO2 emissions in vehicle purchase decisions as an important direction for climate protection. Instead, this group rather tends to avoid the purchase of conventional vehicles since environmental attitudes have a significantly positive effect on the stated choice of electric vehicles, whereby this estimated effect is dominated by an ecological policy orientation instead of general environmental awareness. The latter result suggests the strong relevance of the controversial political discussion about the transition to electromobility in Germany. By considering economic preferences, the econometric analysis additionally reveals that individual trust is relevant for the purchase of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
    Keywords: Vehicle purchase decisions, CO2 emissions in vehicle use and production, climate protection, electric vehicles, stated choice experiment, mixed logit models
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202305&r=tre
  4. By: Nathalie Havet (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon); Caroline Bayart (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon); Patrick Bonnel (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Gender is commonly identified as a key explanatory factor for travel behaviour. Since women's role in societal structure has changed in the past few decades, the question arises as to whether the "gender" factor still plays a decisive role in differences in mobility within the working population. The aim of this paper is to extend the research on gendered differences in mobility by providing an in-depth analysis of how the main determinants of daily mobility affect male and female workers differently. Unlike previous research, our econometric models included terms that express the interactions between the explanatory variables (socioeconomic variables and transport mode access) and a dichotomous gender variable, to accurately identify the marginal impact of gender on mobility indicators. Based on the Rhône-Alpes regional household travel survey (2012–2015), which includes France's second largest urban area, the results show that even if gender differences in employment status and access to the private car are eliminated, differences in travel patterns between men and women would still be observed because the two genders do not have identical factor sensitivities. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that authorities have to adopt a gender perspective to ensure that in the future urban mobility policies provide gender equity in the context of the sustainable development of transport networks.
    Keywords: Travel behaviour, Commute distance and time, Gender differences, Gender interactions, Bivariate tobit model, Zero-one inflated beta regression
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03350517&r=tre
  5. By: Ronit Purian; Daniel Polani
    Abstract: After a decade of on-demand mobility services that change spatial behaviors in metropolitan areas, the Shared Autonomous Vehicle (SAV) service is expected to increase traffic congestion and unequal access to transport services. A paradigm of scheduled supply that is aware of demand but not on-demand is proposed, introducing coordination and social and behavioral understanding, urban cognition and empowerment of agents, into a novel informational framework. Daily routines and other patterns of spatial behaviors outline a fundamental demand layer in a supply-oriented paradigm that captures urban dynamics and spatial-temporal behaviors, mostly in groups. Rather than real-time requests and instant responses that reward unplanned actions, and beyond just reservation of travels in timetables, the intention is to capture mobility flows in scheduled travels along the day considering time of day, places, passengers etc. Regulating goal-directed behaviors and caring for service resources and the overall system welfare is proposed to minimize uncertainty, considering the capacity of mobility interactions to hold value, i.e., Motility as a Service (MaaS). The principal-agent problem in the smart city is a problem of collective action among service providers and users that create expectations based on previous actions and reactions in mutual systems. Planned behavior that accounts for service coordination is expected to stabilize excessive rides and traffic load, and to induce a cognitive gain, thus balancing information load and facilitating cognitive effort.
