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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Burke, Andrew; Miller, Marshall; Sinha, Anish; Fulton, Lewis |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economics of various types and classes of medium-duty and heavy-duty battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles relative to the corresponding diesel-engine powered vehicle for 2020-2040. The study includes: large passenger vans, class 3 city delivery vans, class 4 step city delivery trucks, class 6 box trucks, class 7 box trucks, class 8 box trucks, city transit buses, long haul tractor trailer trucks, city short haul tractor trailer delivery trucks, inter-city buses, and HD pickup trucks. Typical designs were formulated for each vehicle type in terms of its road driving and load characteristics and powertrain and energy storage components. The performance and energy consumption of the electrified trucks were simulated for appropriate driving cycles using the ADVISOR simulation program. The vehicle design characteristics were varied over 2020-2040 to reflect expected technology improvements. The study then focused on estimating the initial cost and total cost of ownership (TCO) for each vehicle type over the initial 5-year period and the 15-year lifetime and calculating payback periods. Calculations were done for 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. The analysis particularly focuses on 2025 and 2030 since these are the most relevant years for initial market penetration. For both battery and fuel cell vehicles, thanks to technology cost reductions, the initial cost generally decreases markedly in the period 2020-2030 and more modestly for 2030-2040. Assuming fairly constant electric prices, declining hydrogen prices, and slowly rising diesel prices, TCOs for the various electrified truck types typically become less than that of the corresponding diesel truck before the initial cost of the electrified trucks gets close to that for the diesel truck. For most battery-electric truck types, TCO competitiveness occurs by 2025. For that year, the payback time for most truck types is 4-6 years and is less than 4 years by 2030. Fuel cell vehicles take longer to pay back due mainly to hydrogen fuel costs remaining above diesel prices on an energy basis. Fuel cell truck payback times of 3-5 years by 2030 can be achieved if the cost of hydrogen in that year is reduced below $7/kg. Fuel cell buses have payback times of less than one year in 2030. By 2030, the purchase cost of most types of both battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks is close to that of the corresponding diesel vehicle and TCOs are competitive as long as battery costs and fuel cell costs drop per our expectations along with moderate electricity and hydrogen costs. The cost sensitivity results indicated these conclusions were not significantly changed by reasonable variations in the major cost inputs (battery, fuel cell, hydrogen, electricity and diesel fuel) assumed in the economic analyses. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1g89p8dn&r= |
| By: | Mohiuddin, Hossain; Fitch, Dillon; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Bike-share services provide an affordable and environmentally sustainable transportation option. Research has shown that bike-share use can reduce car dependence and facilitate access to public transit. Expanding the use of these services can help cities meet environmental goals and, if done right, better serve transportation-disadvantaged residents. Researchers at the University of California, Davis surveyed households and bike-share users in the Sacramento region and used both behavioral modeling and market segmentation approaches to identify opportunities for increasing demand while improving access for low-income groups. The results can inform cities’ efforts to expand bike-share services. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycles, Market segmented groups, Surveys, Transportation disadvantaged persons, Travel behavior, Vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3qw7724j&r= |
| By: | Luttmann, Alexander; Gaggero, Alberto A |
| Abstract: | We offer a comprehensive empirical study on hidden-city ticketing (HCT), a pricing phenomenon in the airline industry that occurs when the fare for a nonstop trip from A to B is more expensive than a connecting trip from A to B and B to C. Exploiting a unique panel of over 772 thousand fares for flights departing between October 1st, 2019 and February 29th, 2020, we find that HCT depends on route competition (both on A-B and A-C routes), largely occurs in the last week to departure, and primarily occurs on carriers that operate large hub-and-spoke networks (e.g., American, Delta, and United). |
| Keywords: | advance-purchase, airline pricing, competition, hidden-city ticketing, price discrimination. |
| JEL: | D40 L11 L13 L93 |
| Date: | 2022–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113960&r= |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus |
| Abstract: | Workers generally commute on a daily basis, so we model commuting as a repeated game. The folk theorem implies that for sufficiently large discount factors, the repeated commuting game has as a Nash equilibrium any feasible strategy that is uniformly better than the minimax strategy payoff for a commuter in the one shot game, repeated over the infinite horizon. This includes the efficient equilibria. An example where the efficient payoffs strictly dominate the one shot Nash equilibrium payoffs is provided. Our conclusions pose a challenge to congestion pricing in that equilibrium selection could be at least as effective in improving welfare. We examine evidence from St. Louis to determine what equilibrium strategies are actually played in the repeated commuting game. |
| Keywords: | Repeated game; Nash equilibrium; Commuting; Folk theorem |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2022–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113862&r= |
| By: | Yu, Lamont Bo (University of Macau); Tran, Trang My (Monash University); Lee, Wang-Sheng (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | China’s Belt and Road Initiative was introduced in 2013 to revitalise the Silk Road and promote economic development and integration. This paper investigates the economic effects of the opening of the only high-speed rail (HSR) line in northwest China which connects China’s northwestern provinces along this Silk Road land route. We use a recently developed machine-learning extended nightlight data series from 2000 to 2019 and employ the ridge augmented synthetic control method (Ben-Michael et al., 2021) to assess the effects of the HSR line connection on economic activity along this Silk Road land route. We further propose an algorithm that helps automate the donor pool selection process while ensuring optimal pre-treatment fitness. Our results show that there are winners and losers from the opening of the Lanzhou–Urumqi HSR line. While there is some indication of the role that HSR can help play in making progress towards breaking through the Hu Huanyong Line, a geographical demarcation in China that is of vast economic significance, not all counties benefited from the opening of the HSR line. |
| Keywords: | high-speed railway, augmented synthetic control, Hu Huanyong Line |
| JEL: | O22 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15454&r= |
| By: | Schöne, Andreas; Kunz-Kaltenhäuser, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Track access charges are the main driver of infrastructure costs for rail operators in the rail transport sector, accounting for up to 88 percent of costs. This paper analyzes track access charges of 28 EU countries with the respective trajectories of the company forms employing panel regressions to unbalanced panel data for the period 2011 to 2019. As a result, a fundamental correlation between company forms and track access charges could be determined. Starting from a vertically integrated company, massive cost advantages could be identified for unbundled and partially privatized company forms by avoiding efficiency-impeding behavior. The results shed light on the European railroad packages and their national implementation. |
| Keywords: | Track Access Charges,Railroad Sector,Institutional Quality,Transportation,Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | L11 L14 L42 L51 L52 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:164&r= |
| By: | Joshua Angrist; Guthrie Gray-Lobe; Clemence M. Idoux; Parag A. Pathak |
| Abstract: | School assignment in Boston and New York City came to national attention in the 1970s as courts across the country tried to integrate schools. Today, district-wide choice allows Boston and New York students to enroll far from home, perhaps enhancing integration. Urban school transportation is increasingly costly, however, and has unclear integration and education consequences. We estimate the causal effects of non-neighborhood school enrollment and school travel on integration, achievement, and college enrollment using an identification strategy that exploits partly-random assignment in the Boston and New York school matches. Instrumental variables estimates suggest distance and travel boost integration for those who choose to travel, but have little or no effect on test scores and college attendance. We argue that small effects on educational outcomes reflect modest effects of distance and travel on school quality as measured by value-added. |
| JEL: | D47 I20 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30308&r= |