nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2022‒11‒21
eleven papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  1. Rural Electric Vehicle Carsharing is Improving Household Mobility and Reducing Reliance on Personal Vehicles By Rodier, Caroline PhD; Harold, Brian
  2. Could spending time in an AV be similar to travelling on a train? Lessons from the literature By Florent Laroche; Stéphanie Souche
  3. Congestion Costs and Scheduling Preferences of Car Commuters in California: Estimates Using Big Data By Jinwon Kim; Jucheol Moon
  4. A nation-wide experiment: fuel tax cuts and almost free public transport for three months in Germany -- Report 4 Third wave results By Allister Loder; Fabienne Cantner; Andrea Cadavid; Markus B. Siewert; Stefan Wurster; Sebastian Goerg; Klaus Bogenberger
  5. On the ratios of urban mobility, Part 1: the HoTer model of travel demand and network flows By Fabien Leurent
  6. Ex-post evaluation of the American Airlines-US Airways merger: a structural approach By Christian Bontemps; Kevin Remmy; Jiangyu Wei
  7. Emission effects of Germany's vehicle taxation: Recent empirical evidence By Flintz, Joschka; Frondel, Manuel; Horvath, Marco; Vance, Colin
  8. From LOS to VMT: Repurposing Impact Fee Programs Since Adoption of SB 743 By Barbour, Elisa
  9. Second-Hand Gentrification: Theory and Evidence from High-Speed Rail Extensions By Gabriel Loumeau; Antonio Russo
  10. The Long and Winding Roads: Roads, Inequality, and Growth in Colombia By Quintero, Luis; Sinisterra, Guillermo
  11. Perspectives of Armenian: Iranian economic relations within Belt and Road Initiative By Grigoryan, Karen; Arpanahi, Ali

  1. By: Rodier, Caroline PhD; Harold, Brian
    Abstract: Households in marginalized areas of rural California contend with difficult transportation challenges resulting from infrequent transit service, limited access to app-based rideshare services, and higher vehicle ownership costs associated with long travel distances. In 2014, researchers at the University of California, Davis partnered with the San Joaquin Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization to engage with stakeholders to understand the challenges facing rural residents and develop solutions for improving mobility while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One outcome of this work was the creation of an electric vehicle (EV) carsharing service known as Míocar. Míocar launched in 2019 and now has 27 vehicles located in eight affordable housing complexes in Tulare and Kern counties. Míocar provides a transportation option that helps to improve the mobility of individuals and households in marginalized communities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing reliance on conventional personal vehicles.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2022–10–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4jn0n6ht&r=tre
  2. By: Florent Laroche (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphanie Souche (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In a fully Autonomous Vehicle (AV), what activities could be performed when travelling to replace driving activity? The ideal would be to do activities similar to those done in a train or at home. This paper reviews the existing literature to compare the activities expected in an AV with findings obtained for trains and cars. It focuses on a selection of 36 papers mainly on transport economics published between 2000 and 2021. The findings show that train users are more multitask than others. They do several activities of which reading and sleeping are the most popular. Car travellers perform fewer activities other than driving except for making phone calls and listening to music. For AVs, the first studies show that future users would be more in the position of a car driver than a train passenger, thereby reducing the benefit of AVs. Finally, the analysis reveals heterogeneity in the definition of activities and imperfect consistency with the characteristics of AVs. We suggest considering physical involvement (hands and eyes), whether deliberate or not, to define an activity. Sleeping becomes an active activity and talking a passive activity.
    Keywords: Autonomous vehicle,Activities,Time use,Multitasking,Working Papers du LAET
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03813529&r=tre
  3. By: Jinwon Kim (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea); Jucheol Moon (Department of Computer Engineering & Computer Science, California State University, Long Beach)
    Abstract: This paper aims to quantify congestion costs and estimate the scheduling utility function for commuters. To do so, we construct California commuters' travel-time profiles, namely, the menu of travel times that each individual will likely face according to alternate trip timing choices. On average, California commuters waste about 5 minutes per morning commute due to congestion. Commuters facing a higher congestion level at the peak hour tend to avoid congestion delays by arriving at an inconvenient edge time. We also discover that for the majority of the commuters in our data, travel-time profiles are much atter than our estimated schedule utility. From this finding, we question the accuracy of the existing bottleneck models in quantifying the economic costs of congestion and the optimal toll to ameliorate congestion.