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.03881&r=tre
  6. By: Cerniauskas, Simonas; Fulton, Lewis; Ogden, Joan
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, transportation fuel, hydrogen, transportation infrastructure, pipeline
    Date: 2023–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1z0325v2&r=tre
  7. By: Venkataram, Prashanth S; Flynn, Justin A; Circella, Giovanni; Sperling, Daniel
    Abstract: The majority of people with disabilities in the United States of America (US) are licensed drivers or use transportation modes based on private vehicles. Despite this, people with disabilities, including licensed drivers, still often encounter difficulties that limit their overall mobility and quality of life. Research about the problems with private vehicular modes facing people with disabilities remains sparse. Existing research suggests that some disabilities make driving impossible, while poverty often associated with disability makes owning and modifying vehicles to fit users’ needs unaffordable. People with disabilities who cannot drive or cannot afford to own a vehicle may use rental cars or carsharing services, get rides from friends or family, or use ridehailing services or taxis, but car-oriented land use patterns and the higher costs of modified vehicles together may compromise the availability of these modes for people with disabilities. Better understanding of the challenges that people with disabilities face with these modes and of associated land use issues is critical for new modes & policies to sustainably improve the mobility of people with disabilities.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2023–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1d00w31s&r=tre
  8. By: Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan PhD
    Abstract: Advanced air mobility (AAM) is a broad concept enabling consumers access to air mobility, cargo and package delivery, healthcare applications, and emergency services through an integrated and connected multimodal transportation network. AAM includes local use cases of about a 50-mile radius in rural or urban areas and intraregional use cases of up to approximately 500 miles that occur within or between urban and rural areas. The Future of Aviation Conference: Advancing Aerial Mobility through Technology, Sustainability, and On-Demand Flight was held in person at the San Francisco International Airport from August 2 to 5, 2022. The conference commenced with an AAM 101 workshop hosted by the Community Air Mobility Initiative (CAMI) on August 2nd. The full conference program began on August 3rd. This event advanced key research and policy discussions around environmental impacts, safety, security, equity, multimodal integration, and the role of government.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2023–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt93t0f73m&r=tre
  9. By: Paula Pereda; Andrea Lucchesi, Thais Diniz, Rayan Wolf
    Abstract: We discuss the impact of a carbon tax on the maritime transport sector, which is responsible for approximately 3% of global emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set long-term targets to reduce carbon intensity and achieve carbon neutrality, but the impact of the policies to achieve those targets on the global and local economies must be assessed. We use a global and multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model - Global Trade Analysis Project Energy-Environmental augmented version (GTAP-E) – to evaluate the environmental and economic effectiveness of a carbon tax of $50/tCO2e on international shipping. GTAP-E does not provide emissions data by transport mode and accurately estimating emissions is crucial to proposing a carbon pricing measure. Therefore, we have applied machine-learning techniques to predict the share of international trade transported by sea by sector, origin and destination countries and calculate ship emissions for each bilateral flow by sector. The findings indicate that while the tax considerably reduced emissions from ships, it also had a negative impact on exports and resulted in mixed impacts on GDP, exacerbating existing inequalities across regions. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering various economic and social variables in impact assessments to identify potential trade-offs and synergies between policy objectives.
    Keywords: Carbon Pricing; Carbon Tax; Shipping; Computable General Equilibrium
    JEL: Q52 R48 F17 Q56
    Date: 2023–03–16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2023wpecon4&r=tre
  10. By: Jolian McHardy (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK)
    Abstract: Strategic price interaction on networks with rival and interchangeable services are well-known to produce damaging externalities with which the number of agents acting independently can interact in non-linear ways. We examine how varying the number of independent agents can impact the relative performance of platform models on a transport network whose design can mitigate some of the damaging externalities in the 2-agent setting. We show that increasing the number of agents can preserve or enhance some of the benefits of the platform models under some circumstances but the platform structure, that abates damaging externalities with 2-agents, can constrain beneficial competitive forces with more agents, damaging relative performance.
    Keywords: Platform; Strategic Interaction; Multi-operator; Transport Network; Pricing; Welfare
    JEL: D43 L13 L91 R40
    Date: 2023–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2023007&r=tre
  11. By: Plötz, Patrick; Wachsmuth, Jakob; Sprei, Frances; Gnann, Till; Speth, Daniel; Neuner, Felix; Link, Steffen
    Abstract: Following the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries worldwide have committed themselves to undertaking efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Within the European Union (EU), the recent "Fit for 55" policy package proposes ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies for all sectors as part of the EU's contribution to limiting global warming. Yet, it is unclear whether the proposed policies are sufficient for the EU to limit global warming to 1.5°C and it remains an open policy problem how to translate global temperature targets into sector-specific emission budgets and further into sector-specific policies. Here, we derive GHG budgets for transport in EU27 and obtain GHG mitigation pathways for Europe consistent with 1.5°C global warming. We do not provide a comprehensive assessment of the "Fit for 55" transport package but we discuss the main policies for road transport in light of the GHG emission budgets, their level of ambition, and suggest amendments to these policies as well as improvements to the "Fit for 55" package. Our results suggest that parts of the "Fit for 55" for transport are still not ambitious enough to align with a 1.5°C scenario.
