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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Hannes Wallimann; Kevin Bl\"attler; Widar von Arx |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the demand effects of lower public transport fares in Geneva, an urban area in Switzerland. Considering a unique sample based on transport companies' annual reports, we find that, when reducing the costs of annual season tickets, day tickets and short-distance tickets (by up to 29%, 6% and 20%, respectively), demand increases by, on average, about 13%. However, we also show that the effect of the policy intervention did not occur immediately after the price reduction. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to show how the synthetic control method (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003, Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller, 2010) can be used to assess such (for policy-makers) important price reduction effects in urban public transport. To assess the demand effects, we propose an aggregate metric that inherits extensions of networks, namely passenger trips per vehicle kilometre. Therefore, we can isolate the impact of price reductions, ensuring that companies' network extensions do not affect estimators of interest. In addition, we show how to investigate the robustness of results in similar settings using recent statistical methods and different study designs. Finally, as far as we know, it is the first causal estimate of price reduction on urban public transport initiated by direct democracy. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.14613&r= |
| By: | Felipe Gonzalez (GeePs - Laboratoire Génie électrique et électronique de Paris - CentraleSupélec - SU - Sorbonne Université - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Petit (GeePs - Laboratoire Génie électrique et électronique de Paris - CentraleSupélec - SU - Sorbonne Université - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Yannick Perez (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03420072&r= |
| By: | Cabras, Stefano; Sunhe, Flor |
| Abstract: | This work focuses on predicting metro passenger flow at Beijing Metro stations and assessing uncertainty using a Bayesian Spatio-temporal model. Forecasting is essential for Metro operation management, such as automatically adjusting train operation diagrams or crowd regulation planning measures. Different from another approach, the proposed model can provide prediction uncertainty conditionally on available data, a critical feature that makes this algorithm different from usual machine learning prediction algorithms. The Bayesian Spatio-temporal model for areal Poisson counts includes random effects for stations and days. The fitted model on a test set provides a prediction accuracy that meets the standards of the Beijing Metro enterprise. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Modelling; Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation; Spatio-Temporal Modelling; Poisson Counts |
| Date: | 2021–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:33787&r= |
| By: | Chiara Criscuolo; Peter Gal; Timo Leidecker; Francesco Losma; Giuseppe Nicoletti |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the sudden adoption of telework in the wake of the COVID 19 pandemic, the Global Forum on Productivity (GFP) undertook an online survey among managers and workers in 25 countries about their experience and expectations, with a particular focus on productivity and well-being. This paper presents analysis and results from this endeavour. It finds that managers and workers had an overall positive assessment from teleworking both for firm performance and for individual well-being, and wish to increase substantially the share of regular teleworkers from pre-crisis levels. Respondents, on average, find that the ideal amount of telework is around 2-3 days per week, in line with other recent evidence and with the idea that the benefits (e.g., less commuting, fewer distractions) and costs (e.g., impaired communication and knowledge flows) need to be balanced at an intermediate level of telework intensity. To meet the challenges of this “hybrid” working mode, as the survey finds, further changes from management are needed, such as the co-ordination of schedules to encourage a sufficient degree of in-person interaction, and further investment in ICT tools and skills as well as more soft skills to master online communication. |
| Keywords: | productivity, survey, telework, well-being, working from home |
| JEL: | D24 M1 O3 |
| Date: | 2021–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaac:31-en&r= |