    Keywords: congestion costs; scheduling preference; commuting; Google Maps; big data; machinelearning
    JEL: R41 R48 C8 C25 H21
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2201&r=tre
  4. By: Allister Loder; Fabienne Cantner; Andrea Cadavid; Markus B. Siewert; Stefan Wurster; Sebastian Goerg; Klaus Bogenberger
    Abstract: In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of measures that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These measures included among others, a nation-wide public transport ticket for 9EUR per month and a fuel tax cut that reduced fuel prices by more than 15%. In transportation policy and travel behavior research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of transport policy instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and an app-based travel diary on a sample 2'263 individuals; for the Munich Study, 919 participants in the survey-and-app group and 425 in the survey-only group have been successfully recruited, while 919 participants have been recruited through a professional panel provider to obtain a representative nation-wide reference group for the three-wave survey. In this fourth report we present the results of the third wave. At the end of the study, all three surveys have been completed by 1'484 participants and 642 participants completed all three surveys and used the travel diary throughout the entire study. Based on our results we conclude that when offering a 49EUR-Ticket as a successor to the 9~EUR-Ticket and a local travel pass for 30EUR/month more than 60% of all 9~EUR-Ticket owners would buy one of the two new travel passes. In other words, a substantial increase in travel pass ownership in Germany can be expected, with our modest estimate being around 20%. With the announcement of the introduction of a successor ticket in 2023 as well as with the prevailing high inflation, this study will continue into the year 2023 to monitor the impact on mobility and daily activities.
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2210.10538&r=tre
  5. By: Fabien Leurent (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Mobility systems in urbanized territories have been featured out in Travel Demand Models by state variables of land-use occupation, trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and network assignment, with emphasis on causal relationships between the variables and on spatial detail for each kind of variables. The article is aimed to provide notional averages, say ratios, for each kind of variables, and to state the causal relationships between the variables as simple analytical formulas between the ratios. This is achieved by going along the classical four steps of travel demand modeling, in a theoretical way for an idealized territory satisfying three postulates of homogeneity: namely, at block level, at link level and of indefinite spatial extension. The said formulas constitute rules of thumb linking the mobility ratios of spatial density of human occupation, trip emission rates, average trip lengths, modal shares, generalized trip cost per length unit, together with traffic variables of speed, flow rate and vehicular density at the link level. The model is stated in eight steps, namely (i) territorial composition, (ii) trip generation, (iii) trip lengths and traffic formation, (iv) quality of service, (v) trip distribution using a gravity model, (vi) modal split by multinomial logit, (vii) traffic laws, (viii) traffic equilibrium. It is followed by a Discussion of the model outreach and limitations. Areas of further research include traffic laws, impact assessment and economic analysis.
    Keywords: Spatial homogeneity,State laws,Four-step travel demand model,Traffic equilibrium Highlights
    Date: 2022–10–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03805030&r=tre
  6. By: Christian Bontemps (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Kevin Remmy (université de Mannheim); Jiangyu Wei (Compass Lexecon)
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate a structural model of the domestic US airline market to analyse the effect of the recent merger between American Airlines and US Airways. Our results show that, between 2011 and 2016, a substantial fuel price drop, in conjunction with changes in consumer preferences towards direct flights, completely rationalises the observed decrease in prices. However, we estimate that, during the same period, more than half of the consumer welfare increase is due, on top of these environmental changes, to the ex-post optimisation of the networks of the newly merged airline and of its competitors.