    Keywords: Climate policy, transport emissions, battery electric vehicles
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s022023&r=tre
  12. By: Amro Elshurafa; Abdelrahman Muhsen; Frank Felder (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: We quantify the cost, footprint and reliability implications of using hydrogen in off-grid electric vehicle charging stations (CS) using an optimization model coupled with a geographical information system (GIS) analysis for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We also account for the challenges associated with wind energy deployment as a generation technology for CS within city centers.
    Keywords: Battery Storage, Benefits of electricity trade, Business models, Consumer behavior
    Date: 2023–01–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2022-dp08&r=tre
  13. By: Moez Kilani (ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ousmane Diop (ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngagne Diop (ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale, TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille)
    Abstract: We use an activity-based transport model to simulate the progression of a virus at the regional scale. We analyse several scenarios corresponding to distinct situations and describing how small initial clusters of infected agents expand and reach a pandemic level. We evaluate the effectiveness of some public restrictions and compare the number of infections with respect to the base-case scenario, where no restrictions are in place. We consider the wearing of masks in public transport and/or in some activities (work, leisure and shopping) and the implementation of a lockdown. Our analysis shows that education, including the primary level, is one of the major activities where infections occur. We find that the wearing of masks in transportation only does not yield important impacts. The lockdown is efficient in containing the spread of the virus but, at the same time, significantly increases the length of the wave (factor of two). This is because the number of agents who are susceptible to be infected remains high. Our analysis uses the murdasp tool specifically designed to process the output of transport models and performs the simulation of the pandemic.
    Keywords: Kilani, M. Diop, O. Diop, N. Using Transport Activity-Based activity-transport simulations the dynamic of the pandemic (COVID-19) social and physical distancing, M., Diop, O., N. Using Transport Activity-Based activity-transport simulations, the dynamic of the pandemic (COVID-19), social and physical distancing
    Date: 2023–02–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03946166&r=tre
  14. By: Thomas Standfuss; Georg Hirte; Michael Schultz; Hartmut Fricke
    Abstract: We systematically study cornerstones that must be solved to define an air traffic control benchmarking system based on a Data Envelopment Analysis. Primarily, we examine the appropriate decision-making units, what to consider and what to avoid when choosing inputs and outputs in the case that several countries are included, and how we can identify and deal with outliers, like the Maastricht Service Provider. We argue that Air Navigation Service Providers would be a good choice of decision units within the European context. Based on that, we discuss candidates for DEA inputs and outputs and emphasize that monetary values should be excluded. We, further suggest to use super-efficiency DEA for eliminating outliers. In this context, we compare different DEA approaches and find that standard DEA is performing well.
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2302.07525&r=tre
  15. By: Rim Rejeb; Hélène Bouscasse; Sandrine Mathy; Carole Treibich
    Abstract: Although France is exposed to significant levels of air pollution, it is lagging behind its European neighbors in the implementation of low-emission zones (LEZs). Acceptability issues seem to be central to this delay. The Climate and Resilience Law passed in 2021 introduces the obligation for cities with more than 150, 000 inhabitants to implement a LEZ by the end of 2024. Thirty-three new urban areas in France are thus concerned, including the Grenoble metropolitan area. Using original survey data, this article proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the acceptability of this future LEZ and its determinants. The analysis is based on original data collected through a telephone survey. Using bivariate analysis and binary logit regression, we found a good level of acceptability of the LEZ on average, but with lower levels for individuals directly affected by the traffic restrictions. The results show that acceptability is mainly determined by positive attitudes and individual perceptions of the LEZ and less influenced by socio-demographic characteristics.
    Keywords: Low Emission Zones, Social Acceptability, Econometric Analysis, France
    JEL: Q48 Q52 Q53 R58
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2023-02&r=tre
  16. By: Keisuke Kondo (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry and Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: This study proposes a novel concept of regional attractiveness index based on human mobility flows. Assuming that individuals' mobility choice is based on utility maximization, this study aims to recover the attractiveness of trip destinations by estimating the gravity equation for interregional trip flows. Using data from a Person Trip Survey in the Kansai region of Japan, this study investigates whether different trip purposes (e.g., commuting to office and school, recreational trips, business trips, and returning home) can reveal variations in the attractiveness of trip destinations in a geographical space. This study found that the proposed approach using interregional trip flows can effectively capture the extent to which trip destinations attract people from a region-wide perspective. As real-time human mobility data becomes increasingly available in the age of Big Data, the new index of regional attractiveness is expected to become a key performance indicator for daily monitoring of urban and regional economies.
    Keywords: Regional attractiveness index; Person trip survey; Gravity equation
    JEL: J61 R23 R41
    Date: 2023–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2023-07&r=tre
  17. By: Shahid, Kunwer Arsalan
    Abstract: One suitable way for Pakistan to develop its infrastructure can be attracting FDI in infrastructure development and maintenance. The developing world needs a massive increase in private sector involvement in infrastructure investments. Although after 2000 Pakistan has realized and focused on the opportunity, driven by foreign direct investment, areas that had traditionally been defined as public sector responsibilities benefited from substantial commitments of capital and resources. The World Bank Project Database indicates that an estimated total of 1, 707 private infrastructure projects worth US$458.2 billion were concluded from 1990 to end-1998. Foreign direct investment is the engine behind this development, with foreign investors involved in over 80 percent of transactions. During this period developing countries received an estimated US$138.3 billion in foreign direct investment from these infrastructure investments. Supported by a strong policy framework, private sector financing and operation of infrastructure facilities can result in significant efficiency gains while alleviating budgetary pressures. There is a startling gap between, allegedly, globalization-induced changes in international competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) and recent empirical evidence on the relative importance of determinants of FDI in developing countries. Traditional market-related determinants are still dominant factors. This paper analyzes the role of infrastructure availability in determining the attractiveness of countries for FDI inflows for export-orientation of MNE production. We posit that investments by governments in providing efficient physical infrastructural facilities improve the investment climate for FDI. MNEs may be particularly sensitive to infrastructure availability for locating their investments designed to feed the global, regional or home country markets. E.g. Transport infrastructure, telecommunications infrastructure, information infrastructure, energy availability for countries. The role of infrastructure in explaining the attractiveness for foreign production by MNEs, MNEs’ decision making pertaining to location of product mandates for global or regional markets sourcing is significantly influenced from infrastructure availability considerations. These findings suggest that infrastructure development should become an integral part of the strategy to attract FDI inflows in general, and export-oriented production from MNEs in particular.
    Keywords: FDI
    JEL: E0
    Date: 2022–12–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116559&r=tre
  18. By: Ahmad, Nadia
    Abstract: This study is on “Reasons for the decline of Bicycle Industry of Pakistan”. In this report I have discussed about the major reasons involved in the decline of our bicycle industry and suggestions to make it a viable unit of our country. This research is not to solve the issues but it will really help in highlighting the major issues. Looking at the statistics for the number of bicycles and the production figures for bicycles in quite different countries it is noticeable that the number of bicycles is at its highest in the industrialized countries; where relatively few people ride bicycles and most people drive motor cars. It is also apparent that most developing countries (at least in Africa) are forced to import bicycles, as they do not have any bicycle factories of their own. The bicycle factory in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, for example, which was opened in 1978, can only produce 60% of the components required. It is also noticeable that there are just as many motor cars as bicycles in the world, and that the rate of growth in bicycle production in the developing countries is very high, while production in the industrialized countries is stagnating. One of the reasons why people have to get off and push their bicycles at such an early stage, and that so little can be transported while actually riding the bicycle is that the gearing ratio is much too high for the rural areas in the Third World. Effective demand for bicycles and components is known to be larger in developed countries, taken as a whole, than in other countries. Demand for these products is, however, commonly perceived as potentially greater in developing countries, again taken as a group, than in developed countries. These springs from the following well-known facts: the bicycle is the cheapest to buy and to maintain among existing transport vehicles; the number of vehicles per person is much smaller in developing countries; and about 75% of the world population lives in these countries.
    Keywords: Bicycle Industry
    JEL: M3
    Date: 2023–01–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116553&r=tre

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