    Keywords: Merger,Airlines,Network,Structural model,Nested logit,Airfare,Demand,Supply
    Date: 2022–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03800655&r=tre
  7. By: Flintz, Joschka; Frondel, Manuel; Horvath, Marco; Vance, Colin
    Abstract: In 2021, Germany adjusted its vehicle taxation scheme, resulting in a disproportionate increase in the tax burden for vehicles with high carbon emission intensity. This article presents empirical evidence on the impact of Germany's vehicle taxation and its reforms on automobile emissions. To this end, we refer to a series of recent studies by Klier and Linn (2015), Malina (2016), Alberini and Horvath (2021), and Flintz, Frondel, and Horvath (2022) on the reforms of Germany's motor vehicle taxation since 2009, when an emissions-differentiated vehicle tax scheme came into force. The empirical results unanimously indicate that Germany's vehicle taxation does not have the steering effect that is needed to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
    Keywords: Registration tax,circulation tax,greenhouse gas emissions
    JEL: D12 H23
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:978&r=tre
  8. By: Barbour, Elisa
    Abstract: This white paper assesses how cities are modifying transportation impact fees in response to Senate Bill (SB) 743, adopted in 2013 to orient environmental review of transportation impacts of development projects and plans in California to support sustainable development. SB 743 and its implementing guidelines eliminated “level of service” (LOS) standards for automobile traffic delay as an environmental impact to be addressed under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), recommending instead that localities and other lead agencies responsible for CEQA review analyze, and if possible, mitigate impacts on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) instead. As cities proceed to implement SB 743, some are going further than the minimum required to analyze and mitigate for VMT at the development project level. Instead, they are also pursuing “programmatic” approaches, including altering citywide impact fees imposed on developers, to support more systematic analysis and mitigation than is possible at the project level alone. Based on public documents research and interviews with consultants and planners, this paper identifies three basic approaches that cities are taking to design impact fees in conjunction with their policy approaches for addressing SB 743: first, to design impact fee programs that fund VMT-reducing projects, but without employing a VMT “nexus” (the nexus is the basis for identifying impacts to be addressed by the program); second, to employ a VMT nexus for identifying facilities need and cost allocation; and third, to design a fee program that links to systematic CEQA-reviewed VMT analysis in the General Plan and/or other related CEQA-reviewed city wide policy documents. In this latter approach, cities may or may not design their fee program to fund VMT-reducing projects; indeed, this approach may help facilitate a more traditional, LOS-based fee program. This outcome can happen if a city analyzes VMT systematically for the General Plan, and then adopts a “statement of overriding considerations” under CEQA, which allows for development projects to “tier” off the programmatic environmental review so as to avoid the need for conducting cumulative VMT impacts analysis. This approach may facilitate more systematic integration of VMT and LOS analysis at the citywide level, but it does not support SB 743 goals for supporting VMT-reducing projects and programs. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Law, Senate Bill 743, environmental review, CEQA, transportation impact fees, VMT reduction, sustainable transportation
    Date: 2022–11–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt23m9b31s&r=tre
  9. By: Gabriel Loumeau; Antonio Russo
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether and how gentrification spreads along intercity transport connections. We consider a model with heterogeneous individuals populating a primary and a secondary city, with commuting within and between cities. By reducing the cost of intercity commuting, the HSR connection induces migration by skilled individuals towards the secondary city. Therefore, house prices rise in the secondary city, and unskilled individuals are pushed to its periphery. We call this effect second-hand gentrification. We confirm these predictions using the 2017 expansion of the French HSR network from Paris to Bordeaux and Rennes. We find that the HSR connection made skilled Parisians more likely to move to Bordeaux and Rennes, that these individuals locate over-proportionally in central locations of such cities, and that housing prices there consequently increased by €400 per m2 (i.e., 7%). Remarkably, we also find a negative effect on prices in Paris.
    Keywords: gentrification, high speed rail, housing market, Intercity travel
    JEL: R23 R11 R41
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9992&r=tre
  10. By: Quintero, Luis; Sinisterra, Guillermo
    Abstract: We measure the impact on economic performance and land ownership inequality in municipalities of a large scale program of road network expansions and improvements that occurred in Colombia between 1993 to 2012. The treatment is measured as improvements in market access to incorporate network effects. We find that roads improve market access, and this increases both municipality GDP and land ownership inequality. We address endogeneity concerns by using two instruments. First, using detailed geographical information we create a least cost path counterfactual for the Colombian road networks linking important cities in 1938. We use this least cost path to calculate a counterfactual market access measure that is determined by exogenous topographic accidents. Next, we build an alternative market access measure which focuses on semi-random market access changes stemming from increased exposure to markets of smaller cities which were not determinant in defining the road network shape.
    Keywords: Desarrollo, Infraestructura, Investigación socioeconómica, Vialidad,
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:1964&r=tre
  11. By: Grigoryan, Karen; Arpanahi, Ali
    Abstract: Armenia-Iran North South Transport corridor is vital for Iran and Armenia and also for all parties involved. Recently, India increased its interest in Armenia and would like to see the INSTC passing through the Armenian territories, keeping in mind that Armenia is also the only country in the EAEU that has a land border with Iran. Taking into account Iran's desire to become a full member of the EAEU in the future, as well as India's interest in the EAEU structure and possible future membership, Armenia's chances of joining regional trade projects would be high. North South Transport Corridor route via India, Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Russia. This route is 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the current traditional route. A country with a small domestic market like Armenia, of course, needs to expand its economic and trade ties with other countries in the world. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative can provide such an opportunity. An opportunity will also be created for the development of the Armenian transport infrastructure. Armenia aimed to construct the "North-South" transport road, 550-km long, to facilitate communication with Iran and Georgia and beyond.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative,Armenia,Iran,China,India,trade,transport infrastructure,Silk RoadRoute
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:20228&r=tre

This nep-tre issue is ©2022 by Erik Teodoor Verhoef. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.